UPDATE INT

The way INT is doing the spin off is very interesting and definitely huge cost savings.

For the exact figures on how many shares of Ortsbo for shares of INT and other metrics, we will have to wait for the proxy to get the exact figure and the date of record.

But what i am the most surprised is the fact that INT did not crossed over the 1$ mark with a user count of 100M. Many will argue that Google Analytic is not the best to give exact figures what personnally i use it and it is really giving interesting stats. By using Google you know where your users come from (country) and from which site. That is a highly important thing to consider especially in marketing.

So the most important thing is to use always the same metrics reporting program. By doing that, we know for this example that there is a 167% increase since the last publication of stats. If true value was 0,54 (end of november value) then you must agree that value is now 0,54 * 167% = 1,54$.
That being the case we now have a great buying opportunity with a really low downside (risk reward).

One thing is sure: the coming weeks will be also very exciting.

UPDATE DRL BPOP DAN

After the first (almost) 60 dyas of the year here is an update about the above stocks:

DRL: good results in Q4 2011 should be the same for Q1 2012. Has been confirmed a CCC credit rating by Finch with a favorable outlook. This will help. Still 3,4M shares are shorted so the next results if good could result in a short squeeze. I expect a 3,75$ share price end of 2012.

BPOP: Results ok in Q4 2011 but i expect a very good Q1 2012. BPOP is the leading bank in Puerto Rico and results should improve during 2012. 15M shares have been shorted and could be a game changer if results for Q1 2012 are surprising. Recently options calls have been on the rise and could mean the start of a new leg up for BPOP. I expect a 5,75$ share price end of 2012

DAN: Still the leader in my picks for the past 3 years. From 1,27$ to 16$ it is a 1200% increase. NOT BAD AT ALL !. I still expect some improvement in the car business and the fact that DAN has most car manufacturers as customers, it is avoiding any huge sale decrease due to Europe. I expect a 24$ share price by end of 2012.

UPDATE INT

Pure speculation here but if it is still halted tomorrow, it could mean that they were awaiting the final setlement date for all of thursday transaction. Surprisingly, the OTC is still allowing trades. (if you want to trade today, you can do it. Just call your broker and ask them to do the transaction on the other platform being otc. They may say no at first, but if they have the proper platform bridge they will assist you in selling or buying on the otc under the ITMTF ticker symbol as it is the same company)
It also could mean a record date of February 23rd (would be surprising) or moving to TSX as of march 1st.
In any case, the news are to be highly important as INT requested the halt, they had to get an extension approved by the exchange and IMHO it has absolutely nothing to do with Synchronica news this morning or Myriad news of last week. This MUST be highly significant and material to the company to get that kind of exception.
My guess: new partner on board that will generate great revenues for ORTSBO and this BEFORE the spin off creating a higher value for ORTSBO and INT.
Based upon social media valuation company value is based upon revenues and number of users. 100M users without any revenues is less interesting than 50M users with 25M$ in revenues ( roughly 0,50 cents per user per year) and again based upon actual valuation it could mean that INT (including Ortsbo) would be easily valued at 1,25B$ or 4$ per share.
Again PURE SPECULATION here but we never know what even a small kick at annual revenues could generate for INT.

UPDATE INT

Intertainment Media Inc : Could this be the birth of a new star?

Since a year now,(and more recently)  INT has become one of the most interesting stocks to watch on the market and there are so many things happening right now with INT that I think it is the right time to focus on what is really Intertainment Media Inc and really what are you exactly buying when you invest in INT.

If you are a penny flipper, you can stop reading now as you may not be interested in this investment opportunity but if you read, you may probably think about it twice before reselling for a penny or two!

INT is describing itself on their web site as:  ‘’We help brands engage by developing, nurturing, and investing in technologies’’ and based upon that statement it would be a mistake to only see INT as being Orstbo even if their recent great run-up from 0,46 to 0,83 in a matter of days sounds exciting.

But that may not be the end of this run up when you carefully look at what is INT and what it may have in store for us investors:

1)      First and fore most Orstbo that should be spun off in the coming months. This translator in more than 50 languages is a beauty to see in action. INT have produced many exciting opportunities over the last 3-6 months to display the incredible value of Ortsbo and more are coming. If you had the chance to assist live to one of these events in your OWN native language, it was phenomenal and almost error free. Sure there will still be some hiccup, as translation is never perfect even when done by human beings. Look at some import products from Asia and if you read (and try to understand) the French translation you could be in for major surprises.

In my opinion, the internal value of Orstbo has now grown over the total value of INT explaining the need to spin it out. The Orstbo value will also be determined by its ability to generate money but we should not forget that its principal value is in text translation and this could be added to so many different products and social media that it would take forever simply to list them all. But some of them are Facebook, Twitter, strategic relationship with Variety in streaming live events and many more.

Orstbo was at one point the 3^rd most popular downloaded application  at Apple Itune Store and is available to PC and Mac computers, mobile devices as well as all major search engine instant messaging chat platforms Microsoft, Google and Yahoo! along with Facebook, iChat, AIM, ICQ, Gadu-Gadu, Ovi, Lotus Sametime, LiveJournal and Tencent QQ and QQ International, China’s largest chat platforms and Twitter. (more info available at Ortsbo.com)

Orstbo had 20M users in October 2011 and 40M users in November 2011. Shall we extrapolate for December and January? Are 100M users possible? Even if I think it is a bit high and it is most probably around 75M users, it would still be a great achievement. Think about that: it is a lot of new users in a very short period of time and I would guess that total minutes spent is also on exponential rise. In my opinion, the country that will have the largest user base will be Asia and most especially China. Could you imagine being able to chat with someone in China using your own native language? That is truly incredible.

So, in my opinion, Orstbo development is done. Ortsbo is now ready to go on its own with its own management team and employees supervised by INT. At what price: I would think about 375M$ if user base is now 75M users and 500M$ is user base is over 100M$ (average price of 5$ per user). For comparison only, Facebook have 800M users and is valued at 60B$ to 100B$ for a value around 100$ per user. We also have to take into account that almost 37% of all ads in this internet world are going throughout Facebook and Orstbo is far far behind (at this time). That progression in user base is faster even than Facebook but we cannot compare Facebook with Orstbo as they serve 2 different purposes. One thing is sure, a first class translator plug in could easily work hand in hand with all our actual and future social media applications.

So. can we use same metrics than Facebook: I do not think so unless Ortsbo start significantly produce $ per user minutes or $ per user that would be comparable. BUT if Orstbo was to generate only 0,10 per user per month that would lead to a 10M$ monthly revenues or 125M$ per year. That is very very impressive and this would lead to a 1B$ value based only on those revenues.

2)   Ad Taffy:  Here are some examples of Ad Taffy Technoligies (from Ad Taffy web site):Ad Taffy is a location-aware display ad product featuring IP-based geo-location and click-to-call functionality. The units come in two formats. One is a click-to-locate rich media ad unit that generates a pop-up map where users can browse through the nearest brand locations to them (found using an IP geo-locator). The second is a static display ad with click-to-call functionality, activated when the user punches their phone number into the ad’s information field. When the user inputs their mobile or landline number, it connects their phone to the service provider’s landline, immediately establishing a connection. The format has obvious use for local service providers, but it is currently being used in the political arena by Brian Storseth, the incumbent for Westlock-St.Paul, who recently implemented a “Click To Call Me” display ad to connect his constituents with volunteers and a mapping function to call up nearby polling stations. The strategy provides an extra level of connectivity between him and constituents, Storseth said in a release.The Ad Taffy technology is ideal for someone like Storseth because it localizes and simplifies traditional web search, Brad Parry, CMO, Intertainment Media tells MiC. “If you were trying to find a local dealer from a traditional web ad, it would take you anywhere from 8 to 12 clicks to find that local dealer,” says Parry. “What our technology does is it finds your IP address automatically, pulls up a map that showcases where you are and all the retail service provider locations around you in just one click.”

So the value of Ad Taffy is solely based upon the number of company that will pay to use the advertising module. At this time definitely hard to evaluate as it is still in test mode until mid-2012. The demo on Ad Taffy site is impressive and if final results are like the one show, it will be a success.

3)      Itibiti / Knctr: This could be the next leader for INT. Imagine a platform where all your social media is interconnected. Very interesting and still with a growing number of customers and users. We have not seen new data relating to users and minutes spent  recently but I assume they are still working hard to increase the perceived value of the product. Growth of Knctr will not be compared to Ortsbo but I think it could be well received by users all around the globe. The interface is nice and you can even call in North America without charges. Real value of Knctr will also depend of the number of advertisers.

4)      Investment in Shiny Ads: The latest investment form INT. Shiny adds is directed toward the smaller advertisers and I think it could be easily attached to Orstbo. Could be very interesting on the long term.

5)      Investment in Active ImageNation (Cap That) still on a waiting list for the beta test.

6)      Lexifone communication systems: How about talking in your native language and being translated into the same number of countries than Ortsbo?  Dream?  Most probably not and even if the product is not totally perfect at this time, when that product become almost error free, well Ortsbo would then be a totally different software and attract a lot more customers.

7)      Investment in China Green Channel:  This statement by itself explain the value of this investment (from last quarter MD&A): ‘’The Company and CGCI will work together to bring Ortsbo and other Intertainment software applications to the Chinese market, utilizing CGCI’s media relationships in China’’

I hope you see the value in here as even if accounting value is hard to define, the long term effect on Ortsbo and other INT products is a major advantage. Where is the most populated area in the world : China. Who needs the most a translator plug in: China. Need I say more ??

8)      SaaS Technologies inc: Interesting and again could be linked to other INT divisions. Here is a description of SaAS: SaaS Technologies Inc. develops data exchange manager tools. It also offers data exchange manager custom modification, custom database design, and custom data transfer services. The company’s tool enables transfer data from any data source to another, as well as users to use its custom designed templates to increase speed for database platforms. It offers its tools as software as a service applications. The company accepts online orders.

9)      Deal Frenzy: Simply enter your email address and where you live and every morning you get the deal of the day email. It may not be the deal you were looking for, but it is a beginning. It will take some time to attract new advertisers and customers and again value is difficult to evaluate.

10)   Commobility: Another very interesting division. Commobility Inc. develops mobile software and key applications in real time semantic search, location based mobile video search and real-time communication platforms, and large scale mobile messaging and service delivery platforms. This division again could be integrated to Ortsbo and Knctr easily.

There are so many projects actually on INT plate that it is easy to lose track of all investments that INT are making right now. That company want to become the leader in ‘incubating’ new technologies and they are on track to achieve that at a really high pace.

It is easy to understand that with all those projects, Ortsbo NEED to be spun off to allow that great program to grow even faster.

So what is the real value of INT?

Ortsbo: If it has already achieved 100M users then estimate the value in the range of 500M$. Remember that the more it will be used, the greater will be the user number. That valuation does not take into account any add-ons or plug in that could be easily attached to Ortsbo but my impression is that Ortsbo will be combined with some other INT division to generate a lot more revenue per user per month and this could come by adding Adtaffy + Deal Frenzy and commobility to offer a highly personalize ad’s generation system. Imagine getting your own personalized ad’s that could differ depending where you are located.

Net equity in INT is around 28M$. Cash flow burning rate of 3,4M$ per quarter and 21M$ on hand so no liquidity problem.

There is still around 55M warrants and options that could dilute INT share furthermore if all investments are confirmed.

One of the worry could be the value of INT after the spinoff of Ortsbo but INT has confirmed that they will retain a significant portion of the new company and will pay a dividend of up to 30% to shareholders at the record date that will be set at the same time that the announcement. That dividend will be paid in shares of new company and will most probably make the difference in the share value of INT once deal is completed. With actual market in regard of social media, I would not be surprised to see shares of the new company rise rapidly and at the same time, shares of INT should continue to rise as they will be able to present the real net value of Ortsbo as an investment.

My best guestimate for INT value would be between 500M$ and 550M$ if Ortsbo users are over 100M and between 400M$ and 450M$ if between 75M and 100M users.

As usual you should never invest more than you can afford to lose and there is never anything wrong to take some profit off the table when occasion present itself. I still believe that INT will be very interesting to watch for the coming weeks as they definitely have major winners in their portfolio. If Mr Lucatch and his team are able to do for one other division what they have already done for Ortsbo, well this could very well be the birth of a great star.

François

ALERT INT

INT has been halted for one of the rare time in it's history and it is certainly not only to update the user numbers.....

What we may find out will be the details and the date of record for the coming ORTSBO IPO.

Remember that it has been mentionned that it will have to be approved by shareholders before getting into effect so i presume that the next agm will definitely contain in it's proxy all the details to approve or reject hte IPO and the conditions.

INT is already the major talk of town in bulletin boards and this only after about 1 hours of the stock being halted.

Guess what: INT will be the number 1 company talked about this week-end. Many will dream about $$$ but nobody will know for sure until we get ALL the details.

This company actually is worth between 450-500M$ based upon an IPO of 210M$ for Ortsbo. Do the math: if ORTSBO get an initial offering higer, then INT will be worth some more.

François

UPDATE Market

What a strange morning today. Looks like Greece is hurting north american markets a bit but the real question is: How would Greece affect your portfolio?

Banks: If they have no exposure to Greece then it is pannic selling

Automobile sector: Yes if recession worsen in Europe, then it will be affected

For many specific stocks like INT the change in their fundamentals does not come from Greece...So you pannic, you sell then you may be ending up loosing UNLESS it was to remove some gain from the table.

Get ready anyways for a very interesting monday.

ALERT INT

Another transaction for INT today where INT will now have a partnership with Syncronica. That means that Orstbo could be preloaded on many mobile devices. Syncronica has over 100 device manufacturer and mobile operator.

With this partnership, INT could be hitting the major leagues from now on and that by itself could dramatically change the value of Ortsbo IPO.

On the other hand, shares suffered a bit today but INT is still on an explosive pattern. Would that last deal not being liked by the markets, volume would have been a lot higher today with a drop much heavier than a mere 2 cents. That does not mean that tomorrow may not be another down day but i would think that INT is very stable and still within the right parameters for growth.

INT has been very silent since last announcement about raising the dividend up to 30% of Ortsbo pre-money and i suspect that they are actually in a forced silence.

Anytime you are to issue an IPO you have a certain black out period where you cannot issue public comments that could be seen as promotion for the company or it's product.

(from Wikipedia)

There are two time windows commonly referred to as "quiet periods" during an IPO's history. The first and the one linked above is the period of time following the filing of the company's S-1 but before SEC staff declare the registration statement effective. During this time, issuers, company insiders, analysts, and other parties are legally restricted in their ability to discuss or promote the upcoming IPO (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2005).

So this could explain the reason why it is excessively quiet about Ortsbo users number and mobile user numbers. If this is the case, expect a number of great NR following SEC approval for listing.

At this moment it is difficult to know when INT will file for an IPO but it had already announced their intentions and some of the parameters. As of Feb 3rd, INT has not officially filed for an IPO and you can track it at this adress:

http://www.hoovers.com/ipo-central/ipo-filings/100004162-1.html

The last user number update was on november 1st 2011 and we are now at about the 90 days mark.

There is 2 possibilities about this: either numbers have not continued to climb as rapidly, they have been forced into quiet mode since that date or they are in negociation to be acquired.

It looks like the first option is almost impossible with all the exposure INT got since that time so i would likely tend to believe that it is option #2 or option #3.

That being the case, 90 days would expire about in 5-10 days if we take into account holiday period. So i am now expecting full disclosure of users, profitability and all other important data in the coming days.

Also interesting to note that an insider sold about 60,000 shares 2 days ago but guess what: when you look at the exact options number that were excercised, you will find that 300,000 were bought and if you make the calculation, you will find that the quantity sold was covering the total amount needed to pay for his options and income tax related to his gains. So to me it is indicating something is coming in the most favorable way.

In all of those scenarios possible, remember that an IPO is coming for an unknow value but no less than 210M$ and a dividend up to 30% meaning up to 63M$ being close to 0,50 cents per share leaving a risk to reward ratio very very low. The downside for INT is around 0,25 and the upside is only limited by it's IPO and the details of the offer that will come rapidly.

I am not nervous about the last couple of days where INT has lost a bit of steam and some pennies and i would be more nervous about thinking to get into INT on the next 0,60 or less price tag.

As always never invest more than you can afford to lose and nobody ever went bankrupt by taking a profit.

Also note that i should be posting an update about INT very soon whenever i get clarification on some of the items that i will be reporting in that update.

ALERT INT

Since 2 days, volume and price has increased incredibly for INT.

The stock has achieve today 0,84 and incredible run from the 0,46 of 3 weeks ago.

Now, is this the storm or only the beginning of the great leg up leading up to the IPO announce?

Well, i think INT is getting back to where it belongs nad it is definitely not under 1$.

Today we have seen so far a lot of trades coming from day traders and penny flippers and that is ok. Let see if it will close at the high of the day or if it will retrace to 0,76 to 0,78.

If it was to close at 0,83 to 0,85 range it could very well mean that monday will be the real storm with volume well over 10M shares.