ALERT INT

Another transaction for INT today where INT will now have a partnership with Syncronica. That means that Orstbo could be preloaded on many mobile devices. Syncronica has over 100 device manufacturer and mobile operator.

With this partnership, INT could be hitting the major leagues from now on and that by itself could dramatically change the value of Ortsbo IPO.

On the other hand, shares suffered a bit today but INT is still on an explosive pattern. Would that last deal not being liked by the markets, volume would have been a lot higher today with a drop much heavier than a mere 2 cents. That does not mean that tomorrow may not be another down day but i would think that INT is very stable and still within the right parameters for growth.

INT has been very silent since last announcement about raising the dividend up to 30% of Ortsbo pre-money and i suspect that they are actually in a forced silence.

Anytime you are to issue an IPO you have a certain black out period where you cannot issue public comments that could be seen as promotion for the company or it's product.

(from Wikipedia)

There are two time windows commonly referred to as "quiet periods" during an IPO's history. The first and the one linked above is the period of time following the filing of the company's S-1 but before SEC staff declare the registration statement effective. During this time, issuers, company insiders, analysts, and other parties are legally restricted in their ability to discuss or promote the upcoming IPO (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2005).

So this could explain the reason why it is excessively quiet about Ortsbo users number and mobile user numbers. If this is the case, expect a number of great NR following SEC approval for listing.

At this moment it is difficult to know when INT will file for an IPO but it had already announced their intentions and some of the parameters. As of Feb 3rd, INT has not officially filed for an IPO and you can track it at this adress:

http://www.hoovers.com/ipo-central/ipo-filings/100004162-1.html

The last user number update was on november 1st 2011 and we are now at about the 90 days mark.

There is 2 possibilities about this: either numbers have not continued to climb as rapidly, they have been forced into quiet mode since that date or they are in negociation to be acquired.

It looks like the first option is almost impossible with all the exposure INT got since that time so i would likely tend to believe that it is option #2 or option #3.

That being the case, 90 days would expire about in 5-10 days if we take into account holiday period. So i am now expecting full disclosure of users, profitability and all other important data in the coming days.

Also interesting to note that an insider sold about 60,000 shares 2 days ago but guess what: when you look at the exact options number that were excercised, you will find that 300,000 were bought and if you make the calculation, you will find that the quantity sold was covering the total amount needed to pay for his options and income tax related to his gains. So to me it is indicating something is coming in the most favorable way.

In all of those scenarios possible, remember that an IPO is coming for an unknow value but no less than 210M$ and a dividend up to 30% meaning up to 63M$ being close to 0,50 cents per share leaving a risk to reward ratio very very low. The downside for INT is around 0,25 and the upside is only limited by it's IPO and the details of the offer that will come rapidly.

I am not nervous about the last couple of days where INT has lost a bit of steam and some pennies and i would be more nervous about thinking to get into INT on the next 0,60 or less price tag.

As always never invest more than you can afford to lose and nobody ever went bankrupt by taking a profit.

Also note that i should be posting an update about INT very soon whenever i get clarification on some of the items that i will be reporting in that update.

ALERT INT

Since 2 days, volume and price has increased incredibly for INT.

The stock has achieve today 0,84 and incredible run from the 0,46 of 3 weeks ago.

Now, is this the storm or only the beginning of the great leg up leading up to the IPO announce?

Well, i think INT is getting back to where it belongs nad it is definitely not under 1$.

Today we have seen so far a lot of trades coming from day traders and penny flippers and that is ok. Let see if it will close at the high of the day or if it will retrace to 0,76 to 0,78.

If it was to close at 0,83 to 0,85 range it could very well mean that monday will be the real storm with volume well over 10M shares.

ALERT UWN

UWN has been approved for a gaming license in Nevada.

This is the 2nd license given to UWN this week and this will surely lead to new acquisitions or contracts and at the same time enhance company value.

ALERT INT

Another strategic alliance for INT where more and more potential customers will be in touch with Ortsbo.

By the way, have you look recently at ranking for Ortsbo in the world:

WOW !

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ortsbo.com

ALERT TVI

TVI has just released that they have applied for an MPSA in the area of Malusok and SE Malusok.

By getting the permit, TVI will be able to explore the area situated very close to actual Canatuan mining property.

Without a doubt, this could be a significant news to expand mine life at Canatuan.

It will also be very interesting to look at Q4 results as to wheter TVI  continued to add ore from outside the original resources area mentionned in the 43-101 as they had in Q3. Remember than in Q3, only 1/3 of ore processed was coming from proven ressources and by doing so, mine life was extended.

More to come  

UPDATE BPOP

BPOP has reported today their latest quarter results and even if net profit was a bit low, the trend is indicating that lending is on the rise and that loan quality is going higher also.

Very good indicators for the near future

Remember also that is not always a good thing to chase after a share on the rise (momentum trading). Sometimes it is worthty but most of the time you end up losing.

Be careful and i would wait for a down tip to buy some more. Future does look very very good for BPOP

UPDATE INT

We have seen today good price movement establishing a new base (unless something major happen) and this base is fixed at about 0,60.

Is that price correct? Well if we take into consideration that INT is actually worth 32M$ and that Ortsbo should bring in around 140M$ INT is today trading at book value.

There is still place for a good upward movement but i suspect we will need another good NR to move north of 0,75 as resistance seems to be really high.

Let's see tomorrow how it unfold.

UPDATE INT

We have seen today some churn in INT shares right after it hit 0,65$. I would tend to say that it was a regular situation where we do not have yet all the details and that on friday many were able to buy at 0,455 giving them close to 50% profit in only 1 day (or even less).

For most traders, it is normal and correct to take some off the table when situation arise where you made so much profit in so less time.

The value of INT does not make any doubt at this point and we could expect a release of all details pretty soon and at the actual price it would be very surprising that a downtrend will follow the next release.

Will the share rise tomorrow??? Good question and it will depend upon the number of buyers compare to the number of sellers.

Will it be exciting: yes it will be again but if you took your profit today, enjoy the ride ! 

UPDATE INT

Is INT (CVE) recent share price movement sustainable?

This is a very interesting question. INT has been on my top pick list for 2012 for some time now (November 2011)as they seem to have created a very interesting product called Ortsbo capable of translating instantly in 53 different languages.

That by itself is very interesting and even if the quality of this product is not 100% on the translation side, I must agree it is very good and well designed.

I was watching their latest presentation in all those languages simultaneously and it was really good. Even the plug in for Outlook is doing good.  

But IS there a demand for this kind of product?

Based upon the incredible high number of unique users (that is on a rapid rise every month) it would suggest that indeed there is a great demand for it.

Now, the challenge that Intertainment Media is facing is how to make great revenues from this unique product AND that takes time.

Last Friday (January 20^th 2012) the sudden share price rise was in fact driven by an update from INT stating that the spinoff of Ortsbo was imminent and that actual shareholders would get a 30% of pre-money that Ortsbo would attract and paid a share dividend from the new company created.  That was enough to see an increase of 29% in about 3 hours.

Last year at the end of march 2011, it took about 2 weeks to see share price climb from a bit over 40 cents to a whopping 3,35$.

Unfortunately many investors lost their shirt as the share price went down to 0,28 cents  early October 2011.

Are we at the beginning of a new leg up where this time INT will climb to a 4 or 5$ share? Think about that: if INT would climb to 5$, it would mean that INT is valued at roughly 1,4 billion $. Is that reasonable? We must not forget also that they have roughly 47M warrants and 15M options for a possible total of 327M shares issued if all warrants and options are exercised and would now place INT value at 1,6B dollars. Based on the fact that actually the social media hype allows a multiple of close to 100 times the revenue estimated for evaluation purpose, INT will have to generate 16M$ in yearly revenues if we want to take for granted that 1,6B$ is a possibility. IS THIS POSSIBLE?

Last quarter they generated 1,3M$ in gross revenues and it is only the beginning.  

They have 21M$ in cash on hand and are burning a little over 3M$ per quarter. So they should be ok for the next year and could even add up some more buyout of interesting technology.

They actually control many divisions and the most interesting one is what they call ‘The new Media’ division mainly consisting of:  Ortsbo, Ad Taffy, Deal Frenzy, itiBiti and Commobility.

There is a lot of very good info in the MD&A posted on Sedar end of December that I will not replicate here but here is the address:

http://sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=FR&docClass=7&issuerNo=00015693&fileName=/csfsprod/data125/filings/01844214/00000001/i%3A%5CSedar%5CIntertainmentMediaInc%5C2011Financials%5C122311MDA.pdf

Over all, I think that INT has a great future especially if they retain a good chunk of Orstbo. With all those acquisitions they made recently it would not be impossible to see major advertisers come on board. As an example, how much money would a company like Mcdonalds invest in a pop-up add that would appear on every user of Ortsbo offering a free coffee? At the same time users could get the direction to the next McDo restaurant in their OWN LANGUAGE, anywhere in the world at the same time?

The possibilities are endless and only limited by management imagination.

Can they achieve 16M yearly in revenues?  Yes they can

Can they achieve it this year? No I do not think so

Do they have the right management? Yes they seem to be really dedicated to INT success.

Do they have the right customer base? Yes and increasing by the minute

Do they have enough money to continue expansion and creativity? Yes they do

Do they have competitors? Yes they have but none as integrated as they are

Is this the right timing for a spin off? Yes as long as they keep control over Ortsbo

What is the value of INT shares: If revenues stays on the same track as they are, they could end up this year with revenues of  (for the 2012 quarters )  1,5M$, 1,8M$, 2,2M$ and finally 2,7M$ for a 8,2M in 2012 revenues. Based on that figure and a 100 time revenues INT could be valued at around 820M$ at the end of 2012 for a 2,51$ per share price when fully diluted.

This value is based only on what has been disclosed as of December 2011 and does not take into account the intellectual value of INT, trademarks etc.

 Is INT at 0,60 cents a good investment? WOW sure it is. If you like a bit the roller coaster associated with speculation combined with some great value you are in for a heck of a ride and for the dreamer in you, what would happen if Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Facebook and those really involved in this social media market were deciding to acquire INT. It could be the biggest share price war since a very long time with results only dreamers have in the back of their mind. But even if it was to break 2,50$ it would still be over a 400% gain.

How about that!!!

Disclosure: I am long on INT. As usual never invest more money than you can afford to lose and always discuss with your financial advisor before investing to be certain the investment is suitable for you.

ALERT INT

After reviewing today's release, it seems more than likely that Ortsbo is almost ready to be spinned off INT with a dividend now sitting at 30% of money received for it and paid in shares of the new company.

What does that mean? We could see a major price hike on monday followed by a large profit taken either end of day monday or early tuesday.

You judge by yourself and there is never anything bad to pocket some profit made. The best is always to get free shares and let the rest goes 'on the house'

In any case, be careful and get ready for an exicting beginning of the week. If you are not yet in INT, i would wait to see how market goes early next week. It is most of the time a bad idea to chase a share only based on momentum.

ALERT DRL

Have you seen Q4 results for DRL ???

Fantastic compared to Q3 and last year. Finally some great profit.

Expect a great leg up from tomorrow for a 4-5 days.

Alert UUU

Very good increase in sales and production reported today. Expect start of a nice leg up

ALERT CTL

With their new refinancement plan and due to the fact that dilution will be so enourmous, CTL is no longer a speculative move.

On the other hand, if shares drop to the 0,005 tomorrow and you still believe that on the longer term that move will be positive, it could be a good time to pick up some (100,000 shares will cost 500$ at 0,005) and if shares goes higher, it could be the time to take some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI has won an injunction against the open pit mining ban.

See the complete release here.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tvi-pacific-inc-wins-injunction-against-ordinance-that-would-ban-new-open-pit-mining-2012-01-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Hope you did bought some more at 0,035 or 0,04 as it could very well be the beginning of a good leg up for TVI. Remember that Balabag is also coming soon.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just completed his 2nd zinc shipment of the year valued 4,7M$.

So TVI is now getting very close to a 100M$ revenues company and we should hear soon about Balabag feasability study.

Remember that the project is now safe from any ban on open pit mining as per provincial legislation.

I think 2012 will rock this one up

ALERT LVS

LVS has been advised that the investigation has been concluded and that no further action will be taken against the Company at this time in Honk Kong. Still more investigations are underway but this is great news.

Complete story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577106401261860634.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

ALERT CTL

Based upon today's new in regard of interest payment being deferred, it is preferable to hold on to your position.

If you bought recently, your average cost would be in the 0,05 to 0,06 and the possibilities are still very high for a default or a bankruptcy procedures. Therefore, i would use any rally to sell some shares to try to obtain a close to 0 average cost (the free shares concept) and hold to them until final resolution.

But with the actual pulp and paper problems all around the globe, the chances that CTL would get some kind of re-financement without wiping all actual shareholder value, is very very low.

CTL is now a highly risky speculative buy and for the coming weeks it will be into the hands of speculators.

You can play the game but be extremely cautious. Odds are not in CTL favor (or shareholder favor).

As of today, Canadian dollar has lost about 10% sinc July, demand has been stabilizing somewhat and this quarter should have been at least break-even. So what happen? They had about 18M$ in cash and close to 108M$ in credit line available. What else do they know that we do not at this time? How went the first 2 months of Q4 ? Are they really that bad? What is 2012 outlook ?


I will ask and try to obtain answers.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.

ALERT UWN

UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos ) will published their 2nd quarter for 2012 next week on the 15th and this could really well be the beginning of a quarterly net profit era.

Based upons results from Q1 2012 and last year Q2 results, the following items should reflects improvement

- interest expenses should have decreased based upon new loan agreement with Wells Fargo
- Total revenues should have increase because of the first complete quarter of Red Dragon

So, even if gross revenues from other properties were to stay flat compare to last year, overall revenues should have increased by a 5-10%, interest expenses should have decrease significantly and adjusted EBITDA should be in the 800K$ to 950K$ range and net profit in the 0,01 to 0,02 cent per share .

Then if you calculate the actual net value per share, even by removing completely the good will value, UWN is still valued at 14M$ with on hand cash (including restricted cash) over 7,5M$ for a 1,03$ value per share and a 2,26$ value per share if we include the good will value.

I still believe that we could be in for results that would beat my expectations and therefore providing a good share value increase. Do not forget also that the slot machine run deal that will close in Q3 2012 will add great profit and if Washington was to allow slot machines in their state in a near future, UWN could be set to sky rocket rapidly as they would be well positionned to be licensed for a 1250 machine and a 85M$ in revenues increase (based upon their last presentation). Now imagine how the net profit would look like ! UWN share value increase that would arise from a decision like this one could be similar to the one experimented by MPEL due to revenues increase in Macau.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.  

ALERT TVI

Very good news this morning in regard of Balabag project as it will not suffer from the same problems as Canatuan with tentative bans from local due to a provincial resolution that Bayog cannot prohibit legitimate mining firms to excercise their rights over mining sites.

This is most probably the best new to hit TVI since many months.

To get the complete story, here is the link:

http://interaksyon.tv/article/19073/zambo-del-sur-govt-invalidates-order-banning-open-pit-mining-in-bayog-town

Also all other very interesting news are available on TVI official web site under ORDINANCE.

Still do not forget to visit my friends at:

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT INT

Some time ago  CVE:INT was added into my top speculative move and today, INT will be added to my top pick list for 2012.

The reasonning behind that is the fact that their product (namely Ortsbo) has had an customer based increase absolutely phenomenal and that the management team is now focused to provide a complete solution in the entertainment sector.

With all the moves that were done recently, it would be very surprising that revenues would not follow.

If INT was to achieve an EPS of only 0,01 or 0,02, with the actual evaluation of social medias like Facebook being at about 50 times earning, it is easy to believe that INT would be easily north of 1,75 rapidly.

Naturally at this stage of their growth it is still largely speculative but customer interest is there, investor interest is there and product/value is there.

If management continue to do what they had in the past, well there is absolutely no reason why INT could not be a 400% winner in 2012.

This is why INT is now one of my pick for 2012.

Naturally do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always always take some profit when price indicate that.

TVI UPDATE

TVI completed another shipment today for another 12M$ in revenues. Great Job.

Now here is my update in regards of Q3 2011

Q3 results were surprising to say the least.

I was very surprise by the sudden decrease in production cost. From 1,65$ to 1,33$ was a major improvement (roughly 20%)  in 1 quarter.

Naturally that improvement trend is not sustainable and I think that cost will remain at about 1,33$ for the next 1 or 2 quarters .

The great cost improvement was essentially the major factor allowing TVI to achieve 3M$ in profit during Q3. If they can ship copper and zinc on time, TVI could again show a good profit in Q4  (before oil asset write off).

But the biggest factor that strokes me was the fact that mine life was decreased only by .1 during the quarter due to the blend with mineral that was not include in the original ore reserves. If that trend was to continue, it could easily expand Canatuan mine life by a couple of years and this would be fantastic.

Look also at gold and silver produced as the grades were quite high and the best of the year.

The overall shareholder equity has increased by almost 10M$  compared to December 2010 and accumulated deficit is now standing at only 1,4M$. This is a very good indicator of TVI’s financial health at this moment.

In regard to the cash on hand, 23M$ is a huge pile of money and even if all low interest short term loans were to be repaid, they would still be left with money in the bank.

What it is telling me is that the cash flow generated by Canatuan is enough to finance Balabag bootstrap without additional long term loan at high cost.

We should not also underestimate Malasok and SE Malasok as they could encounter significant reserves there also. It would be very surprising that Canatuan would be the only part of the area having enough mineral to be a profitable mining site.

TVI also mentioned that they were still pursuing other possibilities and they now have the money needed to go ahead with some other major mining companies out there. It would be purely speculative at this time to name them or try to identify the projects but looking at all the different and recent press releases there is at least one interesting project where TVI could be associated with.

In regard to Canatuan, we all know what happen with the provincial government and that a ban was established to take effect in November 2012. TVI has mentioned that they will take all possible legal actions against that illegal ban and I think they have a good chance to win their case and if otherwise, I think that Balabag will already be in operation at that time avoiding some months without any revenues.

Also interesting to note is that TVI is for the second quarter in a row a 100M$ company and this is absolutely not reflecting in the share value. Again major price disconnect between share value and share price and still a lack of interest from the buyers as volume is unbelievably low.

TVI sold Alaska right after the quarter for a price almost double of what was paid for Alaska, Niger and Philippine properties when you include all the credits they also received. Naturally some write off will have to take place but it is not affecting cash position being only book value for properties that have been sold. The high interest loan was also repaid in full. (LIM loan)

Now, for Balabag, it is clear that the 43-101 is late and has been pushed many times. But is this something that they absolutely needs? For the investors’ confidence it is a yes but because they do not need any financing to develop Balabag, it is not the most important thing at this time. Based upon remarks and financial statements page 20,  (item 15) it is clearly stated that Balabag expenses have started to be capitalized. I think the message right there is very clear: Balabag will be a mine!

So what are the different scenarios for 2012:

BEST: Ban on Canatuan is lifted and TVI is able to increase mine life to about 3 years with ore not coming from indicated resources. Canatuan should be able to generate another 10M$ in net profit per year and a 100M$ gross revenues. Then Balabag should be in production near year-end 2012 adding up a 5-10M$ in revenue (maybe a 5000 ounces in Q4 2012).

WORST: The ban is not lifted and Canatuan must cease operations end of 2012. TVI will still had pocketed 7-8M$ in net profit and 80M$ in gross revenues. Q4 would be a bit difficult with only 1 shipment from Canatuan before closure and minor revenues from Balabag.

If we add up all the other possibilities from JV, new prospects, Tamarok, Malasok etc, it would be very surprising that TVI would not be able to succeed in 2012. It is third world mining and we never know exactly what could happen (or we would be all very rich persons) but I still think that TVI has a great chance of success over there as they already prove with their Canatuan operations and no matter what will happen in Canatuan, TVI will still be a profitable mining company and results from Balabag by itself will be a lot more valuable than the actual value affixed to TVI. Producing gold in the Philippines has nothing to do with operations in North America. Cost to produce gold is very low and ore reserves are there. I do not see any reason for TVI to fail at that project. Remember that TVI has a lot of experience in producing gold (referring to Gossan mines from 2004-2008)

In conclusion I think that TVI is still a good buy, Q4 could be another solid quarter (before 1 time event) and future is bright.

PS: DO not forget to visit my friends at :

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT CTL

CTL (tsx) has been added to my top pick speculative plays.

They have announced today a major 200M$ loss BUT at the same time their quarter is a lot better than Q2. With a bit of luck they could have ended up break even.

Q4 is normally a strong quarter for CTL and i am now wondering what was the real reason to write off their mill COMPLETELY on Q3 instead of Q4??? (as normally companies would do to clera the numbers for the coming year)

Their results altough not totally impressive, were in the right direction and unless they totally miss their Q4, they should come out with a small profit in Q4.

This is their last presentation and it is absolutely interesting (in regards of the facts)

http://www.catalystpaper.com/sites/default/files/2011-11-14earnings-prest_0.pdf

Time will tell but at this level (0,075) i am a buyer. Risk is very low and possibilities are great: take over, profit margin increases etc. You can probably mention 10 more.

I was a buyer at 0,25, was still at 0,15 and now at this bargain price i will definitely reduce my average cost a lot.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing

UPDATE DRL

What a huge miss did DRL posted for it's Q3. Totally unpredictable.

Hope the down slope will stop rapidly. Already closing near the 1$ limit. If it goes under, it could signal time to sell some to limit losses and get some liquidity to buy it back cheaper.

I still think that DRL will be part of a deal to restraint the number of banks in Puerto Rico.

ALERT DRL

What a bad quarter and a huge miss for DRL. Market reaction was correct given the loss at -,023 and estimates were -0,01.

Will have to minotor closely and take decision if it goes under 1$. If it does, it would be time to unload slowly but surely. It could even be a good time to sell on a positive dip.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just announced that they have sold their Alaska oil assets for 16M$. When you add about 5M$ received in credit recently it means that they have received close to 2 times what was paid for 1 year ago. Not a bad deal overall.

It also means a couple of things: Philippines oil assets are now free and if anybody was wondering how they would finance Balabag, well now we may have the answer.

Also very important to note is that 6M$ loan will be repaid totally.

That is a very prudent move considering the fact they would have had to invest more money with the partners to finally know what was lying under North Tan and I think that any $ that would have been spent out there would not have been the best move especially when you need money to finally build and start the Balabag project.

Very interesting also is the note in regard to a enhance join venture or an acquisition. Is there anything else in the work?

Q3 MD&A will be very very interesting to analyse !

UPDATE UWN

UWN will issue more shares and dilute somewhat actual shareholders but keeping in mind that this is to pay for a new acquisition, it does make sense as dilution factor should be less than profit upgrade.

It has been way oversold and if you were awaiting a dip to get into UWN, it could very well be the time.

Welcom WPX to my top picks

With announcement of a NI43-101 indicating a fantastic potash reserve, the is no doubt that WPX will be a winner this year or early 2012. (see their press release)

They have already mentionned that they hope to advise about a strategic partnership before year end and i think that in conjonction with that latest release, it will increase a lot their share value.

Still a bit speculative but great return in sight.

Estimated value before year end 2011: 2,25$ and 6$ by year end 2012 if merger (or JV) happen early 2012.

Welcome aboard WPX.

ALERT BPOP

Afeter an incredible volume of 54M shares traded on friday (average is around 10M shares) today has been somewhat difficult BUT it seems that finally some have read properly the last quarter results: THEY MADE NICE PROFIT.

Sure was less than last quarter but when you remove 1 time item and add special commercial loss provision of this quarter, well BPOP is in very very good shape.

With consolidation that will be coming in Puerto RIco (there are too many banks) this will only help BPOP.

ALERT UWN

Nevada Gold and Casino

UWN has just signed an agreement to purchase a slot route operator in Deadwood for 5,2M$.

When this transaction will be completed, UWN will ad about 1,25M$ in EBITDA (within 3-4 months).

This is a large EBITDA increase and i find it interesting that they are now into the slot machine business just a couple of weeks before Washington starts wondering about the possibility of legalizing these in the state where UWN does have many small casinos. Hummmmmmmmmmm.

To follow closely !

UWN UPDATE

Did you notice?

UWN has been slowly but surely climbing back to the 2$ mark on steady volume. For sure it is far from the 100K volume they saw some weeks ago but based upon some technical data relative movement is showing improvement in the number of buyers and relative strength is getting better.

Keep in mind that with a low number of shares available, this one could fly rapidly.

Also please remember that on Oct 10th Wells Fargo agreed to refinance 11M$ of their existing debt and extend the remaining 4M$ until 2015. The loan (that will mature in 2014) will retire outstanding debt that were to mature in 2012 and 2013 giving a very interesting position to UWN to use their next 3 years cash flow to do some more acquisitions and increase substantially their annual gross revenues. It is very very interesting to note that UWN was able to capture Wells Fargo attention and based upon the fact that Wells Fargo is one of the biggest USA bank i would not be surprised to see their analysts pick up UWN story and that being the case, i would prefer to be an actual investor instead of trying to catch them up later on the rise. If UWN would have been researching a great business partner, they may have just found them. Wells Fargo has been long time recognized as a bank that understand the small to mid-cap size business needs and have been involved around the USA for many of these small loans. Wells Fargo is one of the most well managed bank (they even refused TARP but were force to accept it) and especially now where capital available is still hard to find, I am convinced that they did their home works before approving a loan to UWN. By itself it is a confirmation of the very good financial situation of UWN

This change by itself should give UWN some fuel to achieve my share price expectation of 4$ within the end of the year. I know it sounds very aggressive but a great result for Q2 2012 could be enough and as mentioned in my last evaluation I expect that UWN could generate 16M$ in gross revenues, 1M$ in EBITDA and a 0,03 to 0,05 per share net profit. Anything over would be the catalyst to 4$ share price rapidly and with the next release due somewhere in mid-December, Christmas party could be earlier this year!!!

They have a great business model (almost unique) and management seems to be very passionate about their plan.

I remember that some time ago (in 2010) I mentioned a casino pick that was very interesting in march 2010 (MPEL) and it was trading at about 4,38$ at that time. MPEL achieved 16$ earlier this year for a close to 400% run. I was really surprised when Jim Cramer (CNBC) mentioned that he did not saw MPEL coming. So get ready for a second hit in the casino business. UWN will rock.

So for these reasons, UWN has now been upgraded to #4 for top pick for the remainder of 2011 and Q2 report will speaks for my 2012 year picks dues around January 15^th 2012.

(Still thinks they are missing a letter in their ticker name: should be UWiN)

UPDATE TVI

TVI reported today that they have completed shipment #24 for gross revenues close to 15M$ and over 1,25K tons of copper concentrate remaining in inventory. Also worth noting is the total zinc already produced that should be shipped end of december. Actually this is money in the bank.

The value of the shipment is very high when you look at copper price today against 6 weeks ago.

If cost remained under control (even a bit lower) we could have some positive surprise when Q3 results are published.

I had estimated about 1M$ in loss but could be a little less.

Interestingly, even when copper price have dropped by more than 25% recently, the share price (even if actually very low and disconnected against share value) the share price did remain pretty stable.

It would not need a lot to move higher as resistance over 0,06 is really low.

UWN the reason behind this new top pick

When small is beautiful: That could be the story of Nevada Gold & Casino Inc.

When I indicated that this corporation was under my radar last year (stock was trading at 1,07$ at that time) I was far from believing that suddenly with some great acquisitions, that company could double its share price and that I would still believe that it was only the beginning. Think about that: market crash, unemployment in the 9%, no economic growth and your company double its market cap??? You definitely must have done something right and here is what I found and by the way based upon recent market activity, I am no longer the only one that is starting to be interested into that success story.

Naturally we should not compare UWN to some largest company like LVS, MPEL or WYNN as they are clearly not competitors. But it is very important to note that the entire entertainment sector has been very profitable lately especially in gambling outside the United States and this is where UWN does make a difference. They have been able to create their own niche in a very difficult market. So, what is this all about?

UWN owns and manage small scale casinos almost directed toward the clientele of Mr. everybody that does some gambling for fun and in an environment very friendly where customer seems to be the number one priority. One point that I should mention is the fact that all employees from their newest acquisition (Red Dragon) went to a customer service training seminar almost immediately after they finalized the acquisition.

It would also be very difficult to compare with any other company as there is not too many that are operating that kind of mini casinos and operating more than 1.

So, what should we expect form UWN ?

They have the intention to acquire some casinos in Nevada and it could add some 3-4M$ for each unit they buy BUT it could add to the total debt already in the 15M$ range.

And debt is one problem to come with some being due in 2012 but their latest association with Wells Fargo to find a refinancing solution could ease that one out if negotiations are successful. If they were to find a new loan agreement covering all the debt and at better terms and at somewhat a bit lower interest rate, this could give them a break and allow them to breathe easier.

On the other hand they have the right to issue up to 20M$ in stock and this would cover more than the total debt load leaving even some more money for other acquisitions.

If UWN consolidate their actual assets and integrate them rapidly they should be able to generate a lot more net revenues and be ready for some more expansion AS LONG as they do not have to overspend in company management. At this point, it would not be wise to get that expansion in areas that they do not operate actually due to overhead expenses.

So here are my expectations for Q2 2012 if everything goes as expected:

-          Net EBITDA of 1M$ (increase provided by increase in earnings, expenses staying at current level in % , lower management and legal expenses)

-          Earnings of 16M (due to the revenue increase from Reg Dragon)

-          Net revenue per share of 0,03 to 0,05

They will definitely continue to be very aggressive in their development and as long as they stay within their ‘know how’ range there are no doubt that UWN will be a great winner in 2012. Markets will stabilize, unemployment will get better and consumer confidence will be brighter. All the needed elements will be in place to send UWN on track for a record year.

For these reasons, UWN is now a top pick for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012. Price expectations are within 2,90$ and 3,70$ before December 31^st 2012 for a decent 50% to 100$ return.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing.

Week ahead

It will be very interesting to watch the first couple of trading days. last week was a great one were even unemployment was unable to derail the bull but i would not be very surprise to see at least one day where market will try to test who will win: bears...bulls....

TVI should give some update on the expected shipment. I think we should know by wednesday.

Regional banks could continue to rise modestly but surely this week (BPOP, FBP, DRL) and i still think there are some rumors going on in the Puerto Rico banking sector where 2 should merged: DRL and FBP. Who will buy the other ??? Either case we win

LVS, MPEL and our newly member UWN should continue to rise this week. Keep a clsoe eye on UWN. After releasing a very good quarter last week, some volatility was seen on thursday and friday when some profit taking happened. Expect a rebound.

BZH could be helped by the numbers to be released this week and at this time it is pretty undervalued.

Lot more action to come so stay tune.

WPX has been added to UNDER THE RADAR picks

WPX:TO could be a great addition if it's share price continues to hold in the 1,15$ to 1,30$ range. Otherwise, if price continues to decline or if insider selling continues, i would wait until 0,75 to get into that company in a very agressive way.

At this time, it is not clear of the profitability of their project and until the feasability plan is completed it will be difficult to assess the real value of this one.

For the moment it is more of a speculative but based upon the 43-101 it could be profitable and there could be a lot of volatility between now and the feasibility project that should be released mid 2013.

As usual any interesting event should move WPX from under the radar to a top pick but the conditions needed are the following (as for any other stocks UNDER THE RADAR):

- fluctuation of share price minimal to avoid trying to catch a falling knife
- a sudden price increase at this stage would be considered speculative move and wihout a press release it will not be considered to be moved to TOP PICKS
- Regular press releases concerning updates on land, feasibility advances could trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Price stabilization and lack of volatility could also trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Insiders buying in large quantity would move WPS to TOP PICK after prices is stabilized
- Volume increase (buying pressure) for some weeks could move it to TOP PICK
- Any other VERY positive news could also move WPX to top pick

As usual, never invest more money than you can afford to lose and ALWAYS do your own due diligence before investing in any company.

ALERT UWN

Their Q1 results are really impressive as this is normally a quiet quarter. Based upon these results, expect another good share price increase.

After listening to their quarterly conf call, i can only imagine what would happen if Washington would allow slot machines to be part of casinos in that state. There are no promises about that but with State finances being what they are (really bad) i would not be surprised to see some kind of approval in return for some good tax $.

Volume is still high (for UWN) and i think that Q2 will be again better due to their new acquisition gettting good steam.

A complete review should come sometimes this week-end. Stay tune! 

ALERT UWN

Volume as picked up recently and there is a lot of buying pressure. Either somebody know something or many more investors are now discovering UWN.

No matter which one it is, it seems very positive.

OCNF is delisted from my top picks

Based upon recent developments and economy still lagging, OCNF is no longer part of my top picks and my position has been sold.

UWN a diamond in the rough. Welcome to my list

Ok...Economy is still in the negative territory and finding great value stocks is still very difficult. But UWN could be the next one in the gaming industry to answer my criterias.

They will be releasing their numbers for Q1 by september 15th and i expect some very very good news.

EBITDA is increasing faster than gross revenues and this is a sign of good management.

Their last quarter did showed high increase in all aspect of the business and i am almost convinced that Q1 to be reported will be another positive surprise.

Complete analysis will follow their 2012 Q1 reports but to me UWN will rock the place!

ALERT QE3

It seems that at this time there will be no more money printing from the US fed.

That is great news. Let the market correct itself without government intervention.

With some good fiscal policy and some help for new homeowner, economy will get back on track rapidly. 

Have we reach a bottom

I am close to declaring a bottom on the market.

VIX index is getting lower and gold is getting a well deserved correction.

If tomorrow we see a decrease again in the VIX and another 50--100$ drop in gold i will be inclined to say we have achieved a bottom.

In any case, bottom fishing is still great and there are still way undervalued stocks actually: BPOP for 2$, DAN for 11,61$   Ford for 10,45$ and the list goes on.

I would not use all cash asides to buy immediately, but i have already start buying since last friday one smll step at the time and buying on the down dips.

Market craziness is not over but i think it is now safe to get back in and those that are still thinking about going back in recession: i do not think so.

ALERT Puerto Rico banks

I think we can call a near bottom in the case of DRL and BPOP and a 3,50$ for FBP.

This market has already oversold most of the US banks and these 3 are now on sale at the price well below book value:

BPOP     2.07 = 0,61 of their book value
DRL       1.37 = 0.37 of their book value

FBP        3.46 = 0.13 of htteir book value

Sure Puerto Rico is having a hard time recovering from the last recession and it may take another year but at these prices, it is worth to start accumulating on the down dips. Expectations of profits are within the next 12 months:

BPOP       5,75$ (this is the one where it is absolutely oversold)
DRL         2,72$
FBP          5,25$

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and consult your financial planner before investing in any stocks.

UPDATE TVI

What’s up with TVI ?

Last quarter report was not as expected, to say the least, but even then there were some good realisations that obviously were overshadowed by other very disappointing items.

Let’s start with the bad one:

-          The costs of chemical products seem to be rising. I think the zinc copper separation was actually harder to achieve than originally thought. The price received for the zinc is offsetting a good part of those rising supply cost and did increase total cost to produce.

-          The fact that ship had to be re-route to Europe instead of China created the worst problem. Easy to figure out that the cost to send 5000dmt to China is by far less costly than to Europe. Looking at the details, this expense ruined the quarter and I do not see any changes for at least 1 or 2 more shipments allowing TVI enough time to find a new smelter nearer Philippines.

-          Overall debt is getting higher. Some debts are a necessity but at this time increase the debt level could be suicidal. When water is running, grab a bucket but now it is time to say enough: no more room for the buckets.

-          Cash is getting lower even if TVI is STILL cash flow positive for the quarter. It simply means that they used more cash than it generated. Maybe time to assess where the money is going. To their defense there is an 284K loss due to foreign currency translation. If this was due to can$ being at 1,045 average for the last quarter, TVI could get a break on this one for Q3.

-          Very high total cost per pound equivalent most probably due to first shipment in Q2 that must have been completed when zinc flotation was not perfect and when they were experimenting a lot of different recipes of the refinement of those recipes. Still total cost per pound is higher.

-          I do not expect any profit in Q3. I expect a 1M$ loss and maybe a break even for Q4 meaning a loss for the year as I do not think TVI would be able to generate a 3M$ net earnings in Q4 unless they find a new smelter before end of Q3 for shipments in Q4.

Now the good one:

-          Cost to produce copper is going down (do not mix with total cost per pound) and should offset a good part of higher expenses

-          Mill is running at high capacity

-          Copper % is very high at 23% (average)

-          1^st  zinc shipment to be reported in Q3

-          2^nd Flotation circuit to be added that should help again lower cost per pound and increase quality of copper con and zinc con. 

-           % of copper of 1,24 (lot higher than estimated average). Remaining mine life was averaging 1,07% but we see that there is still higher copper grade available to be mined.

-          High gold grams per tons (for Canatuan it is very good)

As for Tamarok results, well it is a neutral one. They were drilling the outcrop and as suspected nothing of importance out there. THIS IS NORMAL. With the size of Tamarok, it is easy to expect many hundred drilled holes before having the right picture of this huge area. As far as I am concerned, I would not expect any updates before 2012 and as of today, this is not priority number 1.

Increasing mine life at Canatuan is the number 1 priority then it is Balabag. No surprise there.

A note about share dilution. It is false to state that TVI went from 479M shares in December 2010 to 622M shares because of TGE acquisition. 76M of those shares were options already acquired by LIM when they financed TVI for Canatuan in exchange for a 15% stake in the company. So these options could have been materialized without the purchase of TGE.

Now about the options: this is a good new: at the TVI price of today, most of them could not be exercised. About 28M options are over 0,06… and the 8M warrants remaining are at 0,045. So if price stays at this level, we could avoid another partial dilution. As for the issuance of those options, I do not see any problem there. You want the best guys, you need the best guys, then they get the best possible pay when EXCEDING results. (Easy to see when stock price moves higher and the opposite is equally true)

So what is the real picture: as of today: bad on results and great on possibilities. TVI will have to get back to profitability as I am now wondering who will finance Balabag as there are simply no other options unless oil properties were sold to cover start-up cost (I doubt that unless there are great proven resources in Alaska or Niger surprises us) and issuing shares would dilute too much actual shareholder value. So cash flow generated must increase to allow the implementation of this bootstrap mine. Canatuan should be producing until mid-2013 so it should not be a problem to fund Balabag almost completely with cash flow generated from Canatuan.(Do not mix cash flow with earnings because earnings take into account many items that do not have any influence on cash like amortization) as long as expenses stay under control and that no other major surprise arise.

Do I still believe in TVI’s future: Yes BUT at this time I would simply wait for new developments and hold my actual position hoping for the best but planning for the worst. It is time for somebody in charge to stand up, face the music and explain in ‘real’ English what is going on, what are the plans to correct those problems because margin of error is getting lower by the day and only then will shareholder be able to take a decision: keep or liquidate position.

But do not get me wrong: Balabag could become a cash cow (as did Canatuan) and we will find out as soon as the 43-101 is released, any other oil discovery would change the pattern instantly, (I say other discovery as we all know they found oil in Alaska but the unknown is how much), any 3-4 years mine life addition to Canatuan would fix part of the problem and we can go on and on. The possibilities are great but confidence is running low and the market tends to agree as we are now back to September 2009 share price.

Still not the right time to panic and still could be a great time to average down the price. But, overall it is certainly the time to get the right answers from the top officer because after all Mr James is working for us, the shareholders and we deserve to know.

I remember having been asked in the past why I would still push TVI and my answer was that until it did 2 consecutive quarters in increased negative earnings, I will still keep my target for TVI (or any other company on my top list).

Come on TVI, come on Mr James YOU can do a lot better than that.

ALERT TVI

With the posting of their last quarterly report, TVI has now been in negative for 2 quarters in a row.

They had great revenues but unfortunately expenses especially milling mining and other expenses went exponentially.

So at this moment, i would put TVI on hold until further clarification. 

Tomorrow is friday. In the good old 2008 and 2009, it was very often sell off fridays.

So for tomorrow i would watch for the DOW to test the 11,100.

If right after the opening bell, it goes under 11,100 watch for 10850. If it dows not hold, we could be retesting the lows of wednesday at about 10,700.

This market is still very sensible to any kind of news and we do not know what week-end could bring.

Because of the fact that (i think) there is a 2 for 1 probability of a down leg tomorrow many traders could be tempted to liquidiate some positions in case of an early morning rally. So if you bought some at a very cheap price yesterday or early today, WAIT before adding some to it. Tomorrow could still be very tricky and honestly i do not think that volatility is over nor this is a rally starting. Too early and no capitulation YET ! 

Is this the bottom

NO !

Expect some more turbulence today and friday especially if employment numbers are worst than 410K.

We have not seen as of yesterday the capitulation yet and it will take a huge selloff to fix it all.

It is still the right time to start shopping but again not the right time to buy all at the same time: you want 1000 shares of company XYZ then go ahead and buy 250. It could very well be worthed to 10$ in fees you will have to pay more.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE

Buyers beware

The yoyo game that market is playing now is another good exemple of market traps. Very often after a huge drop will you see a sudden come back only to go down the day after.

So with that in mind, stay focus on stock VALUE. For example WFC is a steal at today's price even if it was to go down by another 5%. If you have a 2-3 years planning, this could be the occasion to take your time and invest slowly: you want 100 shares of WFC? Then go ahead and buy 50. Yes you may have to put in another 10$ in fees but could give you another shot at the can if stock goes down again. If it goes up suddently: WAIT before buying the other 50. It could well be another trap.

Do not expect the market to be up tomorrow with a 400 point rally and keep it this way forever... It may well rebound tomorrow if employment data is at about the same level (400k-415k) but if for any reason it was to be over 450K get ready for another HUGE drop as it would be almost a confirmation of another recession or double dip recession.

Personnally i do not think we are heading toward another recession but actually this is a market of fear. Remember that whenever there is fear get greedy and the oppsite is also true.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

Where are we heading

I expect the markets to rebound somewhat this week up until friday and if employment numbers are under 400K for this week, then we could imagine a rally and if they are not it could be another drop at least equal to gains from today to thursday.

Overall the market is totally oversold and near if not at the bottom now.

I have seen panic selling yesterday and even this morning futures are really highly volatile.

That being said, remember right after the selloff in march. 1 month ago when you were looking at share price at that time many would have dream to have bought a lot more. Well, we are at these levels now: DAN at 11$, Ford at 10$, LVS at 37$ and so on.

I think it is time to get back in slowly but surely. If you would buy 1000 DAN today, i would start by a 25% chunk and see what happen during the week.

In any case, never invest more than you can afford to lose and if your are investing for a 3-5 years, well this is it: bargain time !

Market Update

Time to get back to work...

We have been slammed recently with all kind of problems and friday S&P rating USA AA+ is nothing to help.

But, if you have invested in companies that are well undervalued you may have suffered a bit more recently  and up and down swings are not over. Expect great volatility early this week and a terrible monday morning trading session. HANG IN THERE. It is not the time to throw out the towel. You have not loss anything until you sell. Now imagine if you were on the speculator side and fully invested in comapnies that are worthless: you could be slammed a lot more.

Some may be tempted to sell on the early opening monday but it could be a great mistake. Most of the buyers will be on the sideline knowing that many will try to get out at any price.

So if there is one place to be tomorrow: it is on the buying mode right after the early crazyness stops.

Remember why you bought the companies you bought. Remember what were the price you were looking for before starting to sell. Do you think it has changed that much???

Do you think that for example DAN that was trading at 19$ recently is now worth only 13$ because of USA problems? No way. It may take some time but i think that it is actually the second biggest chance to get into the market at heavily discounted price in less than 3 years. Opportunities will be there tomorrow morning for those who are ready to accept some great swings in value over the next 3 months but who are looking at the longer term picture.

Expect some more updates tomorrow on many of my top picks.

UPDATE TVI

Reading the posts all around the place today i think we are in need of some clarification between large mineralisation and economical to drill.

Remember that gold is actually at a very high price and even if that could change, some area of Balabag is now economical to drill.

There is some hole where there were no mineralization at all and if I am correct this is where all infrastructures will be installed and built. Nobody would like to build that kind of infrastructure where there is the most gold. That would be silly.

Now, the results by themselves are telling me that they are ok and some areas are great. Unfortunately they will not and could not comment any further as they need a 43-101 to be included with any comments more than what was already said this morning on the press release.

One thing that strikes me is the 12 more holes since the cut –off date (June 30^th) and these are interesting. Why would you continue to drill unless there were in a very interesting area? Unfortunately TVI will not comment on these drill holes for legal reasons (and selective disclosures rules) but these seem interesting.

Now if they were to be in a higher range of grams per ton, I would not mind waiting 4-5 more weeks to get those drill holes included. Anyways, a 43-101 usually takes between 45 and 60 days to be produced.

But as far as I am concerned, their main objective of defining the 50,000 ounces to start up a bootstrap mine has been achieved. Now let’s go to the needed 43-101 report, start building the mine and we should see some gold going out of there somewhere at the end of Q4-2012. I mention Q4 because we never know what can happen and sometimes in the mining industry you get surprises. So instead of expecting large gold volume in Q3, I would imagine they will be under commissioning for the latest part of 2012 then the real thing will happen in 2013. (Remember zinc was a lot longer than expected even if they tried really hard to have it running at best possible % the first time. Mining is mining)

Without having all the facts in regard of the 43-101 it will be very difficult to establish for sure any economic data for that mine BUT I think that I could say that the price per ton to produce will hover around the 350-375$ per ton (again, we do not have the complete 43-101 and feasibility project) and they should be able to produce around 60,000 ounces per year (after commissioning) for a period that will vary between 6-8 years depending of gold price as the higher it is going to be even the lowest grade area will become economical and profitable. (Based upon original 43-101 and no added gold from the last drills)

But at 1600$ per ounce we are now talking about a project that will be over 500M$ IN PROFIT over the mine life is conditions stays at what they are.

Anybody that want to join the party is welcome !

ALERT TVI

Tvi has announce their drill results from Balabag.

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Pacific-Provides-Additional-Drill-Results-From-the-Balabag-Gold-Silver-Project1126024/default.aspx

More to come tonight

The weeks ahead

Get ready for a very chompy market until a deal is reached by the US government on debt ceiling.

I think they will wait until the last minute to announce a deal and anybody having some cash on hand will be able to get some real bargain near the end of the month.

I also expect the us dollar to be on the down side vs the Canadian $ so if some profit can be madein cad$ it could be an interesting idea to buy some US stock (if you believe that us will reach a last minute deal)

If that deal was not to be reached on august 2nd, get ready for a major index free fall and again good profit to be made on many large us corp especially in the banking sector.

As usual NEVER invest more money than you can afford to lose and always ALWAYS take some profit when conditions arise. Nobody has ever been in trouble for cashing profit!

UPDATE DRL

It will be very interesting to see how DRL performed during Q2 and i would not be surprised to see a great jump in earnings.

Those who bought when DRL were at 1,25$ are now facing a dilemna: sell now before earning releases or profit from a surprise in DRL results.

As usual it is always safe to cash in some profit but i think DRL is ready to hit a home run so be careful EVEN if share price drop a bit after the release because after all they already had a great run so far this year.

my rating   BUY   price target 12 months 6$

UPDATE TVI

Hope you saw TVI price climb from 0,07 to 0,095 in a small period of time.

Nice gains along the way. Now the question is will the trend continue?

I personnally think so but we still need to see major buying volume as share have increase by close to 40% with relatively low volume.

With all projects that are soon to come a reality, there is still a major share price increase possibility for TVI.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canda shares have been taking a beating in the last few months wondering where it is going.

At the end of Q1 2011, AC.B had 2.1B$ in cahs (or cash equivalent) meaning over 9$ per share. What is the share price now???

Sure the possibility of a strike is looming, the fuel price has been higher (but most probably it's impact is well over exagerated) but passenger seat mile is higher.

All together, i think AC.B is actually well over sold and fear has a lot to do with that.

If Ac.b was to test it's 1,61$ level and going under, get ready to pull the trigger and make some shopping at great bargain price.

I still maintain my 6$ 12 month value for this stock meaning it could give a 300% return from today's level.

As usual never invest more than what you can afford to lose.

ALERT TVI

Well today another 300K shares were bought by a director of TVI getting it close to the 900KM shares since may 27th. Even if comments were made at the beginning to the effect that is was small amount of money, we are now talking close to 72K$.


Shares were bought mostly by these 2 directors:

Wayne G. Thomson , B.Sc., Director

Mr. Thomson currently serves as a Director for Cenovus Energy Inc. and Orion Oil and Gas Corp. and is the Chairman and President of EnviroValve Inc. Previously, Mr. Thomson was President of Hadrian Energy Corp. and Gardiner Oil and Gas Limited, both public companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Prior to these appointments, Mr. Thomson held the role of President of Petrocorp Exploration and spent the previous six years at the Alberta Energy Company.

Mr Thompson has bought 400K ( close to 32K$) and as you can see he is greatly involved in oil and gas.

Aloysius B. Colayco , Director

Mr. Colayco is Managing Director of Argosy Partners, Inc., a private investment and advisory firm, and a Senior Partner of Argosy Advisors, Inc. He also serves as President for Level Up! Holdings, Country Chairman for Jardine Matheson, Philippines, Member of the JM Asia Pacific Regional Board, Chairman for Republic Cement (an affiliate of Lafarge), Chairman for Colliers Philippines, Member of the Advisory Board for JG Summit Holdings, Inc. and Senior Advisor for Asia Strategic Capital Fund and Asia Environmental Partners Fund.

As for Mr Colayco, he bought 420K shares for a value close to 33K$ and is involved in capital fund.

We should not forget also Rhonda Bennetto who bought 50K also.

This is a great volume, must mean something and it is worth mentioning especially because there are many blackout periods during which no insider can trade the shares..

As a personal opinion, this could just be the beginning and remember that those shares will probably not put back on the market until TVI flies and to me it has the same meaning as a company buy back shares.

UPDATE TVI

Since the end of may 2011, close to 600K shares were bought by TVI directors.

Most of the time this indicates that something is brewing on the positive side. Also please note that the last shipment was of 24% of copper being by itself a great new.

Zinc shipment will be coming in the near future and we should not forgets Balabag gold mine to receive the go ahead signal in a very near future probably well before end of Q3.

All together, these coming news should have the shares climb back at least to their previous level of 0,135 meaning a close to 100% profit in less than 3 months.

As usual, do not invest more than what you can afford to lose but the disconnect on TVI share price compare to TVI value is incredible and indicates a strong buy signal.

ALERT AC.B

Now at this price this is a bargain. Time to get back in.

ALERT DRL

Well, for those who followed my reccomendation about Doral, it is now time to cash in with over 80% profit.

Today high volume and great increase also means that we maybe in for something larger.

In any case, it is always very safe to cash in when profit this BIG present itself.

Cheers

UPDATE TVI

Tvi has just updated their website with a new look and a very interesting module: oil101.

It is worth stopping by to learn more about Alaska oil out there.

http://www.tvipacific.com/English/RLC/north-slope-map/default.aspx

ALERT MB

Share consolidation has been confirmed to take place before june 10th at the rate of 20 for 1.

This will create some waves and it could be a good time to cash in some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI did went down a lot since last december but still with a low volume. That selling was probably due to some shareholders that did not like the TGE deal.

BUT that selling seems to have loss some steam end of last week and the fact that TVI was able to generate a revenue with only 1 shipment is very good. That was a surprise as i would have thought their earnings to be in the (0,01) to (0,02) per share.

Now what is Q2, Q3 and Q4 should look likes: i would expect 2 or maybe 3 shipments in Q2, 2 in Q3 and 2 in Q4 for another 7 more shipments this year. Sure copper price has been falling but again it seems that China and Japan will need a lot more than expected and will make copper rise back to a 4,20$ level for the rest of the year. Combine that with the fact that TVI has now a zinc circuit that works, it will increase copper % to increase between 21-25% level increasing at the same time total shipment value. So let stay at the lower level of per shipment value of 12M$ (i think more of 13-14M$ per shipment) it means there is another 84M$ in revenues and a very close to 100M$ for this year when Q1 revenues are added. All together it should generate about 0,06-0,09 per share in profit. Do the maths: unless TVI share price hover 0,18 (remember that there is still 2.3 years left of mine life) it will be still undervalued. Now add up some ore discovery, some oil in Alaska and Philippines, Balabag to be confirmed as a go and Tamarok, there is no reason that TVI shares should not explosed to the roof.

Hard to put a value at this time but a junior mining company is valued at range that varies between 15 to 25 times profit. So it could means a share price moving from 0,90 cents when lower earnings and lower evaluation are taken into account and up to 2,25$ if we use upper valuation for net earnings and valuation.

This company risk/ reward ratio is incredible at a price really attractive and totally disconnected from real value.

Those who came on board last year were able to pocket a return of 100% and even those who bought at the high price of 0,135 are still well positionned for a nice profit if any of the actual projects is conclusive: not all of them only one is needed. (Imagine Balabag at 500,000 ounces of gold on a 8 years period could generate about 800$ gross profit PER OUNCE if we think cost per ounce would be about 600$. (Usually it is about 400$). So 800$ profit per ounce* 500,000 ounces = 400M$ / 8 years or  50M$ profit per year. Each 100$ in producing cost under the figure of 600$ per ounce or 100$ in gold price over the 1400$ used would also adds another 6,5M$ per year in profit .

If TVI was to strike all of them with success, it could create some very wealthy people very rapidly. You can own a piece of this company for 0,07...i must be dreaming.

The real question is: actually TVI is facing one major concern and it is that Canatuan mine life is 2,3 years. It means that within the next 27 months they will have to have IN PRODUCTION another mine or added some more ore from Canatuan area to increase total mine life. Can they do it???

For some there is a doubt but when you look at TVI results carefully you will find out what they have accomplished in the last 6 months. Now project that over a 27 months periods and there is no doubt they will accomplish what they need to increase mine life to more interesting numbers from 7 to 10 years.

Sure TGE deal was not accepted from shareholders but now that they have those exploration wells in Alaska, Philippines and Niger (where costs to drill are now 0) what would happen if they were to strike enough oil for production as the question is no longer if they will find oil: THEY HAVE in Philippines and Alaska. The question is how much and is this going to be profitable.

Imagine for a second that the answer is YES to only one of those wells: what would happen to the share price? I could even think that the ones who were totally against their CEO for that deal would be the same to say he was a genius...

Time will tell but actually it is a great play as long as you do not invest more than you can lose. 

ALERT DRL BPOP

Doral Financial has been on the move lately and will have to be carefully watched on monday to see if it is substainable or if the raise will continue. I think a new base will be established around 1,75$ to give enough time to the 200 day average to raise at actual level.

That DRL story is not over and any great results in the next quarter could easily add up a 1 or 2$ to these shares.

At the same time we can see BPOP having problems to get out of the trading range (2,90$ to 3,25$) but remember that BPOP have acquired last year major assets from other failure bank and great increase should be seen somewhere in Q3 or Q4. This is another great opportunity to accumulate.

UPDATE MB

With the Q1 results published, it is clear that Mega Brand is continuing it's recovery at a good pace.

The last days, stock has been oversold as if we compare Q1 2011 to Q1 2010, their profit last year was coming from a 1 tiime event and that being removed, it leasves MB with another great increase. I would eaisly think that MB will complete Q2 with a nil profit per share but Q3 and Q4 will be excellent.

Good time to accumulate

WELCOME UUU

Uranium One (UUU  TSX)  has been added today may 10th on my top pick list.

Looking at the crisis in Japan it could have been easy to think that uranium would be banned for a long period of time but i do not think so anymore.

UUU has been hammered greatly and potential for a 50-60% gain is now right in front of us.

In price = 3,90$ to 4,10$ (if it goes under 3,90$ wait a bit longer)

Profit taking from 5,29$ and up

Welcome UUU

UPDATE PXLW

PXLW have been delisted form my top picks due to their incapacity to increase sales to a level that would generate some profit at this time.

UPDATE TVI

TVI announced today that SIennalynn was not economical enough to continue into that direction.

They also mentionned that they have many other ares identified for further drilling to expand Cnatuan mine life.

I think that it is only a question of time before they 'hit' the right target and enhance the mine life by many years. DO not forget Tamarok and Balabag.

Only these 2 would be more than enough to add many many years of great profitability.

Is it time to sell: no still time to accumulate.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canada has just released a lower than last year loss for Q1 getting closer to a profitable quarter.

Good increase for Q1 and very good outlook for rest of the year.

Check out reaction this morning and be patient as most of the time there is a sell on the news and maybe possible to get some more at about 2,20 to 2,24 AFTER the opening market crazyness.

If you bought in early may last year at about 1,75 this may not be the right time to cash in some profit as i think AC.B is new heading back toward the 3$ mark. 2,95$ would be a good target for profit taking. 

ALERT LVS

LVS did not impressed today with it's results but when you look at it they were not too bad either.

So expect high volatility tomorrow and if volume gets over 50M sahres traded and price below 38$, then it will be an oversold condition and some money could be made there.

ALERT YRCW

Get ready for a major drop with last week-end drop due to refinancing of the company. Actual shareholders will be 'owner' of less than 5% of the actual YRCW.

Hold before coming back but there will be some good money to me made there as volatility will be high but you will need to be fast enough to pocket in profit