TVI The waiting game

First let me say that Rhonda leaving TVI is a very bad thing for TVI and will surely mean a greater challenge for Rhonda. I wish her all the best and she will be missed in here. I was told that Raina is a very capable one and does have a great experience log. I will definitely be in contact with her in the very near future.

As expected last year numbers for TVI were good. Not excellent but ok.

Profit was correct, revenues were ok, their bank account is very nice and only very minor debt at very low interest rate. So what else can we ask for???

WE NEED PROJECTS GOING!

Obviously, every major company in the Philippine is actually in a waiting game with the Philippine Government as it would be absolutely ridiculous to announce new mining projects without even knowing what would be the taxable rate.

But for now let’s look at 2011 results and expectations for 2012.

The first thing that comes off my mind is Canatuan mine life: it is really surprising that there is still 1.6 years remaining mine life bringing TVI now to almost 2013 before mine is depleted totally. The new ore mix that Yulo is using seems to be very profitable. My opinion is that they are still drilling near the actual Canatuan pit and that they have a lot more ore available than originally thought. That being the case, it would be very interesting to know by how much mine life could be expanded but I will not count on that as it is illegal to mention new resources without going first thought a new 43-101. This would be costly and not needed at this time unless major discovery were to be made. Just the fact that they have drilled more copper and zinc near the actual pit is more than enough for me at this time.

The second thing that I find interesting is the value of the mining claims: it jumped from 3.9M$ to 6.9M$. Hummm what happen? There is an addition of 4.6M$ in 2011 and under construction, there is a 5,8M$ under Construction in progress. To me these 2 amounts are referring to Balabag and that being the case, this project is probably a lot closer to an official start-up that we originally thought.

What about cash reserves: WOW 23,7M$ that is a HUGE difference from last year and definitely comes from Alaska transaction (that had a direct impact on the 12M$ net equity jump in 2011) and some profitable mining during the year.

For the math lover in you, TVI is now generating 0,035 per share in cash flow (yearly). That is very surprising for a company to have their shares trading at the same level…

It is also interesting to note also that TVI is now a profitable mining company. Last year it had a cumulated deficit and now it is retained earnings. This is a good difference.

So the net results is that in 2011 TVI made a profit of 0,005 (half a cent) compared to last year 0,022 net profit per share. We can immediately see why shares are trading at 0,035: it does represent a multiple of 7 THE SAME as last year (well almost the same albeit a bit lower last year as a multiple).

As a starting point for TVI share price valuation I think the real ACTUAL value actually should be in the vicinity or 0,15 to 0,21 cents per share if we only take into consideration Canatuan and NO other projects. To achieve that and based upon current valuation multiple TVI will need to increase profit to the range of 0,02 to 0,03 and this means between 12M$ and 18M$ dollars in profit in 2012. For Canatuan only this is feasible.

I would also highly recommend reading the 2011 final MD&A as it contains a lot of information in relationship with 2011 results and 2012 projects. Iit would be too long to copy and paste in here.

So what should we expect from now on based upon a fast decision from Philippine Government?

1)      We need an update on Philippine oil project. I know that TVI is not the operator and NIDO is the one that will decide if and when we get one. Based upon NIDO web site, there is not much to mention about it and their extension to evaluate real oil prospect in there is ending somewhere in August 2012. Should we count on a great surprise there?  I am not sure and will not count that oil project as something of the highest priority. But I would be interested to know if the value of this area was to be considered as 0.

2)      The Balabag project official start-up signal should be announced almost immediately after the government decision because I think that TVI had enough time to complete and process all drilling and made up their mind (and their plans…). The mountain definitely did not moved but I can understand some delays in the 43-101 because they may have to fine tune the drilling process to ensure maximum value in the defined resources. If they simply change the angle at which the mountain is drilled, I am pretty confident that they have to redo completely the overall picture. (NPV (net present value) must be done pretty accurately and cannot be changed after releasing the report or it would be considered misleading information) By itself this core project of 50,000 gold ounces will be enough to give a boost to TVI shares at least half way to where they were until production really starts up. (Total proven resources as of 2008 43-101 were close to 500K ounces and the 50K ounces was only to define the start-up bootstrap.)

3)      Canatuan expansion: I am almost convinced that Malasuk contain enough copper to increase mine life at Canatuan by another 5 years and drilling around actual pit at Canatuan could increase again that mine life. I think that if there was a 10 years mine life increase (as a total including near pit mining)) this would be the biggest factor to increase share price to a more respectable level.

4)      TVI will need a really good JV partnership with a well-established company to start up a great project with well above what we are used to as potential. A jv that will have nothing in common with Dacon that unfortunately has gone nowhere as of today. How about Philex, Xstrada etc…After all if the bans were to be lifted it would be mostly because of TVI as they would have succeeded where both of them failed and I am almost certain that some of their properties could be jointly exploited. (That could be a great thank you mark…)

5)      Continue exploring the Grater Canatuan Tenement Area trying to expand Canatuan mine life as it is within trucking distance.

6)      Tamarok: Drilling program should be continued in 2012 as this could be another major project for TVI. Any major discovery there could change instantly the value of TVI.

Overall, my view in regard of TVI is that it is in a Federal and provincial battlefield where the outcome cannot be certain even if my opinion is that TVI is in its right. All those legal conflicts have eroded the share price and investor confidence. Until these are put to bed, it will be very difficult for the share price to gain any traction whatsoever.

On the other hand, I would be very surprised if TVI was only sitting there and awaiting results before getting some advancement ongoing. I am pretty convicted that TVI people are more advanced than we know and that they will release that information in due time. As of today, I would not consider that as withheld material information for the simple reason that nobody knows when or at which conditions TVI will be able to go ahead with any of those projects.

At this time we can only wish for the best outcome and it could also be a good time to lower your cost on TVI’s share if your stomach is tough enough to support a 50-50 chance of a positive outcome.

Time will tell but for now I will keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best.

François

PLAY OF THE DAY WPX

Western Potash between 0,91 and 0,93 is a great play. It is highly volatile but you can expect 1,05 to 1,10 exit price to come rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY INT

Play of hte day is INT (Intertainment Media) on TSX venture. Nice company with a great product ORTSBO.

At current level it is a good deal as ORTSBO spin off details are expected very soon and shareholders on date of record will be entitled to received 33% of the spin off and that amounts to close to 70M$.

With around 350M shares outstanding that will mean a special dividend of about 0,20 per share (will be paid in the form of shares of ORTSBO) and this will increase the ask most probably up to 1,00$ rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY ALZM

ALZM (Allezoe Medical OTCBB)

Highly volatile and for speculators ONLY. I normally get in at around 0,0105 and out 0,0175

Not the right place to invest a lot but a funny stock to watch. Has been profitable many times.

PLAY OF THE DAY AC.B

Play of the day is Air Canada (AC.B) at 0,88

Good results last month and still in the right direction. Too much fear explaining huge drop in price.

Still holding to BZH of yesterday bought at 2,99$

This is the last one one the week.

PLAY OF THE DAY

Today's play is BZH (Beazer Home USA).

Entry point at 2,99$ or less and exit at 3,25$ or more but could happen tomorrow only.

This play is in regard of home construction and is moderately volatile.

Don't forget to do your own DD and NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to lose.

Also available on twitter undere @investman2

NEW Play of the day

Everyday (business day) 1 stock will be named the stock of the day. These stocks are undervalued and represents a great trade opportunity for the day and the day after. These are very short term trades and are not for nervous investors.

For today: PLAY OF THE DAY IS:  FBP (First Bancorp or Puerto Rico). Very undervalued regional bank and moderate to high volatility. I buy around 4,16$ and sell before 4,75$ as USA govt still has about 90M shares to unload due to TARP.

It will also be available on twitter under @investman2

As usual NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to loose in these play of the day are not mean as a guide to invest. Always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

ALERT DRL

Nice ride this morning for DRL. Watch up for the 1,70$ level.

Never a bad idea to take in some profit off the table !!!

ALERT INT

Watch for 0,70 as it seems to be a major resistance (between 0,68 and 0,70)

The next time INT closes above 0,70 get rady for a major leg up.

Remember that INT will be revealing the date of record for the Ortsbo Spin off most probably at the AGM.

UPDATE INT

The way INT is doing the spin off is very interesting and definitely huge cost savings.

For the exact figures on how many shares of Ortsbo for shares of INT and other metrics, we will have to wait for the proxy to get the exact figure and the date of record.

But what i am the most surprised is the fact that INT did not crossed over the 1$ mark with a user count of 100M. Many will argue that Google Analytic is not the best to give exact figures what personnally i use it and it is really giving interesting stats. By using Google you know where your users come from (country) and from which site. That is a highly important thing to consider especially in marketing.

So the most important thing is to use always the same metrics reporting program. By doing that, we know for this example that there is a 167% increase since the last publication of stats. If true value was 0,54 (end of november value) then you must agree that value is now 0,54 * 167% = 1,54$.
That being the case we now have a great buying opportunity with a really low downside (risk reward).

One thing is sure: the coming weeks will be also very exciting.

UPDATE DRL BPOP DAN

After the first (almost) 60 dyas of the year here is an update about the above stocks:

DRL: good results in Q4 2011 should be the same for Q1 2012. Has been confirmed a CCC credit rating by Finch with a favorable outlook. This will help. Still 3,4M shares are shorted so the next results if good could result in a short squeeze. I expect a 3,75$ share price end of 2012.

BPOP: Results ok in Q4 2011 but i expect a very good Q1 2012. BPOP is the leading bank in Puerto Rico and results should improve during 2012. 15M shares have been shorted and could be a game changer if results for Q1 2012 are surprising. Recently options calls have been on the rise and could mean the start of a new leg up for BPOP. I expect a 5,75$ share price end of 2012

DAN: Still the leader in my picks for the past 3 years. From 1,27$ to 16$ it is a 1200% increase. NOT BAD AT ALL !. I still expect some improvement in the car business and the fact that DAN has most car manufacturers as customers, it is avoiding any huge sale decrease due to Europe. I expect a 24$ share price by end of 2012.

UPDATE INT

Pure speculation here but if it is still halted tomorrow, it could mean that they were awaiting the final setlement date for all of thursday transaction. Surprisingly, the OTC is still allowing trades. (if you want to trade today, you can do it. Just call your broker and ask them to do the transaction on the other platform being otc. They may say no at first, but if they have the proper platform bridge they will assist you in selling or buying on the otc under the ITMTF ticker symbol as it is the same company)
It also could mean a record date of February 23rd (would be surprising) or moving to TSX as of march 1st.
In any case, the news are to be highly important as INT requested the halt, they had to get an extension approved by the exchange and IMHO it has absolutely nothing to do with Synchronica news this morning or Myriad news of last week. This MUST be highly significant and material to the company to get that kind of exception.
My guess: new partner on board that will generate great revenues for ORTSBO and this BEFORE the spin off creating a higher value for ORTSBO and INT.
Based upon social media valuation company value is based upon revenues and number of users. 100M users without any revenues is less interesting than 50M users with 25M$ in revenues ( roughly 0,50 cents per user per year) and again based upon actual valuation it could mean that INT (including Ortsbo) would be easily valued at 1,25B$ or 4$ per share.
Again PURE SPECULATION here but we never know what even a small kick at annual revenues could generate for INT.

UPDATE INT

Intertainment Media Inc : Could this be the birth of a new star?

Since a year now,(and more recently)  INT has become one of the most interesting stocks to watch on the market and there are so many things happening right now with INT that I think it is the right time to focus on what is really Intertainment Media Inc and really what are you exactly buying when you invest in INT.

If you are a penny flipper, you can stop reading now as you may not be interested in this investment opportunity but if you read, you may probably think about it twice before reselling for a penny or two!

INT is describing itself on their web site as:  ‘’We help brands engage by developing, nurturing, and investing in technologies’’ and based upon that statement it would be a mistake to only see INT as being Orstbo even if their recent great run-up from 0,46 to 0,83 in a matter of days sounds exciting.

But that may not be the end of this run up when you carefully look at what is INT and what it may have in store for us investors:

1)      First and fore most Orstbo that should be spun off in the coming months. This translator in more than 50 languages is a beauty to see in action. INT have produced many exciting opportunities over the last 3-6 months to display the incredible value of Ortsbo and more are coming. If you had the chance to assist live to one of these events in your OWN native language, it was phenomenal and almost error free. Sure there will still be some hiccup, as translation is never perfect even when done by human beings. Look at some import products from Asia and if you read (and try to understand) the French translation you could be in for major surprises.

In my opinion, the internal value of Orstbo has now grown over the total value of INT explaining the need to spin it out. The Orstbo value will also be determined by its ability to generate money but we should not forget that its principal value is in text translation and this could be added to so many different products and social media that it would take forever simply to list them all. But some of them are Facebook, Twitter, strategic relationship with Variety in streaming live events and many more.

Orstbo was at one point the 3^rd most popular downloaded application  at Apple Itune Store and is available to PC and Mac computers, mobile devices as well as all major search engine instant messaging chat platforms Microsoft, Google and Yahoo! along with Facebook, iChat, AIM, ICQ, Gadu-Gadu, Ovi, Lotus Sametime, LiveJournal and Tencent QQ and QQ International, China’s largest chat platforms and Twitter. (more info available at Ortsbo.com)

Orstbo had 20M users in October 2011 and 40M users in November 2011. Shall we extrapolate for December and January? Are 100M users possible? Even if I think it is a bit high and it is most probably around 75M users, it would still be a great achievement. Think about that: it is a lot of new users in a very short period of time and I would guess that total minutes spent is also on exponential rise. In my opinion, the country that will have the largest user base will be Asia and most especially China. Could you imagine being able to chat with someone in China using your own native language? That is truly incredible.

So, in my opinion, Orstbo development is done. Ortsbo is now ready to go on its own with its own management team and employees supervised by INT. At what price: I would think about 375M$ if user base is now 75M users and 500M$ is user base is over 100M$ (average price of 5$ per user). For comparison only, Facebook have 800M users and is valued at 60B$ to 100B$ for a value around 100$ per user. We also have to take into account that almost 37% of all ads in this internet world are going throughout Facebook and Orstbo is far far behind (at this time). That progression in user base is faster even than Facebook but we cannot compare Facebook with Orstbo as they serve 2 different purposes. One thing is sure, a first class translator plug in could easily work hand in hand with all our actual and future social media applications.

So. can we use same metrics than Facebook: I do not think so unless Ortsbo start significantly produce $ per user minutes or $ per user that would be comparable. BUT if Orstbo was to generate only 0,10 per user per month that would lead to a 10M$ monthly revenues or 125M$ per year. That is very very impressive and this would lead to a 1B$ value based only on those revenues.

2)   Ad Taffy:  Here are some examples of Ad Taffy Technoligies (from Ad Taffy web site):Ad Taffy is a location-aware display ad product featuring IP-based geo-location and click-to-call functionality. The units come in two formats. One is a click-to-locate rich media ad unit that generates a pop-up map where users can browse through the nearest brand locations to them (found using an IP geo-locator). The second is a static display ad with click-to-call functionality, activated when the user punches their phone number into the ad’s information field. When the user inputs their mobile or landline number, it connects their phone to the service provider’s landline, immediately establishing a connection. The format has obvious use for local service providers, but it is currently being used in the political arena by Brian Storseth, the incumbent for Westlock-St.Paul, who recently implemented a “Click To Call Me” display ad to connect his constituents with volunteers and a mapping function to call up nearby polling stations. The strategy provides an extra level of connectivity between him and constituents, Storseth said in a release.The Ad Taffy technology is ideal for someone like Storseth because it localizes and simplifies traditional web search, Brad Parry, CMO, Intertainment Media tells MiC. “If you were trying to find a local dealer from a traditional web ad, it would take you anywhere from 8 to 12 clicks to find that local dealer,” says Parry. “What our technology does is it finds your IP address automatically, pulls up a map that showcases where you are and all the retail service provider locations around you in just one click.”

So the value of Ad Taffy is solely based upon the number of company that will pay to use the advertising module. At this time definitely hard to evaluate as it is still in test mode until mid-2012. The demo on Ad Taffy site is impressive and if final results are like the one show, it will be a success.

3)      Itibiti / Knctr: This could be the next leader for INT. Imagine a platform where all your social media is interconnected. Very interesting and still with a growing number of customers and users. We have not seen new data relating to users and minutes spent  recently but I assume they are still working hard to increase the perceived value of the product. Growth of Knctr will not be compared to Ortsbo but I think it could be well received by users all around the globe. The interface is nice and you can even call in North America without charges. Real value of Knctr will also depend of the number of advertisers.

4)      Investment in Shiny Ads: The latest investment form INT. Shiny adds is directed toward the smaller advertisers and I think it could be easily attached to Orstbo. Could be very interesting on the long term.

5)      Investment in Active ImageNation (Cap That) still on a waiting list for the beta test.

6)      Lexifone communication systems: How about talking in your native language and being translated into the same number of countries than Ortsbo?  Dream?  Most probably not and even if the product is not totally perfect at this time, when that product become almost error free, well Ortsbo would then be a totally different software and attract a lot more customers.

7)      Investment in China Green Channel:  This statement by itself explain the value of this investment (from last quarter MD&A): ‘’The Company and CGCI will work together to bring Ortsbo and other Intertainment software applications to the Chinese market, utilizing CGCI’s media relationships in China’’

I hope you see the value in here as even if accounting value is hard to define, the long term effect on Ortsbo and other INT products is a major advantage. Where is the most populated area in the world : China. Who needs the most a translator plug in: China. Need I say more ??

8)      SaaS Technologies inc: Interesting and again could be linked to other INT divisions. Here is a description of SaAS: SaaS Technologies Inc. develops data exchange manager tools. It also offers data exchange manager custom modification, custom database design, and custom data transfer services. The company’s tool enables transfer data from any data source to another, as well as users to use its custom designed templates to increase speed for database platforms. It offers its tools as software as a service applications. The company accepts online orders.

9)      Deal Frenzy: Simply enter your email address and where you live and every morning you get the deal of the day email. It may not be the deal you were looking for, but it is a beginning. It will take some time to attract new advertisers and customers and again value is difficult to evaluate.

10)   Commobility: Another very interesting division. Commobility Inc. develops mobile software and key applications in real time semantic search, location based mobile video search and real-time communication platforms, and large scale mobile messaging and service delivery platforms. This division again could be integrated to Ortsbo and Knctr easily.

There are so many projects actually on INT plate that it is easy to lose track of all investments that INT are making right now. That company want to become the leader in ‘incubating’ new technologies and they are on track to achieve that at a really high pace.

It is easy to understand that with all those projects, Ortsbo NEED to be spun off to allow that great program to grow even faster.

So what is the real value of INT?

Ortsbo: If it has already achieved 100M users then estimate the value in the range of 500M$. Remember that the more it will be used, the greater will be the user number. That valuation does not take into account any add-ons or plug in that could be easily attached to Ortsbo but my impression is that Ortsbo will be combined with some other INT division to generate a lot more revenue per user per month and this could come by adding Adtaffy + Deal Frenzy and commobility to offer a highly personalize ad’s generation system. Imagine getting your own personalized ad’s that could differ depending where you are located.

Net equity in INT is around 28M$. Cash flow burning rate of 3,4M$ per quarter and 21M$ on hand so no liquidity problem.

There is still around 55M warrants and options that could dilute INT share furthermore if all investments are confirmed.

One of the worry could be the value of INT after the spinoff of Ortsbo but INT has confirmed that they will retain a significant portion of the new company and will pay a dividend of up to 30% to shareholders at the record date that will be set at the same time that the announcement. That dividend will be paid in shares of new company and will most probably make the difference in the share value of INT once deal is completed. With actual market in regard of social media, I would not be surprised to see shares of the new company rise rapidly and at the same time, shares of INT should continue to rise as they will be able to present the real net value of Ortsbo as an investment.

My best guestimate for INT value would be between 500M$ and 550M$ if Ortsbo users are over 100M and between 400M$ and 450M$ if between 75M and 100M users.

As usual you should never invest more than you can afford to lose and there is never anything wrong to take some profit off the table when occasion present itself. I still believe that INT will be very interesting to watch for the coming weeks as they definitely have major winners in their portfolio. If Mr Lucatch and his team are able to do for one other division what they have already done for Ortsbo, well this could very well be the birth of a great star.

François

ALERT INT

INT has been halted for one of the rare time in it's history and it is certainly not only to update the user numbers.....

What we may find out will be the details and the date of record for the coming ORTSBO IPO.

Remember that it has been mentionned that it will have to be approved by shareholders before getting into effect so i presume that the next agm will definitely contain in it's proxy all the details to approve or reject hte IPO and the conditions.

INT is already the major talk of town in bulletin boards and this only after about 1 hours of the stock being halted.

Guess what: INT will be the number 1 company talked about this week-end. Many will dream about $$$ but nobody will know for sure until we get ALL the details.

This company actually is worth between 450-500M$ based upon an IPO of 210M$ for Ortsbo. Do the math: if ORTSBO get an initial offering higer, then INT will be worth some more.

François

UPDATE Market

What a strange morning today. Looks like Greece is hurting north american markets a bit but the real question is: How would Greece affect your portfolio?

Banks: If they have no exposure to Greece then it is pannic selling

Automobile sector: Yes if recession worsen in Europe, then it will be affected

For many specific stocks like INT the change in their fundamentals does not come from Greece...So you pannic, you sell then you may be ending up loosing UNLESS it was to remove some gain from the table.

Get ready anyways for a very interesting monday.

ALERT INT

Another transaction for INT today where INT will now have a partnership with Syncronica. That means that Orstbo could be preloaded on many mobile devices. Syncronica has over 100 device manufacturer and mobile operator.

With this partnership, INT could be hitting the major leagues from now on and that by itself could dramatically change the value of Ortsbo IPO.

On the other hand, shares suffered a bit today but INT is still on an explosive pattern. Would that last deal not being liked by the markets, volume would have been a lot higher today with a drop much heavier than a mere 2 cents. That does not mean that tomorrow may not be another down day but i would think that INT is very stable and still within the right parameters for growth.

INT has been very silent since last announcement about raising the dividend up to 30% of Ortsbo pre-money and i suspect that they are actually in a forced silence.

Anytime you are to issue an IPO you have a certain black out period where you cannot issue public comments that could be seen as promotion for the company or it's product.

(from Wikipedia)

There are two time windows commonly referred to as "quiet periods" during an IPO's history. The first and the one linked above is the period of time following the filing of the company's S-1 but before SEC staff declare the registration statement effective. During this time, issuers, company insiders, analysts, and other parties are legally restricted in their ability to discuss or promote the upcoming IPO (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2005).

So this could explain the reason why it is excessively quiet about Ortsbo users number and mobile user numbers. If this is the case, expect a number of great NR following SEC approval for listing.

At this moment it is difficult to know when INT will file for an IPO but it had already announced their intentions and some of the parameters. As of Feb 3rd, INT has not officially filed for an IPO and you can track it at this adress:

http://www.hoovers.com/ipo-central/ipo-filings/100004162-1.html

The last user number update was on november 1st 2011 and we are now at about the 90 days mark.

There is 2 possibilities about this: either numbers have not continued to climb as rapidly, they have been forced into quiet mode since that date or they are in negociation to be acquired.

It looks like the first option is almost impossible with all the exposure INT got since that time so i would likely tend to believe that it is option #2 or option #3.

That being the case, 90 days would expire about in 5-10 days if we take into account holiday period. So i am now expecting full disclosure of users, profitability and all other important data in the coming days.

Also interesting to note that an insider sold about 60,000 shares 2 days ago but guess what: when you look at the exact options number that were excercised, you will find that 300,000 were bought and if you make the calculation, you will find that the quantity sold was covering the total amount needed to pay for his options and income tax related to his gains. So to me it is indicating something is coming in the most favorable way.

In all of those scenarios possible, remember that an IPO is coming for an unknow value but no less than 210M$ and a dividend up to 30% meaning up to 63M$ being close to 0,50 cents per share leaving a risk to reward ratio very very low. The downside for INT is around 0,25 and the upside is only limited by it's IPO and the details of the offer that will come rapidly.

I am not nervous about the last couple of days where INT has lost a bit of steam and some pennies and i would be more nervous about thinking to get into INT on the next 0,60 or less price tag.

As always never invest more than you can afford to lose and nobody ever went bankrupt by taking a profit.

Also note that i should be posting an update about INT very soon whenever i get clarification on some of the items that i will be reporting in that update.

ALERT INT

Since 2 days, volume and price has increased incredibly for INT.

The stock has achieve today 0,84 and incredible run from the 0,46 of 3 weeks ago.

Now, is this the storm or only the beginning of the great leg up leading up to the IPO announce?

Well, i think INT is getting back to where it belongs nad it is definitely not under 1$.

Today we have seen so far a lot of trades coming from day traders and penny flippers and that is ok. Let see if it will close at the high of the day or if it will retrace to 0,76 to 0,78.

If it was to close at 0,83 to 0,85 range it could very well mean that monday will be the real storm with volume well over 10M shares.

ALERT UWN

UWN has been approved for a gaming license in Nevada.

This is the 2nd license given to UWN this week and this will surely lead to new acquisitions or contracts and at the same time enhance company value.

ALERT INT

Another strategic alliance for INT where more and more potential customers will be in touch with Ortsbo.

By the way, have you look recently at ranking for Ortsbo in the world:

WOW !

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ortsbo.com

ALERT TVI

TVI has just released that they have applied for an MPSA in the area of Malusok and SE Malusok.

By getting the permit, TVI will be able to explore the area situated very close to actual Canatuan mining property.

Without a doubt, this could be a significant news to expand mine life at Canatuan.

It will also be very interesting to look at Q4 results as to wheter TVI  continued to add ore from outside the original resources area mentionned in the 43-101 as they had in Q3. Remember than in Q3, only 1/3 of ore processed was coming from proven ressources and by doing so, mine life was extended.

More to come  

UPDATE BPOP

BPOP has reported today their latest quarter results and even if net profit was a bit low, the trend is indicating that lending is on the rise and that loan quality is going higher also.

Very good indicators for the near future

Remember also that is not always a good thing to chase after a share on the rise (momentum trading). Sometimes it is worthty but most of the time you end up losing.

Be careful and i would wait for a down tip to buy some more. Future does look very very good for BPOP

UPDATE INT

We have seen today good price movement establishing a new base (unless something major happen) and this base is fixed at about 0,60.

Is that price correct? Well if we take into consideration that INT is actually worth 32M$ and that Ortsbo should bring in around 140M$ INT is today trading at book value.

There is still place for a good upward movement but i suspect we will need another good NR to move north of 0,75 as resistance seems to be really high.

Let's see tomorrow how it unfold.

UPDATE INT

We have seen today some churn in INT shares right after it hit 0,65$. I would tend to say that it was a regular situation where we do not have yet all the details and that on friday many were able to buy at 0,455 giving them close to 50% profit in only 1 day (or even less).

For most traders, it is normal and correct to take some off the table when situation arise where you made so much profit in so less time.

The value of INT does not make any doubt at this point and we could expect a release of all details pretty soon and at the actual price it would be very surprising that a downtrend will follow the next release.

Will the share rise tomorrow??? Good question and it will depend upon the number of buyers compare to the number of sellers.

Will it be exciting: yes it will be again but if you took your profit today, enjoy the ride ! 

UPDATE INT

Is INT (CVE) recent share price movement sustainable?

This is a very interesting question. INT has been on my top pick list for 2012 for some time now (November 2011)as they seem to have created a very interesting product called Ortsbo capable of translating instantly in 53 different languages.

That by itself is very interesting and even if the quality of this product is not 100% on the translation side, I must agree it is very good and well designed.

I was watching their latest presentation in all those languages simultaneously and it was really good. Even the plug in for Outlook is doing good.  

But IS there a demand for this kind of product?

Based upon the incredible high number of unique users (that is on a rapid rise every month) it would suggest that indeed there is a great demand for it.

Now, the challenge that Intertainment Media is facing is how to make great revenues from this unique product AND that takes time.

Last Friday (January 20^th 2012) the sudden share price rise was in fact driven by an update from INT stating that the spinoff of Ortsbo was imminent and that actual shareholders would get a 30% of pre-money that Ortsbo would attract and paid a share dividend from the new company created.  That was enough to see an increase of 29% in about 3 hours.

Last year at the end of march 2011, it took about 2 weeks to see share price climb from a bit over 40 cents to a whopping 3,35$.

Unfortunately many investors lost their shirt as the share price went down to 0,28 cents  early October 2011.

Are we at the beginning of a new leg up where this time INT will climb to a 4 or 5$ share? Think about that: if INT would climb to 5$, it would mean that INT is valued at roughly 1,4 billion $. Is that reasonable? We must not forget also that they have roughly 47M warrants and 15M options for a possible total of 327M shares issued if all warrants and options are exercised and would now place INT value at 1,6B dollars. Based on the fact that actually the social media hype allows a multiple of close to 100 times the revenue estimated for evaluation purpose, INT will have to generate 16M$ in yearly revenues if we want to take for granted that 1,6B$ is a possibility. IS THIS POSSIBLE?

Last quarter they generated 1,3M$ in gross revenues and it is only the beginning.  

They have 21M$ in cash on hand and are burning a little over 3M$ per quarter. So they should be ok for the next year and could even add up some more buyout of interesting technology.

They actually control many divisions and the most interesting one is what they call ‘The new Media’ division mainly consisting of:  Ortsbo, Ad Taffy, Deal Frenzy, itiBiti and Commobility.

There is a lot of very good info in the MD&A posted on Sedar end of December that I will not replicate here but here is the address:

http://sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=FR&docClass=7&issuerNo=00015693&fileName=/csfsprod/data125/filings/01844214/00000001/i%3A%5CSedar%5CIntertainmentMediaInc%5C2011Financials%5C122311MDA.pdf

Over all, I think that INT has a great future especially if they retain a good chunk of Orstbo. With all those acquisitions they made recently it would not be impossible to see major advertisers come on board. As an example, how much money would a company like Mcdonalds invest in a pop-up add that would appear on every user of Ortsbo offering a free coffee? At the same time users could get the direction to the next McDo restaurant in their OWN LANGUAGE, anywhere in the world at the same time?

The possibilities are endless and only limited by management imagination.

Can they achieve 16M yearly in revenues?  Yes they can

Can they achieve it this year? No I do not think so

Do they have the right management? Yes they seem to be really dedicated to INT success.

Do they have the right customer base? Yes and increasing by the minute

Do they have enough money to continue expansion and creativity? Yes they do

Do they have competitors? Yes they have but none as integrated as they are

Is this the right timing for a spin off? Yes as long as they keep control over Ortsbo

What is the value of INT shares: If revenues stays on the same track as they are, they could end up this year with revenues of  (for the 2012 quarters )  1,5M$, 1,8M$, 2,2M$ and finally 2,7M$ for a 8,2M in 2012 revenues. Based on that figure and a 100 time revenues INT could be valued at around 820M$ at the end of 2012 for a 2,51$ per share price when fully diluted.

This value is based only on what has been disclosed as of December 2011 and does not take into account the intellectual value of INT, trademarks etc.

 Is INT at 0,60 cents a good investment? WOW sure it is. If you like a bit the roller coaster associated with speculation combined with some great value you are in for a heck of a ride and for the dreamer in you, what would happen if Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Facebook and those really involved in this social media market were deciding to acquire INT. It could be the biggest share price war since a very long time with results only dreamers have in the back of their mind. But even if it was to break 2,50$ it would still be over a 400% gain.

How about that!!!

Disclosure: I am long on INT. As usual never invest more money than you can afford to lose and always discuss with your financial advisor before investing to be certain the investment is suitable for you.

ALERT INT

After reviewing today's release, it seems more than likely that Ortsbo is almost ready to be spinned off INT with a dividend now sitting at 30% of money received for it and paid in shares of the new company.

What does that mean? We could see a major price hike on monday followed by a large profit taken either end of day monday or early tuesday.

You judge by yourself and there is never anything bad to pocket some profit made. The best is always to get free shares and let the rest goes 'on the house'

In any case, be careful and get ready for an exicting beginning of the week. If you are not yet in INT, i would wait to see how market goes early next week. It is most of the time a bad idea to chase a share only based on momentum.

ALERT DRL

Have you seen Q4 results for DRL ???

Fantastic compared to Q3 and last year. Finally some great profit.

Expect a great leg up from tomorrow for a 4-5 days.

Alert UUU

Very good increase in sales and production reported today. Expect start of a nice leg up

ALERT CTL

With their new refinancement plan and due to the fact that dilution will be so enourmous, CTL is no longer a speculative move.

On the other hand, if shares drop to the 0,005 tomorrow and you still believe that on the longer term that move will be positive, it could be a good time to pick up some (100,000 shares will cost 500$ at 0,005) and if shares goes higher, it could be the time to take some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI has won an injunction against the open pit mining ban.

See the complete release here.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tvi-pacific-inc-wins-injunction-against-ordinance-that-would-ban-new-open-pit-mining-2012-01-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Hope you did bought some more at 0,035 or 0,04 as it could very well be the beginning of a good leg up for TVI. Remember that Balabag is also coming soon.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just completed his 2nd zinc shipment of the year valued 4,7M$.

So TVI is now getting very close to a 100M$ revenues company and we should hear soon about Balabag feasability study.

Remember that the project is now safe from any ban on open pit mining as per provincial legislation.

I think 2012 will rock this one up

ALERT LVS

LVS has been advised that the investigation has been concluded and that no further action will be taken against the Company at this time in Honk Kong. Still more investigations are underway but this is great news.

Complete story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577106401261860634.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

ALERT CTL

Based upon today's new in regard of interest payment being deferred, it is preferable to hold on to your position.

If you bought recently, your average cost would be in the 0,05 to 0,06 and the possibilities are still very high for a default or a bankruptcy procedures. Therefore, i would use any rally to sell some shares to try to obtain a close to 0 average cost (the free shares concept) and hold to them until final resolution.

But with the actual pulp and paper problems all around the globe, the chances that CTL would get some kind of re-financement without wiping all actual shareholder value, is very very low.

CTL is now a highly risky speculative buy and for the coming weeks it will be into the hands of speculators.

You can play the game but be extremely cautious. Odds are not in CTL favor (or shareholder favor).

As of today, Canadian dollar has lost about 10% sinc July, demand has been stabilizing somewhat and this quarter should have been at least break-even. So what happen? They had about 18M$ in cash and close to 108M$ in credit line available. What else do they know that we do not at this time? How went the first 2 months of Q4 ? Are they really that bad? What is 2012 outlook ?


I will ask and try to obtain answers.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.

ALERT UWN

UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos ) will published their 2nd quarter for 2012 next week on the 15th and this could really well be the beginning of a quarterly net profit era.

Based upons results from Q1 2012 and last year Q2 results, the following items should reflects improvement

- interest expenses should have decreased based upon new loan agreement with Wells Fargo
- Total revenues should have increase because of the first complete quarter of Red Dragon

So, even if gross revenues from other properties were to stay flat compare to last year, overall revenues should have increased by a 5-10%, interest expenses should have decrease significantly and adjusted EBITDA should be in the 800K$ to 950K$ range and net profit in the 0,01 to 0,02 cent per share .

Then if you calculate the actual net value per share, even by removing completely the good will value, UWN is still valued at 14M$ with on hand cash (including restricted cash) over 7,5M$ for a 1,03$ value per share and a 2,26$ value per share if we include the good will value.

I still believe that we could be in for results that would beat my expectations and therefore providing a good share value increase. Do not forget also that the slot machine run deal that will close in Q3 2012 will add great profit and if Washington was to allow slot machines in their state in a near future, UWN could be set to sky rocket rapidly as they would be well positionned to be licensed for a 1250 machine and a 85M$ in revenues increase (based upon their last presentation). Now imagine how the net profit would look like ! UWN share value increase that would arise from a decision like this one could be similar to the one experimented by MPEL due to revenues increase in Macau.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.  

ALERT TVI

Very good news this morning in regard of Balabag project as it will not suffer from the same problems as Canatuan with tentative bans from local due to a provincial resolution that Bayog cannot prohibit legitimate mining firms to excercise their rights over mining sites.

This is most probably the best new to hit TVI since many months.

To get the complete story, here is the link:

http://interaksyon.tv/article/19073/zambo-del-sur-govt-invalidates-order-banning-open-pit-mining-in-bayog-town

Also all other very interesting news are available on TVI official web site under ORDINANCE.

Still do not forget to visit my friends at:

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT INT

Some time ago  CVE:INT was added into my top speculative move and today, INT will be added to my top pick list for 2012.

The reasonning behind that is the fact that their product (namely Ortsbo) has had an customer based increase absolutely phenomenal and that the management team is now focused to provide a complete solution in the entertainment sector.

With all the moves that were done recently, it would be very surprising that revenues would not follow.

If INT was to achieve an EPS of only 0,01 or 0,02, with the actual evaluation of social medias like Facebook being at about 50 times earning, it is easy to believe that INT would be easily north of 1,75 rapidly.

Naturally at this stage of their growth it is still largely speculative but customer interest is there, investor interest is there and product/value is there.

If management continue to do what they had in the past, well there is absolutely no reason why INT could not be a 400% winner in 2012.

This is why INT is now one of my pick for 2012.

Naturally do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always always take some profit when price indicate that.

TVI UPDATE

TVI completed another shipment today for another 12M$ in revenues. Great Job.

Now here is my update in regards of Q3 2011

Q3 results were surprising to say the least.

I was very surprise by the sudden decrease in production cost. From 1,65$ to 1,33$ was a major improvement (roughly 20%)  in 1 quarter.

Naturally that improvement trend is not sustainable and I think that cost will remain at about 1,33$ for the next 1 or 2 quarters .

The great cost improvement was essentially the major factor allowing TVI to achieve 3M$ in profit during Q3. If they can ship copper and zinc on time, TVI could again show a good profit in Q4  (before oil asset write off).

But the biggest factor that strokes me was the fact that mine life was decreased only by .1 during the quarter due to the blend with mineral that was not include in the original ore reserves. If that trend was to continue, it could easily expand Canatuan mine life by a couple of years and this would be fantastic.

Look also at gold and silver produced as the grades were quite high and the best of the year.

The overall shareholder equity has increased by almost 10M$  compared to December 2010 and accumulated deficit is now standing at only 1,4M$. This is a very good indicator of TVI’s financial health at this moment.

In regard to the cash on hand, 23M$ is a huge pile of money and even if all low interest short term loans were to be repaid, they would still be left with money in the bank.

What it is telling me is that the cash flow generated by Canatuan is enough to finance Balabag bootstrap without additional long term loan at high cost.

We should not also underestimate Malasok and SE Malasok as they could encounter significant reserves there also. It would be very surprising that Canatuan would be the only part of the area having enough mineral to be a profitable mining site.

TVI also mentioned that they were still pursuing other possibilities and they now have the money needed to go ahead with some other major mining companies out there. It would be purely speculative at this time to name them or try to identify the projects but looking at all the different and recent press releases there is at least one interesting project where TVI could be associated with.

In regard to Canatuan, we all know what happen with the provincial government and that a ban was established to take effect in November 2012. TVI has mentioned that they will take all possible legal actions against that illegal ban and I think they have a good chance to win their case and if otherwise, I think that Balabag will already be in operation at that time avoiding some months without any revenues.

Also interesting to note is that TVI is for the second quarter in a row a 100M$ company and this is absolutely not reflecting in the share value. Again major price disconnect between share value and share price and still a lack of interest from the buyers as volume is unbelievably low.

TVI sold Alaska right after the quarter for a price almost double of what was paid for Alaska, Niger and Philippine properties when you include all the credits they also received. Naturally some write off will have to take place but it is not affecting cash position being only book value for properties that have been sold. The high interest loan was also repaid in full. (LIM loan)

Now, for Balabag, it is clear that the 43-101 is late and has been pushed many times. But is this something that they absolutely needs? For the investors’ confidence it is a yes but because they do not need any financing to develop Balabag, it is not the most important thing at this time. Based upon remarks and financial statements page 20,  (item 15) it is clearly stated that Balabag expenses have started to be capitalized. I think the message right there is very clear: Balabag will be a mine!

So what are the different scenarios for 2012:

BEST: Ban on Canatuan is lifted and TVI is able to increase mine life to about 3 years with ore not coming from indicated resources. Canatuan should be able to generate another 10M$ in net profit per year and a 100M$ gross revenues. Then Balabag should be in production near year-end 2012 adding up a 5-10M$ in revenue (maybe a 5000 ounces in Q4 2012).

WORST: The ban is not lifted and Canatuan must cease operations end of 2012. TVI will still had pocketed 7-8M$ in net profit and 80M$ in gross revenues. Q4 would be a bit difficult with only 1 shipment from Canatuan before closure and minor revenues from Balabag.

If we add up all the other possibilities from JV, new prospects, Tamarok, Malasok etc, it would be very surprising that TVI would not be able to succeed in 2012. It is third world mining and we never know exactly what could happen (or we would be all very rich persons) but I still think that TVI has a great chance of success over there as they already prove with their Canatuan operations and no matter what will happen in Canatuan, TVI will still be a profitable mining company and results from Balabag by itself will be a lot more valuable than the actual value affixed to TVI. Producing gold in the Philippines has nothing to do with operations in North America. Cost to produce gold is very low and ore reserves are there. I do not see any reason for TVI to fail at that project. Remember that TVI has a lot of experience in producing gold (referring to Gossan mines from 2004-2008)

In conclusion I think that TVI is still a good buy, Q4 could be another solid quarter (before 1 time event) and future is bright.

PS: DO not forget to visit my friends at :

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT CTL

CTL (tsx) has been added to my top pick speculative plays.

They have announced today a major 200M$ loss BUT at the same time their quarter is a lot better than Q2. With a bit of luck they could have ended up break even.

Q4 is normally a strong quarter for CTL and i am now wondering what was the real reason to write off their mill COMPLETELY on Q3 instead of Q4??? (as normally companies would do to clera the numbers for the coming year)

Their results altough not totally impressive, were in the right direction and unless they totally miss their Q4, they should come out with a small profit in Q4.

This is their last presentation and it is absolutely interesting (in regards of the facts)

http://www.catalystpaper.com/sites/default/files/2011-11-14earnings-prest_0.pdf

Time will tell but at this level (0,075) i am a buyer. Risk is very low and possibilities are great: take over, profit margin increases etc. You can probably mention 10 more.

I was a buyer at 0,25, was still at 0,15 and now at this bargain price i will definitely reduce my average cost a lot.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing

UPDATE DRL

What a huge miss did DRL posted for it's Q3. Totally unpredictable.

Hope the down slope will stop rapidly. Already closing near the 1$ limit. If it goes under, it could signal time to sell some to limit losses and get some liquidity to buy it back cheaper.

I still think that DRL will be part of a deal to restraint the number of banks in Puerto Rico.

ALERT DRL

What a bad quarter and a huge miss for DRL. Market reaction was correct given the loss at -,023 and estimates were -0,01.

Will have to minotor closely and take decision if it goes under 1$. If it does, it would be time to unload slowly but surely. It could even be a good time to sell on a positive dip.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just announced that they have sold their Alaska oil assets for 16M$. When you add about 5M$ received in credit recently it means that they have received close to 2 times what was paid for 1 year ago. Not a bad deal overall.

It also means a couple of things: Philippines oil assets are now free and if anybody was wondering how they would finance Balabag, well now we may have the answer.

Also very important to note is that 6M$ loan will be repaid totally.

That is a very prudent move considering the fact they would have had to invest more money with the partners to finally know what was lying under North Tan and I think that any $ that would have been spent out there would not have been the best move especially when you need money to finally build and start the Balabag project.

Very interesting also is the note in regard to a enhance join venture or an acquisition. Is there anything else in the work?

Q3 MD&A will be very very interesting to analyse !

UPDATE UWN

UWN will issue more shares and dilute somewhat actual shareholders but keeping in mind that this is to pay for a new acquisition, it does make sense as dilution factor should be less than profit upgrade.

It has been way oversold and if you were awaiting a dip to get into UWN, it could very well be the time.

Welcom WPX to my top picks

With announcement of a NI43-101 indicating a fantastic potash reserve, the is no doubt that WPX will be a winner this year or early 2012. (see their press release)

They have already mentionned that they hope to advise about a strategic partnership before year end and i think that in conjonction with that latest release, it will increase a lot their share value.

Still a bit speculative but great return in sight.

Estimated value before year end 2011: 2,25$ and 6$ by year end 2012 if merger (or JV) happen early 2012.

Welcome aboard WPX.

ALERT BPOP

Afeter an incredible volume of 54M shares traded on friday (average is around 10M shares) today has been somewhat difficult BUT it seems that finally some have read properly the last quarter results: THEY MADE NICE PROFIT.

Sure was less than last quarter but when you remove 1 time item and add special commercial loss provision of this quarter, well BPOP is in very very good shape.

With consolidation that will be coming in Puerto RIco (there are too many banks) this will only help BPOP.

ALERT UWN

Nevada Gold and Casino

UWN has just signed an agreement to purchase a slot route operator in Deadwood for 5,2M$.

When this transaction will be completed, UWN will ad about 1,25M$ in EBITDA (within 3-4 months).

This is a large EBITDA increase and i find it interesting that they are now into the slot machine business just a couple of weeks before Washington starts wondering about the possibility of legalizing these in the state where UWN does have many small casinos. Hummmmmmmmmmm.

To follow closely !

UWN UPDATE

Did you notice?

UWN has been slowly but surely climbing back to the 2$ mark on steady volume. For sure it is far from the 100K volume they saw some weeks ago but based upon some technical data relative movement is showing improvement in the number of buyers and relative strength is getting better.

Keep in mind that with a low number of shares available, this one could fly rapidly.

Also please remember that on Oct 10th Wells Fargo agreed to refinance 11M$ of their existing debt and extend the remaining 4M$ until 2015. The loan (that will mature in 2014) will retire outstanding debt that were to mature in 2012 and 2013 giving a very interesting position to UWN to use their next 3 years cash flow to do some more acquisitions and increase substantially their annual gross revenues. It is very very interesting to note that UWN was able to capture Wells Fargo attention and based upon the fact that Wells Fargo is one of the biggest USA bank i would not be surprised to see their analysts pick up UWN story and that being the case, i would prefer to be an actual investor instead of trying to catch them up later on the rise. If UWN would have been researching a great business partner, they may have just found them. Wells Fargo has been long time recognized as a bank that understand the small to mid-cap size business needs and have been involved around the USA for many of these small loans. Wells Fargo is one of the most well managed bank (they even refused TARP but were force to accept it) and especially now where capital available is still hard to find, I am convinced that they did their home works before approving a loan to UWN. By itself it is a confirmation of the very good financial situation of UWN

This change by itself should give UWN some fuel to achieve my share price expectation of 4$ within the end of the year. I know it sounds very aggressive but a great result for Q2 2012 could be enough and as mentioned in my last evaluation I expect that UWN could generate 16M$ in gross revenues, 1M$ in EBITDA and a 0,03 to 0,05 per share net profit. Anything over would be the catalyst to 4$ share price rapidly and with the next release due somewhere in mid-December, Christmas party could be earlier this year!!!

They have a great business model (almost unique) and management seems to be very passionate about their plan.

I remember that some time ago (in 2010) I mentioned a casino pick that was very interesting in march 2010 (MPEL) and it was trading at about 4,38$ at that time. MPEL achieved 16$ earlier this year for a close to 400% run. I was really surprised when Jim Cramer (CNBC) mentioned that he did not saw MPEL coming. So get ready for a second hit in the casino business. UWN will rock.

So for these reasons, UWN has now been upgraded to #4 for top pick for the remainder of 2011 and Q2 report will speaks for my 2012 year picks dues around January 15^th 2012.

(Still thinks they are missing a letter in their ticker name: should be UWiN)

UPDATE TVI

TVI reported today that they have completed shipment #24 for gross revenues close to 15M$ and over 1,25K tons of copper concentrate remaining in inventory. Also worth noting is the total zinc already produced that should be shipped end of december. Actually this is money in the bank.

The value of the shipment is very high when you look at copper price today against 6 weeks ago.

If cost remained under control (even a bit lower) we could have some positive surprise when Q3 results are published.

I had estimated about 1M$ in loss but could be a little less.

Interestingly, even when copper price have dropped by more than 25% recently, the share price (even if actually very low and disconnected against share value) the share price did remain pretty stable.

It would not need a lot to move higher as resistance over 0,06 is really low.

UWN the reason behind this new top pick

When small is beautiful: That could be the story of Nevada Gold & Casino Inc.

When I indicated that this corporation was under my radar last year (stock was trading at 1,07$ at that time) I was far from believing that suddenly with some great acquisitions, that company could double its share price and that I would still believe that it was only the beginning. Think about that: market crash, unemployment in the 9%, no economic growth and your company double its market cap??? You definitely must have done something right and here is what I found and by the way based upon recent market activity, I am no longer the only one that is starting to be interested into that success story.

Naturally we should not compare UWN to some largest company like LVS, MPEL or WYNN as they are clearly not competitors. But it is very important to note that the entire entertainment sector has been very profitable lately especially in gambling outside the United States and this is where UWN does make a difference. They have been able to create their own niche in a very difficult market. So, what is this all about?

UWN owns and manage small scale casinos almost directed toward the clientele of Mr. everybody that does some gambling for fun and in an environment very friendly where customer seems to be the number one priority. One point that I should mention is the fact that all employees from their newest acquisition (Red Dragon) went to a customer service training seminar almost immediately after they finalized the acquisition.

It would also be very difficult to compare with any other company as there is not too many that are operating that kind of mini casinos and operating more than 1.

So, what should we expect form UWN ?

They have the intention to acquire some casinos in Nevada and it could add some 3-4M$ for each unit they buy BUT it could add to the total debt already in the 15M$ range.

And debt is one problem to come with some being due in 2012 but their latest association with Wells Fargo to find a refinancing solution could ease that one out if negotiations are successful. If they were to find a new loan agreement covering all the debt and at better terms and at somewhat a bit lower interest rate, this could give them a break and allow them to breathe easier.

On the other hand they have the right to issue up to 20M$ in stock and this would cover more than the total debt load leaving even some more money for other acquisitions.

If UWN consolidate their actual assets and integrate them rapidly they should be able to generate a lot more net revenues and be ready for some more expansion AS LONG as they do not have to overspend in company management. At this point, it would not be wise to get that expansion in areas that they do not operate actually due to overhead expenses.

So here are my expectations for Q2 2012 if everything goes as expected:

-          Net EBITDA of 1M$ (increase provided by increase in earnings, expenses staying at current level in % , lower management and legal expenses)

-          Earnings of 16M (due to the revenue increase from Reg Dragon)

-          Net revenue per share of 0,03 to 0,05

They will definitely continue to be very aggressive in their development and as long as they stay within their ‘know how’ range there are no doubt that UWN will be a great winner in 2012. Markets will stabilize, unemployment will get better and consumer confidence will be brighter. All the needed elements will be in place to send UWN on track for a record year.

For these reasons, UWN is now a top pick for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012. Price expectations are within 2,90$ and 3,70$ before December 31^st 2012 for a decent 50% to 100$ return.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing.

Week ahead

It will be very interesting to watch the first couple of trading days. last week was a great one were even unemployment was unable to derail the bull but i would not be very surprise to see at least one day where market will try to test who will win: bears...bulls....

TVI should give some update on the expected shipment. I think we should know by wednesday.

Regional banks could continue to rise modestly but surely this week (BPOP, FBP, DRL) and i still think there are some rumors going on in the Puerto Rico banking sector where 2 should merged: DRL and FBP. Who will buy the other ??? Either case we win

LVS, MPEL and our newly member UWN should continue to rise this week. Keep a clsoe eye on UWN. After releasing a very good quarter last week, some volatility was seen on thursday and friday when some profit taking happened. Expect a rebound.

BZH could be helped by the numbers to be released this week and at this time it is pretty undervalued.

Lot more action to come so stay tune.

WPX has been added to UNDER THE RADAR picks

WPX:TO could be a great addition if it's share price continues to hold in the 1,15$ to 1,30$ range. Otherwise, if price continues to decline or if insider selling continues, i would wait until 0,75 to get into that company in a very agressive way.

At this time, it is not clear of the profitability of their project and until the feasability plan is completed it will be difficult to assess the real value of this one.

For the moment it is more of a speculative but based upon the 43-101 it could be profitable and there could be a lot of volatility between now and the feasibility project that should be released mid 2013.

As usual any interesting event should move WPX from under the radar to a top pick but the conditions needed are the following (as for any other stocks UNDER THE RADAR):

- fluctuation of share price minimal to avoid trying to catch a falling knife
- a sudden price increase at this stage would be considered speculative move and wihout a press release it will not be considered to be moved to TOP PICKS
- Regular press releases concerning updates on land, feasibility advances could trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Price stabilization and lack of volatility could also trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Insiders buying in large quantity would move WPS to TOP PICK after prices is stabilized
- Volume increase (buying pressure) for some weeks could move it to TOP PICK
- Any other VERY positive news could also move WPX to top pick

As usual, never invest more money than you can afford to lose and ALWAYS do your own due diligence before investing in any company.

ALERT UWN

Their Q1 results are really impressive as this is normally a quiet quarter. Based upon these results, expect another good share price increase.

After listening to their quarterly conf call, i can only imagine what would happen if Washington would allow slot machines to be part of casinos in that state. There are no promises about that but with State finances being what they are (really bad) i would not be surprised to see some kind of approval in return for some good tax $.

Volume is still high (for UWN) and i think that Q2 will be again better due to their new acquisition gettting good steam.

A complete review should come sometimes this week-end. Stay tune! 

ALERT UWN

Volume as picked up recently and there is a lot of buying pressure. Either somebody know something or many more investors are now discovering UWN.

No matter which one it is, it seems very positive.

OCNF is delisted from my top picks

Based upon recent developments and economy still lagging, OCNF is no longer part of my top picks and my position has been sold.

UWN a diamond in the rough. Welcome to my list

Ok...Economy is still in the negative territory and finding great value stocks is still very difficult. But UWN could be the next one in the gaming industry to answer my criterias.

They will be releasing their numbers for Q1 by september 15th and i expect some very very good news.

EBITDA is increasing faster than gross revenues and this is a sign of good management.

Their last quarter did showed high increase in all aspect of the business and i am almost convinced that Q1 to be reported will be another positive surprise.

Complete analysis will follow their 2012 Q1 reports but to me UWN will rock the place!