INT What's going on?

This is very interesting to see INT shares going down and down and down again day after day when it should be the complete opposite.

INT just had a fantastic event last week end with Ortsbo, their flagship product, that allows instant translation in 50 languages at the same time.

The event was phenomenal as when watching you were able to switch language at any time and continue to received translation in the selected language. That was simply amazing.

INT also announced that they will soon be adding voice translation to Ortsbo creating an unique product.

INT also announce that they will spin off Ortsbo from INT at a date that will be announce at the next AGM.

INT also indicated that they want to be trading on the TSX NOT the venture market anymore.

INT had at the end of December over 107M unique visitors and honestly that number should have risen to more than 140M already.

INT will be translating live feed from Cannes Festival and this by itself will sky rocket the user numbers.

So where is the problem, is it revenues??? NO...Surprisingly enough in the media world the most important factor is not the revenues during the first couple of year but the user numbers. The more people use a product, the more companies will be interested in to advertise or pay for that product. Interesting to point out that Ortsbo revenue stream is not only based upon ads that users click on but could very well be from licensing the product to others corporation that need a 50+ languages instant translator: tv shows, movies, events transalation, chatting rooms, mobile phones application etc. The list is too long and the applications are endless. Imagine a product that would eliminate the language barriers. That product is here now and it is called Ortsbo.

So why is it still not going up like crazy: volume and number of transactions.

INT actually is in talk with many funds manager and other private investors for the Ortsbo spin off coming soon and i  am convinced that those players CANNOT buy INT at the same time that they are having a tour at INT strategy and results as they would become insiders.

I think that when Q1 results will be released around end of May, this could very well be the signal for a major volume increase not because of the results but because that will be the end of black out period for all insiders, major investors and fund managers. Remember that all corporations have a blackout period where they are NOT allow to trade on their securities for legal reasons. Even during that blackout period the company generally speaking is not allow to issue options to insiders. I should also point oout that at this time INT cannot promote it's products and are very limited in what they can say about INT as a whole. They are dealing with TSX and their rules cannot be override. When that process is over, we will know for sure how well INT and Ortsbo are doing and from ther, we will most probably get back to the usual news released about results in a timely manner. Expect a lot of advertising about Ortsbo and INT right after TSX approbation for the proxy documents and listing of INT on the major exchange.

So is INT goin down forever? No, at the present time it is the retail investor who is keeping INT at the level where it is and the day traders that avoid major ups or down. Retail investors are getting really nervous and many do not fully understand what they are buying. Then at first sign of weakness they leave the ship. As for the day traders, well they will flip the stock for a couple of pennies each time they can do it. 20,000 shares flipped for 3 cents profit is 600$ and for most retail day trader, it is a good profit for 1 or 2 day of trades.

INT and Ortsbo will have their day soon. Get ready for it. Still not the time to buy the champaign, but you can at least start to select which one you will drink that day !

DISCLOSURE: I am long on INT and own a large number of shares. I do not have any intentions to sell any of those in the short or medium term but i could add to my position if stock continues to dip.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before buying any stock. 

ALERT DRL

Doral Financial released their Q1 results yesterday and this was interesting to say the least.

They received over 110M$ in tax credit and they decided to apply that amount to a loan loss reserve.

Even if the move was a very prudent one, i think it has deceived the market a bit as many were expecting a gain or 0,79 per share and instead they did about 0,01.

Looking only at profit per share it coul dmean an incredible miss but i think that the move was very prudent when we look at the actual situation.

What we should still consider is the fact that a loan loss reserve is a reserve...not a loss in itself and if situation in Puerto Rico start to recover, DRL could easily reduce that reserve and turn in into profit.

I am curious on one mention about the new land and home evaluation that they received. If the decrease is as large as mentionned, what would the other Puerto Rico banks do? Do they use the same evaluation and if not will they have to?

If the situation means that they will have to re-evaluate their portfolio, it could mean larger losses for BPOP as they are the biggest lender in Puerto Rico. So be careful with the latest one.

TVI PACIFIC Ray of light

Q1 results have been as expected with only 1 shipment but with recent changes in the number of shipments for the balance of the year (going to 2 per quarter) and a lesser penalty for quality of copper, this could be seen as a ray of light coming.

Naturally the biggest problem TVI is facing right now is the inability of the Phillippine govt to take action and fix once for all the mining policies that exist or should i say not enforced.

Until such action from the govt is taken, we will have a share price moving sideways between 0,025 and 0,04.

The positive side is that TVI still have many projects on the table getting ready to be officially started like Balabag, Canatuan mine life extension and surely many more.

TVI does have the money to either financ thes start up projects or even make a larger acquisition / join venture to increase shareholder value.

But at this time TVI is still a HOLD until such changes are implemented by the govt.

I do still expect a major rebound whenever this problem is fixed as i still believe that the projects are larger than the actual problems.

The results that will come from the actual quarter will be interesting to look at: 2 copper shipments, lower penalties and 1 zinc shipment.

I would then expect a profit in Q2 by about 2M$.

PLAY OF THE DAY GPL (Great Panther Silver Limited)

Looking for a pure play on silver? This is the one.

I try to buy on the dip at all times and the recent share price drop linked to silver price is great...

That stock has dropped by 20% in only a matter of days even if their results are really good. No doubt that this one is greatly oversold.

I am in at current level ( 1,50$ to 1,65) if silver stabilize and looking for a 2,25$ share price on short term and 3,75$ on a medium term.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY AA (Alcoa)

This is a question of : What do you believe???

If you think that Europe is going down and that Asia is done then Alcoa is not for you but if you do believe that even if China was to slowdown (...) to 7% and that Europe will be not as bad as expected, then Alcoa could be a great stock pick. Only 6 weeks ago it was well over 10$ and company fundamentals has not changed that much even if Alcoa expect some kind of slowdown for the rest of the year.

Alcao is a major player the world and we have always been told to buy on the dip. Is that dip deep enough or do you think it is only the beginning???

As usual do not invest money you cannot afford to lose and always do your oue due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY YHOO (Yahoo)

With all the reshuffling going on at this time, i think that it is the right time to get back in Yahoo. They have ousted their current CEO resigning and will replace him with Levinsohn as interim. Based upon his success with Fox digital business and the fact that they have now 3 new directors, the result will definitively increase shareholder value if all management decide to work toward the same direction. Yahoo shares have beeen hammered recently and the possible monetization of Alibaba could create some value for the shares of Yahoo.

At current level i will be in and projected exit price at about 17$.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY FITB (FirthThird Bancorp)

Very nice regional bank that will most probably be hammered early on this morning but this one has nothing to do with JP Morgan and will only suffer short term. It has one of the lowest P/E ratio and is very very profitable.

I will be in around 13,50$ and out over 14,25$

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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THE PLAY OF THE DAY MB.TO (Mega Brands)

This is a fascinating toys company that is now turning the corner toward profitability.

MB just released their Q1 results: sales are increasing and profit is improving. Mega Brand is not out of the woods yet but normally Q1 is not the leading quarter and i expect that Q2 and Q3 will be much much greater especially with their new licensing deal with Mattel where Mega Brand will create products under the Barbie and Hot Wheel brand.

The stock has been hammered this year and i expect a good leg up toward the 8$ mark.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY DIS (The Walt DisneyCompany)

Well this is not my actual target stock BUT with market being what it is, it is preferable to stick with winners and this is a big one.

If  DIS is able to see share value increase (due to great numbers reported) imagine what it could do in a better market situation...

Take some time to look at their last report. It is very very good.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos)

I have no choice than coming back to this tiny very interesting company because at this level it is a GREAT play.

It will be really interesting to see what the new acquisition will bring in, profit wise, but in the meantime, it is actually well undervalued and oversold.

I will get in at the current level and out over 1,40$

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY YLO.TO (Yellow Media)

This is a fascinating story but on the wrong side...

This is the story of a 14$ stock (before converting to a regular company from an income fund) that was paying great dividend but crumble under debt and pressure in the printed media business.

Since a year, it has seen it's value decline by almost 99% but it was before one of the most profitable business in Canada.

I would also guess that not that long ago, everybody was under the impression that YLO would disappear BUT in the last quarter it generated a profit of 6 cents per share after a loss of over 2B$ in the previous quarter.

YLO will be releasing the Q1 results tomorrow and based upon the way stock trend actually, momentum is coming back on the 3 different stocks that you can buy:   

Regular stock YLO
preferred YLO.PR.A
preferred YLO.PR.B

The preferred shares can be exchanged, at company discretion, for regular shares.

Personnally i do not think that YLO is done. The transition to an electronic media company from the original printed media has been very difficult but i suspect it is on track to get it done right.

If that is the case, expect a super leg up from YLO effective tomorrow after their results release.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY BAC (Bank of America)

This is a very good time to get into this one as BAC is absolutely undervalued and i think we could see a great rally toward the 9,00$ very rapidly.

It is stitting actually right on the 8,00$ mark (tested with success many times)  but it is under it's 50 days moving average. I will get in now but will add a stop losses at 7,60 because if it breaks down below 7,60$, the next stop would be 7,00$.

Actually this is one of the rare bank valued at less than 50% of the book value and this is odd. Would i consider this one as too big too fail???

No, i would consider this one as too big NOT to succeed.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

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ALERT DRL

Finally DRL seems to have bottomed. Since beginning of this week, it has seen it's share price drop from 1,91 to a low 1,63$.

If my forecast is correct, it will be reporting a very good Q1 2012 and it could send back the share into the 2$ range for a very nice profit.

Naturally, any bad results will send back shares into the 1,35 to 1,50$ range. So caution is needed here but the reward potential is huge.

PLAY OF THE DAY GW.TO (Garda World Security)

Very interesting company with good revenues and undervalued with a P/E of only 11.

Not the fastest mover in the stock world actually but lots of potential to be developped especially in Europe. Their business is into security so whenever things are getting challenging for customers, this is where GW gets into the action.

I will get in at around 7,50$.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

get the PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter:  @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY KBH (Kb Homes)

Well as confirmed again this morning with Q1 release from Beazer Homes (BZH) sales in the home market are improving a lot. They are still contemplating future with some caution in regard of future growth but still...

KBH is a great example of undervalued company and if lucky enough it could dip to around 8,50$ this morning.

I will be in at 8,50$ and out near 9,25$

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY BPOP (Banco Popular)

Today will be very interesting  as i expect high volatility for this stock. BPOP has confirmed that it will be doing a reverse stock split 10 to 1 on the last day of May.

As usual the reverse stocks split normally do not work to the favor of the actual shareholders and i suspect that volume will be in the 15M range instead of their usual 8.5M average.

The rational behing the split is correct and value of the stock will correct itself within 30-60 days after the split takes effect but for the coming weeks, it will be very interesting to watch.

I will be in around 1,60 as this would mean largely undervalue for this stock that should be trading near 3$.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock. 

PLAY OF THE DAY DRL (Doral Financial)

Yes, i am back with DRL for a second time. Here is why:

Last time it did made a good jump from 1,79 to 1,87 and profit was good in only a couple of days BUT this time, DRL will be announcing their results on wednesday and this could be a really surprising quarter as it had an overpayment in income taxes that they will have to reverse into profit and at the same time it will increase greatly their capital ratios. I would not be surprised to see DRL jump as high as 2,35$ on wednesday or thursday.

So, this is a great occasion to buy on the dip either today or tomorrow and get ready for a great profit % in a few days. I will get in near 1,79 and hold on until near 2,35$. This should be a massive winner.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stocks.

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Is Ortsbo from INT really worth 210M$

THAT COMPANY SEEMS TO BE AN EMPTY SHELL AS OF NOW AND INVESTORS LOST THEIR SHIRTS ON THIS ONE" REMEMBER THE NAME OF THE BOARD MEMBERS FOR FUTURE REFERENCE"

The latest value that INT (Intertainment Media) assigned to Orstbo was 210M$ for a translator plug in that works perfectly even if at this time it is still having some minor glitchs when trying to translate local expressions in most languages.

(By the way, they are actually working on a wiki type of dictionary that will fix most of the problem.)

Actually on the last reading (end of 2011) Orstbo had acquired 107M users and the speed at which they are increasing that user number is absolutely incredible to the point that i would not be surprised to see another 25-30% increase at the end of March 2012. And i am not even mentionning mobile users numbers.

So when looking at value per user ( December 2011) at around 2$,  that is way too low based upon market value for other companies in the social media arena.

Sure the revenues per user are not that fantastic at this time but it is absolutely the right thing to do to have such a great number of users that advertising companies will be willing and begging to get in and pay a right price to advertise.

Imagine for a second that INT would have done the opposite: increase revenues per user and forget user number expansion. The result: each user would be targetted so many times a day that it would be annoying to them to the point that most users would only get rid of the application. Simply imagine a fantastic application on which 3/4 or the displayed page is reserved to advertising and 1/4 for the app. That would not make sense.

Think about Angry Bird: imagine that each time you shoot, an add would pop-up...

No, INT did the best thing for Ortsbo and don't see any reason why this coming company could not be valued more than 1B$ (yes 1,000,000,000$). They have the user base growing faster than Facebook, they have a fantastic app that translate instantly in 53 different languages and this is only the beginning.

As for the total value of INT, well at this time even if it was only for Orstbo, it's value is definitely a lot more than 50 cents. Do not forget all the other start up companies that they have invested in (too many to list them all here) and it is a no brainer that INT value is a lot more than Ortsbo.

Here is an excerpt from The Washington Post explaining one of the reason why Facebook paid 1B$ for Instagram. By reading it i am sure that it will pop up some ideas about other INT divisions and how they could easily be assembled together to form the next Instagram company to be bought out by either Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Nokia...the list of potential buyers is again too long to list themn all.

(From the Washington Post)

Facebook’s $1 billion acquisition of Instagram is a clear sign that Facebook, at least, is taking the rapid shift to mobile platforms seriously. While the social network has one of the most popular apps on the market, the company is still centered around the desktop experience and has admitted that it’s a little concerned about its mobile strategy.

In fact, it paid out twice as much as Instagram’s last estimated value to snap up the photo start-up — possibly because it’s a purely mobile application.

Guy Rosen, the chief executive of Onavo, which monitors mobile data, said the acquisition is “definitely a huge milestone for mobile.” There hasn’t been an acquisition this large of something purely mobile, he said, but the Facebook acquisition recognizes that “Instagram is on to something, on to what it means to be viral,” he said.

Apart from viral appeal, though, Instagram has the loyalty of a growing community of creative people that distinguishes it from other flash-in-the-pan fads such as Color, another photo-sharing app that launched to much fanfare and failed to gain traction, prompting a redesign only months later.

In its two years, however, Instagram has grown on the iOS platform and recently opened its community to Android users. The service now has 30 million users — up from 5 million in June — and the app is the sixth-most downloaded iOS application, according to Onavo’s numbers. That means it shows up on roughly one of every 10 iPhones.

“It’s the most popular social network apart from Facebook and Twitter [when it comes to apps], and the only mobile-only network,” Rosen said. “You can see how Facebook is really trying to address this gap by tapping into Instagram.”

Michael Scissons, president and chief executive of the social marketing firm Syncapse, said that Facebook is smart to look to Instagram and attempt to capture the creativity of its users in the same way.

“This is part of Facebook's. . . strategy toward making Web their own,” he said. “And it is based on users building their own content.”

Scissons said that he believes Instagram will become a core part of Facebook, which has said in the past that photos are a vital part of its social network. He also believes that the social network will do its best to keep the spirit of the photo service intact to keep its fans coming back and to keep Instagram’s talent happy.

“If you pay $1 billion for that team, there’s a strong probability that it will remain independent,” he said, drawing comparisons to Google’s acquisition of YouTube.

PLAY OF THE DAY RF (Regions Financial)

Very interesting bank. No exposure to Europe and getting stronger and stronger. Only dark cloud at this time is the fact they they will issue aabout 150M shares to repay TARP but because it has been approved, it is almost a sign that the US agency confirm that the bank is now solid as a rock.

So this is a perfect play on the next down dip. I will get in at around 6,49$ and exit at 6,98$ for a great 9% profit.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY LVS (Las Vegas Sands)

They had another great quarter and what is happening right now is profit taking. Look at the chart and you will see that they had a fantastic run.

This is a perfect one to buy on the dip and below 57$ it is a great one to have. Naturally i will wait a bit for market to stabilize at open and hope to get it even cheaper for its next run to 60$.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY UWN (Nevada Gold and Casino)

UWN has a new route for slot machines and revenues will only quick in this quarter. This is a stock that has a low daily transaction volume and normally i would not consider this one for that reason BUT with the recent events and the very low actual price, it makes it a good candidate for a solid return in only a matters of a few days.

I will get in at 1,40$ -1,45$ and exit after 1,60$ for a nice 10% + return. Now that stock has a lot of upside potential if you want to stick around a bit longer as i expect this one to be close to 2$ in the near future.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY F (Ford)

At current level this is a steal. With the credit upgrade from Finch Today (up to investment quality BB+) finally Ford is starting to be recognized for what they really are: a great car company that never took a dime from US government and was able to ride the 2007-2010 great recession by themselves. Ford did not dilute any investors and did not went to the bankruptcy procedure to get rid of their problems. They found their way out and now their balance sheet  is a great one. They are also building a new plant in China to increase production to 1,2M vehicles per year.

So i would get in at 11,60$ and out aroung 14,00$. This play may be a bit longer than usual but it is worth it.

As usual DO NOT INVEST more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in that stock or any stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY RSH (Radio Shack)

This is a very undervalued company and the recent drop was based upon only 1 bad quarter.

I will get in around 5,85$ and exit around 6,50$ for a nice profit. Today it seems that market will be really ugly. SO take the time and wait for the right price. With a bit of luck and nervous selling, price could end up lower than 5,85$.

As usual do not invest money you cannot afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY MPEL (Melcro Crown Entertainment)

In the casino business MPEL is an underdog. The shares are now trading at a near 52 weeks high but a lot of potential to grab. This one is a very volatile stock so get in at actual market today (near 15,33$) and get out before end of day for a nice profit as it should be trading around 15,75$.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

Get the play of the day on Twitter: @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY UUU (Uranium one)

Great potential for upside with an entry point at 3,02 - 3,04.

UUU is one of the great uranium producer an it's production is on the rise and their cost is lowering.

Great play.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

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THE PLAY OF THE DAY DRL (Doral Financial)

This will be very interesting as this little bank in Puerto Rico has the potential to give a great return in a very short period of time. IMO they will be reporting a profit increase on their next quarterly report but most important is the fact that they will also book a large credit that will have a good impact on tier 1 and other capital ratio.

I am a buyer under 1,63 and a seller over 1,79

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing.

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PLAY OF THE DAY BZH(Beazer Homes)

This is one of the underdogs in housing and with this morning releases about home builds and permits, i would not be surprised to see another small drop. New home starts were not that good in march so looking for Q1 to be a bit lower BUT new permits did show an increase that let me thinks that Q2 will be much much better.

So BZH between 2,75$ to 2,80$ is a good play with an exit point around 3,19$.

I will be monitoring this one very carefully and pull the trigger after market stabilizes.

As usual DO NOT invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or in any stock.

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PLAY OF THE DAY DAN (Dana Holding Corp)

This is a great play and can be kept a bit longer than usual.

Very undervalued as it should be trading nearing 16$. Good gains to be made there.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence.

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PLAY OF THE DAY FBP(First Bancorp Puerto Rico)

I will be getting in around 4,05$ and out at around 4,30$. Very solid bank and the one with the best equity per share.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

PS: Happy with WPX (Western Potash)...Wait until today results.

PLAY OF THE DAY NOKIA (NOK)

This is a very agressive play of the day and this should be executed very rapidly IN and OUT. This is a speculator play and only for really experimented users.

I will be in at 4,15 to 4,20 and out at around 4,50$ for a 7% return. I will put stops losses at 4$.

NEVER PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Always do your due diligence or consult your financial planner BEFORE making money commitments to any stocks

UPDATE NOKIA

Stock seems to have stabilized but still way too oversold. They are still a leader in the phone business and i think that their new LUMIA product will grab a lot of attention.

They have lowered their Q1 2012 expectations but i would not be surprised if they would have bottomed at 4,27 (in the expected range)

At this time it is a short time play but who knows, it could be a very profitable one.

ALERT NOKIA

This one seems to be badly oversold. Watch for 4,15$ to 4,25$

TVI The waiting game

First let me say that Rhonda leaving TVI is a very bad thing for TVI and will surely mean a greater challenge for Rhonda. I wish her all the best and she will be missed in here. I was told that Raina is a very capable one and does have a great experience log. I will definitely be in contact with her in the very near future.

As expected last year numbers for TVI were good. Not excellent but ok.

Profit was correct, revenues were ok, their bank account is very nice and only very minor debt at very low interest rate. So what else can we ask for???

WE NEED PROJECTS GOING!

Obviously, every major company in the Philippine is actually in a waiting game with the Philippine Government as it would be absolutely ridiculous to announce new mining projects without even knowing what would be the taxable rate.

But for now let’s look at 2011 results and expectations for 2012.

The first thing that comes off my mind is Canatuan mine life: it is really surprising that there is still 1.6 years remaining mine life bringing TVI now to almost 2013 before mine is depleted totally. The new ore mix that Yulo is using seems to be very profitable. My opinion is that they are still drilling near the actual Canatuan pit and that they have a lot more ore available than originally thought. That being the case, it would be very interesting to know by how much mine life could be expanded but I will not count on that as it is illegal to mention new resources without going first thought a new 43-101. This would be costly and not needed at this time unless major discovery were to be made. Just the fact that they have drilled more copper and zinc near the actual pit is more than enough for me at this time.

The second thing that I find interesting is the value of the mining claims: it jumped from 3.9M$ to 6.9M$. Hummm what happen? There is an addition of 4.6M$ in 2011 and under construction, there is a 5,8M$ under Construction in progress. To me these 2 amounts are referring to Balabag and that being the case, this project is probably a lot closer to an official start-up that we originally thought.

What about cash reserves: WOW 23,7M$ that is a HUGE difference from last year and definitely comes from Alaska transaction (that had a direct impact on the 12M$ net equity jump in 2011) and some profitable mining during the year.

For the math lover in you, TVI is now generating 0,035 per share in cash flow (yearly). That is very surprising for a company to have their shares trading at the same level…

It is also interesting to note also that TVI is now a profitable mining company. Last year it had a cumulated deficit and now it is retained earnings. This is a good difference.

So the net results is that in 2011 TVI made a profit of 0,005 (half a cent) compared to last year 0,022 net profit per share. We can immediately see why shares are trading at 0,035: it does represent a multiple of 7 THE SAME as last year (well almost the same albeit a bit lower last year as a multiple).

As a starting point for TVI share price valuation I think the real ACTUAL value actually should be in the vicinity or 0,15 to 0,21 cents per share if we only take into consideration Canatuan and NO other projects. To achieve that and based upon current valuation multiple TVI will need to increase profit to the range of 0,02 to 0,03 and this means between 12M$ and 18M$ dollars in profit in 2012. For Canatuan only this is feasible.

I would also highly recommend reading the 2011 final MD&A as it contains a lot of information in relationship with 2011 results and 2012 projects. Iit would be too long to copy and paste in here.

So what should we expect from now on based upon a fast decision from Philippine Government?

1)      We need an update on Philippine oil project. I know that TVI is not the operator and NIDO is the one that will decide if and when we get one. Based upon NIDO web site, there is not much to mention about it and their extension to evaluate real oil prospect in there is ending somewhere in August 2012. Should we count on a great surprise there?  I am not sure and will not count that oil project as something of the highest priority. But I would be interested to know if the value of this area was to be considered as 0.

2)      The Balabag project official start-up signal should be announced almost immediately after the government decision because I think that TVI had enough time to complete and process all drilling and made up their mind (and their plans…). The mountain definitely did not moved but I can understand some delays in the 43-101 because they may have to fine tune the drilling process to ensure maximum value in the defined resources. If they simply change the angle at which the mountain is drilled, I am pretty confident that they have to redo completely the overall picture. (NPV (net present value) must be done pretty accurately and cannot be changed after releasing the report or it would be considered misleading information) By itself this core project of 50,000 gold ounces will be enough to give a boost to TVI shares at least half way to where they were until production really starts up. (Total proven resources as of 2008 43-101 were close to 500K ounces and the 50K ounces was only to define the start-up bootstrap.)

3)      Canatuan expansion: I am almost convinced that Malasuk contain enough copper to increase mine life at Canatuan by another 5 years and drilling around actual pit at Canatuan could increase again that mine life. I think that if there was a 10 years mine life increase (as a total including near pit mining)) this would be the biggest factor to increase share price to a more respectable level.

4)      TVI will need a really good JV partnership with a well-established company to start up a great project with well above what we are used to as potential. A jv that will have nothing in common with Dacon that unfortunately has gone nowhere as of today. How about Philex, Xstrada etc…After all if the bans were to be lifted it would be mostly because of TVI as they would have succeeded where both of them failed and I am almost certain that some of their properties could be jointly exploited. (That could be a great thank you mark…)

5)      Continue exploring the Grater Canatuan Tenement Area trying to expand Canatuan mine life as it is within trucking distance.

6)      Tamarok: Drilling program should be continued in 2012 as this could be another major project for TVI. Any major discovery there could change instantly the value of TVI.

Overall, my view in regard of TVI is that it is in a Federal and provincial battlefield where the outcome cannot be certain even if my opinion is that TVI is in its right. All those legal conflicts have eroded the share price and investor confidence. Until these are put to bed, it will be very difficult for the share price to gain any traction whatsoever.

On the other hand, I would be very surprised if TVI was only sitting there and awaiting results before getting some advancement ongoing. I am pretty convicted that TVI people are more advanced than we know and that they will release that information in due time. As of today, I would not consider that as withheld material information for the simple reason that nobody knows when or at which conditions TVI will be able to go ahead with any of those projects.

At this time we can only wish for the best outcome and it could also be a good time to lower your cost on TVI’s share if your stomach is tough enough to support a 50-50 chance of a positive outcome.

Time will tell but for now I will keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best.

François

PLAY OF THE DAY WPX

Western Potash between 0,91 and 0,93 is a great play. It is highly volatile but you can expect 1,05 to 1,10 exit price to come rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY INT

Play of hte day is INT (Intertainment Media) on TSX venture. Nice company with a great product ORTSBO.

At current level it is a good deal as ORTSBO spin off details are expected very soon and shareholders on date of record will be entitled to received 33% of the spin off and that amounts to close to 70M$.

With around 350M shares outstanding that will mean a special dividend of about 0,20 per share (will be paid in the form of shares of ORTSBO) and this will increase the ask most probably up to 1,00$ rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY ALZM

ALZM (Allezoe Medical OTCBB)

Highly volatile and for speculators ONLY. I normally get in at around 0,0105 and out 0,0175

Not the right place to invest a lot but a funny stock to watch. Has been profitable many times.

PLAY OF THE DAY AC.B

Play of the day is Air Canada (AC.B) at 0,88

Good results last month and still in the right direction. Too much fear explaining huge drop in price.

Still holding to BZH of yesterday bought at 2,99$

This is the last one one the week.

PLAY OF THE DAY

Today's play is BZH (Beazer Home USA).

Entry point at 2,99$ or less and exit at 3,25$ or more but could happen tomorrow only.

This play is in regard of home construction and is moderately volatile.

Don't forget to do your own DD and NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to lose.

Also available on twitter undere @investman2

NEW Play of the day

Everyday (business day) 1 stock will be named the stock of the day. These stocks are undervalued and represents a great trade opportunity for the day and the day after. These are very short term trades and are not for nervous investors.

For today: PLAY OF THE DAY IS:  FBP (First Bancorp or Puerto Rico). Very undervalued regional bank and moderate to high volatility. I buy around 4,16$ and sell before 4,75$ as USA govt still has about 90M shares to unload due to TARP.

It will also be available on twitter under @investman2

As usual NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to loose in these play of the day are not mean as a guide to invest. Always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

ALERT DRL

Nice ride this morning for DRL. Watch up for the 1,70$ level.

Never a bad idea to take in some profit off the table !!!

ALERT INT

Watch for 0,70 as it seems to be a major resistance (between 0,68 and 0,70)

The next time INT closes above 0,70 get rady for a major leg up.

Remember that INT will be revealing the date of record for the Ortsbo Spin off most probably at the AGM.

UPDATE INT

The way INT is doing the spin off is very interesting and definitely huge cost savings.

For the exact figures on how many shares of Ortsbo for shares of INT and other metrics, we will have to wait for the proxy to get the exact figure and the date of record.

But what i am the most surprised is the fact that INT did not crossed over the 1$ mark with a user count of 100M. Many will argue that Google Analytic is not the best to give exact figures what personnally i use it and it is really giving interesting stats. By using Google you know where your users come from (country) and from which site. That is a highly important thing to consider especially in marketing.

So the most important thing is to use always the same metrics reporting program. By doing that, we know for this example that there is a 167% increase since the last publication of stats. If true value was 0,54 (end of november value) then you must agree that value is now 0,54 * 167% = 1,54$.
That being the case we now have a great buying opportunity with a really low downside (risk reward).

One thing is sure: the coming weeks will be also very exciting.

UPDATE DRL BPOP DAN

After the first (almost) 60 dyas of the year here is an update about the above stocks:

DRL: good results in Q4 2011 should be the same for Q1 2012. Has been confirmed a CCC credit rating by Finch with a favorable outlook. This will help. Still 3,4M shares are shorted so the next results if good could result in a short squeeze. I expect a 3,75$ share price end of 2012.

BPOP: Results ok in Q4 2011 but i expect a very good Q1 2012. BPOP is the leading bank in Puerto Rico and results should improve during 2012. 15M shares have been shorted and could be a game changer if results for Q1 2012 are surprising. Recently options calls have been on the rise and could mean the start of a new leg up for BPOP. I expect a 5,75$ share price end of 2012

DAN: Still the leader in my picks for the past 3 years. From 1,27$ to 16$ it is a 1200% increase. NOT BAD AT ALL !. I still expect some improvement in the car business and the fact that DAN has most car manufacturers as customers, it is avoiding any huge sale decrease due to Europe. I expect a 24$ share price by end of 2012.

UPDATE INT

Pure speculation here but if it is still halted tomorrow, it could mean that they were awaiting the final setlement date for all of thursday transaction. Surprisingly, the OTC is still allowing trades. (if you want to trade today, you can do it. Just call your broker and ask them to do the transaction on the other platform being otc. They may say no at first, but if they have the proper platform bridge they will assist you in selling or buying on the otc under the ITMTF ticker symbol as it is the same company)
It also could mean a record date of February 23rd (would be surprising) or moving to TSX as of march 1st.
In any case, the news are to be highly important as INT requested the halt, they had to get an extension approved by the exchange and IMHO it has absolutely nothing to do with Synchronica news this morning or Myriad news of last week. This MUST be highly significant and material to the company to get that kind of exception.
My guess: new partner on board that will generate great revenues for ORTSBO and this BEFORE the spin off creating a higher value for ORTSBO and INT.
Based upon social media valuation company value is based upon revenues and number of users. 100M users without any revenues is less interesting than 50M users with 25M$ in revenues ( roughly 0,50 cents per user per year) and again based upon actual valuation it could mean that INT (including Ortsbo) would be easily valued at 1,25B$ or 4$ per share.
Again PURE SPECULATION here but we never know what even a small kick at annual revenues could generate for INT.

UPDATE INT

Intertainment Media Inc : Could this be the birth of a new star?

Since a year now,(and more recently)  INT has become one of the most interesting stocks to watch on the market and there are so many things happening right now with INT that I think it is the right time to focus on what is really Intertainment Media Inc and really what are you exactly buying when you invest in INT.

If you are a penny flipper, you can stop reading now as you may not be interested in this investment opportunity but if you read, you may probably think about it twice before reselling for a penny or two!

INT is describing itself on their web site as:  ‘’We help brands engage by developing, nurturing, and investing in technologies’’ and based upon that statement it would be a mistake to only see INT as being Orstbo even if their recent great run-up from 0,46 to 0,83 in a matter of days sounds exciting.

But that may not be the end of this run up when you carefully look at what is INT and what it may have in store for us investors:

1)      First and fore most Orstbo that should be spun off in the coming months. This translator in more than 50 languages is a beauty to see in action. INT have produced many exciting opportunities over the last 3-6 months to display the incredible value of Ortsbo and more are coming. If you had the chance to assist live to one of these events in your OWN native language, it was phenomenal and almost error free. Sure there will still be some hiccup, as translation is never perfect even when done by human beings. Look at some import products from Asia and if you read (and try to understand) the French translation you could be in for major surprises.

In my opinion, the internal value of Orstbo has now grown over the total value of INT explaining the need to spin it out. The Orstbo value will also be determined by its ability to generate money but we should not forget that its principal value is in text translation and this could be added to so many different products and social media that it would take forever simply to list them all. But some of them are Facebook, Twitter, strategic relationship with Variety in streaming live events and many more.

Orstbo was at one point the 3^rd most popular downloaded application  at Apple Itune Store and is available to PC and Mac computers, mobile devices as well as all major search engine instant messaging chat platforms Microsoft, Google and Yahoo! along with Facebook, iChat, AIM, ICQ, Gadu-Gadu, Ovi, Lotus Sametime, LiveJournal and Tencent QQ and QQ International, China’s largest chat platforms and Twitter. (more info available at Ortsbo.com)

Orstbo had 20M users in October 2011 and 40M users in November 2011. Shall we extrapolate for December and January? Are 100M users possible? Even if I think it is a bit high and it is most probably around 75M users, it would still be a great achievement. Think about that: it is a lot of new users in a very short period of time and I would guess that total minutes spent is also on exponential rise. In my opinion, the country that will have the largest user base will be Asia and most especially China. Could you imagine being able to chat with someone in China using your own native language? That is truly incredible.

So, in my opinion, Orstbo development is done. Ortsbo is now ready to go on its own with its own management team and employees supervised by INT. At what price: I would think about 375M$ if user base is now 75M users and 500M$ is user base is over 100M$ (average price of 5$ per user). For comparison only, Facebook have 800M users and is valued at 60B$ to 100B$ for a value around 100$ per user. We also have to take into account that almost 37% of all ads in this internet world are going throughout Facebook and Orstbo is far far behind (at this time). That progression in user base is faster even than Facebook but we cannot compare Facebook with Orstbo as they serve 2 different purposes. One thing is sure, a first class translator plug in could easily work hand in hand with all our actual and future social media applications.

So. can we use same metrics than Facebook: I do not think so unless Ortsbo start significantly produce $ per user minutes or $ per user that would be comparable. BUT if Orstbo was to generate only 0,10 per user per month that would lead to a 10M$ monthly revenues or 125M$ per year. That is very very impressive and this would lead to a 1B$ value based only on those revenues.

2)   Ad Taffy:  Here are some examples of Ad Taffy Technoligies (from Ad Taffy web site):Ad Taffy is a location-aware display ad product featuring IP-based geo-location and click-to-call functionality. The units come in two formats. One is a click-to-locate rich media ad unit that generates a pop-up map where users can browse through the nearest brand locations to them (found using an IP geo-locator). The second is a static display ad with click-to-call functionality, activated when the user punches their phone number into the ad’s information field. When the user inputs their mobile or landline number, it connects their phone to the service provider’s landline, immediately establishing a connection. The format has obvious use for local service providers, but it is currently being used in the political arena by Brian Storseth, the incumbent for Westlock-St.Paul, who recently implemented a “Click To Call Me” display ad to connect his constituents with volunteers and a mapping function to call up nearby polling stations. The strategy provides an extra level of connectivity between him and constituents, Storseth said in a release.The Ad Taffy technology is ideal for someone like Storseth because it localizes and simplifies traditional web search, Brad Parry, CMO, Intertainment Media tells MiC. “If you were trying to find a local dealer from a traditional web ad, it would take you anywhere from 8 to 12 clicks to find that local dealer,” says Parry. “What our technology does is it finds your IP address automatically, pulls up a map that showcases where you are and all the retail service provider locations around you in just one click.”

So the value of Ad Taffy is solely based upon the number of company that will pay to use the advertising module. At this time definitely hard to evaluate as it is still in test mode until mid-2012. The demo on Ad Taffy site is impressive and if final results are like the one show, it will be a success.

3)      Itibiti / Knctr: This could be the next leader for INT. Imagine a platform where all your social media is interconnected. Very interesting and still with a growing number of customers and users. We have not seen new data relating to users and minutes spent  recently but I assume they are still working hard to increase the perceived value of the product. Growth of Knctr will not be compared to Ortsbo but I think it could be well received by users all around the globe. The interface is nice and you can even call in North America without charges. Real value of Knctr will also depend of the number of advertisers.

4)      Investment in Shiny Ads: The latest investment form INT. Shiny adds is directed toward the smaller advertisers and I think it could be easily attached to Orstbo. Could be very interesting on the long term.

5)      Investment in Active ImageNation (Cap That) still on a waiting list for the beta test.

6)      Lexifone communication systems: How about talking in your native language and being translated into the same number of countries than Ortsbo?  Dream?  Most probably not and even if the product is not totally perfect at this time, when that product become almost error free, well Ortsbo would then be a totally different software and attract a lot more customers.

7)      Investment in China Green Channel:  This statement by itself explain the value of this investment (from last quarter MD&A): ‘’The Company and CGCI will work together to bring Ortsbo and other Intertainment software applications to the Chinese market, utilizing CGCI’s media relationships in China’’

I hope you see the value in here as even if accounting value is hard to define, the long term effect on Ortsbo and other INT products is a major advantage. Where is the most populated area in the world : China. Who needs the most a translator plug in: China. Need I say more ??

8)      SaaS Technologies inc: Interesting and again could be linked to other INT divisions. Here is a description of SaAS: SaaS Technologies Inc. develops data exchange manager tools. It also offers data exchange manager custom modification, custom database design, and custom data transfer services. The company’s tool enables transfer data from any data source to another, as well as users to use its custom designed templates to increase speed for database platforms. It offers its tools as software as a service applications. The company accepts online orders.

9)      Deal Frenzy: Simply enter your email address and where you live and every morning you get the deal of the day email. It may not be the deal you were looking for, but it is a beginning. It will take some time to attract new advertisers and customers and again value is difficult to evaluate.

10)   Commobility: Another very interesting division. Commobility Inc. develops mobile software and key applications in real time semantic search, location based mobile video search and real-time communication platforms, and large scale mobile messaging and service delivery platforms. This division again could be integrated to Ortsbo and Knctr easily.

There are so many projects actually on INT plate that it is easy to lose track of all investments that INT are making right now. That company want to become the leader in ‘incubating’ new technologies and they are on track to achieve that at a really high pace.

It is easy to understand that with all those projects, Ortsbo NEED to be spun off to allow that great program to grow even faster.

So what is the real value of INT?

Ortsbo: If it has already achieved 100M users then estimate the value in the range of 500M$. Remember that the more it will be used, the greater will be the user number. That valuation does not take into account any add-ons or plug in that could be easily attached to Ortsbo but my impression is that Ortsbo will be combined with some other INT division to generate a lot more revenue per user per month and this could come by adding Adtaffy + Deal Frenzy and commobility to offer a highly personalize ad’s generation system. Imagine getting your own personalized ad’s that could differ depending where you are located.

Net equity in INT is around 28M$. Cash flow burning rate of 3,4M$ per quarter and 21M$ on hand so no liquidity problem.

There is still around 55M warrants and options that could dilute INT share furthermore if all investments are confirmed.

One of the worry could be the value of INT after the spinoff of Ortsbo but INT has confirmed that they will retain a significant portion of the new company and will pay a dividend of up to 30% to shareholders at the record date that will be set at the same time that the announcement. That dividend will be paid in shares of new company and will most probably make the difference in the share value of INT once deal is completed. With actual market in regard of social media, I would not be surprised to see shares of the new company rise rapidly and at the same time, shares of INT should continue to rise as they will be able to present the real net value of Ortsbo as an investment.

My best guestimate for INT value would be between 500M$ and 550M$ if Ortsbo users are over 100M and between 400M$ and 450M$ if between 75M and 100M users.

As usual you should never invest more than you can afford to lose and there is never anything wrong to take some profit off the table when occasion present itself. I still believe that INT will be very interesting to watch for the coming weeks as they definitely have major winners in their portfolio. If Mr Lucatch and his team are able to do for one other division what they have already done for Ortsbo, well this could very well be the birth of a great star.

François

ALERT INT

INT has been halted for one of the rare time in it's history and it is certainly not only to update the user numbers.....

What we may find out will be the details and the date of record for the coming ORTSBO IPO.

Remember that it has been mentionned that it will have to be approved by shareholders before getting into effect so i presume that the next agm will definitely contain in it's proxy all the details to approve or reject hte IPO and the conditions.

INT is already the major talk of town in bulletin boards and this only after about 1 hours of the stock being halted.

Guess what: INT will be the number 1 company talked about this week-end. Many will dream about $$$ but nobody will know for sure until we get ALL the details.

This company actually is worth between 450-500M$ based upon an IPO of 210M$ for Ortsbo. Do the math: if ORTSBO get an initial offering higer, then INT will be worth some more.

François

UPDATE Market

What a strange morning today. Looks like Greece is hurting north american markets a bit but the real question is: How would Greece affect your portfolio?

Banks: If they have no exposure to Greece then it is pannic selling

Automobile sector: Yes if recession worsen in Europe, then it will be affected

For many specific stocks like INT the change in their fundamentals does not come from Greece...So you pannic, you sell then you may be ending up loosing UNLESS it was to remove some gain from the table.

Get ready anyways for a very interesting monday.

ALERT INT

Another transaction for INT today where INT will now have a partnership with Syncronica. That means that Orstbo could be preloaded on many mobile devices. Syncronica has over 100 device manufacturer and mobile operator.

With this partnership, INT could be hitting the major leagues from now on and that by itself could dramatically change the value of Ortsbo IPO.

On the other hand, shares suffered a bit today but INT is still on an explosive pattern. Would that last deal not being liked by the markets, volume would have been a lot higher today with a drop much heavier than a mere 2 cents. That does not mean that tomorrow may not be another down day but i would think that INT is very stable and still within the right parameters for growth.

INT has been very silent since last announcement about raising the dividend up to 30% of Ortsbo pre-money and i suspect that they are actually in a forced silence.

Anytime you are to issue an IPO you have a certain black out period where you cannot issue public comments that could be seen as promotion for the company or it's product.

(from Wikipedia)

There are two time windows commonly referred to as "quiet periods" during an IPO's history. The first and the one linked above is the period of time following the filing of the company's S-1 but before SEC staff declare the registration statement effective. During this time, issuers, company insiders, analysts, and other parties are legally restricted in their ability to discuss or promote the upcoming IPO (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2005).

So this could explain the reason why it is excessively quiet about Ortsbo users number and mobile user numbers. If this is the case, expect a number of great NR following SEC approval for listing.

At this moment it is difficult to know when INT will file for an IPO but it had already announced their intentions and some of the parameters. As of Feb 3rd, INT has not officially filed for an IPO and you can track it at this adress:

http://www.hoovers.com/ipo-central/ipo-filings/100004162-1.html

The last user number update was on november 1st 2011 and we are now at about the 90 days mark.

There is 2 possibilities about this: either numbers have not continued to climb as rapidly, they have been forced into quiet mode since that date or they are in negociation to be acquired.

It looks like the first option is almost impossible with all the exposure INT got since that time so i would likely tend to believe that it is option #2 or option #3.

That being the case, 90 days would expire about in 5-10 days if we take into account holiday period. So i am now expecting full disclosure of users, profitability and all other important data in the coming days.

Also interesting to note that an insider sold about 60,000 shares 2 days ago but guess what: when you look at the exact options number that were excercised, you will find that 300,000 were bought and if you make the calculation, you will find that the quantity sold was covering the total amount needed to pay for his options and income tax related to his gains. So to me it is indicating something is coming in the most favorable way.

In all of those scenarios possible, remember that an IPO is coming for an unknow value but no less than 210M$ and a dividend up to 30% meaning up to 63M$ being close to 0,50 cents per share leaving a risk to reward ratio very very low. The downside for INT is around 0,25 and the upside is only limited by it's IPO and the details of the offer that will come rapidly.

I am not nervous about the last couple of days where INT has lost a bit of steam and some pennies and i would be more nervous about thinking to get into INT on the next 0,60 or less price tag.

As always never invest more than you can afford to lose and nobody ever went bankrupt by taking a profit.

Also note that i should be posting an update about INT very soon whenever i get clarification on some of the items that i will be reporting in that update.

ALERT INT

Since 2 days, volume and price has increased incredibly for INT.

The stock has achieve today 0,84 and incredible run from the 0,46 of 3 weeks ago.

Now, is this the storm or only the beginning of the great leg up leading up to the IPO announce?

Well, i think INT is getting back to where it belongs nad it is definitely not under 1$.

Today we have seen so far a lot of trades coming from day traders and penny flippers and that is ok. Let see if it will close at the high of the day or if it will retrace to 0,76 to 0,78.

If it was to close at 0,83 to 0,85 range it could very well mean that monday will be the real storm with volume well over 10M shares.

ALERT UWN

UWN has been approved for a gaming license in Nevada.

This is the 2nd license given to UWN this week and this will surely lead to new acquisitions or contracts and at the same time enhance company value.

ALERT INT

Another strategic alliance for INT where more and more potential customers will be in touch with Ortsbo.

By the way, have you look recently at ranking for Ortsbo in the world:

WOW !

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ortsbo.com

ALERT TVI

TVI has just released that they have applied for an MPSA in the area of Malusok and SE Malusok.

By getting the permit, TVI will be able to explore the area situated very close to actual Canatuan mining property.

Without a doubt, this could be a significant news to expand mine life at Canatuan.

It will also be very interesting to look at Q4 results as to wheter TVI  continued to add ore from outside the original resources area mentionned in the 43-101 as they had in Q3. Remember than in Q3, only 1/3 of ore processed was coming from proven ressources and by doing so, mine life was extended.

More to come  

UPDATE BPOP

BPOP has reported today their latest quarter results and even if net profit was a bit low, the trend is indicating that lending is on the rise and that loan quality is going higher also.

Very good indicators for the near future

Remember also that is not always a good thing to chase after a share on the rise (momentum trading). Sometimes it is worthty but most of the time you end up losing.

Be careful and i would wait for a down tip to buy some more. Future does look very very good for BPOP

UPDATE INT

We have seen today good price movement establishing a new base (unless something major happen) and this base is fixed at about 0,60.

Is that price correct? Well if we take into consideration that INT is actually worth 32M$ and that Ortsbo should bring in around 140M$ INT is today trading at book value.

There is still place for a good upward movement but i suspect we will need another good NR to move north of 0,75 as resistance seems to be really high.

Let's see tomorrow how it unfold.

UPDATE INT

We have seen today some churn in INT shares right after it hit 0,65$. I would tend to say that it was a regular situation where we do not have yet all the details and that on friday many were able to buy at 0,455 giving them close to 50% profit in only 1 day (or even less).

For most traders, it is normal and correct to take some off the table when situation arise where you made so much profit in so less time.

The value of INT does not make any doubt at this point and we could expect a release of all details pretty soon and at the actual price it would be very surprising that a downtrend will follow the next release.

Will the share rise tomorrow??? Good question and it will depend upon the number of buyers compare to the number of sellers.

Will it be exciting: yes it will be again but if you took your profit today, enjoy the ride ! 

UPDATE INT

Is INT (CVE) recent share price movement sustainable?

This is a very interesting question. INT has been on my top pick list for 2012 for some time now (November 2011)as they seem to have created a very interesting product called Ortsbo capable of translating instantly in 53 different languages.

That by itself is very interesting and even if the quality of this product is not 100% on the translation side, I must agree it is very good and well designed.

I was watching their latest presentation in all those languages simultaneously and it was really good. Even the plug in for Outlook is doing good.  

But IS there a demand for this kind of product?

Based upon the incredible high number of unique users (that is on a rapid rise every month) it would suggest that indeed there is a great demand for it.

Now, the challenge that Intertainment Media is facing is how to make great revenues from this unique product AND that takes time.

Last Friday (January 20^th 2012) the sudden share price rise was in fact driven by an update from INT stating that the spinoff of Ortsbo was imminent and that actual shareholders would get a 30% of pre-money that Ortsbo would attract and paid a share dividend from the new company created.  That was enough to see an increase of 29% in about 3 hours.

Last year at the end of march 2011, it took about 2 weeks to see share price climb from a bit over 40 cents to a whopping 3,35$.

Unfortunately many investors lost their shirt as the share price went down to 0,28 cents  early October 2011.

Are we at the beginning of a new leg up where this time INT will climb to a 4 or 5$ share? Think about that: if INT would climb to 5$, it would mean that INT is valued at roughly 1,4 billion $. Is that reasonable? We must not forget also that they have roughly 47M warrants and 15M options for a possible total of 327M shares issued if all warrants and options are exercised and would now place INT value at 1,6B dollars. Based on the fact that actually the social media hype allows a multiple of close to 100 times the revenue estimated for evaluation purpose, INT will have to generate 16M$ in yearly revenues if we want to take for granted that 1,6B$ is a possibility. IS THIS POSSIBLE?

Last quarter they generated 1,3M$ in gross revenues and it is only the beginning.  

They have 21M$ in cash on hand and are burning a little over 3M$ per quarter. So they should be ok for the next year and could even add up some more buyout of interesting technology.

They actually control many divisions and the most interesting one is what they call ‘The new Media’ division mainly consisting of:  Ortsbo, Ad Taffy, Deal Frenzy, itiBiti and Commobility.

There is a lot of very good info in the MD&A posted on Sedar end of December that I will not replicate here but here is the address:

http://sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=FR&docClass=7&issuerNo=00015693&fileName=/csfsprod/data125/filings/01844214/00000001/i%3A%5CSedar%5CIntertainmentMediaInc%5C2011Financials%5C122311MDA.pdf

Over all, I think that INT has a great future especially if they retain a good chunk of Orstbo. With all those acquisitions they made recently it would not be impossible to see major advertisers come on board. As an example, how much money would a company like Mcdonalds invest in a pop-up add that would appear on every user of Ortsbo offering a free coffee? At the same time users could get the direction to the next McDo restaurant in their OWN LANGUAGE, anywhere in the world at the same time?

The possibilities are endless and only limited by management imagination.

Can they achieve 16M yearly in revenues?  Yes they can

Can they achieve it this year? No I do not think so

Do they have the right management? Yes they seem to be really dedicated to INT success.

Do they have the right customer base? Yes and increasing by the minute

Do they have enough money to continue expansion and creativity? Yes they do

Do they have competitors? Yes they have but none as integrated as they are

Is this the right timing for a spin off? Yes as long as they keep control over Ortsbo

What is the value of INT shares: If revenues stays on the same track as they are, they could end up this year with revenues of  (for the 2012 quarters )  1,5M$, 1,8M$, 2,2M$ and finally 2,7M$ for a 8,2M in 2012 revenues. Based on that figure and a 100 time revenues INT could be valued at around 820M$ at the end of 2012 for a 2,51$ per share price when fully diluted.

This value is based only on what has been disclosed as of December 2011 and does not take into account the intellectual value of INT, trademarks etc.

 Is INT at 0,60 cents a good investment? WOW sure it is. If you like a bit the roller coaster associated with speculation combined with some great value you are in for a heck of a ride and for the dreamer in you, what would happen if Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Facebook and those really involved in this social media market were deciding to acquire INT. It could be the biggest share price war since a very long time with results only dreamers have in the back of their mind. But even if it was to break 2,50$ it would still be over a 400% gain.

How about that!!!

Disclosure: I am long on INT. As usual never invest more money than you can afford to lose and always discuss with your financial advisor before investing to be certain the investment is suitable for you.

ALERT INT

After reviewing today's release, it seems more than likely that Ortsbo is almost ready to be spinned off INT with a dividend now sitting at 30% of money received for it and paid in shares of the new company.

What does that mean? We could see a major price hike on monday followed by a large profit taken either end of day monday or early tuesday.

You judge by yourself and there is never anything bad to pocket some profit made. The best is always to get free shares and let the rest goes 'on the house'

In any case, be careful and get ready for an exicting beginning of the week. If you are not yet in INT, i would wait to see how market goes early next week. It is most of the time a bad idea to chase a share only based on momentum.

ALERT DRL

Have you seen Q4 results for DRL ???

Fantastic compared to Q3 and last year. Finally some great profit.

Expect a great leg up from tomorrow for a 4-5 days.

Alert UUU

Very good increase in sales and production reported today. Expect start of a nice leg up

ALERT CTL

With their new refinancement plan and due to the fact that dilution will be so enourmous, CTL is no longer a speculative move.

On the other hand, if shares drop to the 0,005 tomorrow and you still believe that on the longer term that move will be positive, it could be a good time to pick up some (100,000 shares will cost 500$ at 0,005) and if shares goes higher, it could be the time to take some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI has won an injunction against the open pit mining ban.

See the complete release here.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tvi-pacific-inc-wins-injunction-against-ordinance-that-would-ban-new-open-pit-mining-2012-01-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Hope you did bought some more at 0,035 or 0,04 as it could very well be the beginning of a good leg up for TVI. Remember that Balabag is also coming soon.