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mardi 5 septembre 2017

So far today

As expected, North Korea moves have rattled the stock market and at the same time, has made GOLD more interesting as a safe heaven.

This should continue for a while so the best way to work with that is to use stop orders in case of a sudden drop.

Oil (especially MEG on the tsx) is doing great again.

As for Yamana Gold and Meg they are  both at resistance level and ready to pup by another 5-10%

My little friend (RAD) Rite Aid continues its sideway trading and again no great volume so expect it to do same old again......gain a couple, lose a couple.
  

Encanto Potash ready to bounce back ?

Just bought some more EPO (on tsx-V) this morning.

I think it is really close to rebound from it's low toward 15 cents.

Only need 1 real good new.

This week is about to begin

Wondering where this week will lead ?????

Here are some trader ideas for the following sectors:

OIL: Expect a nice jump this week because of Harvey and the coming Irma. This will be very disruptive in nature and the winners will be the one that are not affected and especially in Canada. This should lead to a great price increase for Suncor and Meg Energy (SUN and MEG tsx Canada). These 2 companies are well positioned to gain from those major storms and especially MEG that has one of the lower cost per barrel.

GOLD:  Did i say North Korea ? Whatever the move they does this week it will definitely continue to rattle the world and let GOLD make some good gains. I like the Canadian companies like GoldCorp and Yamana gold. Yamana (YRI tsx or AUY) have the most to gain as they are the most volatile.

Amazon (AMZN) is still climbing toward its 1000$ mark. They are THE most retail disruptive company and acquisitions are not over. I expect something in the pharmacy business in the months to come. So i will stay away from retail stocks except Best Buy (BBY)

Construction sector is still looking for a direction and i expect HOV to go down again.

It is a wait and see week and naturally i will keep you informed.

lundi 4 septembre 2017

ALERT TRADER GOLD

From Cnn.com


I know it is a long week end but i had to mention that GOLD seems to make a great upward movement most probably due to the latest move from North Korea.

Even if i still believe in take some off the table because off upward movement, this is a serious issue happening right now and combined with the fact that the FED may not rise interest again this year, GOLD could be seen moving upward of 1400$ very rapidly if patience is one of your principal quality.......

Same could be true for OIL as it could be disrupt if military options were to be exercised or prepared.

So get ready for a very very interesting week.


vendredi 1 septembre 2017

Long week end coming

Ahead of this very long week end there was lost of profit taking this morning as expected.

Until close of the day, volume should be light but expect some good rebound on gold and oil.

If gold stays over 1325$, this could signal a move up toward the 1350$ mark.

TRADER ALERT Encanto Potash (EPO)

Bids are abnormal today.

Interesting but be careful about a trader trap.

This company is now ready for a turn around.


Friday's update

Overall a great week on many fronts:

For the oil market, Harvey's disrupt totally the USA market and it is now starting to reflect on Canadian companies like Suncor and Meg Energy. Out of those 2, MEG is the one with the lowest cost per barrel so it is the one getting the larger impact. MEG (tsx) now sits at 5$ and would the Texas situation continue for a while, i expect MEG to reach above 6$ after hitting some resistance at the 5,10$ and 5,60$ mark. As usual, getting some profit off the table is always a great idea.

Gold is also starting to reflect the higher tension especially since North Korea fired a missile over Japan. This was a totally insane move and if North Korea was to launch toward Guam base, expect an incredible run for gold. This would reflect on all gold producing companies as this problem could become a longer term annoyance. I like Yamana Gold and Goldcorp as they were hit the worst recently and rebound in gold will profit them more.

Construction is also on the rise but i do not expect HOV to get all attention. I would prefer at this time KBH for their stability over the years.

The FANG stocks: Amazon will test again the 1000$ mark (within a couple of days) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will continue to churn around 950$.

Ford (F) has surprised me but i am still skeptical at this time.

Rite Aid (RAD) seems to have started its come back with nice gains this week and i expect the rally to continue next week.

Wishing a nice week end to all my 30k readers....

jeudi 31 août 2017

RAD Is the rally started ?

In the last couple of days (actually since Monday) shares of RAD came of the 2,26$ low to 2,38$ this morning (pre market).

It may not seem much but 12 cents gain on a 2,25$ stock is still a good 6% in a matter of days.

Now the funny part is the fact that shorts have increased during that time and it does indicate that even if 6% gain was recorded this week so far, many do not believe RAD is on it's way up.

Even the smallest bit of positive news could set RAD on fire creating at the same time kind of a short squeeze and could have this stock goes nut very rapidly as more than 150M shares are shorted and with actual day to day volume, that would be more than interesting to watch it goes up.

Now the negative side is that maybe the one who are shorting that stock are right and again the deal would be rejected plummeting RAD to 1,50$ range.

As usual, risk / reward must be high in the case of a trade deal and in regard of RAD the risk ration is definitely high as the reward could also be.

Time to balance decisions against risk but so far i would think what's coming is positive for one main reason: IF negative was in the cards, RAD and WBA would have the obligation to disclose it as it would be considered 'MATERIAL'.

I also think that we are a lot closer than we think toward getting that deal accepted, getting RAD a major debt paid off and welcoming the new Rite Aid company that would be a lot leaner and profitable.

If that deal was not to be closed, i would suggest a complete management change !!! 

mardi 29 août 2017

ALERT TRADER RAD

Abnormal volume for RAD. Something is up. get ready

ALERT TRADER RAD

Interesting trading on RAD this morning as bids are impressive and getting higher.

Not sure at this time of the outcome but will keep an eye

ALERT TRADER AUY (YRI tsx)

Expect high resistance at 3$ for AUY. If it goes over 3,06$, then next stop is 3,43$

ALERT GOLD

To be watched carefully: ALL gold producing companies (Yamana, Goldcorp etc)

Recent events in North Korea suggest that this could last longer than originally thought.

Naturally do not forget to take some profit off the table but, this up trend could be here for some time until North Korea problem gets fixed once for all.

lundi 28 août 2017

ALERT TRADER GOLD

With today's North Korea stupid move, expect some traction on the gold market tomorrow.

Already up in after hour trading I would not be surprised to see Yamana Gold (and others) climb early tomorrow morning.

So get ready for some large fluctuation.

If moves are that large do not forget to take some profit off the table as I do not think North Korea will play a role for that long.

TRADER ALERT YRI (AUY ) Yamana Gold

New board member for Yamana Gold. Shares are climbing rapidly. 4% gain and continuing

Robert Gallagher has worked in the mining industry for over 40 years. He spent 15 years with Placer Dome Inc., and from August 2000 to December 2007 was with Newmont Mining Corporation, most recently as Vice President, Operations, Asia Pacific. Before the June 2008 business combination of Peak Gold Ltd., Metallica Resources Inc. and New Gold, Mr. Gallagher was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Peak Gold Ltd. from February 2008. In addition, Mr. Gallagher presently serves on the boards of Dynasty Gold Corp. and Southern Arc Minerals. Mr. Gallagher holds a Bachelor of Applied Science, Mineral Engineering from the University of British Columbia. Mr. Gallagher's principal occupation is President and Chief Executive Officer of New Gold.

(from ''Find The Company'' internet site)

ALERT TRADER HOV

HOV has just touched 1,79$ and this could mean a great entry point (a bit shy of my prefer 1,75$)

If it stays at 1,80-183$, it maybe time to get back in.

ALL CONSTRUCTION sector is getting slammed today.

An interesting week is about to begin

This is another week that major disruptor could be kept in check.

North Korea has calmed down, so did Mr. Trump. This will help stabilize gold unless something happen but nothing to be affraid of this week.

About the oil market , Houston flooding will naturally disrupt the oil market a bit and the US could be forced to import some more than usual. Again, this may not be enough to move the WTI pricing needle too much.

The FED does not seems to be interested in rising rates that much this year so this will help GOLD and lower the US dollar.

The construction market will continue its correction and i expect HOV to slide a bit more getting close to a great entry point at about 1,75$

RAD should continue to trade sideways as it seems no one care to advise about the coming deal that was supposed to close end of august and that has been refiled again (i am sarcastically surprised !) and until then i don't expect anything else than little pops up or down. BUT this company has been shorted so much that if a positive new was to happen, shorters will get left with their pants down and a lot of $$$ would be needed to cover themselves. Expect chaos if that was to happen and prices to rise swiftly and rapidly.

FANG stocks should continue to move sideways but for 1 exception and it is Alphabet as they are getting close to announce their new Pixel 2 phone. I expect a 10-15$ pop.

On the Canadian side, be careful about Air Canada (AC) as it moved to high and too fast. It is getting ready to correct itself by a 5-10%. Same logic apply to Westjet (WJA)

Canadian banks are still some of the safest on the planet with a great dividend %. I don't expect any great moves either ways as Canadian markets are stable and this should continue for some time. One of the bank to check on is Laurentian Bank (LB). This is probably the bank with the worst service and the worst employee attitude but they are making a good turnaround in their profitability. I hate that bank on a service base but at this price this is a tempting trade occasion.

Great Panther (GPR or GPL in the US) continues to slowly climb. I do not expect any major move but it is poised to climb back toward the 2$ mark in Canada and 1,60$ in the US. Good mining company (small one) but no long term debt and profitable.

Potash is simply defying logic at this time so the same apply to Potash Canada (POT) and all the Canadian projects that are trying to see the light (as Encanto Potash  EPO). In the case of EPO it is simple: lots of talk but no action. It lead the share price spiral from 18 cents to 5 cents. Because there is a rule in Canada about financing where the share price cannot be under 5 cents to do a private placement (private financing by issuing additional shares) i expect a come back from this time and being on the Venture Market, prices are often manipulated right before financing is to be announced. This is a perfect example to buy low and sell high on the news.

So unless the world goes nut this week, it maybe more interesting to watch the paint dry than the performance of some stocks. Continue to watch my traders alert as we never know when the opportunity will knock on the door.


vendredi 25 août 2017

What about this friday ?

As mentioned earlier, this week  was only range bound trading without clear signal in either direction.

Still some interesting points:

1) OIL.....WTI is now 5$ behind BRENT......Hummmmmm will correct itself earlier next week and i presume WTI will go higher faster than BRENT

2) GOLD and SILVER are somewhat still range bound trapped. This was a week where not much happen and still many things lingering in the background. Will see next week

3) Rite Aid  (RAD).......not ready to give up on this one but it management surely know by now the best way to have their companies lose market value. They (Walgreen and Rite Aid) deserve an 'A' on that subject. I also think that shorts is now well above 250M shares based on actual readings. If good news were to come i know expect higher volume on that day most probably in the 200M shares traded.

4) Hovnanian (HOV) is getting back on its down slope as expected even if it had a dead cat bounce yesterday. Wait before getting in or if you can stomach the downside, you can start now only a bit a the time and get ready for some down swing again next week. If DOW correct itself by 3-4% expect HOV to go down by 15-20%. Remember that they have not been able to generate any profit this year in a year where number where really really good for the construction corps.

So about this week, i would say it was more interesting looking at the paint dry on a wall than the swings of the markets.

Another thing to remember: you will never make any money by buying stocks........you will make money by selling them at the right time.

Hope you all have fun this week my 30k readers.

jeudi 24 août 2017

TRADER ALERT RAD

Keep an eye on RAD today as volume et buying pressure seems to signal a change in direction.

Expect upward movement

TRADER ALERT SDRL

On august 21st i mentioned the fact that SDRL was a great trade for SHORTING the stock.

Well, in 3 days it has dropped like a rock and it now sits at 18 cents for a whopping 50% (well a bit more) in only 3 days. I think it is the right time to take the profit.

RUN OUT as fast as you can....

TRADER ALERT HOV (Hovnanian)

HOV has broken it 2$ support.

Expect downslide to continue.

Buying point at about 1,75$ to 1,80$

mardi 22 août 2017

OIL reserves from API report

At about 4.30 PM API will release preliminary results in regard of US oil reserves.

They are expected to have dropped by 3,4M barrels and any results indicating more than 3,4MB would immediately have a great impact on oil price.

That being the case, expect a good rise in the shares of MEG (tsx) and SUN.

Both are undervalued at this time  because of oil price but i suspect a rebound in the coming weeks so it could be a good time to get some $$$ in.

ALERT RAD Cross trade

There are significant cross trades happening right now on Rite Aid (RAD)

More than 3M shares in the last 10 minutes always at 2,25$.

This has happen 4 times in the last 2 trading days.

Wondering who is behind those shares exchange.

TRADER ALERT ( RAD)

Very interesting trading pattern here (again)

Nids are building up in the 2,20$ to 2,23$ and asks are getting thinner indicating that IF filing was to occur toady, some could be facing kind of a short squeeze and buying pressure could lead the stock value above 2,40$ very rapidly.

Do not forget that a lot more than 115M shares (July 31st report) are now shorted and with actual volume it could mean up to 6 trading days for shorters to cover up if RAD stays without news.

In case of great news, whoever shorted RAD could get in trouble and forced to buy very rapidly.

So, volume is still needed but anything over 20M shares traded could indicate a rapid upward movement.

Stay tuned.

lundi 21 août 2017

TRADER ALERT RAD

HIghest volume per 5 minutes in the last 5 trading days. (buying)

Expect a change in direction from NOW. Either a short seller trap around 2,25$ or a solid upward movement.

CHK (Chesapeake energy) Potential for a solid play

Very interesting play in the world of energy as it has now achieved it's lowest price for the year and could rebound rapidly with any OIL movement up.

This is a highly volatile play but can generate a 5-8% gain (or loss...) rapidly

Stay cautious

TESLA (TSLA) Alert

Tesla just moved under the 20 AND the 50 days moving average. Could now test the 311$ limit and this being a major floor, if it was to get under, watch for the 300$

ALERT RAD Critical key level

RAD has just touched the critical level of 2,21$

If it goes under 2,19$ get ready for a plunge toward 2$ otherwise, it may return to 2,40$ rapidly

ALERT MEG (tsx)

Good dip this morning as there are some profit taking.

Maybe the right time to buy some more at about 4,55$ to 4.60$

Expect a rebound from here

ALERT RAD

As of this morning, no filing has been made on Edgar system in regard of the transaction Walgreen and Rite Aid disclosed on June 30th.

Very interesting to note also that the filing was remove 1 day before the 30 days end for the transaction receiving ok'd to go.

Are we now witnesses to poor judgement and poor management from both companies?

To me it is a slap in the face (again).

Very very surprising and no wonder stock price continues to slide.

Another interesting week is about to begin

This could be the week where incertainty will reigns on many fronts.

Politics will definitely have its say especially in Korea where war games will have North Korea continues to treat the US with empty rhetorics but annoying anyways.

Markets have also started to trade in range bound: NOT GOOD and could signal a shift in direction probably in the negative as we are overdue and i do think markets are way overbought. This may not happen this week but it is definitely coming. Maybe a good time to build some cash reserve and remove some bad ones from the portfolio.

There is an interesting one for the shorter called SDRL that is suppose to complete its reorganisation leaving actual shareholders in the dark. This is not one that i like too much but if they reorganize as they say, there could be some money to be made by shorting it but again be very careful and don't forget your stops loss.

Banks may not be the winners this week. The FED is not really interested in another interest hike this year because of inflation under control and this should give a little boost to GOLD. So i would avoid that sector this week and get some profits off.

Giant Amazon (AMZN) will not leave it there in regards of retail. Actually i think they will continue to eat up more. So i would be a buyer of AMZN and seller of most of the retail companies to the exception of Best Buy (BBY) that i think will continue to survive simply because they have invested a lot on internet buying and their way of doing it is exceptionally good.

Alphabet (GOOGL) is mostly stock in range bound trading and could be headed for more trouble as they will definitely suffer from higher advertising cost. They do have great products coming but not enough in my opinion to counter balance the expense problems. I expect another month or two largely trading sideways or at a 2-3% value loss.

Great Panther (GPL, GPR in Canada) is still a mystery. I think the problem is mostly related to silver value being way way to much volatile but GPL is getting ready to explode. Nice company without long term debt and profitable. Should be well above 2$. Nice profit to be made here if patience is one of your quality......

Ford (F): no change in my opinion about stock trading to continue nearing 10,50$ (lowest in 4 years) and maybe a temporary drop around 10$. Great value and great time to get in a bit a the time.

Rite Aid (RAD) That merger, euh, sale has been refiled (was to be last week) and they have now a new date of September 28th (or kind of) date to have their plans......reviewed. Not sure that those 2 management boards are planning but there is 1 question remaining: what happen to the clause of non-competitive deal that was to last 60 days? Is this not supposed to be ended by August 31st ? If this is still right who else will try to buy Rite Aid ? FRED......AMZN......Who else? Sure they know now how to get their share value going down and they now have mastered this art. STAY PRUDENT.

Hovnanian (HOV) is continuing its descent and unless something interesting happen, well they could break the 2$ limit then it could go as low as 1,60$. So this one is only good for some rapid trades hoping to grab 2-3% profit at the time.

Meg Energy (MEG TSX): Great upside to come. Definitely a good buy and its the same for Suncor (SUN)  but a lot less volatile.

Yamana Gold (AUY  YRI on the TSX) goes with gold value and actually good be a great one for some fast trades as volatility should continue to be high on Gold.

Have fun and stay tuned for some alerts this week  

vendredi 18 août 2017

ALERT FORD (F)

Ford is now at its lowest level since 4 years.

Even if i consider that bottom may not have been reached yet, it could be a good time to get back in a little a the time to avoid a falling knife situation.

In my opinion, it is now oversold and it could continue a bit if dow goes into correction.

If that was to happen, we could see 9,50$ to 9,75$ but it would not last.

This is safe heaven time

Honestly i do not like what i am seeing right now on many fronts.

President Trump is unable to keep his close friends 'close' to him as in the different councils he had organized himself and this could put his 'huge' plans on the side line for some time.

Amazon (AMZN) continues to scare most of the retailers except WallMart and Best Buy and even then is unable to stay above the 1000$ bracket.

Alphabet (GOOGL) still have difficulties with advertising cost going higher

Car makers (Ford in particular) are in trouble for sales being only correct nothing more but valued way above the 'correct' level

And i could continue with geo political events unclear to which direction they will go to......

All together, i only see a couple of winners at this time and it is gold, silver and oil.

Gold because by itself it is a safe heaven (by the way stay away from Bitcoin as it could get slammed) and silver because China being a great consumer and there economy is still running smoothly.

Oil has always been on the rise when conflicts appears and actually there is one major one not really taken into account and that is Venezuela.

So at this time, it would be wise to get some profit off the table and turn some of them into gold.

I expect a severe market corrections on all tech companies and this could lead to a flash crash by a domino effect.

Have a great week-end all. 


jeudi 17 août 2017

What's exciting this Friday

Ford: (F) getting close to my 10,50$ target. At that price it could be interesting to get in IF market stabilizes a bit. Watch for the DOW to react to toady's drop of 274 point as it could be the start of a correction and if that was to be the case, expect Ford to continue dropping toward 10,25$. In any case at 10,25$ or 10,50 it is a could entry point

Great Panther (GPL...GPR-TSX) Very interesting gain this week but still too early to sell in my opinion. If results continues to be that interesting, it could reach 2$ rapidly. It will not shout out straight to 2$ but it is getting there. Remember no long term debt for this one.

RAD Oh man this one is tricky. They even removed their last filing and no way to know if their refiling was done today. Wondering what is in it and i expect not much change except for a couple of stores here and there but again, i cannot trust totally this management team so stay carful. Volume tomorrow will indicate the direction. Low volume, more drops high volume great gain.

Gold will continue to raise but expect a lot of resistance at 1300$. But based upon open contracts (options call and put) i would not be surprised to see gold cross 1310$ on Monday so it could be a nice move to have some $$$  invested on that one

Barcelona's attacks, Trump losing it, Korea etc, a lot that could move the market rapidly.

Have fun and a nice week end to all my 30,000 (and more...) readers.

RAD alert

It seems that Rite Aid and Walgreen have remove their filing in regard of the transaction between the two.

They indicated that they would be refilling probably today or tomorrow and this will extend AGAIN the deadline for approval to mid September.

What is going on at this time is well beyond me and i would be very careful at this time as something has changed AGAIN.....

mardi 15 août 2017

ALERT RAD

The trading pattern on RAD is exactly the same as yesterday and could indicate a large rebound and directional change toward my 2,75$ expectation.

Still, stay careful about a trader trap but trading as it is for two consecutive days does indicate that bulls are trying to regain control of RAD.

lundi 14 août 2017

Rite Aid....a couple of IF'S

I was looking today on documents filed from Rite Aid in regard of their new store sales to Walgreen and what were the documents sent to FTC for review and unless i cannot read anymore, none was to be found.

This is at first really weird and tough about it for the reasons behind the fact that no document were filed since their announcement.

Here are some if's

1) Based upon their statement on the day they announced the sale they indicated that this 'will be a clear path'. Could that mean it is already approved by the FTC ?

2) If so, why no official release? Could it be because the FTC rules are in regard of the different states where Rite Aid is operating at this time and that they could have a minimal presence required to get the deal approved?

3) Could that explain why in the news release it was mentioned that the number of stores could vary a little ?

4) Could it be that at this time they are simply reviewing which stores to keep in some areas even if they already disclosed the pro forma results if results were 'after the sale' ?

5) Could it be that FTC already cleared the sale when this simple point has been corrected ?

It is hard to believe that either of those company would have gone so far in any kind of deal without prior consent from FTC and IF they were to had simply throw numbers to gain some investor confidence (no comment....) it would be a first in my recollection of more than 30 years of trading.

In my humble opinion, the deal is sealed, signed and delivered and some minor details are to be adresse before FTC gives its final clearance.

In the FTC history there is no deal that went to a second offer that have ever been rejected (please correct me if i am wrong)

Shorters: get ready to implode if news were to happen this week. You already have shorted over 110M shares (based upon july 31st stockwatch.com numbers) and in case of overnight news, there is simply no defence against that so better start to cover yourself before the storm hits you.

If before the deal was at 9$ including debt, it meant that it was a 16$ per share total (7$ of debt per share + the 9$ originally offered) and cut that in half for half the stores, it would mean that Rite Aid is now valued at 8$ per shares for the remaining of the company......

It is trading at 2,33$ meaning a possible gain of 5,67$ per share or 250% in a couple of days if the deal was to close rapidly.

Get ready and have fun.

ALERT RAD

Strange volume increase during the beginning of the last hour.

Been quiet all day than now major shift in volume and large orders.

Strange strange strange.

Either a trader trap or the rumor of FTC approval is getting bigger OR shorters are getting covered dur to the same reason

Trader point of view: INTERESTING but stay careful

How is this week shaping up (in my opinion)

I think that this will be a week without too much disturbance where OIL will continue to trade range bound and GOLD should do the same.

I do not expect that much of a swing anywhere but who knows.....things sometimes happen very fast.

My favorites for this week:

RAD (Rite Aid): it is still trying to get past its 2,45$ resistance but volume is still too low to have it goes over it. DO NOT SHORT as this one is getting dangerous and could explode with any good new.

F (Ford): continues to linger nowhere and i expect the fall will continue toward 10,50$ and maybe lower. Results were not good and there is no catalyst to change direction at this time.

GPL (Great Panther): drill results in Peru are looking ok and it could benefit from it this week.

GOOGL (Alphabet): I suspect it will get back to about 950$ this week but again this is another example or range bound trading.

AMZN (Amazon): Due to rebound toward to 1000$ mark and this could be the right week to accomplish it.

HOV (Hovnanian): continues to slide. No volume and going down. Not good. Could easily touch 2,01$ this week. If that happens and if it breaks the 2$, watch out. At this time stay on sideline.

EPO (Encanto Potash): still a strange game happening over this one. No way to know for sure what is right ans what is wrong. It is a wait and see game.

MEG (Meg Energy) It could suffer this week from 2 different things: profit taking and oil again in range bound trading pattern. Patience will be needed for the next rebound but this is an explosive stock

Have fun and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

lundi 7 août 2017

Alert RAD

If it breaks above 2,44$, the next stop is 2,90$

It is in the resistance area an it only needs some decent volume.

What about this week ???

Canadian markets are close Monday on here is what i will be looking for this week.

1) Will be interesting to see the answer from North Korea in regard of the new sanctions imposed on them. We have to take note that these sanctions may have been drafted and agreed but every country has now the obligation to adhere to those and it is not yet certain. This by itself could make gold attractive as a safe haven in case our friend over there decide to do another missile test in retaliation to these sanctions. Keep an eye on gold.

2) RAD: this one does not obey by any market rules.....range bound and far away from my 2,75$ price point called recently. Still believe that this is a way oversold stock but the absence of nice volume almost indicates that i am the only one thinking this way. I don't care being the only one as long as it reaches my target......

3) Oil rally.......see item 1 and add this to it: What is going on in Venezuela? Surprisingly, it does not seem that it disturbed the market too much but it could. Instability is not a good friend here in regard of prices.

4) HOV is getting close to oversold. Not there yet but it's coming. Very disturbing that the shorts have cover their back recently. More than half of the shorties are gone and this could indicate that HOV could be on the verge of a great upside swing. Keep an eye but stay prudent on this one.

5) EPO (Encanto Canada TSX) is a strange beast to get into. Nobody knows for sure it is not another fail startup in Canada or a hoax BUT if the story is true, it could be a very very interesting stock to watch in the coming weeks and months. I do think it is a valid corporation and that whatever was 'signed' (in theory...) was real. If that mine's really worth 2B$ and if they could find funds needed to proceed, it would be a major disruptor in the potash market and a great company to have invested in. At this time, it is a nice place to invest some left over coins......but we must stay careful.

6) TSLA: Oh my god was i wrong on this one.......But we have to stay very careful here because if there was to be any glitch anywhere in their deliveries,  it would be punished very badly. So still side lined at this time.

7) GOOGL: Alphabet was in my opinion severely battered recently when they released their quarterly results and i think it was a bit  too much. I do expect kind of range bound between 925$ and 975$ but it is highly sensitive to any new bad or good. At a 1000$ price, i prefer some other stocks at this time.

8) AMZN: This is the biggest disruptor possible in the market. They can and they will continue to change the face of retail side for many years to come. I would stay out of any retail stock with probably Best buy being the only exception.(BBY)

9) Silver is moving in the right direction but very slowly. Still the same for GPL (Great Panther GPR in Canada) as they are awaiting some permits. If they get them rapidly, stock will perform accordingly (upward to 2$ for GPL) otherwise it could go back to 1$ rapidly

That is it for this week and let see how it will unfold.

As usual, be careful and invest only what you can afford to lose. 

mardi 1 août 2017

ALERT RAD

Buy signal is now in.

Expect resistance at 2,45$ but volume is increasing rapidly and bids are also showing great signal of strenght.

Does not look as a false signal (at this time) but stay careful

Air Canada (AC Toronto TSX)

With actual value of Air Canada, i would call that over from a trader point of view.

AC has been a great great investment but i think now it is above itself and the risk reward ratio is not relevant anymore and a lot more risky.

In my opinion, i would quit That position and look for another great one.

ALERT RAD

Based upon readings from many sources, RAD should get FTC approval rapidly.

Expect the stock to rally on nice volume.

Good signal would be over 30M shares and closing over 2,40$

Be careful to false signal where it goes back to the 2,25$ floor so it is better to wait until it closes over the 20 days moving average.

ALERT FORD results

Not good, not good not good

Expect some disturbance in the stock price and i would hold a couple of days until it stabilizes.

We could even see prices close to 10.50$

Time to simply wait and stay on sidelines.

lundi 31 juillet 2017

What i will be checking up this week

This should be a quiet week (on the trading volume) but i will continue to monitor the following stocks:

1) MEG (tsx): will it continue to rise toward the 200 days moving average and get back over the 6$

2) YRI (tsx or  AUY  US market): greatly oversold and ready to pop up. 3,50$ is the next target

3) GPR (tsx or GPL US market): This is a very surprising one. It should already had passed the 1,75$ mark (canadian market) and still hovering around in a range bound.

4) F: should be starting it's recovery soon

5) GOOGL: don't count this one out for a good % return. Was smacked down for almost nothing now expect a rebound.

6) HOV: near its bottom and almost ready to climb back toward 2,75$

7) RAD: what a surprise but with volume so low, nowhere to go but down. I expect some large players to take notice of its price and get back in.

Have fun this week

dimanche 30 juillet 2017

YRi (AUY )

Keep an eye on this one.

This is an explosive stock that could procure a very nice return on a relatively short period of time.

All my indicators are showing way too oversold and it is ready to change direction as of now.

Target price of 4,75$ can$ (YRI)

vendredi 28 juillet 2017

RAD update

Oh boy was i wrong on this one........

Since it touched 2,77$, it has been a long and never ending descent even if a change in direction was indicated at about 2,40$

False signal......

Now RAD needs volume to get back on track until then, i still believe it is valued a lot more than the actual price but caution must be exercised here.

Another good example to always take some profit off the table when it hits a desired level (2,75$ in that case)

Lets see  how it plays out today.

jeudi 27 juillet 2017

MEG (Canada) C H E E R S !

Excellent results for the quarter and excellent stock price appreciation for this week.

Grab some profit but look at details for the quarter. It could very well be a highly profitable company.

Look at cost per barrel of oil. Very Very LOW....

That is performance.

mercredi 26 juillet 2017

FORD (F) as a follow up

Their revenues and profit are up.

So will the stock follow? Yes

I think that at this range it is a great time to get in a little. Just be careful as the DOW did had a great run recently and could correct a bit.

MEG energy.......Good call !!!

Now that it has happen, what to do ?

I still expect some range bound numbers for the next week so maybe take some profit off the table and be ready if it slip a bit.

My expectations are that oil will be in the 54-57$ range for the coming months and MEG will follow with a 5,50$ to 6$ but in any case, pocket some profit.

mardi 25 juillet 2017

MEG energy (Canada) is on a nice rebound

MEG is now over PSAR and over 20 days moving average eating up the spread with 50 days moving average.

IF oil was to stabilize a bit over 50$, expect a run up toward the 6,27$ 200 days moving average.

Good chunk of profit to be made here if OIL continues to stay around 50$ but expect resistance at 4,45$ (can $)

RAD Another good one


EnvisionRx, 
      a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) and division of EnvisionRxOptions, a 
      wholly owned subsidiary of Rite 
      Aid Corporation, today announced that it has achieved renewal 
      of the Pharmacy 
      Benefit Management accreditation by URAC. EnvisionRx is one of only 
      27 PBMs to receive this accreditation, which Envision has held since 
      2006. This demonstrates a continuous, comprehensive commitment to 
      quality care, improved processes, transparency and better patient 
      outcomes.



SOURCE: EnvisionRx

EnvisionRxOptions Media contact: 
Bobby Creek, 813-690-8503 
bcreek@envisionrx.com
Copyright Business Wire 2017

Churn is almost done for today. Expect a run up

LVS MLCO (Las vegas and and Melco Resort)

With all that is happening right now in China and North Korea, it could really well affect results in Hong Kong.

So i am out at this time of these 2 corps until something more positive happen.

Be very very careful here

FORD........keep an eye on it

It has corrected a bit yesterday moving under 20 and 50 days moving average but expect a comeback.

I still see Ford as a 12-13$ stock before year end with a lot more volatility.

Tesla is coming into the US big 3 to maybe become the big 4th but it is not done yet as they still have to show that their latest model is a great one.

Do not underestimate FORD......never

GOOGL Alphabet....don't get it wrong

Ok, cost for coming ads will be higher and profit less for Alphabet. So what?????

It dropped about 35$ in late trading yesterday. That is a 3,5% drop as if Ford would drop 40 cents.....

REMEMBER this is a 1000$ dollar stock and any 3-4% move looks huge but it is not.

There were no dumping yesterday and i do not expect more today.

This is a great opportunity to get back in before new products hit the market later this year.

I expect a new Pixel phone sometime early September and based upon their success, that will rock for Google (again).

So do not see the recent small drop as a negative indicator.....it is not.

RAD get ready

Rumors are circulating more and more this week regarding Rite Aid and this could affect trading on RAD in a positive way.

I expect another good run toward 2,85$ and more rapidly if it goes over 2,63$ (20 days moving average)

Have a look at PSAR........very very close.

Get ready for a nice bump.

lundi 24 juillet 2017

RAD Watch out for tomorrow

Ok, as i mentioned today with only 40 minutes left, RAD reversed trend to end up in gain.

Now what is really interesting is the fact that only after 45 minutes in the after hours trades, more than 1,1M shares have already traded and RAD is still holding gains and now at 2,50$

What does this mean?

There are some street rumors about Amazon getting into it and even if i do not think it could really be in the plans for now, i expect more volume today (after hours) and a nice run up tomorrow unless something else negatively impact it.

Stay tuned!

ALERT RAD new bottom formed

SImply to point out that on a low volume day normally stock does retreat but it could be the opposite for RAD today.

If it was to close above 2,48$ that could mean the next run up has started.

40 minutes to go and looking interesting and actually at 2,44$.

ALERT AUY (Yamana Gold) YRI (tsx)

AUY (YRI in Canada) has been smashed down today after it hit above his 20 days moving average on friday and now is under his 20 days moving average.

If it can close above  3.17 today (Canadian $) expect a good rebound before quarter results are released on thursday.

If not expect the drop to continue until then.

As far as i am concerned it is oversold and ready for rebound as the latest move is not gold price related but traders related.

But be careful as those movements could be violent!

HOV is almost back

After being really oversold for the past 2 weeks, i expect the down movement to stop near the actual.

2,35$ to 2,40$ is a good entry point and at this time seems to be the bottom.

They have refinanced their long term debt and i suspect profit will be there on the next earning report that should be reported around september 5th or 6th.

Expect another run toward 2,85$

RAD On the verge of a nice movement

Based upon last days of trading, RAD is getting close to a direction shift. I still expect another boost toward 3$.

My last call at 2,75$ did materialised last week and after a good run, some profit taking and churn, today could be the last day of side trading.

jeudi 20 juillet 2017

ALERT MEG (TSX Canada) Trader opportunity

Trading activity on MEG indicates a high possibility of reaching close to 4.75 - 4.95$ rapidly.

Upward movement has been very rapid on high volume.

Oil is stabilizing and i would not be surprise to see the actual rise continue next week.

Get ready for some rapid profit.

ALERT EPO (Canada Venture) UPDATE

Volume for today has been abnormal for a day without a gain or a loss.

Only 7 times since 04-2016 did EPO had volume over 3M shares and each time a nice upward movement was seen .

Looking at the past and without a gain, i am questioning that strange trading when most of the trading is realised by Anonymous (well above 2M shares today and net position of 1,4M).

Couple of possibilities:

1) A reverse split is in the cards and coming in the next couple of days. Those in the know (or thinking about that possibility )  would be selling shares to grab them back at lower price (after the reverse split) as most of the time shares do fell apart. For example look at WRX (TSX Canada).

2) A PP is coming with some flow throught shares attached with it where investors get some credits for buying those shares.

3) A gypsy swap is getting into effect. Also called gypsy trade, an owner of shares transfer his shares to the future owner of shares from another PP. This way the new buyer is not in the obligation to wait a certain period of time before selling his shares and the original share owner receive the shares that has the waiting period.

4) Trader trick trying to get the market respond by increasing the value of the shares to dump them later on.

5) Shareholder(s) are leaving the boat but try not to get shares under a certain level

6) There is kind of financing coming at a pre established share price. Even if considered illegal as being price manipulation, there is at least another occasion where this occurred in the last years. (i will not name the company for obvious reasons but it did happen)

So there are many many possibilities and no one know for sure. Personally, with the kind of trading i saw today, i think the number 6 is by far the most probable cause of the action we are seeing the last of days and the set price is at 5 cents (or 50 cents after reverse split) and could explain why in a day like today a 164K bloc appeared at 3:22 pm when only 4k shares were left to grab.....

The last days action is interesting and tomorrow being Friday, i am expecting another day with nice volume and little movement then on Monday expect something.

Have fun

RAD trading opportunity

With the recent move up to 2,77$ (as expected) there has been a lot of profit taking for traders.

Price should stabilize around 2,48$ to 2,50$ and does represents a good trading opportunity for the next run up to about the same level.

Expect a good technical rebound from here.

mercredi 19 juillet 2017

ALERT EPO. TC (TSX Canada)

Based upon last couple of days trading, i am under the impression that something is brewing and we could expect some kind of run up for that company.

It could be either some news about financing or trading company , but i expect something before week end.

Naturally i could be totally wrong, but most of the time when you see the trading pattern we now have on EPO, it is followed by some kind of news.

To confirm that, volume has be at about the same volume tomorrow, with a small gain.

Let's see how that unfold.

Be careful this is a Canadian Venture company.

mardi 18 juillet 2017

GPL (Great Panther) is back

Say hello again to Great Panther (GPL) mining corp in Mexico and now Peru.

After many weeks of decline and churn, it has now gone over the 20 and 50 days moving average.

GPL results are good enough to send it back toward the 1,60$

Great company and great management without debt. No need to say more.

I am back in!

Rite Aid (RAD) One last point

One last point not to forget about RAD: the impact of the Obamacare repeal.

I do believe it will impact positively the net profit of Rite Aid as they may not be forced to cut on margins to help américains.

Sad, it is but unfortunately true.

RAD: True value starting to emerge

The real value of Rite Aid after last proposed deal is starting to emerge and after all this could be a very good deal even if Rite Aid will now become a regional player with far less stores than before.

In any case, who care the number of stores as long as profit is there.

The release of pro forma numbers did create an immediate impact as it would rather seems that many players on RAD were under the impression that RAD got rid of the best stores only to keep the non performing one.

Have fun and go read on Edgar the forms posted yesterday. It is quit interesting. 

lundi 17 juillet 2017

EPO (Canadian Venture Market) Is this story real or a hoax ???

If you have some coins left over from other nice profits realized elsewhere, here is a story that could be interesting.

REMEMBER: This is a Canadian Venture company. I have seen many occasions where investors loss everything dime of their investment as it is an exchange for start up companies and many of them will close well before seeing a dime in profit.

EPO is a development company trying to build a potash mine in Canada in partnership with first nations.

Now, if the story is true, it could be ready to explode at levels never seen for a potash company especially in Canada.

Here it is.

They say they have signed an agreement for a 20 years potash supply to India. (we never saw the actual contract nor any part of it and we have to rely on management about facts in regard of the contract)

They say they now have a company that will find and supply India with potash until such a time that EPO mine is build and ready to ship

They say they have the rights to build

They say the have the resources.

BUT

Since then shares have been crushed and are hovering 5.5 canadian cents.........

So what is wrong?

POSSIBILITIES:

No investors have seen the smallest part in regard of those mentioned points.

No investors have the sentiments it could be true.

Management is not trusted to be able to deliver

IF that story was to be true, there are very interesting profit to be made here.

Now, read and do your DD and if you believe the story, get in NOW and be ready for a fantastic profit ride.

DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

IMPORTANT: There is a Canadian rule avoiding any private placement under 5 cents a shares. So expect a great run up to finance OR a reverse split.

vendredi 14 juillet 2017

Rite Aid: Have we reached the bottom?

Based upon last couple of days trading, YES we have reach the bottom.

Even if i mentioned recently that i was expecting a 2,75$ in a couple of days, i am still of the same opinion unless naturally something happen that we are not aware at this time.

So it could well be the time to get back in with a nice profit % looming rapidly.

lundi 10 juillet 2017

RAD: get ready

Based upon trading pattern for RAD, get ready for a shift in direction with a good increase in price.

My target for the next 2-3 days is 2,75$

jeudi 6 juillet 2017

OIL: Is it manipulated ?

Based upon reaction to today great news, i will have to admit it is and a lot.

Texas Oil went form a 1,20$ gain to a 20 cents gain in about 15 minutes......

Sure looks like traders are in control of it and would tend to think the same for gold.

Now, how to beat them?

I will continue to do some bottom fishing on companies like MEG-TO and SU-TO as even if they are not highly profitable at those oil price level, it is my opinion that this could not go forever.

As far as i am concerned, MEG for example has hit an all time low and seems like a bargain at this price.

Will it go lower ? Could be but i think the bottom as been reached and some nice buying could be on it's way.

Do your own DD

RAD: What's the real value

Well, it is simple math:

THE VALUE OF RITE AID IS THE VALUE SOMEBODY WANTS TO PAY FOR IT""""""

Interestingly, the original deal was 9$ a share and this also included debt vor a REAL deal value of about 14$ a share.

I personally think RAD is now well over sold and hard to believe that the real value of RAD is at 2,36$

When the deal close (and this one will) it would mean that 3/4 of the debt will be erased and still RAD will hold 50% of the stores that were there when the original deal was announced.

So what is the real value of RAD: 9$ a share including debt and in now way (personal opinion) the actual trading value.

Do your own DD naturally but expect a good rebound from here on any news.

vendredi 30 juin 2017

RAD got crushed

Very surprising that the merger deal was cancelled at the last minute without warnings and the day after it was rumored that it was going to happen.

Now that being said, where in the world is going RAD ?

Will they use their 5B $ and repay back old debts ?

What would be the impact ?

Can we believe in a turnaround ?

Any other suspected merger possibilities ?

What about deferred taxes assets ?

So in my humble opinion, RAD is at the time victim of a failed merger and should continue to trade sideline for the next couple of weeks.

First the transaction will not impact results for another 2-3 months because the selling of those stores is planned on a six months span.

IF RAD decide to really use their 5B$ to repay debts, that would leave about 2B$ in long term debts and even if number of stores if almost cut in half, it would be a lot more manageable unless WBA got their best stores and left the crap behind. That we do not know yet......and we will have a better idea on the next quarter report based upon sales per location and profit per location compare to actual figures.

Then, during that time, anything could happen and a new buyer could come up like Amazon trying to get their boots into the pharmacy business without all the preliminary work.

Rite Aid also has a deferred 1,5B$ in deferred tax assets that could be valuable to some buyers.

So as of now, RAD could be interesting at today's value if you can swallow the ups and downs for the next quarter.

This will be a highly speculative stock going forward but as usual, nice profit is always a direct conclusion of a highly volatile stock.

Stay highly prudent.

jeudi 6 octobre 2016

Gold: expect a rebound from here

What a drop gold has suffered in the last couple of sessions.

My opinion: shorting it as if there were no tomorrow.

I personally think it is way oversold and i expect a turn around tomorrow and Monday.

Have fun!

vendredi 30 septembre 2016

OIL IS UP NEXT ONE IS GOLD

As previously mentioned the OPEC deal has been agreed. What it really means is that members have agreed to agree on some kind of a deal that we do not have all the details.

Will oil continue to climb: yes but this could be a maybe as details have not yet emerged.

Next one is gold with the recent events at the deutsche bank that could send markets on a downward spiral.

Time will tell but i expect a great increase in gold value and add in a survey showing that Mr. Trump takes the lead, it could create a small storm into the markets.

Have fun

lundi 12 septembre 2016

interest rate: hike or not ?

I believe there will not be a hike until December as reports from USA do not suggest any base for a hike in September and anything els is only fear and rumors.

Only a guess but.....i would be greatly surprise if FED was to hike interest until then.

mercredi 7 septembre 2016

ALERT ALERT MAJOR OIL DRAW

If report is true, tomorrow morning report of oil inventory will indicate a draw over 10M barrels in a week.

If that is to be true, then expect violent stock price movement until  the  report  is  official  around   11 A.M.

This could be the largest draw since 1985

Stay tune for official news.

jeudi 1 septembre 2016

Gold: where is the bottom

Gold is on a freefall and volatility is high.

Expect perturbations with rapid price movement for the coming months.

If September 2nd job report is under expectation (under 175,000) gold could rebound rapidly in a close to violent move as it could signal not intérêts hike until end of December and a drop in US dollar value.

As of now, stock also tend to take for granted that elections winner will be Hilary Clinton. Now what would happen is Donald Trump was to take lead in some areas???

My take is that August job report has never been that good so i expect a job report under expectation.

Expect high volatility and have fun 

mardi 30 août 2016

RAD Expect higher volatility

We are getting very close to a decision about the merger with WBA and because of the fact that there is still some possibilities that this deal would be rejected, i expect a lot more volatility between 6,50$ and 7,35$.

As of now no decision has been made and based upon declarations from RAD, i expect the decision to be positive and the go ahead given with conditions to sell some assets along the way.

This could simply move further the merger date to early 2017 allowing time for them to get rid of the assets needed to allow the transaction.

If that was to happen, expect a higher range of trading and lot more profit to be made.

But be careful as price could get down a lot more and closer to 4$ if the delay is longer than a quarter.

Have fun

jeudi 18 août 2016

Oil is on fire.........

I know bad choice of words but could not resist....

Some time ago i insisted on the fact that oil would recover mainly because major producers could not stay in business with oil under 40$.

We are now on the verge of a major agreement between Russia and the Saudies.

My guess is that balance oil price is around 60$ and that oil will get there before end of this year.

But in any case, during that tim eit will be interesting to play the swings from oil on large Canadian companies like MEG.TO and SU.TO

I still own large number of shares in MEG and i sold out SU mainly because MEG is a lot more volatile and easy to play.

Have fun

jeudi 21 juillet 2016

Will Rite Aid merger get finally the go ahead signal?

Based upon rumors and smoke signals it would seem that it wont get approved.

But any problem are to be reported and as mentioned by management on their last results report:

 <>

If that merger was to be in jeopardy, it would be a material event to be disclosed to avoid being misleading and opening the door to lawsuit.

Fo sure the trade commission will force the selling of many many of their stores to avoid any business advantage and it is also certain that CVS will do its best to get the deal rejected.

As far as i am concern, this deal will get approved mid September with conditions that Rite Aid And Walgreen will accept.

During this time expect higher volatility based upon rumors and ear say.

So invests with that in mind.

Have fun

mardi 19 juillet 2016

Construction sector is red HOT

As previously mentioned, the construction sector in the US is hot and the last data from this morning should reflect on the construction sector companies like BZH, KBH and my preferred one HOV.

HOV is my preferred as this is the underdog that has been undervalued for years mainly because of its debt but close to 2B$ in tax credit is most of the time forgot.

I am sticking on it anc this is the time to get back in with a sell price at 2,15$ within the next month..

Have fun 

lundi 11 juillet 2016

Will that rally last ?

Expect some good gains to come and watch out for a correction.

I will start selling today and pocket large part of my recent paper profits and then wait for an interesting correction.

Dow at 18k has never last that long and i do think it is overbought at this time as earning season approaches and i do not expect major profit increase.

Naturally i could be wrong but i prefer to pocket some profit and then lose some than the opposite.

There will be some bargain hunting coming down our way within a couple of weeks.

Stay tuned!!!

mardi 5 juillet 2016

Up Down or nowhere

We will start experimenting  weird trading pattern today.

Gold to retreat, oil to do the same and stocks going nowhere.

There are many uncertainties in regard or the UK leaving the EU as it would seem that all those in charge of this exit are now leaving the boat stating <
How could they say that. The vote has been casted but as far as i know UK is still part of the EU and this will continue to rock markets.

As for oil and gold, this will continue to be paradise for the traders giving the fact that market has no direction to go.

Also VERY important is the fact that DOW is now very close to the 18K mark and could face a small retreat.

So be careful and remember that for this moment cash is king.

Have fun

mercredi 22 juin 2016

Tesla: is the party over???

What a strange move from Tesla. It bought what????? SOLAR ????

When you invest in a car company you expect that company to design build and sell cars.

Not exactly what's behind it latest move.

Could i say that investors will not agree and get out?

Based upon early trading this is exactly what is happening and i am not surprised.

So for the moment being stay out of there. Party is over.

lundi 20 juin 2016

Be careful

With Britain vote coming up rapidly expect highly volatile market.

Expect major ups and down in regard of oil and gold.

Get ready for any occasion as during the following days, cash will be king to grab any short term opportunities.

No matter what, i would not be fully investing come the vote results. I still expect markets to react negatively either side of the vote but naturally downsize will be larger if YES win than the opposite.

Have fun

samedi 18 juin 2016

What to expect next week

Well, BREXIT will definitely be the one thing everybody will talk about.

Will Britain leave or not??? That is the question.

Now, based upon that nightmare, Gold will definitely be a momentum play early this week but even if actual scores would lead you to think Britain will exit, my guess is that this will not happen.

IF that does not happen, gold will get back to actual value and even a bit lower and stocks will NOT get a lot higher. Stocks have already taken into account the possibility and it could be more of a buy the rumor and then sell the news.

IF that does happen, stock will decline massively for 1 or 2 days then will recover.

So my play is early Monday buy gold and play on uncertainty only to sell either at 10% gain in a couple of days or late Wednesday.

I will also make sure i have plenty of cash ready just in case this vote is a yes and then take the opportunity to do some bottom fishing on stocks like DAN, LVS and MPEL (highly volatile in those circonstances)

So get ready for a week full of interesting happenings.

Have fun

jeudi 9 juin 2016

Will Suncor continue to shop around for great deals?

It would seems so based upon their latest announcement in regard of a 2,9B$ shares bought deal.

By the way it is close to the biggest bought deal in Canada if not the biggest.

What does that mean?

Well that mean any corporation making profit in Canada oil sands sector valued at about that price could become a target to a hostile take over.

My guess: MEG energy   (MEG.TO)

Profitable with a surprise quarter and valued at about 2B$.

Also very interesting is their production price per barrel.

Have fun and have a look into their last quarter release. It could be worthy......

lundi 6 juin 2016

HOV Have we seen the bottom

I think so.

1,65$ to 1,69$ range seems appropriate at this time.

HOV has made promises that it will have now to deliver in regard of earnings. It should generate enough to cover this year to date losses and if accurate i can expect a 2,25$ to 2,45 range during the 3rd quarter.

The question now is: will it deliver?

jeudi 2 juin 2016

HOV not really good last quarter But is this that bad?

Well, nice way to miss a prediction.... Instead of a large profit HOV posted a small loss and stock plunged like a rock.

It did however recoup some of the losses today and tomorrow will indicate the real trust investors have toward HOV.

Expect another roller coaster day but there is light based upon their overall results that were in fact not bad at all.


mardi 31 mai 2016

ALERT HOV

On Thursday morning HOV will announce their results and it will be a catalyst either side.

IF HOV was able to generate a profit around 10 cents for the last quarter, expect a positive ride.

If their profit was over 20 cents, well get ready as it will hit the roof.

If no profit, expect 1,40$ or less.

Drum roll please:


I EXPECT between 20 and 30 cents profit and a major share price increase and this is based upon all contributing factors in the USA: low unemployment, higher new home sales and higher price.

I suspect that this trend has started many months ago and that it will reflect on their last quarter.

I also expect a great increase on their backlog and a large increase of that backlog value based on the same reasons.

Will i be right (again)

We shall see by Thursday lunch time.......

mardi 24 mai 2016

Contruction sector is on fire

Based upon today's US report of the construction sector, i would say that my first call about it was correct.

HOV and KBH will be the next one to profit.

HOV already made some good gains from 1,54 late last week to the 1,74 of today.

I still expect HOV to get well over 2$ if results are simply correct but could rally to a new 52 weeks high if results goes ahead of analyst consensus.

I took some profit off the table today but will take a wait and see approach until mid next wee.

Have fun

lundi 23 mai 2016

This coming week

This will be a very very interesting week on many fronts.

Oil: Watch for SUNCOR (SU.TSX) as they will be restarting soon the production and oil has stabilized around 50$ a barrel.

HOV is within 10 days of reporting their last quarter results. What will they be?

Expect highly volatile sessions coming for the next 10 days for the reason that if results were to be over expectations shares could rapidly climb over 2,25$ otherwise they could fall near 1,25$.

Have fun.

jeudi 19 mai 2016

Air Canada Normal course issuer bid

Very interesting as Air Canada has renewed their right to repurchase company shares until 2017 for close to 3M of those shares (10% of the total float)

The impact on share price combined with actual results makes me think there is a very good upside for their share price.

So after selling most of those around 9,75 and buying back many at 9,30 and around, i will be accelerating the purchase of those shares as long as the price is under 9,60$

Have fun

mercredi 18 mai 2016

June interest hike

Finally, it will eliminate the incertitude about where and when......

Those invested in US$ saw a devise gain today and the trend should continue for a couple of days.

As for oil, Suncor has evacuated staff from their plant BUT i still believe it will be for shorter period than previously announced.

Actual share price indicates a good time to get back in.

As for construction sector, interest hike will not change anything on the next earnings as it was for period ending march.

It sill then be interesting to listen closely to what they have to say in regard of Q3 as Q2 is already well advance.

Have fun

lundi 16 mai 2016

Alert Apple

Apple will surely rise today after Warren Buffet news about his stake in Apple.

BUT be careful, this is a temporary patch on the share price because the reality check is not Warren Buffet BUT the capacity from Apple to create a new revolution and not only another evolution.

BE CAREFUL......

dimanche 15 mai 2016

Alert on Air Canada

Expect a rebound on Air Canada shares early this week.

Actual valuation simply does not make any sense.

Get ready

Alert on Canadian Oil Producers

Expect a return to normal earlier than originally thought

Expect SUNCOR (SUN) to restart production within 10 days or earlier.

Time to get back in

This coming week

Construction sector has been hit hard in regard of share price.

HOV has been hammered and sits now at 1,54$ that I suspect will not hold too long.

Same for HBK

I think that we could see an interesting reversal this week as the DOW has been negative for the past 3 weeks.

So in my opinion it is time to get back in those 2 and lets see how goes the week.

My entry point is between 1,50 and 1,59 for HOV with an exit point around 1,80

Have fun