UPDATE TVI

Reading the posts all around the place today i think we are in need of some clarification between large mineralisation and economical to drill.

Remember that gold is actually at a very high price and even if that could change, some area of Balabag is now economical to drill.

There is some hole where there were no mineralization at all and if I am correct this is where all infrastructures will be installed and built. Nobody would like to build that kind of infrastructure where there is the most gold. That would be silly.

Now, the results by themselves are telling me that they are ok and some areas are great. Unfortunately they will not and could not comment any further as they need a 43-101 to be included with any comments more than what was already said this morning on the press release.

One thing that strikes me is the 12 more holes since the cut –off date (June 30^th) and these are interesting. Why would you continue to drill unless there were in a very interesting area? Unfortunately TVI will not comment on these drill holes for legal reasons (and selective disclosures rules) but these seem interesting.

Now if they were to be in a higher range of grams per ton, I would not mind waiting 4-5 more weeks to get those drill holes included. Anyways, a 43-101 usually takes between 45 and 60 days to be produced.

But as far as I am concerned, their main objective of defining the 50,000 ounces to start up a bootstrap mine has been achieved. Now let’s go to the needed 43-101 report, start building the mine and we should see some gold going out of there somewhere at the end of Q4-2012. I mention Q4 because we never know what can happen and sometimes in the mining industry you get surprises. So instead of expecting large gold volume in Q3, I would imagine they will be under commissioning for the latest part of 2012 then the real thing will happen in 2013. (Remember zinc was a lot longer than expected even if they tried really hard to have it running at best possible % the first time. Mining is mining)

Without having all the facts in regard of the 43-101 it will be very difficult to establish for sure any economic data for that mine BUT I think that I could say that the price per ton to produce will hover around the 350-375$ per ton (again, we do not have the complete 43-101 and feasibility project) and they should be able to produce around 60,000 ounces per year (after commissioning) for a period that will vary between 6-8 years depending of gold price as the higher it is going to be even the lowest grade area will become economical and profitable. (Based upon original 43-101 and no added gold from the last drills)

But at 1600$ per ounce we are now talking about a project that will be over 500M$ IN PROFIT over the mine life is conditions stays at what they are.

Anybody that want to join the party is welcome !

ALERT TVI

Tvi has announce their drill results from Balabag.

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Pacific-Provides-Additional-Drill-Results-From-the-Balabag-Gold-Silver-Project1126024/default.aspx

More to come tonight

The weeks ahead

Get ready for a very chompy market until a deal is reached by the US government on debt ceiling.

I think they will wait until the last minute to announce a deal and anybody having some cash on hand will be able to get some real bargain near the end of the month.

I also expect the us dollar to be on the down side vs the Canadian $ so if some profit can be madein cad$ it could be an interesting idea to buy some US stock (if you believe that us will reach a last minute deal)

If that deal was not to be reached on august 2nd, get ready for a major index free fall and again good profit to be made on many large us corp especially in the banking sector.

As usual NEVER invest more money than you can afford to lose and always ALWAYS take some profit when conditions arise. Nobody has ever been in trouble for cashing profit!

UPDATE DRL

It will be very interesting to see how DRL performed during Q2 and i would not be surprised to see a great jump in earnings.

Those who bought when DRL were at 1,25$ are now facing a dilemna: sell now before earning releases or profit from a surprise in DRL results.

As usual it is always safe to cash in some profit but i think DRL is ready to hit a home run so be careful EVEN if share price drop a bit after the release because after all they already had a great run so far this year.

my rating   BUY   price target 12 months 6$

UPDATE TVI

Hope you saw TVI price climb from 0,07 to 0,095 in a small period of time.

Nice gains along the way. Now the question is will the trend continue?

I personnally think so but we still need to see major buying volume as share have increase by close to 40% with relatively low volume.

With all projects that are soon to come a reality, there is still a major share price increase possibility for TVI.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canda shares have been taking a beating in the last few months wondering where it is going.

At the end of Q1 2011, AC.B had 2.1B$ in cahs (or cash equivalent) meaning over 9$ per share. What is the share price now???

Sure the possibility of a strike is looming, the fuel price has been higher (but most probably it's impact is well over exagerated) but passenger seat mile is higher.

All together, i think AC.B is actually well over sold and fear has a lot to do with that.

If Ac.b was to test it's 1,61$ level and going under, get ready to pull the trigger and make some shopping at great bargain price.

I still maintain my 6$ 12 month value for this stock meaning it could give a 300% return from today's level.

As usual never invest more than what you can afford to lose.

ALERT TVI

Well today another 300K shares were bought by a director of TVI getting it close to the 900KM shares since may 27th. Even if comments were made at the beginning to the effect that is was small amount of money, we are now talking close to 72K$.


Shares were bought mostly by these 2 directors:

Wayne G. Thomson , B.Sc., Director

Mr. Thomson currently serves as a Director for Cenovus Energy Inc. and Orion Oil and Gas Corp. and is the Chairman and President of EnviroValve Inc. Previously, Mr. Thomson was President of Hadrian Energy Corp. and Gardiner Oil and Gas Limited, both public companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Prior to these appointments, Mr. Thomson held the role of President of Petrocorp Exploration and spent the previous six years at the Alberta Energy Company.

Mr Thompson has bought 400K ( close to 32K$) and as you can see he is greatly involved in oil and gas.

Aloysius B. Colayco , Director

Mr. Colayco is Managing Director of Argosy Partners, Inc., a private investment and advisory firm, and a Senior Partner of Argosy Advisors, Inc. He also serves as President for Level Up! Holdings, Country Chairman for Jardine Matheson, Philippines, Member of the JM Asia Pacific Regional Board, Chairman for Republic Cement (an affiliate of Lafarge), Chairman for Colliers Philippines, Member of the Advisory Board for JG Summit Holdings, Inc. and Senior Advisor for Asia Strategic Capital Fund and Asia Environmental Partners Fund.

As for Mr Colayco, he bought 420K shares for a value close to 33K$ and is involved in capital fund.

We should not forget also Rhonda Bennetto who bought 50K also.

This is a great volume, must mean something and it is worth mentioning especially because there are many blackout periods during which no insider can trade the shares..

As a personal opinion, this could just be the beginning and remember that those shares will probably not put back on the market until TVI flies and to me it has the same meaning as a company buy back shares.

UPDATE TVI

Since the end of may 2011, close to 600K shares were bought by TVI directors.

Most of the time this indicates that something is brewing on the positive side. Also please note that the last shipment was of 24% of copper being by itself a great new.

Zinc shipment will be coming in the near future and we should not forgets Balabag gold mine to receive the go ahead signal in a very near future probably well before end of Q3.

All together, these coming news should have the shares climb back at least to their previous level of 0,135 meaning a close to 100% profit in less than 3 months.

As usual, do not invest more than what you can afford to lose but the disconnect on TVI share price compare to TVI value is incredible and indicates a strong buy signal.

ALERT AC.B

Now at this price this is a bargain. Time to get back in.

ALERT DRL

Well, for those who followed my reccomendation about Doral, it is now time to cash in with over 80% profit.

Today high volume and great increase also means that we maybe in for something larger.

In any case, it is always very safe to cash in when profit this BIG present itself.

Cheers

UPDATE TVI

Tvi has just updated their website with a new look and a very interesting module: oil101.

It is worth stopping by to learn more about Alaska oil out there.

http://www.tvipacific.com/English/RLC/north-slope-map/default.aspx

ALERT MB

Share consolidation has been confirmed to take place before june 10th at the rate of 20 for 1.

This will create some waves and it could be a good time to cash in some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI did went down a lot since last december but still with a low volume. That selling was probably due to some shareholders that did not like the TGE deal.

BUT that selling seems to have loss some steam end of last week and the fact that TVI was able to generate a revenue with only 1 shipment is very good. That was a surprise as i would have thought their earnings to be in the (0,01) to (0,02) per share.

Now what is Q2, Q3 and Q4 should look likes: i would expect 2 or maybe 3 shipments in Q2, 2 in Q3 and 2 in Q4 for another 7 more shipments this year. Sure copper price has been falling but again it seems that China and Japan will need a lot more than expected and will make copper rise back to a 4,20$ level for the rest of the year. Combine that with the fact that TVI has now a zinc circuit that works, it will increase copper % to increase between 21-25% level increasing at the same time total shipment value. So let stay at the lower level of per shipment value of 12M$ (i think more of 13-14M$ per shipment) it means there is another 84M$ in revenues and a very close to 100M$ for this year when Q1 revenues are added. All together it should generate about 0,06-0,09 per share in profit. Do the maths: unless TVI share price hover 0,18 (remember that there is still 2.3 years left of mine life) it will be still undervalued. Now add up some ore discovery, some oil in Alaska and Philippines, Balabag to be confirmed as a go and Tamarok, there is no reason that TVI shares should not explosed to the roof.

Hard to put a value at this time but a junior mining company is valued at range that varies between 15 to 25 times profit. So it could means a share price moving from 0,90 cents when lower earnings and lower evaluation are taken into account and up to 2,25$ if we use upper valuation for net earnings and valuation.

This company risk/ reward ratio is incredible at a price really attractive and totally disconnected from real value.

Those who came on board last year were able to pocket a return of 100% and even those who bought at the high price of 0,135 are still well positionned for a nice profit if any of the actual projects is conclusive: not all of them only one is needed. (Imagine Balabag at 500,000 ounces of gold on a 8 years period could generate about 800$ gross profit PER OUNCE if we think cost per ounce would be about 600$. (Usually it is about 400$). So 800$ profit per ounce* 500,000 ounces = 400M$ / 8 years or  50M$ profit per year. Each 100$ in producing cost under the figure of 600$ per ounce or 100$ in gold price over the 1400$ used would also adds another 6,5M$ per year in profit .

If TVI was to strike all of them with success, it could create some very wealthy people very rapidly. You can own a piece of this company for 0,07...i must be dreaming.

The real question is: actually TVI is facing one major concern and it is that Canatuan mine life is 2,3 years. It means that within the next 27 months they will have to have IN PRODUCTION another mine or added some more ore from Canatuan area to increase total mine life. Can they do it???

For some there is a doubt but when you look at TVI results carefully you will find out what they have accomplished in the last 6 months. Now project that over a 27 months periods and there is no doubt they will accomplish what they need to increase mine life to more interesting numbers from 7 to 10 years.

Sure TGE deal was not accepted from shareholders but now that they have those exploration wells in Alaska, Philippines and Niger (where costs to drill are now 0) what would happen if they were to strike enough oil for production as the question is no longer if they will find oil: THEY HAVE in Philippines and Alaska. The question is how much and is this going to be profitable.

Imagine for a second that the answer is YES to only one of those wells: what would happen to the share price? I could even think that the ones who were totally against their CEO for that deal would be the same to say he was a genius...

Time will tell but actually it is a great play as long as you do not invest more than you can lose. 

ALERT DRL BPOP

Doral Financial has been on the move lately and will have to be carefully watched on monday to see if it is substainable or if the raise will continue. I think a new base will be established around 1,75$ to give enough time to the 200 day average to raise at actual level.

That DRL story is not over and any great results in the next quarter could easily add up a 1 or 2$ to these shares.

At the same time we can see BPOP having problems to get out of the trading range (2,90$ to 3,25$) but remember that BPOP have acquired last year major assets from other failure bank and great increase should be seen somewhere in Q3 or Q4. This is another great opportunity to accumulate.

UPDATE MB

With the Q1 results published, it is clear that Mega Brand is continuing it's recovery at a good pace.

The last days, stock has been oversold as if we compare Q1 2011 to Q1 2010, their profit last year was coming from a 1 tiime event and that being removed, it leasves MB with another great increase. I would eaisly think that MB will complete Q2 with a nil profit per share but Q3 and Q4 will be excellent.

Good time to accumulate

WELCOME UUU

Uranium One (UUU  TSX)  has been added today may 10th on my top pick list.

Looking at the crisis in Japan it could have been easy to think that uranium would be banned for a long period of time but i do not think so anymore.

UUU has been hammered greatly and potential for a 50-60% gain is now right in front of us.

In price = 3,90$ to 4,10$ (if it goes under 3,90$ wait a bit longer)

Profit taking from 5,29$ and up

Welcome UUU

UPDATE PXLW

PXLW have been delisted form my top picks due to their incapacity to increase sales to a level that would generate some profit at this time.

UPDATE TVI

TVI announced today that SIennalynn was not economical enough to continue into that direction.

They also mentionned that they have many other ares identified for further drilling to expand Cnatuan mine life.

I think that it is only a question of time before they 'hit' the right target and enhance the mine life by many years. DO not forget Tamarok and Balabag.

Only these 2 would be more than enough to add many many years of great profitability.

Is it time to sell: no still time to accumulate.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canada has just released a lower than last year loss for Q1 getting closer to a profitable quarter.

Good increase for Q1 and very good outlook for rest of the year.

Check out reaction this morning and be patient as most of the time there is a sell on the news and maybe possible to get some more at about 2,20 to 2,24 AFTER the opening market crazyness.

If you bought in early may last year at about 1,75 this may not be the right time to cash in some profit as i think AC.B is new heading back toward the 3$ mark. 2,95$ would be a good target for profit taking. 

ALERT LVS

LVS did not impressed today with it's results but when you look at it they were not too bad either.

So expect high volatility tomorrow and if volume gets over 50M sahres traded and price below 38$, then it will be an oversold condition and some money could be made there.