ALERT TVI

TVI has just completed his 2nd zinc shipment of the year valued 4,7M$.

So TVI is now getting very close to a 100M$ revenues company and we should hear soon about Balabag feasability study.

Remember that the project is now safe from any ban on open pit mining as per provincial legislation.

I think 2012 will rock this one up

ALERT LVS

LVS has been advised that the investigation has been concluded and that no further action will be taken against the Company at this time in Honk Kong. Still more investigations are underway but this is great news.

Complete story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577106401261860634.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

ALERT CTL

Based upon today's new in regard of interest payment being deferred, it is preferable to hold on to your position.

If you bought recently, your average cost would be in the 0,05 to 0,06 and the possibilities are still very high for a default or a bankruptcy procedures. Therefore, i would use any rally to sell some shares to try to obtain a close to 0 average cost (the free shares concept) and hold to them until final resolution.

But with the actual pulp and paper problems all around the globe, the chances that CTL would get some kind of re-financement without wiping all actual shareholder value, is very very low.

CTL is now a highly risky speculative buy and for the coming weeks it will be into the hands of speculators.

You can play the game but be extremely cautious. Odds are not in CTL favor (or shareholder favor).

As of today, Canadian dollar has lost about 10% sinc July, demand has been stabilizing somewhat and this quarter should have been at least break-even. So what happen? They had about 18M$ in cash and close to 108M$ in credit line available. What else do they know that we do not at this time? How went the first 2 months of Q4 ? Are they really that bad? What is 2012 outlook ?


I will ask and try to obtain answers.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.

ALERT UWN

UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos ) will published their 2nd quarter for 2012 next week on the 15th and this could really well be the beginning of a quarterly net profit era.

Based upons results from Q1 2012 and last year Q2 results, the following items should reflects improvement

- interest expenses should have decreased based upon new loan agreement with Wells Fargo
- Total revenues should have increase because of the first complete quarter of Red Dragon

So, even if gross revenues from other properties were to stay flat compare to last year, overall revenues should have increased by a 5-10%, interest expenses should have decrease significantly and adjusted EBITDA should be in the 800K$ to 950K$ range and net profit in the 0,01 to 0,02 cent per share .

Then if you calculate the actual net value per share, even by removing completely the good will value, UWN is still valued at 14M$ with on hand cash (including restricted cash) over 7,5M$ for a 1,03$ value per share and a 2,26$ value per share if we include the good will value.

I still believe that we could be in for results that would beat my expectations and therefore providing a good share value increase. Do not forget also that the slot machine run deal that will close in Q3 2012 will add great profit and if Washington was to allow slot machines in their state in a near future, UWN could be set to sky rocket rapidly as they would be well positionned to be licensed for a 1250 machine and a 85M$ in revenues increase (based upon their last presentation). Now imagine how the net profit would look like ! UWN share value increase that would arise from a decision like this one could be similar to the one experimented by MPEL due to revenues increase in Macau.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.  

ALERT TVI

Very good news this morning in regard of Balabag project as it will not suffer from the same problems as Canatuan with tentative bans from local due to a provincial resolution that Bayog cannot prohibit legitimate mining firms to excercise their rights over mining sites.

This is most probably the best new to hit TVI since many months.

To get the complete story, here is the link:

http://interaksyon.tv/article/19073/zambo-del-sur-govt-invalidates-order-banning-open-pit-mining-in-bayog-town

Also all other very interesting news are available on TVI official web site under ORDINANCE.

Still do not forget to visit my friends at:

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT INT

Some time ago  CVE:INT was added into my top speculative move and today, INT will be added to my top pick list for 2012.

The reasonning behind that is the fact that their product (namely Ortsbo) has had an customer based increase absolutely phenomenal and that the management team is now focused to provide a complete solution in the entertainment sector.

With all the moves that were done recently, it would be very surprising that revenues would not follow.

If INT was to achieve an EPS of only 0,01 or 0,02, with the actual evaluation of social medias like Facebook being at about 50 times earning, it is easy to believe that INT would be easily north of 1,75 rapidly.

Naturally at this stage of their growth it is still largely speculative but customer interest is there, investor interest is there and product/value is there.

If management continue to do what they had in the past, well there is absolutely no reason why INT could not be a 400% winner in 2012.

This is why INT is now one of my pick for 2012.

Naturally do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always always take some profit when price indicate that.

TVI UPDATE

TVI completed another shipment today for another 12M$ in revenues. Great Job.

Now here is my update in regards of Q3 2011

Q3 results were surprising to say the least.

I was very surprise by the sudden decrease in production cost. From 1,65$ to 1,33$ was a major improvement (roughly 20%)  in 1 quarter.

Naturally that improvement trend is not sustainable and I think that cost will remain at about 1,33$ for the next 1 or 2 quarters .

The great cost improvement was essentially the major factor allowing TVI to achieve 3M$ in profit during Q3. If they can ship copper and zinc on time, TVI could again show a good profit in Q4  (before oil asset write off).

But the biggest factor that strokes me was the fact that mine life was decreased only by .1 during the quarter due to the blend with mineral that was not include in the original ore reserves. If that trend was to continue, it could easily expand Canatuan mine life by a couple of years and this would be fantastic.

Look also at gold and silver produced as the grades were quite high and the best of the year.

The overall shareholder equity has increased by almost 10M$  compared to December 2010 and accumulated deficit is now standing at only 1,4M$. This is a very good indicator of TVI’s financial health at this moment.

In regard to the cash on hand, 23M$ is a huge pile of money and even if all low interest short term loans were to be repaid, they would still be left with money in the bank.

What it is telling me is that the cash flow generated by Canatuan is enough to finance Balabag bootstrap without additional long term loan at high cost.

We should not also underestimate Malasok and SE Malasok as they could encounter significant reserves there also. It would be very surprising that Canatuan would be the only part of the area having enough mineral to be a profitable mining site.

TVI also mentioned that they were still pursuing other possibilities and they now have the money needed to go ahead with some other major mining companies out there. It would be purely speculative at this time to name them or try to identify the projects but looking at all the different and recent press releases there is at least one interesting project where TVI could be associated with.

In regard to Canatuan, we all know what happen with the provincial government and that a ban was established to take effect in November 2012. TVI has mentioned that they will take all possible legal actions against that illegal ban and I think they have a good chance to win their case and if otherwise, I think that Balabag will already be in operation at that time avoiding some months without any revenues.

Also interesting to note is that TVI is for the second quarter in a row a 100M$ company and this is absolutely not reflecting in the share value. Again major price disconnect between share value and share price and still a lack of interest from the buyers as volume is unbelievably low.

TVI sold Alaska right after the quarter for a price almost double of what was paid for Alaska, Niger and Philippine properties when you include all the credits they also received. Naturally some write off will have to take place but it is not affecting cash position being only book value for properties that have been sold. The high interest loan was also repaid in full. (LIM loan)

Now, for Balabag, it is clear that the 43-101 is late and has been pushed many times. But is this something that they absolutely needs? For the investors’ confidence it is a yes but because they do not need any financing to develop Balabag, it is not the most important thing at this time. Based upon remarks and financial statements page 20,  (item 15) it is clearly stated that Balabag expenses have started to be capitalized. I think the message right there is very clear: Balabag will be a mine!

So what are the different scenarios for 2012:

BEST: Ban on Canatuan is lifted and TVI is able to increase mine life to about 3 years with ore not coming from indicated resources. Canatuan should be able to generate another 10M$ in net profit per year and a 100M$ gross revenues. Then Balabag should be in production near year-end 2012 adding up a 5-10M$ in revenue (maybe a 5000 ounces in Q4 2012).

WORST: The ban is not lifted and Canatuan must cease operations end of 2012. TVI will still had pocketed 7-8M$ in net profit and 80M$ in gross revenues. Q4 would be a bit difficult with only 1 shipment from Canatuan before closure and minor revenues from Balabag.

If we add up all the other possibilities from JV, new prospects, Tamarok, Malasok etc, it would be very surprising that TVI would not be able to succeed in 2012. It is third world mining and we never know exactly what could happen (or we would be all very rich persons) but I still think that TVI has a great chance of success over there as they already prove with their Canatuan operations and no matter what will happen in Canatuan, TVI will still be a profitable mining company and results from Balabag by itself will be a lot more valuable than the actual value affixed to TVI. Producing gold in the Philippines has nothing to do with operations in North America. Cost to produce gold is very low and ore reserves are there. I do not see any reason for TVI to fail at that project. Remember that TVI has a lot of experience in producing gold (referring to Gossan mines from 2004-2008)

In conclusion I think that TVI is still a good buy, Q4 could be another solid quarter (before 1 time event) and future is bright.

PS: DO not forget to visit my friends at :

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT CTL

CTL (tsx) has been added to my top pick speculative plays.

They have announced today a major 200M$ loss BUT at the same time their quarter is a lot better than Q2. With a bit of luck they could have ended up break even.

Q4 is normally a strong quarter for CTL and i am now wondering what was the real reason to write off their mill COMPLETELY on Q3 instead of Q4??? (as normally companies would do to clera the numbers for the coming year)

Their results altough not totally impressive, were in the right direction and unless they totally miss their Q4, they should come out with a small profit in Q4.

This is their last presentation and it is absolutely interesting (in regards of the facts)

http://www.catalystpaper.com/sites/default/files/2011-11-14earnings-prest_0.pdf

Time will tell but at this level (0,075) i am a buyer. Risk is very low and possibilities are great: take over, profit margin increases etc. You can probably mention 10 more.

I was a buyer at 0,25, was still at 0,15 and now at this bargain price i will definitely reduce my average cost a lot.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing

UPDATE DRL

What a huge miss did DRL posted for it's Q3. Totally unpredictable.

Hope the down slope will stop rapidly. Already closing near the 1$ limit. If it goes under, it could signal time to sell some to limit losses and get some liquidity to buy it back cheaper.

I still think that DRL will be part of a deal to restraint the number of banks in Puerto Rico.

ALERT DRL

What a bad quarter and a huge miss for DRL. Market reaction was correct given the loss at -,023 and estimates were -0,01.

Will have to minotor closely and take decision if it goes under 1$. If it does, it would be time to unload slowly but surely. It could even be a good time to sell on a positive dip.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just announced that they have sold their Alaska oil assets for 16M$. When you add about 5M$ received in credit recently it means that they have received close to 2 times what was paid for 1 year ago. Not a bad deal overall.

It also means a couple of things: Philippines oil assets are now free and if anybody was wondering how they would finance Balabag, well now we may have the answer.

Also very important to note is that 6M$ loan will be repaid totally.

That is a very prudent move considering the fact they would have had to invest more money with the partners to finally know what was lying under North Tan and I think that any $ that would have been spent out there would not have been the best move especially when you need money to finally build and start the Balabag project.

Very interesting also is the note in regard to a enhance join venture or an acquisition. Is there anything else in the work?

Q3 MD&A will be very very interesting to analyse !

UPDATE UWN

UWN will issue more shares and dilute somewhat actual shareholders but keeping in mind that this is to pay for a new acquisition, it does make sense as dilution factor should be less than profit upgrade.

It has been way oversold and if you were awaiting a dip to get into UWN, it could very well be the time.

Welcom WPX to my top picks

With announcement of a NI43-101 indicating a fantastic potash reserve, the is no doubt that WPX will be a winner this year or early 2012. (see their press release)

They have already mentionned that they hope to advise about a strategic partnership before year end and i think that in conjonction with that latest release, it will increase a lot their share value.

Still a bit speculative but great return in sight.

Estimated value before year end 2011: 2,25$ and 6$ by year end 2012 if merger (or JV) happen early 2012.

Welcome aboard WPX.

ALERT BPOP

Afeter an incredible volume of 54M shares traded on friday (average is around 10M shares) today has been somewhat difficult BUT it seems that finally some have read properly the last quarter results: THEY MADE NICE PROFIT.

Sure was less than last quarter but when you remove 1 time item and add special commercial loss provision of this quarter, well BPOP is in very very good shape.

With consolidation that will be coming in Puerto RIco (there are too many banks) this will only help BPOP.

ALERT UWN

Nevada Gold and Casino

UWN has just signed an agreement to purchase a slot route operator in Deadwood for 5,2M$.

When this transaction will be completed, UWN will ad about 1,25M$ in EBITDA (within 3-4 months).

This is a large EBITDA increase and i find it interesting that they are now into the slot machine business just a couple of weeks before Washington starts wondering about the possibility of legalizing these in the state where UWN does have many small casinos. Hummmmmmmmmmm.

To follow closely !

UWN UPDATE

Did you notice?

UWN has been slowly but surely climbing back to the 2$ mark on steady volume. For sure it is far from the 100K volume they saw some weeks ago but based upon some technical data relative movement is showing improvement in the number of buyers and relative strength is getting better.

Keep in mind that with a low number of shares available, this one could fly rapidly.

Also please remember that on Oct 10th Wells Fargo agreed to refinance 11M$ of their existing debt and extend the remaining 4M$ until 2015. The loan (that will mature in 2014) will retire outstanding debt that were to mature in 2012 and 2013 giving a very interesting position to UWN to use their next 3 years cash flow to do some more acquisitions and increase substantially their annual gross revenues. It is very very interesting to note that UWN was able to capture Wells Fargo attention and based upon the fact that Wells Fargo is one of the biggest USA bank i would not be surprised to see their analysts pick up UWN story and that being the case, i would prefer to be an actual investor instead of trying to catch them up later on the rise. If UWN would have been researching a great business partner, they may have just found them. Wells Fargo has been long time recognized as a bank that understand the small to mid-cap size business needs and have been involved around the USA for many of these small loans. Wells Fargo is one of the most well managed bank (they even refused TARP but were force to accept it) and especially now where capital available is still hard to find, I am convinced that they did their home works before approving a loan to UWN. By itself it is a confirmation of the very good financial situation of UWN

This change by itself should give UWN some fuel to achieve my share price expectation of 4$ within the end of the year. I know it sounds very aggressive but a great result for Q2 2012 could be enough and as mentioned in my last evaluation I expect that UWN could generate 16M$ in gross revenues, 1M$ in EBITDA and a 0,03 to 0,05 per share net profit. Anything over would be the catalyst to 4$ share price rapidly and with the next release due somewhere in mid-December, Christmas party could be earlier this year!!!

They have a great business model (almost unique) and management seems to be very passionate about their plan.

I remember that some time ago (in 2010) I mentioned a casino pick that was very interesting in march 2010 (MPEL) and it was trading at about 4,38$ at that time. MPEL achieved 16$ earlier this year for a close to 400% run. I was really surprised when Jim Cramer (CNBC) mentioned that he did not saw MPEL coming. So get ready for a second hit in the casino business. UWN will rock.

So for these reasons, UWN has now been upgraded to #4 for top pick for the remainder of 2011 and Q2 report will speaks for my 2012 year picks dues around January 15^th 2012.

(Still thinks they are missing a letter in their ticker name: should be UWiN)

UPDATE TVI

TVI reported today that they have completed shipment #24 for gross revenues close to 15M$ and over 1,25K tons of copper concentrate remaining in inventory. Also worth noting is the total zinc already produced that should be shipped end of december. Actually this is money in the bank.

The value of the shipment is very high when you look at copper price today against 6 weeks ago.

If cost remained under control (even a bit lower) we could have some positive surprise when Q3 results are published.

I had estimated about 1M$ in loss but could be a little less.

Interestingly, even when copper price have dropped by more than 25% recently, the share price (even if actually very low and disconnected against share value) the share price did remain pretty stable.

It would not need a lot to move higher as resistance over 0,06 is really low.

UWN the reason behind this new top pick

When small is beautiful: That could be the story of Nevada Gold & Casino Inc.

When I indicated that this corporation was under my radar last year (stock was trading at 1,07$ at that time) I was far from believing that suddenly with some great acquisitions, that company could double its share price and that I would still believe that it was only the beginning. Think about that: market crash, unemployment in the 9%, no economic growth and your company double its market cap??? You definitely must have done something right and here is what I found and by the way based upon recent market activity, I am no longer the only one that is starting to be interested into that success story.

Naturally we should not compare UWN to some largest company like LVS, MPEL or WYNN as they are clearly not competitors. But it is very important to note that the entire entertainment sector has been very profitable lately especially in gambling outside the United States and this is where UWN does make a difference. They have been able to create their own niche in a very difficult market. So, what is this all about?

UWN owns and manage small scale casinos almost directed toward the clientele of Mr. everybody that does some gambling for fun and in an environment very friendly where customer seems to be the number one priority. One point that I should mention is the fact that all employees from their newest acquisition (Red Dragon) went to a customer service training seminar almost immediately after they finalized the acquisition.

It would also be very difficult to compare with any other company as there is not too many that are operating that kind of mini casinos and operating more than 1.

So, what should we expect form UWN ?

They have the intention to acquire some casinos in Nevada and it could add some 3-4M$ for each unit they buy BUT it could add to the total debt already in the 15M$ range.

And debt is one problem to come with some being due in 2012 but their latest association with Wells Fargo to find a refinancing solution could ease that one out if negotiations are successful. If they were to find a new loan agreement covering all the debt and at better terms and at somewhat a bit lower interest rate, this could give them a break and allow them to breathe easier.

On the other hand they have the right to issue up to 20M$ in stock and this would cover more than the total debt load leaving even some more money for other acquisitions.

If UWN consolidate their actual assets and integrate them rapidly they should be able to generate a lot more net revenues and be ready for some more expansion AS LONG as they do not have to overspend in company management. At this point, it would not be wise to get that expansion in areas that they do not operate actually due to overhead expenses.

So here are my expectations for Q2 2012 if everything goes as expected:

-          Net EBITDA of 1M$ (increase provided by increase in earnings, expenses staying at current level in % , lower management and legal expenses)

-          Earnings of 16M (due to the revenue increase from Reg Dragon)

-          Net revenue per share of 0,03 to 0,05

They will definitely continue to be very aggressive in their development and as long as they stay within their ‘know how’ range there are no doubt that UWN will be a great winner in 2012. Markets will stabilize, unemployment will get better and consumer confidence will be brighter. All the needed elements will be in place to send UWN on track for a record year.

For these reasons, UWN is now a top pick for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012. Price expectations are within 2,90$ and 3,70$ before December 31^st 2012 for a decent 50% to 100$ return.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing.

Week ahead

It will be very interesting to watch the first couple of trading days. last week was a great one were even unemployment was unable to derail the bull but i would not be very surprise to see at least one day where market will try to test who will win: bears...bulls....

TVI should give some update on the expected shipment. I think we should know by wednesday.

Regional banks could continue to rise modestly but surely this week (BPOP, FBP, DRL) and i still think there are some rumors going on in the Puerto Rico banking sector where 2 should merged: DRL and FBP. Who will buy the other ??? Either case we win

LVS, MPEL and our newly member UWN should continue to rise this week. Keep a clsoe eye on UWN. After releasing a very good quarter last week, some volatility was seen on thursday and friday when some profit taking happened. Expect a rebound.

BZH could be helped by the numbers to be released this week and at this time it is pretty undervalued.

Lot more action to come so stay tune.

WPX has been added to UNDER THE RADAR picks

WPX:TO could be a great addition if it's share price continues to hold in the 1,15$ to 1,30$ range. Otherwise, if price continues to decline or if insider selling continues, i would wait until 0,75 to get into that company in a very agressive way.

At this time, it is not clear of the profitability of their project and until the feasability plan is completed it will be difficult to assess the real value of this one.

For the moment it is more of a speculative but based upon the 43-101 it could be profitable and there could be a lot of volatility between now and the feasibility project that should be released mid 2013.

As usual any interesting event should move WPX from under the radar to a top pick but the conditions needed are the following (as for any other stocks UNDER THE RADAR):

- fluctuation of share price minimal to avoid trying to catch a falling knife
- a sudden price increase at this stage would be considered speculative move and wihout a press release it will not be considered to be moved to TOP PICKS
- Regular press releases concerning updates on land, feasibility advances could trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Price stabilization and lack of volatility could also trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Insiders buying in large quantity would move WPS to TOP PICK after prices is stabilized
- Volume increase (buying pressure) for some weeks could move it to TOP PICK
- Any other VERY positive news could also move WPX to top pick

As usual, never invest more money than you can afford to lose and ALWAYS do your own due diligence before investing in any company.