RAD Expect higher volatility

We are getting very close to a decision about the merger with WBA and because of the fact that there is still some possibilities that this deal would be rejected, i expect a lot more volatility between 6,50$ and 7,35$.

As of now no decision has been made and based upon declarations from RAD, i expect the decision to be positive and the go ahead given with conditions to sell some assets along the way.

This could simply move further the merger date to early 2017 allowing time for them to get rid of the assets needed to allow the transaction.

If that was to happen, expect a higher range of trading and lot more profit to be made.

But be careful as price could get down a lot more and closer to 4$ if the delay is longer than a quarter.

Have fun

Oil is on fire.........

I know bad choice of words but could not resist....

Some time ago i insisted on the fact that oil would recover mainly because major producers could not stay in business with oil under 40$.

We are now on the verge of a major agreement between Russia and the Saudies.

My guess is that balance oil price is around 60$ and that oil will get there before end of this year.

But in any case, during that tim eit will be interesting to play the swings from oil on large Canadian companies like MEG.TO and SU.TO

I still own large number of shares in MEG and i sold out SU mainly because MEG is a lot more volatile and easy to play.

Have fun

Will Rite Aid merger get finally the go ahead signal?

Based upon rumors and smoke signals it would seem that it wont get approved.

But any problem are to be reported and as mentioned by management on their last results report:

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If that merger was to be in jeopardy, it would be a material event to be disclosed to avoid being misleading and opening the door to lawsuit.

Fo sure the trade commission will force the selling of many many of their stores to avoid any business advantage and it is also certain that CVS will do its best to get the deal rejected.

As far as i am concern, this deal will get approved mid September with conditions that Rite Aid And Walgreen will accept.

During this time expect higher volatility based upon rumors and ear say.

So invests with that in mind.

Have fun

Construction sector is red HOT

As previously mentioned, the construction sector in the US is hot and the last data from this morning should reflect on the construction sector companies like BZH, KBH and my preferred one HOV.

HOV is my preferred as this is the underdog that has been undervalued for years mainly because of its debt but close to 2B$ in tax credit is most of the time forgot.

I am sticking on it anc this is the time to get back in with a sell price at 2,15$ within the next month..

Have fun 

Will that rally last ?

Expect some good gains to come and watch out for a correction.

I will start selling today and pocket large part of my recent paper profits and then wait for an interesting correction.

Dow at 18k has never last that long and i do think it is overbought at this time as earning season approaches and i do not expect major profit increase.

Naturally i could be wrong but i prefer to pocket some profit and then lose some than the opposite.

There will be some bargain hunting coming down our way within a couple of weeks.

Stay tuned!!!

Up Down or nowhere

We will start experimenting  weird trading pattern today.

Gold to retreat, oil to do the same and stocks going nowhere.

There are many uncertainties in regard or the UK leaving the EU as it would seem that all those in charge of this exit are now leaving the boat stating <
How could they say that. The vote has been casted but as far as i know UK is still part of the EU and this will continue to rock markets.

As for oil and gold, this will continue to be paradise for the traders giving the fact that market has no direction to go.

Also VERY important is the fact that DOW is now very close to the 18K mark and could face a small retreat.

So be careful and remember that for this moment cash is king.

Have fun

Tesla: is the party over???

What a strange move from Tesla. It bought what????? SOLAR ????

When you invest in a car company you expect that company to design build and sell cars.

Not exactly what's behind it latest move.

Could i say that investors will not agree and get out?

Based upon early trading this is exactly what is happening and i am not surprised.

So for the moment being stay out of there. Party is over.

Be careful

With Britain vote coming up rapidly expect highly volatile market.

Expect major ups and down in regard of oil and gold.

Get ready for any occasion as during the following days, cash will be king to grab any short term opportunities.

No matter what, i would not be fully investing come the vote results. I still expect markets to react negatively either side of the vote but naturally downsize will be larger if YES win than the opposite.

Have fun

What to expect next week

Well, BREXIT will definitely be the one thing everybody will talk about.

Will Britain leave or not??? That is the question.

Now, based upon that nightmare, Gold will definitely be a momentum play early this week but even if actual scores would lead you to think Britain will exit, my guess is that this will not happen.

IF that does not happen, gold will get back to actual value and even a bit lower and stocks will NOT get a lot higher. Stocks have already taken into account the possibility and it could be more of a buy the rumor and then sell the news.

IF that does happen, stock will decline massively for 1 or 2 days then will recover.

So my play is early Monday buy gold and play on uncertainty only to sell either at 10% gain in a couple of days or late Wednesday.

I will also make sure i have plenty of cash ready just in case this vote is a yes and then take the opportunity to do some bottom fishing on stocks like DAN, LVS and MPEL (highly volatile in those circonstances)

So get ready for a week full of interesting happenings.

Have fun

Will Suncor continue to shop around for great deals?

It would seems so based upon their latest announcement in regard of a 2,9B$ shares bought deal.

By the way it is close to the biggest bought deal in Canada if not the biggest.

What does that mean?

Well that mean any corporation making profit in Canada oil sands sector valued at about that price could become a target to a hostile take over.

My guess: MEG energy   (MEG.TO)

Profitable with a surprise quarter and valued at about 2B$.

Also very interesting is their production price per barrel.

Have fun and have a look into their last quarter release. It could be worthy......

HOV Have we seen the bottom

I think so.

1,65$ to 1,69$ range seems appropriate at this time.

HOV has made promises that it will have now to deliver in regard of earnings. It should generate enough to cover this year to date losses and if accurate i can expect a 2,25$ to 2,45 range during the 3rd quarter.

The question now is: will it deliver?

HOV not really good last quarter But is this that bad?

Well, nice way to miss a prediction.... Instead of a large profit HOV posted a small loss and stock plunged like a rock.

It did however recoup some of the losses today and tomorrow will indicate the real trust investors have toward HOV.

Expect another roller coaster day but there is light based upon their overall results that were in fact not bad at all.

ALERT HOV

On Thursday morning HOV will announce their results and it will be a catalyst either side.

IF HOV was able to generate a profit around 10 cents for the last quarter, expect a positive ride.

If their profit was over 20 cents, well get ready as it will hit the roof.

If no profit, expect 1,40$ or less.

Drum roll please:


I EXPECT between 20 and 30 cents profit and a major share price increase and this is based upon all contributing factors in the USA: low unemployment, higher new home sales and higher price.

I suspect that this trend has started many months ago and that it will reflect on their last quarter.

I also expect a great increase on their backlog and a large increase of that backlog value based on the same reasons.

Will i be right (again)

We shall see by Thursday lunch time.......

Contruction sector is on fire

Based upon today's US report of the construction sector, i would say that my first call about it was correct.

HOV and KBH will be the next one to profit.

HOV already made some good gains from 1,54 late last week to the 1,74 of today.

I still expect HOV to get well over 2$ if results are simply correct but could rally to a new 52 weeks high if results goes ahead of analyst consensus.

I took some profit off the table today but will take a wait and see approach until mid next wee.

Have fun

This coming week

This will be a very very interesting week on many fronts.

Oil: Watch for SUNCOR (SU.TSX) as they will be restarting soon the production and oil has stabilized around 50$ a barrel.

HOV is within 10 days of reporting their last quarter results. What will they be?

Expect highly volatile sessions coming for the next 10 days for the reason that if results were to be over expectations shares could rapidly climb over 2,25$ otherwise they could fall near 1,25$.

Have fun.

Air Canada Normal course issuer bid

Very interesting as Air Canada has renewed their right to repurchase company shares until 2017 for close to 3M of those shares (10% of the total float)

The impact on share price combined with actual results makes me think there is a very good upside for their share price.

So after selling most of those around 9,75 and buying back many at 9,30 and around, i will be accelerating the purchase of those shares as long as the price is under 9,60$

Have fun

June interest hike

Finally, it will eliminate the incertitude about where and when......

Those invested in US$ saw a devise gain today and the trend should continue for a couple of days.

As for oil, Suncor has evacuated staff from their plant BUT i still believe it will be for shorter period than previously announced.

Actual share price indicates a good time to get back in.

As for construction sector, interest hike will not change anything on the next earnings as it was for period ending march.

It sill then be interesting to listen closely to what they have to say in regard of Q3 as Q2 is already well advance.

Have fun

Alert Apple

Apple will surely rise today after Warren Buffet news about his stake in Apple.

BUT be careful, this is a temporary patch on the share price because the reality check is not Warren Buffet BUT the capacity from Apple to create a new revolution and not only another evolution.

BE CAREFUL......

Alert on Air Canada

Expect a rebound on Air Canada shares early this week.

Actual valuation simply does not make any sense.

Get ready

Alert on Canadian Oil Producers

Expect a return to normal earlier than originally thought

Expect SUNCOR (SUN) to restart production within 10 days or earlier.

Time to get back in