TVI What's going on

Very interesting company.

They never did over 0,40 in the past but that could change easily. (they hit 0,39 in 2004)

To avoid going bankrupt they had financed their company on high interest loand and even loadns from company officers and gave lots of warrant at an averaging price of 0,016.

Their total shares outsanding fully diluted is over 500M explaining in part their difficulties to move higher. But many who have exercised their warrants must have already taken their profit as i saw many huge stock blocks going on sale recently.

Other problem is that their finances were so bad, they are reporting their results with the mention 'Going concern' forcing them to under evaluate their company value. (Please read quarter reports)

They also settled a court action by stock owners between 2006-2007.

They still have a cumulated deficit of 32M and until april of this year their future was in jeopardy. But they stopped the mine commisionning and started shipping their first 6M$ copper concentrate.

Their financing obtained in February 2009 also is of concern with a 24% annual interest rate. Do not forget it was at the peek of credit freeze.

NOW : THE POSITIVE SIDE

They are shipping copper concentrate and copper price went from 1,77 to 2,94 (today london price)

They were shipping every 6 weeks. Now they are shipping every 4 weeks. (1/3 increase)

Their cost per ton is diminishing rapidly NOW 0,58 agaisnt 0,78 /Cu lb eq

Tons of ore processed per day increase from 90 to 104 Tons per quarter (11% increase)

Copper recovery increased from 61% to 87% (almost 40% increase in processes)

Still unclear as to what is happening to gold and silver recovered during process.

MY FORECAST:

1) Copper will still rise. I expect another 25% during 2010 (3,75$ per pound)
2) Shipments will continue on schedule for a total of 75,000 DMT in 2010
3) They will refinance their debt to a much reasonnable level (9-12%)
4) They will generate enough cash flow to eliminate a good chunk of their debt
5) They will expand their mines again in 2010 using cash flow NOT new stock
6) I expect annual sales of 120M$ in 2010
7) I expect net income per share of 0,14 or better in 2010
8) Share price of 0,42 during 2010 based upon a very very low 3 X net earnings. This is very low but with so many warrants and 500M shares it will take some time before hitting the 1$ mark.

To me this is a BUY but you must understand that it is a penny stock on which MAYBE we need to know more. Normally MARKET KNOWS IT ALL and that stock still being in the 0,06-0,07 indicates that their maybe still a problem or MAYBE nobody knows yet about this company...

In any case, could be a very good play if you have some money that you could loose without loosing sleep.

Please do your own due diligence on this one and never invest more that cou can afford to loose.

Have a great evening