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mardi 5 juin 2012

UPDATE on INT

WOW: INT stock have beend hammered recently and seems to move higher on news release then go down right after on a very very low volume. Any reason?

Short term traders. It has become very obvious that actual shareholders do not want to get rid of their shares until Ortsbo is released and yet to become shareholders wants to wait for more details especially how INT will drive revenues.

Even if total revenues are not the most important factor at this stage, it is very interesting to note that they still have increased dramatically year over year and at a faster pace than user numbers.

It is very important i think to understand that ORTSBO is a utility plug-in and that it's revenues may not come from the usuals channels like pay per click. WHY? Do you believe that users would be interested in seeing a pop up during their chat translation? I do not think so.

What i see as a bright future on the revenue side would be the licensing fees or usage fees. We all know that mobile communication is not generating revenue per user as high as regular office computing and therefore must be adressed before any major release to avoid year over year revenue decrease because of increasing mobile usage. That would be a non-sense.

So what is the solution: license it. The product is great, in over 50 languages and could easily expand to well over that number pretty rapidly. If they have the matrix working from french to english and japanese i do not expect any problem using the same matrix to increase the number of potential languages even if increasing that number to 80 may not be as cost efficient because the extra languages may not be the one that are used the most.

The best improvement should be the adaptation of the translator to different meaning based upon interpretation and this is a challenge that nobody that i know has been able to achieve.

Licensing the aoo to manufacturers could be interesting. If you go around your home devices at this moment, most of them have 3-8 languages pre-programmed for a friendly usage. So it means to me that anytime the same product is developped for another country the language chipset has to be reprogrammed again and again. How many chipset programming do they need? 10, 15 more ???

It would be easily replace with only 1 and a lot of savings right there.

Think about the new rule to force close captionned for tv programming .

How many languages are offered on a dvd? With all the new technology allowing firmware updates from internet, a BluRay reader could easily download the app and add 53 langauges to any movie already produced.

The applications are endless.

One last point, with the coming Ortsbo spin off, INT MUST make it a success for another reason than the obvious one: When it is done INT will have created a 300-500M$ company in less than 2-3 years from the early stage.

This fact alone will attract new opportunities and MANY more startup companies that will trust the capacity of INT to create interesting and profitable companies and that is something that i do not see very often.

So hang in there as there is simply no logical reason to sell before we know more details on the upcoming events for INT.

Disclosure: I am long INT and have no intention to sell any of my position and could increase it depending upon market situation.

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