NRI: Yes one of my top stocks for this year.

THIS ARTICLE ONLY REFLECTS MY OWN OPINIONS AND IS NOT A TRADING ADVICE. ALWAYS DUE YOUR OWN DUE DILLIGENCE BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY INVESTMENT AND NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN LOOSE ESPECIALLY IN THE PENNY STOCK MARKET.


What’s up with Nuvo Research ?

Well, not a lot based upon their news releases (or should I mention the absence of)

How can you imagine that a corporation that gets a FDA clearance to sell their main product in the US is still so quiet about it.

They got their approval on November 4th 2009 and since that time only 4 press releases: 1 for their annual results , 1 to announce that they now have 2 CEO, 1 for early redemption of convertible bonds and 1 for their 1st patient enrolled in their study of WF10.

Since the FDA approval they have not post anything about Pennsaid. This is almost totally incredible and unacceptable. Does that mean nothing has or can be said about that product?

It is also very important to note that their shares have slid by over 50% during that period.

I don’t get it.

I agree that sometimes too much information is like none (they leared that lesson some years ago) but they need some professional advice as to how to get their message across the world.

We are in a communication world and in 2010. Why not use Facebook or at least a complete web site updated on time (when they got fda approval, it took them couple of days before updating their site)

Can we blame their IR person: NO they only act upon news from the corporation they represents.

But from now on, where are they going?

Nuvo Research is (as their name indicate) a research company in the pharmaceutical market and principally devoted to the pain area and they are not too concern about the selling of their products explaining why every country selling Pennsaid have a licensed distributor. It is worth telling that Greece, Canada and USA they have great companies and well recognized in the selling of pharmaceutical market. All of them have royalties to pay to Nuvo except for the Canadian distributor Paladin who paid in advance their royalties in 2008 (1 M$) and will not add a penny until January 2011. After that they will pay some undisclosed amounts to Nuvo on every sale made.

No details have been given concerning the % of royalties that they will received but must be in the 5-10% as it is a current standard in that market and nobody ever confirm the actual % for competitive reasons I presume.

That being said, will Nuvo sits on their Pensaid and wait for money to comes in or do they have another product(s) coming down the pipeline?

WF10 is something worth looking at for its numerous possibilities on the immune system regulation.

The first product called Oxoferin is a topical wound healing agent, and a diluted version of WF10 and without going into all technical details here that product seems to act on the immune system to achieve a faster wounds healing.

You can find all details here:

www.nuvoresearch.com/pipeline/oxoferin.asp

It is already marketed in parts of Europe, Asia and South America under several trade names including Oxoferin and Oxovasin and they have signed an agreement to sell in some parts of Russia later this year or in 2011 and also have exclusive agreement for distribution in Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore.

The only problem with this product is that they will have to find an improved formula because their patent’s has expired.

But WF10 seems to be very interesting in other areas like pancreas cancer as explained in more details here:

www.nuvoresearch.com/pipeline/wf10.asp

So WF10 could be a great pipeline drug but I do not see any revenues coming from it in a near future (except low royalties from Oxoferin / Oxovasin .

Another segment of Nuvo is FQUBED inc that not a lot of people talks about and unfortunately not a lot of info is available on them anyways.

So what 2010 will looks like for Nuvo is in my opinion only to be based upon Pennsaid and its acceptance in the US market even if they seems to be one the great research company based on the transdermal transmission of products in the pain area avoiding most of the dangerous side effects patients are used to with other products.

It has been said that the market only in US is a couple of billions$ per year and honestly the only way to evaluate a company is revenues.

Let’s see how it goes and how I think 2010 will looks like.

First of all they have about 46M$ in the bank (when you include receivable accounts) that they could use for whatever reasons they want except the following: dividend and shares buy back. These will not happen because of Canadian regulations as they do not meet the test to do any of those 2 things.

So what’s left: buying rights for new drugs in pipeline or buying companies that went bankrupt for their unused income taxes credits? Target companies could be like Chemokine Therapeutics who went belly up last year but still have unused income tax credits and many drugs in their pipeline. With 53 million shares valued 0,05 you see what I mean. Many other companies had the same problem and I think that they would have the choice.

Other possibilities would be to buy the rights to any Phase 2 treatment drug in the pain field business.

Last possibility would be a JV with a major company involved in a phase 3 drug that would benefit from their transdermal system.

On the transdermal side of their business, they may have the choice as if proved safe with Pennsaid, imagine what they could do for other drugs with lethal effects.

Do you believe also that they do not know what their first shipment to the US will be ? If so, why do they increased their inventory by over 700K$ recently: have sales diminished that much, can’t they control their inventory or do they know that first US order will be over 1M$ ?

Another point interesting to highlight is that they are now virtually debt free. That will save them about 750K$ in interest and fees in 2010.

R&D will also be lowered due to the fact that Covident now pays for all expenses related to Pennsaid and Pennsaid + development. This will be another 2-3 M$ in savings.

There are also no more existing warrants to dilute the stock again. Good thing for actual shareholders.

The infamous ‘going concern’ still exist and will be there for a long time as they still have a 185M$ in accumulated deficit and will not fade away in 2010. They are penalized a lot as they cannot included a good will amount in their shareholders equity. They will definitely redo the test to remove that but they will need more than milestone payment to get it out. So expect at least another year of going concern…

They will be also a great candidate for a takeover. For example, would Covident pay Nuvo 100M$ in milestone when you could buy the company for less than this amount right now. I know that take over needs shareholder approval and I think the price could be around 0,50 cents MUCH less than the real value of Nuvo. But because the stock has been spiralling downward for a long time now, a 0,50 offer would get the deal accepted for any major candidate like Coviden.

Here are my expectations for 2010:

Revenues about 25M$ including any milestone from Coviden plus other licensing fees and taking into consideration that US sales will only be for 8 months. Expect much greater revenues in 2011 nearing 70M$ and more milestone payments. Do not forget that Paladin will start again royalties’ payment in 2011.

There should be more licensing agreement for other countries during last quarter of 2010 and beginning of 2011.

More testing of WF 10 in the last quarters of 2010 and beginning of 2011

Net earnings of 0,06 per share in 2010 as expenses would be greatly diminished compared to last year in R&D and 0,11 earnings per share in 2011.

As a conclusion, NRI shares should be worth about 0,84 cents on a 14 to 1 EPS ratio in 2010 and closer to 1,40$ in 2011 unless a takeover is already in the makings.

This is enough to conclude that NRI is still on my TOP list for 2010 as those calculations are not very aggressive and full details regarding the milestone payments have not been disclose.



Disclosure: I am still long on NRI

ALERT TVI

It seems that finally TVI has been recognized as a profitable mining company by the accountant community...

The going concern is gone as it should have been the first financial note to be included on their year end final results. It's not there anymore as they pass the test:

no more cash deficiencies

stable and profitable Quarter after quarter for almost 1 year (including Q1 2010)

There are some more test to remove that infamous parapraph but it is gone for all.

That by itself is enough to cheers...

Will double check with sedar tomorrow but i think the version they have posted on their site is the final version sent to Sedar

Will be interesting to see the reaction tomorrow morning on the market and it could be the last time you can buy TVI at 0,12.

UPDATE VEI (2)

Well, now we know. Maybe the call made earlier today did made some people react to the fact that it was now the time to let us know.

With the NR just released, i am please to re-install VEI as my GAMBLE of the year company.

As i said their product is worth every penny spend on it and without a doubt they will find their way out.

They were unresponsible not letting us know but at least now we know why.

Thanks to the IR guy who probably found whom to talk to today and got the news out.

Will see but honestly i hpe the best for VEI.

UPDATE VEI

UPDATE ON VEI


THE FOLLOWING ONLY REFECTS MY OPINIONS ON THE ACTUAL SITUATION WITH VEI (verb exchange) AS AN INVESTOR. I COULD BE TOTALLY WRONG BUT UNFORTUNATELY THEY (VEI) DECIDED NOT TO COMMENT OR MAYBE THEY CANNOT FOR CONFIDENTIALITY REASONS. AS A DISCLOSURE I STILL OWN A GOOD CHUNK OF VEI.

Well, some weeks ago this was the gamble of the year but as time goes by, i think it went very bad to the point it could be totally worthless.

I tried to get in touch with somebody at VERB and there are many phone numbers to try but with limited success (604-684-4105 604-685-8363 604-684-4115). Their automated system on the 1-866-824-2273 numbers for Tabrio will transfer you to the receptionist and then to Joel their IR person when you mention Verb Exchange. At least there is still 1 employee working at Tabrio. In the past it was Arlen Hansen but I think she is actually on a leave of absence.

He was kind enough trying to explain that he does not know anything about VEI actually and that they are not getting anything to rely upon from Verb Exchange. In the past they were getting updates on a timely manner but since December 2009 nothing as surfaced form VEI.

I also told him that many rumours about bankruptcy or closing were circulating and his answer was stunning: (quote) I have not heard anything about that YET...(end quote)

I even think he was a bit embarrassed by this situation. Definitely not the problems IR are used to face…

I even sent them (the IR dept) this article for review (this is why I decide to postponed until 5 pm to give them enough time to answer if they wanted to but got no news from them (at least some weeks ago they would reply). This lead me to presume that I may not know anything more than they do about VEI but at least nothing written here is false or inaccurate.

The phones lines are still working (automated one…) and Tabrio site is still active and they still have a receptionist.

But the main site is down, all links from internet are down and nobody seems to be aware of that. Are you telling me that an operating company would not know that their main site is down since 3 days??? (it finally got back to life today at 2:00pm sometimes after my call)

To me that does not make sense and it all seems like a closure of that company or at best maybe, just maybe Tabrio was sold explaining why it is still active. If that was the case (some kind of merger) that could probably be the best news we could hope for and would fix the financing problem.

Just the way it has been done, the absence of communication (we are in 2010) and this lack of transparency are unacceptable from an international company and have nothing to do with size but professionalism.

If something went wrong, let us know and then we can make our own opinion and decide thereafter on what to do. It would not be the first time that any corporation has problems and it would not be the last time. But at least we deserve the right to know what is happening.

They were a lot more communicative when it was the time to refinance than it is today and whatever is happening, it will leave a bad taste in the investors’ community.

We as investors have the right to know what is going on and I am sure that a transaction halt should been put in place to protect investors that could be tempted to gamble on this stock.

We all need an explanation and need it now.

When times are difficult for any given company, it is the time to let shareholders know. A simple news release stating that they were working on a solution to fix actual problems would have been sufficient. The lack of any communication opens the door to rumours (bad or good) and is never a good idea.

I must admit that no news is sometime the greatest news and even if I think they are dealing with refinancing issues from within, 14 weeks without any update is more than enough.

So VEI, it is time to explain the problems and the outcome.

I may be totally wrong but based upon what can be seen, It was the gamble of the year and now it looks more like a black hole and that is the reason why VEI will be removed from my gamble of the year page today!

Whenever we get the deserved info I will kindly review and post accordingly.

UPDATE VEI

Expect an update today after 5:00 pm on the status of VEI and the answers i got from their IR.

AS OF NOW I AM NOT AWARE OF ANY CHANGES.

ALERT DAN

DAN just hit another 52 weeks high and expect a close over 12,35$ removing past resistance.

Next resistance level is around 12,95$

ALERT DAN

After early sell off, DAN has reversed the course. Expect leg up to 12,10$

ALERT PXLW

Even with a good selloff on the market this morning, PXLW did stay relatively stable. Could be a good occasion to buy on the dip as market is now stabilized and i expect a run up to 4,95$ either today or tomorrow.

ALERT ETFC

New CEO appointment could mean a dip from 5-10% in early trading as it will eliminate rumors of take over. Good time to buy around 1,46-1,49 as this company will turn around and rumors will start again soon.

ALERT TVI

Like Friday, ask are building but this time at a greater speed. Unless somebody throw a rock in the water, this could be the day that TVI start it's long awaited upward leg and maybe the last opportunity to buy under 0,12

ALERT VEI

Hold your breath as i think what i have called the gamble of the year may have another problem or simply shutdown. I tried to get confirmation from people i know in the brokerage business but nobody have seen anything anywhere and as mentionned on some forums any knid of restructuration, rollback or dilution would have been made public as it happenned.

Their website is down and cannot get any answers on phone, links or investor relations. As far as i am aware, the web site was still operating on friday. So something happenned recently.

If that is the case, well game is over BUT i would not sell those shares right now as maybe, just maybe something else is brewing or it could be a computer glitch. Their application Tabrio is still load correctly and installing properly. So if business had been closed, you would not be able to download from their autorized servors.

There were no reports filed with SEDAR regarding any bankruptcy filings, going concerns problem or else.

Will have to wait on early monday to find out more. There was no stock halt either meaning that the company is still in business and could be nothing more than a office move.

All in all it does not seems to be right...but it seems like that for the past 3 months. Expect a new release early monday if is over and if not there is something going on for sure.

One interesting point to mention is the volume of friday where over 400,000 shares moved on the ask side meaning that there were buyers  and even if money involved was minimal, normally when a business goes out, this should have been the opposite where shares would have moved on the bid side. Very curious.

Maybe somebody knows something but in all case, if you bought shares at 0,025 or 0,03 and bought a small qty (as you should have done...it was a gambling) you may not encounter a huge losse even if they were to go totally worthless. At that price, let's see how it will unfold next but definitely not a good time to buy more.

For the moment it is a HOLD    not a sell.

Hang on to it

ALERT TVI

If bids continues like it is now, we could have a great day. Best number of bids since many weeks. We may finally get rid of some traders here

alert PXLW

New 52 week high on low to moderate volume.

Expect a small transition period then another leg up to test 5,50$ mark

ALERT DAN

Base now well established 11,70$. Expect a 12,00$ retest today and this one could be successful.

ALERT ETFC

Looking at call option for April 17th 2010, there are more than 290,000 call contracts on ETFC between 2,00$ and 3,00$.

Could that many investors be wrong ?  The cost are between 0,01 and 0,03 and can be seen as a slot machine BUT who will throw away money knowing it will not work???

Personnally, if i was to gamble on these options, i would go with the 3$ october 16 2010 for 0,04 per share as it allow a lot more time.

Still for ETFC, the low's are now higher and the high's lower and this stock will find it's way either side rapidly. I think right after options expire on march 20th, there will be a rapid move.

ALERT TVI

Unless it changes rapidly after opening, bids are now growing rapidly.

Everybody knows that final 2009 will be release next week and if there are no surprises there, the 'going concern' could be removed due to super performance over the last 4 quaters (including Q1 2010 )

Also in the making is the next shipment planned for end of march that could bring another 9M$ in revenu. If that was to be, it would mean another record breaking profit for TVI.

If you are not in yet, it may well be the last time you can afford to buy TVI at 0,10  (the last time that i mentionned that TVI was at 0,06 and have almost double since then.

ALERT PXLW

This morning was a profit taking morning and is now followed by a consolidation phase at yesterday level. That is very bullish and i expect a test of the highs of  4.85 either today or early next week.

Very very good for PXLW shareholders...

ALERT DAN

DAN seems to have overcomed the 12,05$ resistance. Expect a retest of 12,30$-12.50$ today.

If close over 12,50$ today, expect another leg up to 13,05$ early next week.

ALERT TVI

Check carefully the selling pressure showing some ease. We can see that the ASK are getting a bit smaller and the bids a bit higher in quantity.

Actually one good indicator is the number of shares available between 0,10 and 0,145 and whenever that quantity will be reduced by half (actually about 4 millions shares available at opening) to less than 2 M shares, OR if the major qty of ask start moving up by a couple of half penny, this will be the signal to get in.

Just be careful about big orders coming in and disapearing rapidly (thanks to day traders...)

ALERT SSS

If stock price stays over 0,32 today, expect a leg up to 0,41 within the next 10 days without any other major news release.

Any news release that would imply a new partnership could send this stock to over 1$

WELCOME TO MPEL on my top list for 2010

After removing MB recently, and looking at results from LVS in the casino business, i decide to explore MPEL a leading competitor in this business in Macau.

Based on the facts that MPEL and LVS will compete for the samecustomers, i reduced the holdings on LVS and bought MPEL as the play in % could be more interesting: to double LVS had to climgb to 35$ with 660M shares but MPEL has only to get to 9$ with 443M shares.

A bit less and i think they will profit more rapidly than LVS.

Expect a more complete analysis within 10 days to explain the how's i conclude that MPEL will be well over 200%  gains this year.

ALERT BPOP

BPOP is now ready to have a good leg up IF it stays over 2,20$ this morning on some good volume.

The mood in the bank sector is improving constantly and expect a rally soon.  Time to get in gradually.

ALERT OCNF

With today's volume and price increase, OCNF should now be considered as out of the woods. Next resistance level is 0,99 and next buy signal is now.

When 1,00 is passed on good volume (over 1,5M) then expect a rally to 1,25$ then 1,75$.

Remember they only have 125M shares so rally can be very rapid.

Expect always a 8-10% retrace after hitting their resistance level.

ALERT DAN PXLW

We may experience a dip today where it could must probably be the calm before the surge...

IF low volume mid day ( less than 1M shares for DAN and less than 300K or PXLW) and volume is down about 5% WITHOUT significant news, then it could well be the right time to get in again and grab some more.

Expect another test for DAN at 12,30  to 12,50 soon and expet a retest of 4,85$ to 4,99$ for PXLW also in the next couple of days.

Some resistance for DAN at 12,05$ and for PXLW at 4,68$

ALERT DAN

DAN is getting ready to rettest it's high 52 either today or tomorrow depending of general market news.

Good day to buy on early dip this morning (if there is any) as next stop is 12,50$.

If it's hold ther for 2-3 days then expect another long leg up to 14,25$ within 10 days.

ALERT PXLW

PXLW has broken the 52 weeks hight then retreated a bit thereafter.

This company share will now be an explosive device ready to rocket.

Next resistance level are 5,88$, 9,96$ and then get ready to rock an roll:16,00$, 18,05$, 25,03$

Sounds too optimistic: if you have some $$$ to invest for the long run, it is now time to get in or wait for my next opportunity !

ALERT ETFC

ETFC has been on the rise for the past 4 days and this time the rise is not sudden but constant day after day. That makes a huge difference as it does not seems to climb based upon rumors.

Finally the market could have discover the real value of this company and this being the case, expect another good run of about 0,10 to about 0,20 within a couple of weeks.

The raise would not be as rapid as PXLW or DAN due to the fact that ETFC has 1,92B shares.

But expect another leg up if market opens higher tomorrow.

Update on MB

EVen if MB has been remove from my top list for 2010 i still believe the company has a great future. The only major problem is the unknow.

Tehy are operating from the province of Quebec and have been through many porlbems in the past and have always succeeded. (Remember the case against Lego!) They sell good products and again, their mistake was to become too big too fast by adding a company that did not worth more than 10% of the price paid and consequently having to recall many products that had a flaw in their basic design. That kind of problem can arise at any moment and a t any time (Toyota is actually a great example...)

There is no information circulating actually as to the share splits between actual shareholder and the one from the actual creditors and we will know when the final convocation is received for the special shareholder meeting..

Based upon first release, it will be about 6% to the actual shareholder and 94% to the new guys with a new share total of close to 600M.

To achive a 1$ share value they will need about 0,20 cents in profit per share per year and nothing is that easy when you forecast a break even result and sales are sluggish everywhere in the world.

Things can change rapidly but i cannot see a major return to profitability before 2011. After Q2 and Q3 results, i will see if MB deserve to get back in my top list.

Until then, well it will be  a maket for speculator and please do not forget that the new shares will be issued at 0,50 so to me, it is indicating the real value of the company AT THIS moment. 

ALERT DAN

Get ready for the next move.

If down, will dip to aroudn 10,60$ but if up, next level is 12,35$ then who knows.

You can gamble on a dip today but i personnally expect the start of  a leg up to 11,40$

PXLW is getting hit by profit taking

The last 2 days were difficult for PXLW and cannot blame the one who took some profit. Great job.

Now do not forget the fundamentals and unles they post a very bad surprise on Q1 2010, they are still poised to climb to the next level about 5,25$.

FOr the past 2 quarters, their results have been on the upper scale of management guidance and they expect 0,40 in profit for Q1 so the maths are easy: 0,40 * 4 quarters = 1,60$ per share multiplied by a very low conservative number pf 7 (tech companies normally use a factor between 10 and 15) then you see the potential being 11,20$ per share for this year.

It will not climb there in a one shot frame but expect end of Q2 (June 210) to be relatively close to 6$ unless bad news happen.

DAN

Is DAN ready to jump?  I think so.

When you look at 2009 results of today, it may well mark the end of negative profit quarters and i think market is reacting the same.

Right when the conference call started, shares were a their lowest and from that bottom they hit 11,03$ right after. It may sounds like analyst did appreciate the call and the guidance for coming months.

IF you are in DAN i would hold steady to see how market plays it and expect some bumps along the road. 
If you are not in yet, wait for the next dip.

PXLW Now my star #2 for 2010

PXLW is this Pixelworks or Fireworks???

(This analysis has not been either reviewed or cautioned by PXLW.)

What a great ride recently for this small cap company. In just a matter of days it went from 2,90$ to 4,65$ today before closing at 4,27$

What is happening there?

PXLW is a semiconductor company involved in the new technologies dedicating their products to high end displays, large scale projectors and LCD screens to name a few.

One of their biggest advantage (the opposite could also be true) is the fact that their stock float is relatively small with only about 13M shares on the market and already 29% owned by institutions.

By looking at their corporate site, you will see the numerous core technologies the own and it looks like totally on the edge of the technology. They have developed many software applications and seem to have many complete solutions.

So where is all that fuzz coming from? They are not new as they have been in business since 1997. They also had the privilege to get through the year 2000 bubble and in September 2000 they hit a whopping 143$ per share. So, it is not that also…

But, after many very bad quarters, they hit the bottom in march 2009 at a price of 0,37$. I guess at that time, everybody counted them out, dead without any ways to crawl back in…

That was a huge mistake.

They got back to 4,04$ on October 16th and were unable to get over that resistance due to a worldwide kind of recession and lack of orders.

But again, their management did what a company should do: get new products, get them better and increase your revenues.

And this is exactly what happened. When you look at their last quarter report, you will find that a major part of their total sales are coming from their newly developed products. By itself these new products results could mean a lot more orders to come in especially now that most of the talk in town is no longer ‘We are in recession’ but ‘We are going out of it’.

Now imagine for a moment that this company get back on track and start selling on the upper management guidance. As a matter of fact in Q4 this is exactly what they achieved.

Their gross margined increased substantially to almost 47% (versus 43% in Q3) and even if they posted a loss of 0, 07 per share, they end up the year with 31M$ in cash.

31M$ in cash???

That means almost 2,40$ IN CASH per share.

Hold on a second: It means that up until last week their share value was at par with their cash on hand. That does not make sense. Something must be wrong…Let’s get deeper!

Q4 2009 was a positive cash flow of 2,9M$ on sales of 19M$. Their total liability have been reduced from 86M$ to 43$ (50% reduction) Does that means that they can make close to 15% in cash appreciation every quarter??? Can’t be right!

Their management guidance at the high end of the scale is close to 0, 50 cents in profit with sales close to the 19M$ again.

On Q3 they also achieved the upper scale of the management guidance and they were also reporting a total debt of 15M$. Is that really all the debt load they have? Can’t be right!

Q2 they achieved the middle of management guidance and re-purchase of 60M$ in debentures leaving only 15M$ in debt…

So let’s recapitulate here:

Their shareholder equity is 13M$ (close to 1$ per share) and their net cash on hand is about 31M$. That number itself is impressive and tells me that have enough cash for their research and development and pay all debts as they presents.

A tech company in the semiconductors business will trade normally at a factor a lot higher than PXLW. For example Zoran (ZRAN) is actually trading near 1.64 price to sales ratio, AMD is trading at 0,99 times their sales, SIMG Silicon Image is trading at 1,22 price to sales ratio etc…

On earning per shares they beat AMD Advanced Micro Devices), BRCM (Broadcom) , ZRAN (Zoran) , NVDA (Nvidia Corp), SIMG (Silicon Image) RMBS (Rambus) and many more

So where is the problem?

They have the products, they have the management and since November 2006 when they restructure their business, they have delivered great results and achieved what they had planned most of the times.

Naturally whenever you restructure, you attack the credibility of the company and sometimes years can go by staying under the radars and this is the exact goal of this blog: find out the real next winner.

When you look at their results, their cash on hand, the lack of debts (this is good..) there are no reasons why that company could not attract more shareholders and I presume this is exactly what is happening: they are getting noticed.

When you compared to others in the same market and same category I have no doubt that PXLW should be at least in the same arena that their competitors and recognized as such. When keeping that in mind, I value the potential of PXLW as the following:

Cash on hand increasing by 2M$ per quarter in 2010 (share value of 3$)

Sales hitting 75M$ in 2010 (2.39 share to sales ration average equals a share value of 13,79$)

Profit per share of 1,20$ in 2010 (21 is the average for profit per share ratio) equals share value of 25.20$

So let’s be really pessimistic and cut all of those averages (after it is a small cap…) we have here a company basically evaluated only on its cash value. THAT IS A NONSENSE

In the coming months in a market going straight upward, I would not be surprised to see PXLW in the 10-15$ before we have our year end party. This led me to believe that they could return up to a 300% return based on Feb 22nd 2010 closing price and almost 500% since my recommendation on January.

They are now my STAR #2 for 2010

Enjoy your trading and never forget not to invest more money than you could lose. Always do your homework before investing in any company stock. This does not represent any investment advice. Also please note that a do have shares of that company as I have shares of all companies related to this site.

TVI and Balabag

Very surprising day for TVI as the news were very good this morning and share price hold for most of the day until some 1,5M shares were sold 15 minutes before closing.

Either somebody would not like to see TVI rise (i doubt it) or somebody just goofed...

Volume again was great and TVI will get it's days sooner than later.

Hold on strong on this one.

ALERT PXLW TVI

PXLW is on a consolidation phase. Expect leg up today end of day unless major block sold.

TVI the ask have been moving upward releasing some selling pressure.
Expect a leg up to 0,12 to 0,13 unless major block are throwed in.

ALERT PXLW

New 52 weeks high and base established. Expect another leg up today over 4,50$.

MB i s no longer on the top list

After reviewing this little analysis, you will understand why MB has been eliminated from my top list of winners for this year. The door is now wide open for a new comer.

This review has not been cautioned or reviewed by Mega Brands
The future of the company is now in the hands of the new owners…(if approved by actual shareholders in March) and based upon numbers below MB is NO LONGER part of my picks for 2010. Even if I think they will probably succeed in saving the company, there is no way in my opinion that their stock will be having the expected results to be on my list and here is why.
Originally called Ritvik then Mega Blok, this Quebec company has been a French Canadian company flagship for a long time until they tried to be what they never were: too diversified and they pay the price for it.
The transaction when they bought RoseArt for 350M$ (their value was about 45M$ only) was the start of their descent to hell.
Lawsuits after lawsuits, they ended up at their actual position: worthless.
OK, I am being rude here and they finally found a solution to stay in business and avoid going belly up.
Now, what about the regular shareholders: will they ever get back their investment value???
With the dilution and the possibility of a greater one if everybody was to exercise their warrants, actual shareholder will only get about 6.3% of the company and the balance will be ‘given’ to the creditors.
The impact of this dilution is naturally better than the actual bankruptcy of the company as we have seen in the past many bad stories (IQW Quebecor World ) where even if the company survived all shareholders were eliminated to the profit of creditors.
But this being said will we see MB going into the penny stock or will they emerge?
Let’s see some numbers based upon their last 4 years average:

Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *

2004 92,3 11,5 0,39 29,33
2005 175,9 20,9 0,61 31,39 21,00
2006 547,3 25,3 0,74 34,18 24,75
2007 524,5 -66,7 -2,82 34,4 11,00
2008 447,5 -458,7 -12,53 36,61 3,50
2009 231,6 32,8 0,61 60,124 0,50 9 months figure


It is easy to see from those numbers that the troubles started a couple of years ago. Do not forget also that 2009 results are including a 1 time event (72M$) and if removed from their operations, they show a deficit of around 40M$
Therefore in 2010 their interest charges will drop significantly by about 35M$ (based on Sedar filings) and litigation fees will disappear almost totally giving them a close to break-even situation.
My concern is the growth rate that I cannot foresee actually and the market reaction. At this moment, I cannot estimate more than the following results

Projected earnings

Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *

2010 265 15 0,04 335 0,54 No warrant conversion taken into consideration
265 15 0,03 578 0,31 Fully diluted

* Value range is average for the year
I must agree that they have great products and their balance sheet will be greatly enhance but at this time this company stock price is reflecting a value close to their books and until 2011 even if movement in price is great, their situation with the warrants will put a cover on any major stock price increase as it will put great pressure on any possible gains.
In my opinion, the share price will trade for the rest of this year between 0,27 and 0,60 being far from minimum expected of 200% to be on my Stock Star search list. If stock was to fell under 0,30 it MAY do a comeback on this list depending of the reasons behind the drop and that situation has not worsen.
Have a good one

Please: always do your own DD before making any investment decisions and never invest more than you can lose.

PXLW

WOW did we hit a wall totally unexpected at 4,31$. Lots of profit taking but low volume.

These are good signs as it did close over the prior day evenif it corrected almost by 0,70.

Monday will be a great day to watch and expect a good swing either way.

ALERT PXLW (2)

No more resistance until 5,45$ then 7,45$

This stock is on fire...

With last quarter results way above management view and revenues coming a lot more from new products the bad days seems to be over.

They are expecting something around 0,40 profit per share in Q1 2010 and if they do realise that, it will mean an average of 1,60 per year thus a projected share price of 11,20$ based on a very low multiplicator of 7 (range for tech company are more over at 12 that would give PXLW a share price of 19,80$. My expectations for sometime in 2010 (most probably after Q3 reults in october) would be 14$ leading to a 600% gain this year.

ALERT TVI

Share price very stable on strange stock movement.

I expect news within the next 10 days that could rally this stock to about 0,14

Do not forget that TVI has a lot of new projects that could be reveal this year and any one of them will create a great leg up as this is a really undervalued mining company. In my opinion, this company should already be over 0,30 and something is helding them down.

In any case, the longer actual price stay relatively stable, the igher the movement will be.

ALERT DAN

Dan is on it's new leg up.

Expect 12,25$ within a week unless results that will be published next week are bad.

My expectations are a break even quarter. If they hit a profit wathc for a fantastic rally that could lead DAN up to about 15$

ALERT PXLW

Abnormal volume for the third day in a row.

PXLW is shooting for the stars

ALERT OCNF

OCNF has probably established his base in the 0,79 to 0,82. Wait for a small dip to 0,799 today and if it goes to 0,85 after, that will be a buy signal. If you want to get in now, be careful as results are due on feb 23rd (next tuesday) and may cause a surprise either way.

ALERT MB

Just found out that MB has filed a chapter 15 last thursday.

At that point in time, if you have still some and did not took your profit in the 1,40$ range, HOLD on as it may have a very negative and temporary impact on the shares. It could well be a good opportunity to diminish your average cost.

More news to come.

Have a good one

François

ALERT PXLW

Hope you bought some on my last alert...30% gain in only 6 days

Maybe time to grab some profit. I would sell 5-10% and wiat for the dip. If it goes as expected there could be another dip of about 0,20cents tomorrow during the day. Use that opportunity to increase your portfolio. If you cannot get that price continue to monitor as i think the run will not be over for some time. I should post a complete analysis during next week but i can already tell you that this company does worth a lot more than the 4$ achieved today.

Have a great evening

ALERT DAN

Here it is. DAN is back and expect now a rise till about 12,50$ with dome dips tomorrow morning and around 11,50$

The Toyota recall is by far less than expected and will now push it until Q4 are release next week.
Good opportunity buy.

ALERT DAN

With the recently announced recall for 8000 trucks that contain a part that could break, keep an eye on DAN Tuesday morning (market close on monday) and get ready to grasp your profit awaiting dip if it was to start a descent. Be careful as opening price could already reflect some drop and normally things tends to correct themselve within the first 10-15 minutes of trading.

I do not expect a major drop as DAN is over 70% owned by institutions but just in case.

Have a great evening

ALERT PXLW

PXLW has established a new base between 2,90 and 3,10.

Next buy signal is 3,22$ on good volume (100K and more)

The Gamble of the year VEI

Not in my top 5 list for this year, but if you were looking in hte next coming months for andrenaline and have a couple of hundred$ left aside that you might want to risk, this play could be really interesting.

Here's why:

This article has not been cautioned by VEI and only reflects my personal opinion and point of view.


VEI: This Company could be the gamble of the year.

What’s going on with VEI ? Since December 2009, no news, no nothing. Don’t they have a new partnership with Answernet? Is it going well, is it generating new customers, are they finally going to get some margins somewhere????
As you can see they are more questions than answers right now and looking at rumours they could be either bought out by somebody else, they could have run out of cash in mid-December so it is time to try to put the right things in perspective.
VEI is a communication company and have one lead product Tabrio that enable communication between customers and companies allowing instant communication between that said customer and the company selling a product.
The difference is that Tabrio is not a device where you need a mike or earphone to communicate nor do you have to type your questions as in a chat room. No, Tabrio will connect your phone number to the call center. Very bright! It is also accessible to the regular you and me to connect between friends around the globe at great prices.
Communication over the net (Voice over Internet Protocol) is getting more and more popular but the problem is a very low % of margin. This is where I think VEI has a problem.
Their cost of sale and marketing is actually much higher than any other business type and would only be worthy if customer base was to grow at a very high speed. Even if 2008 and first 3 quarters of 2009 seem to show a growing number of customers, we do not have any confirmation due to a lack of updates from VEI
Going to Downloads.com you can find the software for free and up to date there were about 75000 downloads since January 2009 and 18 last week. So what does it says: not too popular in the public clientele or not advertised at all. Hope it is going MUCH better on the business customers. I must admit that you can download Tabrio almost on every popular software download sites and the number could be a bit higher. I would be very curious to see the actual number of downloads versus the actual number of users.
Beginning of December they signed a multi-year agreement with Answernet getting access to their 35000 customers for marketing and selling Tabrio.
Since then, nothing seems to have happen so only questions are still in the air and the problem with techno companies is that their past is not warrant of the future as the technology is changing too fast to be compared.
In my humble opinion they sales were not a success, their margin $ is getting lower and their ebitda is probably negative.
There is also a review you can find on internet:
http://www.qualidator.com/WQM/en/TestWebsite/http_www.tabrio.com/Report1851698/ResultCode32.aspx
There score was around 70% of the bench tests. Not too bad but average.
This is not a bright outlook and bankruptcy is getting close to reality base on the absence of comments or news release. When everything goes silent normally there are problems coming.
Even the blogs sites seem confused by the actual situation (stockhouse.com )
To be able to get around this they will need a major increase in customer usage fees or a miracle.
The only encouraging point is that nothing has been filed with Sedar the official filing site for any news release and important changes. (filing there is not a choice but an obligation)
Had they already choose to go bankrupt; they would have filed their intentions but so far nothing. So they could very well be in discussion to get new financing or private placement in exchange for new shares, warrants or options. Who knows?
How about getting another great deal signed?
They have many times resurrected from almost nothing and they could well be pulling out another rabbit from their hat.
And you know what, that could well be the case. On many occasions junior companies (in the sense of capitalization) rebound from their lows and explode. They still have a product, they are still doing business, and they are still making some sales so why not tell the whole world!
IN any case, if you have some $$$ to spare, this play could very well be the play of the year.

Have a great day

François

ALERT DAN

Seems that finally DAN has came out of it's bottom. Watch tomorrow morning if volume is there and price goes over 10,53$ then that will be another good buy signal.

If i would like to be gambler , i would wait AFTER it crosses 10,53 that it retrace to about 10,25-10,30 to buy on the dip.

Remember that 2009 results are due on feb 24th so expect volatility around that date.

Have a great evening

François

ALERT DND

Not part of my top 5 for the year but this could be a really good winner in the small cap pharmaceutical arena.

Good cash on hand and awaiting final FDA approval after setting their patent infrigment over their lead product.

FDA has already stated it would be approved if suit was to be fixed.

Now done since january 2010 and i expect a good rally very soon as normally 90 days are required for acceptation and we are getting realy close to this date. (unless an appeal is made in the next couple of days)

Again, it could be a real gamble so please do not invest more than you could loose as this one might be highly volatile.

Have a great day

François

ALERT PXLW ETFC

These 2 have probably bottomed end of last week.

Last results for ETFC and PXLW are very encouragin and i think we may well be on a good upleg

Have a good day

ALERT TVI ETFC

TVI (TSX)

The # of ask is getting lower and volume is picking up.

Next major buy signal is 0,115

Actual signal is BUY

ETFC (NYSE)

Consolidation phase going well after sudden drop to 1,52. Next buy siganl is 1,63.

Actual signal is HOLD

Have a good one

François

Why TVI is my #1 star for 2010

New year brings new stars. And now you will know why i picked them up. Coming soon DAN.

Have a great day


This document represents only my own opinion and is not cautioned by TVi.

My expectations are based upon available documents on the Internet and are from TVI site or approved sites. Based upon their 2009 credibility I have no doubts that there are no undisclosed matters that could affect negatively the future of this company.
I am still surprised by the quality of communication that we get from TVI. Since Ms. Benetto joined the company in September of 2009, we must admit that she did a phenomenal job in disseminating the story of TVI around the globe by all available means. This allows us to know well in advance the plans and objectives in a very transparent way. Although company must keep their secrets well-guarded, NOT ONE time was something planned that did not materialized. So for the matter of communication TVI get a 100% mark. Great communication job and great execution job from management.
They had established a plan in 2008 (that they did raise) and they had adhered to it. They were planning about 59M$ in revenue: well they did over 66M$ in 2009.
They were planning net revenue of 19M$ they probably hit the 21M$ (or very close to)
They had forecasted a mine life of 6 years at a lower drilling per day and end of September they were expecting mine life of 4.5 years. As of Dec 2009 it was 3.6 years. The mine life has reduced a bit faster than originally thought but I think the drilling pace is still at maximum allowed from government laws and over original plan. By itself it is a good thing as they will materialize more return by profiting from high metal cost that could change rapidly. One bit of negative here is that they will have to enhance mine life expectations not to return to a dead end situation and start borrowing again to restart another project. (See 2010 expectations)
Loan was a huge problem at the beginning. That loan did saved TVI from bankruptcy but they had to deal with it rapidly to avoid bleeding money to an unknown advisor at the pace of 40%. Well they did repay close to 50% of it and this was well over expectations. By the same operations, they also reduced the interest payable by a lot. They surely paid hefty penalties to do some advances repayment but overall it was worthy.
For 2009 finances realisations they get a 95% mark. Why not 100%: terms of agreement with the advisor. I will not go back to this saga and I understand that sometimes things must stay confidential and that it was a deal breaker and sometimes you cannot control every parts of an agreement that saves you from bankruptcy.
But in 2009 overall results they get a great mark of 5 starts (80% and more) and are on my list of top stars for 2010. Scores are for profitability, ebitda, following their plan, communication and future growth)
(I rank the companies I invest in every quarter and only keep the one with a rating of 80% and more)
So for 2010 my expectations are the following:
They will continue to drill as fast as they can the actual Canatuan mine even if they decrease mine life faster than originally thought.
They will use the proceeds to retire the debt within the next 3 quarters (at a rate of about 5M$ per quarter) or continue to research more affordable financing options. This way they could use the actual cash to advance faster many projects they already have on their plate.
Cash provided by operations will also be used to start the zinc recovery system that should generate about 8M$ in 2010 and advance drilling or production in the Canatuan vicinity. This could create a snowball effect: Canatuan then Canatuan vicinity then Balabag then who knows what could stop them…
I believe their revenues will be projected to be: 11 shipments of about 7.5M$ + 8M$ in zinc for a total of 90M$. Why 11 shipments and not 12? I expect a least 1 temporary shutdown either mid-march or beginning of April to allow adjustments to produce zinc. Any monthly shipment over and above already 11 is a gift. Also there will be some down time for maintenance and upgrades to the mill. I cannot see a mill working without any fault 12 months a years and 24/7. But even if they were down to 10 shipments due to lower demand or other reasons, they would still be in a great profit position.
They should get approval for additional increased throughput for the mill allowing them to go to about 2500 tons per day to process zinc and other ore from Canatuan expansion and if needed they can also apply for increase throughput.
Then based upon their new slide where they indicate a time frame for developments I would guess we will see the benefits of Dacon sometime in Q2 or Q3 and it could bring another 5-10M$ during 2010. This could be an extension of Canatuan (5-20 km in distance, (trucking distance)) where new ore drilled could be processed directly by actual mill. Based upon analysis 43-101 it is not unthinkable that the surroundings could be at least as interesting on a profit basis as the actual Canatuan is if not more if drilled properly. The key factor will be mine life extension. 10 to 15 years would be more than acceptable and I think opportunities exist to this effect if Canatuan vicinity is prospected well. Dacon would be able to supply the infrastructure needed like roads and buildings and the security and mining camps are already in place.
I would also expect mid of Q4 the start-up of Balabag mining property if drilling is complete. Could be a little optimistic and if it is the case if will go early Q1 2011. In any case well before actual Canatuan is depleted. It will start probably on a low scale but able to be finance by itself without using money from Canatuan. By itself Balabag would be a cash cow more interesting than is actually Canatuan. Based on silver and gold at 85% of what they are right now, this itself could generated about 80M$ gross revenues per year for the next 6 years.
So for the optimistic like me all combined 2010 should bring in around 90M$ actual Canatuan, 20M$ for extended Canatuan and maybe 5M$ from Balabag.
But reality will come close to a whopping 100M$ to 110M$ in 2010 for a growth of 50% to 70% and profit increase to about 40M$ close to 130%.
That is the beauty of TVI: being a low cost and profitable producer even if their revenues were to stay where they are this year, they would be more profitable due to savings from interest expenses.
Now for future growth the real thing is Tamarok. We will not get major new developments this year unless a stunning surprised like a joint venture with a Chinese partner or a company like Xstrada for example. And honestly I do not think TVI could start it up by themselves without any help by a major player as the cost involved are really too high..
By itself this project having a NPV of anything between 1,2B$ and 2,2B$ could propel TVI to the rank of a major mining company Worthing close to 1B$ when all properties are included.
Based upon all technical, 2009 results and my forecasts for 2010, TVI is now my highest ranking company in which I will be invested this year. Their scores are over those of DAN, LVS, ETFC and PXLW. (These represent my top 5 companies based upon their individual scoring)
The actual share price does not reflect (not even close) the real value of this company. Based only upon 2009 results that share price should already be in the vicinity of 0,23 to 0,34 (17M$ divided by 500M$ shares multiplied by a conservative factor of 7) and 2010 share price value would be in the vicinity of 0,63 to 0,90. What’s holding it: your guess is as god as mine. Could be the market regulator, could be day traders but I do not see any conspiracy unless a higher % of shares is traded. If only 1% of the shares would be traded in 1 day it would had to be over 4,5M shares traded. If somebody would want to go over the 10% mark, they would have to own 50M shares. Penny stock is great for penny flippers and some are making a living out of that. Viva las capitalism !
I do not expect nor am I interested in a reverse split to avoid future dilution if more cash is needed in the coming years. TVI has already diluted the share enough and any more dilution after a consolidation would destroy their image for a very long term.
I would be in favour of a 1 time dividend paid at year end 2010 for any profit exceeding their estimated net 2010. That could also mean a great thank you to the management who did a lot in 2009 to turn around that dead company into a very successful low cost and profitable mining company. They own 21% of TVI and would get 21% of the dividend.
For all those reasons, this is a great buy opportunity.

Best regards,

François

2010 Star Stocks

This is 2010 final update on this year hiddden gems that could rocket and generate a great return. All shares not listed here have been trowned out due to either bad return in 2009 or no faith for increase in 2010. They are listed in order or probable return this year.

TVI (tsx) : Junior very profitable mining company and well undervalued. They are valued under their gross revenues and this is very rare for a mining company that has so much to offer. They have made great improvement during the past 6 months to be more transparent and in my opinion they have nothing to hide and a great future in front of them. They are my top pick for 2010 and would not be surprised if they were to return over 400%

DAN (nyse): One of the biggest player in auto parts with contracts with all major car manufacturers. They have restructured in 2008 and no one knows where their value will stop. With so many car dealearships not having any inventory it is for sure that they will have to build them first before selling them and DAN will be one of the first to get orders. I expect close to 250% return this year.

PXLW (nasdaq) That one will one day explode. There is no way they can stay at this level for too long. Their sales in the next 2-3 quarters will give a good indication of the coming blast. I expect a 200% return for this one and if sales are great in the frist 2 quarters, it could well be in the 500% range.

LVS (nyse) The biggest player in the casino business and undervalued if revenues increase to 80% of what they were 2 years ago. They have major constructions near completion in Singapour and they are a major player in Macau and Las Vegas. If bad news were to sop i would not be surprised to get a 200% return on that one.

ETFC (nasdaq) Wait for report on january 27th and if results are good, it will rocket. Do not forget also that there are still many rumors about a buy out from a large competitor (TD ameritrade or JP Morgan) It could launch a bidding war and you may profit. If the second scenario is occuring, i could expect a 400% return on this one but only based on revenues it should procure a 200% return.

NRI (tsx) This company is not at their best right now on the investor relation side. They got their FDA appoval in november and since then stock has sunk. It is a hold for me but when sales figures are released for Q2 and Q3 expect this one to climb rapidly for a 200% return. They have a line up of great drugs in their pipeline and future growth should be fantastic.

OCNF (nasdaq) Still on the sideline moves but they are in good cash position and as of now they seems to be in a wait and see mode. They have a good ship booking for this year, they are not in any danger regarding obligations and stock will move upward when freight resume to last 2 years results. At that time, expect 150% return.

BPOP (nasdaq) Banking sector in US have been hit a lot since 2 years and BPOP should return to good profitability before Q3. When a quarter resumed to profitability, expect this one to give a 200% - 350% return

MB (tsx) (the january newcommer) They finally recapitalized and market reacted poorly by slapping this stock at about 1/2 of their real value. It is a hold at the moment as new shares will be issued at 0,50 end of march. But if you can get some between 0,50 and 0,65 it could be a good deal as their sales will definitely be good and i would not be surprised to see them rise close to a 1$ before deal close end of march. HOLD but expect 3$ end of this year.

KBH (nyse) They are one of the biggest player in house and apartment entrepreneurship. They are affected a lot by the actual recession in the US. But construction will resume later this year and any share you can buy between 13-15$ is a good buy on a long term view. Expect a 75% return this year.

WFC (nyse) The 5th biggest bank in USA and is now part of my portfolio for stability reasons. Whenever they start paying dividends back it sould go back to their 40$ real value. They are also present in Canada but there are rumors they could be selling that division this year.

RAX (nyse) This one is a newcomer and for the long term only. They are in the Cloud Computing business. 2 words that make some giants like Microsoft very nervous. DO some reasearch on cloud computing and you will understand that the gigest player will be some kind of Google and Yahoo some years ago. This stock may not climb 300% this year but expect a continual rise for the next 3-5 years.

SSS(tsx) Steam cell is probably also a field where many discoveries will take place and why not go with a player that seems to know what they do. At that price it is for fun only at this time and return could be huge. Take a gambling approach on this one. I do not have any expectations at this moment but will let you know with alerts if something happen.

Regarding UUU, FIU, Sprint, WCS.A PRP and F profit was taken and their balance is now at 0 due to better play somewhere else.

Hope you will enjoy this fresh new year and again DO NOT INVEST MORE THAT YOU CAN LOOSE" Do your own researchs before investing in any of these stocks. I do own most of them but you must do your homeworks before investing in any of these. I normally donèt buy to resell rapidly unles major profit is to be make. Whenever you invest in a company be abel to keep those stocks for a period of 2-3 years to avoid bad decisions.

Have a good one

François

ALERT DAN MB

With yesterday rally, DAN (nyse) is now in record territory. When it emerged last year from bankruptcy shares were trading at about 14$. With a little push it could be going throughout unknown territory. I expect this to happen within a month. It's not the right time to short that baby...Next buy signal 12,26$ giving market to retract a bit before next rally.

MB (tsx) has rallied 40% yesterday. Now the real question: is that substainable??? If you are long or short there is nothing like taking a profit in a so short period of time the difference will be that if you are long, you will take a minor profit, if you are short get out of there and wait for a dip. Is that substainable??? We should know by the end of this week. It could be a bubble and if so it will burst before the week is over. If it goes over 2$ by the week-end, well that will be time agian for a profit but at least the answer will be it is substainable. Results will come in the next 6 weeks and i think they will post a solid quarter with excellent profit and naturally they will not break their covenants with their banks.

Have a great day

ALERT TVI DAN LVS

Good news again this morning.

TVI (tsx) They have completed their 10th shipment on time again. This brings the total revenues to 64M$ for the year and profit will be about 15M$ for the year. That means that actually ayou can buy a great mining company (profitable) for a ratio of about 1 to 1 on a revenues basis and 3 times net profit. THAT IS VERY GOOD. Next price target for this one is 0,16 to 0,20 end of February. Next buy signal is NOW

LVS(nyse) They just got upgraded again from UBS to 20$. Expect 16$ to 18$ within 30days. Next buy siganl is NOW

DAN(nyse) Another manufacturing report positive for the US. DAN is on another great run. Next target price is 15$ end of February and next buy signal is NOW.

Have a great day

François

Welcom new member of Stock Star Search KBH

KBH(nyse) is my new member for 2010.

One of the biggest residential constructor in the USA and badly hit bit the last recession.

This company will emerge as soon as we can see a steady market recovery and at that price it is a bargain.

Even during the worst of the recession it never felt below 8$ and i expect a major recovery for the coming year target price being 27,50$ almost 215% return.

Again remember not to invest more than you can afford to lose.

Watch for beginning of the year listing of all my major plays for 2010 and the reasonning behind these choices.

Have a great evening

François

NEW MEMBER MB (tsx)

I welcome MB as the 2009 new comer for my stock star search.

Well positionned in the toys business (geat rival of LEgo) that Quebec company almost went belly up this year when they faced major challenges in suit actions and financing.

To my knowledge, these times are over. I still expect great volatility until they announce a new financing deal. I expect that announce sometime in early 2010.

Their sales are finally increasing and the worst is over.

I expect end of 2010 a share price over 6$ givin us 600% return.

Again, DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN LOOSE and please always do your own dd before investing in any companies.

Have a great week and expect my last new comer before year end.

François

ALERT DAN ETFC

DAN is now enroute to 12,50$. What a great year for that company. 12,50 is it's next resistance level but i would not be surprised if it was going to hit 16$ due to the analyst reccomandation of today establishing a new target of 16$.

ETFC has now some analyst returning to their coverage. THis is a very bullish signal and i expect 2$ by the end of the month.

Have a great evening

ALERT DAN TVI

Dan has made it today when it did hit 10$. Great achievement but it is not over.

It will see major resistance due to profit taking but expect another good rebond due to high expectations from Q4 2009.

If you are a long holder, 2010 will be grat as automobile market is only poised to go higher.

If you are a short term, then you can pocket some profit now and try to buy back on the dip but it could be difficult to predict at this stage as i expect DAN to be highly volatile for some days ahead.

TVI should be releasing soon their last shipment of the year that will bring a new year record in revenues and profits. This could leaf to another 0,02 gain and time to take some great profit just in time for CHristmas season.

have a great evening

Update

Not excessive movement on most stocks since 2 weeks but that could chagne rapidly as the word is spreading aobut end of recession and job creation is on the way.

LVS (NYSE) Was very deceiving with their 2,5B$ IPO 1B$ less than estimated. New price target end of the year 20$. But this one is now a long shot with all rojects and opening that will take place early 2010, it will correct itself in the 30$ value.

ETFC (NASDAQ) Still awaiting more rumors about take over by either TD Ameritrade or JP Morgan. The latest is too quiet at this moment and could surprise everyone. Still a good time to accumulate as even without take over, profit will be back rapidly and expect share soaring right after.

DAN (NYSE) Lst time i mentionned that it was not a question of IF but WHEN and that time has arrived. Superb performance from DAN and numbers are not out yet. Price target early 2010 at 13$

NRI (TSX) What a shame...Got their FDA approval and since then 50% drop...In my view poor management lead the company to that level. Still a hold pending 1st quarter report.

OCNF (NASDAQ) Will rise whenever shipment increase. DO not forget that this company is already having contracts for over 100M$ next year. So it will turn back. It is still an ACCUMATION time.

PXLW (NASDAQ) It is turning the corner and sales will increase dramatically etween now and june 2010. Still a very good time to accumulate. Price target 5$ end of june 2010.

BPOP (NASDAQ) Slowly but going up. WIll get back in line with the next quarter report. This is Poerto RIco biggest bank in assets and will recover. Later than some other but great recover. Price target of 4$ end of march 2010

F (NYSE) This is THE carmaker that will benefit the most in 2009 and 2010. Expect a constant increase to a 14$ level after 2nd quarter 2010 report

TVI( TSX) This will be my star in 2010. Great value. Since 2 months already a double and it's not over yet. With all they have on there plate, i would not be surprise to see that one close to 0,60 end of december next year for a whopping 500% gain.

I will continue to monitor carefully those stocks and i should add a newcomer later this month.

Have a great day

UPDATE

Good evening,

Time for some update on my preferred stocks.

ETFC (NASDAQ) is again on the verge of take over. With so many call options exercised today, i would expect an offer within the next 45 days from TD ameritrade. BUT do not count JP morgan out in the field. I would not be surprised to see some kind of fight between those 2 companies to take control over ETFC. ADVISE : HOLD till news are out

DAN(NYSE): Still getting great resistance but o think the worst is over. I still expect a major gain within end of year and 8$ by the end of this month. ADVISE BUY

OCNF (NYSE): Finally it is marching back toward the 2$ mark. Expect some bumps along the road but this company will get back on profitability and at the same time expect a great return. ADVISE : BUY

LVS(NSYE) Lot thougher than expected. Seems that 18$ resistance will not go away easily. Still maintain a 25$ objective for the end of november and a buy rating. May re-evaluate the 35$ end of december.

BPOP(NASDAQ): Ver stable and investors are awaiting probably the next quarter report before getting in. ADVISE HOLD

NRI(TSE): May seems totally wrong but it is not unusual to find companies like that going down on good news. Remember that some times you buy on rumous and sell on the news. On long term it is absolutely a great buy. Patience will be required and now is the good time to accumulate.

TVI(TSX) No other word than WOW. It did exactly as forecasted and it's not over yet even if i think we may see some negative trends for a couple of days. Rememeber a penny stock is a paradise for day traders and looking at activity today some are getting in as large blocks were bought then went into the ask price right after. This is normal. Great time to accumulate and at the next shipment notice from TVI expect another very good rise in the stock.

PXLW (NASDAQ) As mentionned previously, it was oversold and we can feel it since a couple of days. After retreating to almost 1,99$ it is climbing back to where it should be near 4$. It is rated a good buy.

UUU(TSX) is still awaiting news from Japan on their 20% production sell to the Japaneese community. When that happen get ready for a huge stock rally. GOod time to accumulate.

PRP(TSX) Well i am out. They fail to deliver and their book orders are getting smaller. Expect a decline to the 0,10 and then it could be a buy but at the moment it is a SELL

FIU (TSX) Again another deceptive stock. I am out and it is a sell

OPC(TSX) It is still a speculative play in case of take over by China. Other than that no more interest. Rating HOLD

One new member on board is Ford (F: NYSE). They have in my opinion the best results this year and could be back into the 15$ within 3 months. Rated BUY

That's it for tonight. REMEMBER: DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE.

The opinions expressed are not from a professional trader but my opinion as a frequent trader

Have a great evening

François

ALERT LVS (NYSE) DAN

LVS is near it's resistance level. If it goes higher than 18,67 than this will be a great buying signal.

I maintain that unless major problem arise, LVS will close the month at 25$ or really near.

DAN is trying to get past it's huge resistance at 7,60. Get ready for a buy signal immediately after 7,60 on good volume over 1M shares. Expect a target price of 8,50$ end of november if it goes past it'resistance.

Have a good evening

ALERT TVI (TSE)

Tvi has achieved 50% gain since last week and all indicators show signs of another climb to probably 0,13 to 0,16 by the end of this week.

Copper is again on the rise by more than 10% since last month and i expect another record earnings quarter ending december 31st. Add up a refinancement possible before year end and you have all conditions for a stock price explosion to he vicinity of 0,35 end of this year giving a 600% return in only 3 months.

Remember not to invest in those penny stocks more money that you can afford to loose.

Have a good day

François

ALERT TVI (TSX)

TVI has just reported their best quarter in many years (i even think it was their best) with net revenues of more than 0,02 PER SHARE ! WOW

If logics held...that one is going to ride for the next 5-8 days. If they were to add up some kind of refinancing on top of that, that could be my STAR of the year. (beating IQW (tsx) that was sold for over ,10 and paid under 0,007... This one was a killing)

Get ready for the ride that could start tomorrow. Already today volume has been really high anticipating great revenues (already discussed long time ago here...)

Have a good evening.

(for the other stock there will be an update this week end and as of tonight, most of them are in the over sold situation and ready to reboud. Watch DAN (NYSE) as it is trying to explde)

ALERT OCNF (NYSE)

Very good quarter when we exclude the 1 time event (1 vessel sold book readjusted to 0) that has no incidence on cash.

They now have in cash close over 60 Million $ and are way undervalued. The real value of this stock is now close to 3.50$ (net value of 313M$ and 90M shares outstanding)

Traders will notice and i expect a good recovery on this stock.

As usual be carefull of market opening frenzy and you could even be able to buy more mid day at a price close to 1$. At that price i consider that one a bargain if you are ready to wait 12-18 months to make a great return over 200%.

Have a great evening

ALERT NRI LVS DAN

It could well be the day those 3 stocks starts their ascension.

LVS(NYSE) is on the verge of a direction change. If volume is good after opening frenzy, then expect a mjor increase in share price. If it holds over 16,25$ then price traget for novembre 30th will be about 25$ based on technical data.

NRI (TSE) is having a volatile debut after FDA and that is normal. Day traders will be moving away and investors will get in. Expect over 0,50 end of the month.

DAN( NYSE) Car makers are starting to feel the low orders they made in the last 6 months and auto parts will be in great deamnd. Expect 8$ end of november

Have a good one

ALERT NRI (TSX)

NRI has been approved by the FDA (against all odds or almost)

Get ready for a very strong stock price increase.

If you are already in BRAVO you just made a lot of $$$ if you are not be carefull about opening as i cannot forecast how it will react having 500M shares will be very bumpy.

I do expect over 0,80 today and probably the best time to get in will be after lunch when normlly stocks dip.

BE CAREFULL

ALERT DAN

As expected DAN (nyse) did show great improvement on their balance sheet. They have lowered their debt significally and their forecast for the coming quarters are very very good.

I expect DAN to fianlly get back to where they belong around 10$

Buy Signal NOW

ALERT BPOP(nyse)

BPOP just been upgraded to buy from hold. Expect good market reaction.

New buy signal 2,27$

UPDATE on DAN F WCS.A NRI LVS

With surprising profit reported by Ford, i am under the impression that the parts manufacturer like DAN (NYSE) and WCS.A (TSX) would have benefitted from it and their quarter reports will also show good improvement.

To be monitored carefully and i expect a great bounce back from DAN.

Next buy signal is 6,59$ with volume over 2M shares.

Regarding NIR(TSX) clock is ticking and after last week anything can happen. I think their chances of getting approved are about 80-20. Expect a really volatile week and maybe the right time to enter some buy at low level (between 0,05 and 0,10) because there are no support on the way down and if rejected it will go down like rock for 1-2 days then will climb back to the 0,18 level. If you were lucjy to get some at 0,,8 then sell at 0,18 that would be a great profit for only a matter of days.

LVS (NYSE) is confusing me. It seems that bad reports are coming one after another and shorters have taken that one really down. If it does nto recover with this week to a price around 18$ then i will lower my expectations to 30$ end of december.

Have a good one.

ALERT LVS NRI

Good morning,

As expected LVS (NYSE) got ok for their Honk Kong ipo. Expect a good share rise for the coming days and a small step back at 20$. Buy signal 16.10$ after 10:00 am as market could be a bit strange in early trading.

NRI (TSX) on 3 days left before approval or rejection from FDA. No runnup seen yet indicating 2 things: no leaks and buyers are wating on the sideline to get in as soon as answer is received. Expect a halt trading on tuesday or if not halted tuesday, news could be bad. If it is the case i expect shares to fall to as low as 0,085 after trading resume or hit over 0,70 if news are good. Could be a good idea to put your orders at 0,09 if you want to play the market as shares will get back to 0,20 within a week. This company will not go belly up even if news are not good as many more products are coming.

Have a good day

LVS ETFC DAN TVI

I hope you took some of the sitting cash to buy some more LVS (NYSE) because as expected, they are the gambling leaders and now get ready for the jump to a new 52 weeks high no later than monday or tuesday when IPO is accepted by Hong Kong regulators.

I think we will even get the answer tomorrow after market close.

If approved, stock will skyrocket by another 1,75$ then end of november it will be over 21$ to end up the year close to 35$.

Look at their results carefully and you will see that Wynn (NYSE) did had a loss when LVS generated a 0,03 cents profit. HUGE difference. Get ready for profit taking near mid december.

ETFC(NASDAQ) Same story. After releasing their numbers, a bear trap was set when it hit less than 1,50$. Now shorts are trying to cover their back and buying back. When you look at the results you will discover that even if losses seem to be phenomenal, they only loss 59M$ being far less than expected. Also their tier 1 ratio is now in the 'well capitalized area' meaning a target war could start rapidly between to major players: TD Ameritrade and Schwabs and guess who will get the most: the one who owns shares TODAY. This is a great opportunity to make a fantastic profit in only a matter of 2-3 months. I am expecting a take over bid by TD ameritrade at about 2,25$ the Schwab will win it at 3$. So it could be a double in only 90 days as it will probably be done before xmas to end the year doing some 'window dressing'. Both of them have made good profit and for example Ameritrade is sitting on cash in excess of 1,4B$. Get ready for a great ride.

DAN (NYSE) This one is ready to fly. Most car companies have indicated an increase in sales. But have you seen a dealer parking lot recently??? THEY DON'T HAVE INVENTORY. So what's next if they want to sell: They have to build cars and believe me they will build them as soon as possible. So who will benefit: Joe around the corner or a 22,000 employees company?

DAN has over 22,000 employees around the world and are ready to ship parts needed and they will.

Expect a major (i mean MAJOR) increase in that stock even if 3rd quarter numbers are not good next week. If it is the case, the share will probably goes to 4,90$ to 5,30$ and that will be another good example of a bear trap and short activity. GET RADY TO GET IN. At that price it will be a bargain. Now estimating july 2010 share value well above 10$.

On TVI (TSX) side, they completed their 8th ore shipment this week and increased their total $ received per shipment to 7,2M$ as expected as copper price still rise. I would not be surprised also to see some news about refinancing coming aroudn november 15th right after their 3rd quarter results indicating a new record revenue. Expect this one to climb well over 0,30$ early next year.

Enjoy your evening

François

where do we stand

LVS (NYSE) Has reached as expected 17,25 then dropped passed his support at 14,95. Unless you believe their results willl be bad and that they will not have their financing to complete their projects and that their IPO will be bad, it is now well priced to make some great profit. Do not throw all your money at once but buy gradually.

ONCF (NYSE) Now figuring into my mystery portfolio. Great balance sheet and still no confidence from market. Under 1$ it has now reach the point where major players are out. Big decision to take on this one. Take the losses or hang on to it and maybe even buy some more to decrease average price.

DAN(NYSE) getting ready to disclose 3rd quarter results and being hit big some kind of sell off. Not great volume so could be only profit taking. I do expect a good recovery on DAN.

PXLW (NASDAQ) What a bad week for a company that is still profitable this year. Not too many can say the same. I am still very confident about this one. Remember that they only have 13M shares on the market and this could explain volatility.

ETFC (NASDAQ) Results were not that bad but it is back to is support. Still lots of rumours about a take over that could send back the shares to about 2,65$. I would not sell my positions right now.

NRI( TO) That is the story of the week. In 5 minutes it went from 0,32 to 0,13 to get back into 0,30 territory and all of this without news. Many investors decided to get out before next week announcement but there were simply no buyers dropping the price to almost 1 year low...Still holding some position on this one but large chunk was eaten by stop loss orders. Somebody somewhere did make a lot of money with my shares...

The market is going nowhere as even if news are not bad, they are not great either. We will need to see improvement on the spending side to finally get into high gear recovery. Until then expect great volatility.

Have a good one

ALERT DAN

DAN (NYSE) is en route for his resistance of 7,45$.

If it breaks 7,59$ this will be a new buy signal if volume is there (over 1M shares). Be carefull about bull trap

ALERT LVS

LVS (NYSE) is getting close to it's support at 15,97$. If it goes under 15,80$ get ready for another drop to about 14,50$.

I know i have mentionned it should get back to 17$ early this week but i am suspecting a hug increase in short selling as volume is not there and 3 majors blocks were sold at the end of the day almost at the same time WFC got rated sell. This is sometimes seen as negative momentum and for short sellers it is a great opportunity to benefit from market frenzy and fear.

If it goes to a low level like taht, it would be a great opportunity to buy some more unless something really bad is brewing and this, i do not believe. With all that's coming and LVS being the biggest casino operator, and having fixed (or close to) their debt, i still believe in 35$ end of the year.

ALERT PXLW NRI TVI

PXLW (NYSE) Today numbers were a bit disappointing but volume was not that bad. Shares went down to 3,05 being a bear trap or condition named oversold. I expect a rebound and at least it is a good time to acculmulate. The numbers when looked up carefully are very good and i expect a bounce back well above 4$ within 3 weeks. Be patient, rewards will come.

NRI (TSX): It's on the move (unless it is a bull trap or overbought). In my opinion, volume as not picked up yet enough and will increase by probably 3-4 times within the next 5 trading days. Compare to last time when approaching FDA approval date, it is well in advance and volume has just start to pick up. Remember to cast in you sell orders at at level where you make a profit even if not approved. But there is still 10 trading days before approval. If the day prior approval you see a surge in stock price, could mean unconditionnal approval as there are always leaks both ways (look at the charts for august 4th approval date when shares startsed to tumble well before announcement) .

TVI (TSE) With incident in Australia mine, the big news was concerning uraniu price but it will also create a gap of 50,000 tons of copper that will reflect on next week copper price. I would not be surprised to see TVI gain 1 or 2 cents. 2 cents is almost 30% gain). If you want to play this baby, put in your 0,07 orders tonight as i think it will be too late tomorrow. If you enter your orders at 0,07, do not changed them tomorrow morning as it couls also be a bull trap. The difference between mometum and bull trap is that a bull trap has lot more sellers than buyers. Momentum is the opposite. Go to level 2 orders and check it out carefully when market open NOT BEFORE as sometimes traders will send in large orders and then remove them right before market open.

TVI What's going on

Very interesting company.

They never did over 0,40 in the past but that could change easily. (they hit 0,39 in 2004)

To avoid going bankrupt they had financed their company on high interest loand and even loadns from company officers and gave lots of warrant at an averaging price of 0,016.

Their total shares outsanding fully diluted is over 500M explaining in part their difficulties to move higher. But many who have exercised their warrants must have already taken their profit as i saw many huge stock blocks going on sale recently.

Other problem is that their finances were so bad, they are reporting their results with the mention 'Going concern' forcing them to under evaluate their company value. (Please read quarter reports)

They also settled a court action by stock owners between 2006-2007.

They still have a cumulated deficit of 32M and until april of this year their future was in jeopardy. But they stopped the mine commisionning and started shipping their first 6M$ copper concentrate.

Their financing obtained in February 2009 also is of concern with a 24% annual interest rate. Do not forget it was at the peek of credit freeze.

NOW : THE POSITIVE SIDE

They are shipping copper concentrate and copper price went from 1,77 to 2,94 (today london price)

They were shipping every 6 weeks. Now they are shipping every 4 weeks. (1/3 increase)

Their cost per ton is diminishing rapidly NOW 0,58 agaisnt 0,78 /Cu lb eq

Tons of ore processed per day increase from 90 to 104 Tons per quarter (11% increase)

Copper recovery increased from 61% to 87% (almost 40% increase in processes)

Still unclear as to what is happening to gold and silver recovered during process.

MY FORECAST:

1) Copper will still rise. I expect another 25% during 2010 (3,75$ per pound)
2) Shipments will continue on schedule for a total of 75,000 DMT in 2010
3) They will refinance their debt to a much reasonnable level (9-12%)
4) They will generate enough cash flow to eliminate a good chunk of their debt
5) They will expand their mines again in 2010 using cash flow NOT new stock
6) I expect annual sales of 120M$ in 2010
7) I expect net income per share of 0,14 or better in 2010
8) Share price of 0,42 during 2010 based upon a very very low 3 X net earnings. This is very low but with so many warrants and 500M shares it will take some time before hitting the 1$ mark.

To me this is a BUY but you must understand that it is a penny stock on which MAYBE we need to know more. Normally MARKET KNOWS IT ALL and that stock still being in the 0,06-0,07 indicates that their maybe still a problem or MAYBE nobody knows yet about this company...

In any case, could be a very good play if you have some money that you could loose without loosing sleep.

Please do your own due diligence on this one and never invest more that cou can afford to loose.

Have a great evening

ALERT LVS

Now on oversold condition. Should rebound to 17,18$ beginning of next week

Good time to accumulate some more by reinvesting profit taken recently.

ALERT PXLW

After some profit taking, PXLW (NYSE) is reversing his early morning tendancy.

New price target this month of 4,85

New buy signal NOW

ALERT DAN PXLW ETFC

PXLW (nyse) has one of it's best day in long time very close to a new 52 weeks high. Something is brewing and i suspect good news are coming regarding earnings. BUY on the dip.

DAN (nyse) New buy signal at 7,41$. Again good results will have it sky rocket (remember cash for clunkers...May have had a major impact)

ETFC (nasdaq) New rumors again of a possible take over. Expect major movement in that one and if it's for real, then major profit to be made in that one.

Stay tune for more good new coming soon.

Finally !

Dow finally broke the 10,000 barrier. What does it means: if next 2 weeks earnings continue on the same trend we have seen with Alcoa Intel, Jp Morgan etc, well we are in for a very nice rally. That does not mean there will be no bumps, but we could think of a 10,750 DOW end of december.

For companies that i follow here are the recaps:

LVS (NYSE) IPO now in november. Will decrease my estimate to 35$ end of december. Still a lot of resistance at 18$ but once broken expect 23-25$ rapidly. Next buy signal is: 19,57$

DAN (NYSE) : For this one it's a question of when and not if. Should be flying (if earnings are good) to 10$ to 12$ end of this year. But they need growth not expenses cut. Next buy signal is: 7,71$

PXLW (NYSE): After recent months ride, expect a really good one. Last quarter they announce profit when everybody expected them to be negative. Their guidance is not precise enough to have a taste of what's coming. I expect 4,75$ if results are good. Next buy signal is: NOW

ETFC (NASDAQ): This could be a shocker. It is trading almost flat but they will deliver reasonable results. So expect a spike about 0,50 to 0,75 after results. Next buy signal is: 1,83

NRI (TSE): only a matter of days to know where it will be going. FDA expected on nov 4th and then, if approved, expect 1,00 to 1,25 and if not, well how about 0,11. PURE speculation stock but could be very interesting. Next buy signal is: 0,37

TVI (TSE): Again, probably too late to buy at 0,065 as there is too many order already (but even 0,07 is not bad). With copper price going up, shipments of ore every 4 weeks, this company will end up october with a share value less than 1/4 of their annual sales...It does not make any sense and big players will find it out.Expect 0,125 cents end of december unless there is something really bad that i do not know about them. Next buy signal is: NOW

BPOP (NASDAQ): Due for earning tomorrow. Results will be ok and previsions will be a lot better as situation improves. This is what's going to make that stock move higher NOT the results. Being #1 bank in Puerto Rico (by assets value) it could achieve a major rebound until end of this year. Maybe optimistic but 5$ does not sound bad for this one. Next buy signal is: 2,91

FITB (NASDAQ) I am still out even if i think one could be the next Wells Fargo. The problem is stock has no direction and trading sideline. It will explode but even if i think it could be up, i do remember that last quarter they had a partnership establish for one of their division that generated lots of profit. This will not happen this quarter so on that one i do not know. One think is sure, 3rd quarter will gives a good idea of where it is going. Be carefull about overbuy reaction and wait for stabilisation after it's next move. Next buy signal is: HOLD

OCNF (NASDAQ) It is still to accumulate on this one. This is a long shot and even if i would not buy tons of it, i would go gradually with the dips. To me it is still a buy and i expect 1,75 end of this year. Next buy signal is: 1,31

PRP(TSE) NEW ONE.... Again in the penny stock arena but this is the leader of his domain. They had major financial problems this year but were named the leading tech company in Canada regarding growth over the years. With the move they did to raise money and orders still coming in, there is no doubt it will eventually be really profitable but until then it will stay in the penny stock range. I would play a bit on this one and would not be surprise to see gradually improve to the 1$ level within a year. If it does , it is a 500% return. But again DO NOT PUT ALL your $$$ in this baby. It could burn you badly. This is a penny stock and must be 'play' money only. Next buy signal is: 0,215

This week-end i will go in depth on TVI trying to find out the reasons why it is so low and the real expectations of this company.

Have a good evening

So where do we stand ?

Dow has flirted with the 10,000 and no doubt it will break it if results coming are good and if FORECAST revenues are on the rise. There is no way market will climb again if expected 4th quarter revenues are revised lower. Companies have made it ok so far but most of them from cuts in spending. Now is time for growth.

I expect banks to be better than expected especially the big one like Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE)and some surprises in manufacturing goods. Later this week we will see manufacturing capacity % and i expect a rise signaling some growth in that area. This is the base for any major recovery for the next 2 quarters.

On metals, prices are increasing and this tells me there is more demand for basic stuff. This is another good signal for the coming months.

So this week is a crucial one for market trend as we are exiting the market correction from the last 2 weeks ( almost 6% as expected in the last 10 trading days when considering intraday)

On all companies that i have under the radar, TVI (TSE) is at the moment the one that i suspect is ready for good increase. Their revenus will be around 150% of what they were in the last quarter and projections will be higher than originally thought. I wouldl not be surprise to see their share price goes as high as 0,20 cents after their results are published around november 13th to 16th. They will probably announce also that they have refinanced their debt reducing their interest expenses and those 2 factors combined will boost that company a lot. If they reach 0,20 cents on nov 16th, this would represents a 300% return in 1 month. Not bad...

This is time to accumulate and i think it's a good deal at 0,065. Put your bids and be patient. Many are still willing to sell at that price as they probably bought this one at about 0,03 when everything looked bad for them. Remember that this is pure speculation DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE. Even 2500$ will get you 40,000 shares...

For all other companies it's a wait and see game. Do not forget to put your stop losses just in case it turns sour...

Good week and watch for trend alerts.

This is Earnings season !

How will market react ??? What is to expect from companies ???

LVS (NYSE): will be a better quarter than Q2 even if i do not expect a profit. Should be a lot better than 137.5 M$ loss in Q2. Should be announced end of october.

ETFC (NYSE): Could be another bad quarter considering provision for losses on mortgages but we can see light at the end of the tunnel as i expect the % to decrease. The return on the market by traders will increase their revenues much more than anticipated.

NRI (TSE): Nothing will happen until fda answer on Pennsaid. I expect a positive answer but not unconditional. It should also be their best quarter ever.

RF (NYSE): I would not be surprise by a good quarter and especially a good 2010 forecast as the recession will end gradually over the next 6-12 months. Provisions will be less and profit up.

DAN (NYSE): Good quarter but outlook will still show lack of spending for cars from customers. I expect good results and maybe close to a profit.

PXLW(NYSE): will again show improvement on profit even if sales are not there yet.

TVI(TSE): This one could be the surprise of this earning season. With 4 ore shipments this quarter it could be their best quarter ever and a great profit. This one could double when numbers will be published.

OCNF(NYSE): Still bumpy...Hard to figure out results as they are renting ships. They have a good balance sheet and i still expect some interesting results. But i do not expect great surprise until 2010. It is still time to accumulate their shares.

WCS.A (TSE): They face same problems and results than DAN (NYSE) and i do not expect great results until 2010.

Some more stocks will be put on my radar screen this week as we do have some movers. But too early to say if it is on momentum or real profit. Stay tune...

Enjoy the bumpy ride for the next couple of weeks and it all starts with Alcoa being the first to announce their results. Then the market will find it's direction. I do expect some kind of surprise and good 2010 outlook. If that is the case, that will indicate a very good rally to come.

Have fun

ALERTE LVS (NYSE)

Could be breaking his 14,80 support . If it does with good volume early this morning , then get ready for 12$ to 13$.

This could represent a great buy opportunity either mid day or monday depending on the job report.

MARKET CORRECTION

As expected we started the real correction today and could well be worst tomorrow.

Just be carefull as market could open higher giving the impression it will rally. WAIT i have seen many rapid change in direction especially during the week end and often touching the bottom only mid day on monday.

So be patient, and enjoy the week-end. There will be plenty of good deal as it is only a correction where tons of profit has been realized. Good stock will go back to their real value.