Good morning,
As expected LVS (NYSE) got ok for their Honk Kong ipo. Expect a good share rise for the coming days and a small step back at 20$. Buy signal 16.10$ after 10:00 am as market could be a bit strange in early trading.
NRI (TSX) on 3 days left before approval or rejection from FDA. No runnup seen yet indicating 2 things: no leaks and buyers are wating on the sideline to get in as soon as answer is received. Expect a halt trading on tuesday or if not halted tuesday, news could be bad. If it is the case i expect shares to fall to as low as 0,085 after trading resume or hit over 0,70 if news are good. Could be a good idea to put your orders at 0,09 if you want to play the market as shares will get back to 0,20 within a week. This company will not go belly up even if news are not good as many more products are coming.
Have a good day
vendredi 30 octobre 2009
jeudi 29 octobre 2009
LVS ETFC DAN TVI
I hope you took some of the sitting cash to buy some more LVS (NYSE) because as expected, they are the gambling leaders and now get ready for the jump to a new 52 weeks high no later than monday or tuesday when IPO is accepted by Hong Kong regulators.
I think we will even get the answer tomorrow after market close.
If approved, stock will skyrocket by another 1,75$ then end of november it will be over 21$ to end up the year close to 35$.
Look at their results carefully and you will see that Wynn (NYSE) did had a loss when LVS generated a 0,03 cents profit. HUGE difference. Get ready for profit taking near mid december.
ETFC(NASDAQ) Same story. After releasing their numbers, a bear trap was set when it hit less than 1,50$. Now shorts are trying to cover their back and buying back. When you look at the results you will discover that even if losses seem to be phenomenal, they only loss 59M$ being far less than expected. Also their tier 1 ratio is now in the 'well capitalized area' meaning a target war could start rapidly between to major players: TD Ameritrade and Schwabs and guess who will get the most: the one who owns shares TODAY. This is a great opportunity to make a fantastic profit in only a matter of 2-3 months. I am expecting a take over bid by TD ameritrade at about 2,25$ the Schwab will win it at 3$. So it could be a double in only 90 days as it will probably be done before xmas to end the year doing some 'window dressing'. Both of them have made good profit and for example Ameritrade is sitting on cash in excess of 1,4B$. Get ready for a great ride.
DAN (NYSE) This one is ready to fly. Most car companies have indicated an increase in sales. But have you seen a dealer parking lot recently??? THEY DON'T HAVE INVENTORY. So what's next if they want to sell: They have to build cars and believe me they will build them as soon as possible. So who will benefit: Joe around the corner or a 22,000 employees company?
DAN has over 22,000 employees around the world and are ready to ship parts needed and they will.
Expect a major (i mean MAJOR) increase in that stock even if 3rd quarter numbers are not good next week. If it is the case, the share will probably goes to 4,90$ to 5,30$ and that will be another good example of a bear trap and short activity. GET RADY TO GET IN. At that price it will be a bargain. Now estimating july 2010 share value well above 10$.
On TVI (TSX) side, they completed their 8th ore shipment this week and increased their total $ received per shipment to 7,2M$ as expected as copper price still rise. I would not be surprised also to see some news about refinancing coming aroudn november 15th right after their 3rd quarter results indicating a new record revenue. Expect this one to climb well over 0,30$ early next year.
Enjoy your evening
François
I think we will even get the answer tomorrow after market close.
If approved, stock will skyrocket by another 1,75$ then end of november it will be over 21$ to end up the year close to 35$.
Look at their results carefully and you will see that Wynn (NYSE) did had a loss when LVS generated a 0,03 cents profit. HUGE difference. Get ready for profit taking near mid december.
ETFC(NASDAQ) Same story. After releasing their numbers, a bear trap was set when it hit less than 1,50$. Now shorts are trying to cover their back and buying back. When you look at the results you will discover that even if losses seem to be phenomenal, they only loss 59M$ being far less than expected. Also their tier 1 ratio is now in the 'well capitalized area' meaning a target war could start rapidly between to major players: TD Ameritrade and Schwabs and guess who will get the most: the one who owns shares TODAY. This is a great opportunity to make a fantastic profit in only a matter of 2-3 months. I am expecting a take over bid by TD ameritrade at about 2,25$ the Schwab will win it at 3$. So it could be a double in only 90 days as it will probably be done before xmas to end the year doing some 'window dressing'. Both of them have made good profit and for example Ameritrade is sitting on cash in excess of 1,4B$. Get ready for a great ride.
DAN (NYSE) This one is ready to fly. Most car companies have indicated an increase in sales. But have you seen a dealer parking lot recently??? THEY DON'T HAVE INVENTORY. So what's next if they want to sell: They have to build cars and believe me they will build them as soon as possible. So who will benefit: Joe around the corner or a 22,000 employees company?
DAN has over 22,000 employees around the world and are ready to ship parts needed and they will.
Expect a major (i mean MAJOR) increase in that stock even if 3rd quarter numbers are not good next week. If it is the case, the share will probably goes to 4,90$ to 5,30$ and that will be another good example of a bear trap and short activity. GET RADY TO GET IN. At that price it will be a bargain. Now estimating july 2010 share value well above 10$.
On TVI (TSX) side, they completed their 8th ore shipment this week and increased their total $ received per shipment to 7,2M$ as expected as copper price still rise. I would not be surprised also to see some news about refinancing coming aroudn november 15th right after their 3rd quarter results indicating a new record revenue. Expect this one to climb well over 0,30$ early next year.
Enjoy your evening
François
mercredi 28 octobre 2009
where do we stand
LVS (NYSE) Has reached as expected 17,25 then dropped passed his support at 14,95. Unless you believe their results willl be bad and that they will not have their financing to complete their projects and that their IPO will be bad, it is now well priced to make some great profit. Do not throw all your money at once but buy gradually.
ONCF (NYSE) Now figuring into my mystery portfolio. Great balance sheet and still no confidence from market. Under 1$ it has now reach the point where major players are out. Big decision to take on this one. Take the losses or hang on to it and maybe even buy some more to decrease average price.
DAN(NYSE) getting ready to disclose 3rd quarter results and being hit big some kind of sell off. Not great volume so could be only profit taking. I do expect a good recovery on DAN.
PXLW (NASDAQ) What a bad week for a company that is still profitable this year. Not too many can say the same. I am still very confident about this one. Remember that they only have 13M shares on the market and this could explain volatility.
ETFC (NASDAQ) Results were not that bad but it is back to is support. Still lots of rumours about a take over that could send back the shares to about 2,65$. I would not sell my positions right now.
NRI( TO) That is the story of the week. In 5 minutes it went from 0,32 to 0,13 to get back into 0,30 territory and all of this without news. Many investors decided to get out before next week announcement but there were simply no buyers dropping the price to almost 1 year low...Still holding some position on this one but large chunk was eaten by stop loss orders. Somebody somewhere did make a lot of money with my shares...
The market is going nowhere as even if news are not bad, they are not great either. We will need to see improvement on the spending side to finally get into high gear recovery. Until then expect great volatility.
Have a good one
ONCF (NYSE) Now figuring into my mystery portfolio. Great balance sheet and still no confidence from market. Under 1$ it has now reach the point where major players are out. Big decision to take on this one. Take the losses or hang on to it and maybe even buy some more to decrease average price.
DAN(NYSE) getting ready to disclose 3rd quarter results and being hit big some kind of sell off. Not great volume so could be only profit taking. I do expect a good recovery on DAN.
PXLW (NASDAQ) What a bad week for a company that is still profitable this year. Not too many can say the same. I am still very confident about this one. Remember that they only have 13M shares on the market and this could explain volatility.
ETFC (NASDAQ) Results were not that bad but it is back to is support. Still lots of rumours about a take over that could send back the shares to about 2,65$. I would not sell my positions right now.
NRI( TO) That is the story of the week. In 5 minutes it went from 0,32 to 0,13 to get back into 0,30 territory and all of this without news. Many investors decided to get out before next week announcement but there were simply no buyers dropping the price to almost 1 year low...Still holding some position on this one but large chunk was eaten by stop loss orders. Somebody somewhere did make a lot of money with my shares...
The market is going nowhere as even if news are not bad, they are not great either. We will need to see improvement on the spending side to finally get into high gear recovery. Until then expect great volatility.
Have a good one
jeudi 22 octobre 2009
ALERT DAN
DAN (NYSE) is en route for his resistance of 7,45$.
If it breaks 7,59$ this will be a new buy signal if volume is there (over 1M shares). Be carefull about bull trap
If it breaks 7,59$ this will be a new buy signal if volume is there (over 1M shares). Be carefull about bull trap
mercredi 21 octobre 2009
ALERT LVS
LVS (NYSE) is getting close to it's support at 15,97$. If it goes under 15,80$ get ready for another drop to about 14,50$.
I know i have mentionned it should get back to 17$ early this week but i am suspecting a hug increase in short selling as volume is not there and 3 majors blocks were sold at the end of the day almost at the same time WFC got rated sell. This is sometimes seen as negative momentum and for short sellers it is a great opportunity to benefit from market frenzy and fear.
If it goes to a low level like taht, it would be a great opportunity to buy some more unless something really bad is brewing and this, i do not believe. With all that's coming and LVS being the biggest casino operator, and having fixed (or close to) their debt, i still believe in 35$ end of the year.
I know i have mentionned it should get back to 17$ early this week but i am suspecting a hug increase in short selling as volume is not there and 3 majors blocks were sold at the end of the day almost at the same time WFC got rated sell. This is sometimes seen as negative momentum and for short sellers it is a great opportunity to benefit from market frenzy and fear.
If it goes to a low level like taht, it would be a great opportunity to buy some more unless something really bad is brewing and this, i do not believe. With all that's coming and LVS being the biggest casino operator, and having fixed (or close to) their debt, i still believe in 35$ end of the year.
mardi 20 octobre 2009
ALERT PXLW NRI TVI
PXLW (NYSE) Today numbers were a bit disappointing but volume was not that bad. Shares went down to 3,05 being a bear trap or condition named oversold. I expect a rebound and at least it is a good time to acculmulate. The numbers when looked up carefully are very good and i expect a bounce back well above 4$ within 3 weeks. Be patient, rewards will come.
NRI (TSX): It's on the move (unless it is a bull trap or overbought). In my opinion, volume as not picked up yet enough and will increase by probably 3-4 times within the next 5 trading days. Compare to last time when approaching FDA approval date, it is well in advance and volume has just start to pick up. Remember to cast in you sell orders at at level where you make a profit even if not approved. But there is still 10 trading days before approval. If the day prior approval you see a surge in stock price, could mean unconditionnal approval as there are always leaks both ways (look at the charts for august 4th approval date when shares startsed to tumble well before announcement) .
TVI (TSE) With incident in Australia mine, the big news was concerning uraniu price but it will also create a gap of 50,000 tons of copper that will reflect on next week copper price. I would not be surprised to see TVI gain 1 or 2 cents. 2 cents is almost 30% gain). If you want to play this baby, put in your 0,07 orders tonight as i think it will be too late tomorrow. If you enter your orders at 0,07, do not changed them tomorrow morning as it couls also be a bull trap. The difference between mometum and bull trap is that a bull trap has lot more sellers than buyers. Momentum is the opposite. Go to level 2 orders and check it out carefully when market open NOT BEFORE as sometimes traders will send in large orders and then remove them right before market open.
NRI (TSX): It's on the move (unless it is a bull trap or overbought). In my opinion, volume as not picked up yet enough and will increase by probably 3-4 times within the next 5 trading days. Compare to last time when approaching FDA approval date, it is well in advance and volume has just start to pick up. Remember to cast in you sell orders at at level where you make a profit even if not approved. But there is still 10 trading days before approval. If the day prior approval you see a surge in stock price, could mean unconditionnal approval as there are always leaks both ways (look at the charts for august 4th approval date when shares startsed to tumble well before announcement) .
TVI (TSE) With incident in Australia mine, the big news was concerning uraniu price but it will also create a gap of 50,000 tons of copper that will reflect on next week copper price. I would not be surprised to see TVI gain 1 or 2 cents. 2 cents is almost 30% gain). If you want to play this baby, put in your 0,07 orders tonight as i think it will be too late tomorrow. If you enter your orders at 0,07, do not changed them tomorrow morning as it couls also be a bull trap. The difference between mometum and bull trap is that a bull trap has lot more sellers than buyers. Momentum is the opposite. Go to level 2 orders and check it out carefully when market open NOT BEFORE as sometimes traders will send in large orders and then remove them right before market open.
lundi 19 octobre 2009
TVI What's going on
Very interesting company.
They never did over 0,40 in the past but that could change easily. (they hit 0,39 in 2004)
To avoid going bankrupt they had financed their company on high interest loand and even loadns from company officers and gave lots of warrant at an averaging price of 0,016.
Their total shares outsanding fully diluted is over 500M explaining in part their difficulties to move higher. But many who have exercised their warrants must have already taken their profit as i saw many huge stock blocks going on sale recently.
Other problem is that their finances were so bad, they are reporting their results with the mention 'Going concern' forcing them to under evaluate their company value. (Please read quarter reports)
They also settled a court action by stock owners between 2006-2007.
They still have a cumulated deficit of 32M and until april of this year their future was in jeopardy. But they stopped the mine commisionning and started shipping their first 6M$ copper concentrate.
Their financing obtained in February 2009 also is of concern with a 24% annual interest rate. Do not forget it was at the peek of credit freeze.
NOW : THE POSITIVE SIDE
They are shipping copper concentrate and copper price went from 1,77 to 2,94 (today london price)
They were shipping every 6 weeks. Now they are shipping every 4 weeks. (1/3 increase)
Their cost per ton is diminishing rapidly NOW 0,58 agaisnt 0,78 /Cu lb eq
Tons of ore processed per day increase from 90 to 104 Tons per quarter (11% increase)
Copper recovery increased from 61% to 87% (almost 40% increase in processes)
Still unclear as to what is happening to gold and silver recovered during process.
MY FORECAST:
1) Copper will still rise. I expect another 25% during 2010 (3,75$ per pound)
2) Shipments will continue on schedule for a total of 75,000 DMT in 2010
3) They will refinance their debt to a much reasonnable level (9-12%)
4) They will generate enough cash flow to eliminate a good chunk of their debt
5) They will expand their mines again in 2010 using cash flow NOT new stock
6) I expect annual sales of 120M$ in 2010
7) I expect net income per share of 0,14 or better in 2010
8) Share price of 0,42 during 2010 based upon a very very low 3 X net earnings. This is very low but with so many warrants and 500M shares it will take some time before hitting the 1$ mark.
To me this is a BUY but you must understand that it is a penny stock on which MAYBE we need to know more. Normally MARKET KNOWS IT ALL and that stock still being in the 0,06-0,07 indicates that their maybe still a problem or MAYBE nobody knows yet about this company...
In any case, could be a very good play if you have some money that you could loose without loosing sleep.
Please do your own due diligence on this one and never invest more that cou can afford to loose.
Have a great evening
They never did over 0,40 in the past but that could change easily. (they hit 0,39 in 2004)
To avoid going bankrupt they had financed their company on high interest loand and even loadns from company officers and gave lots of warrant at an averaging price of 0,016.
Their total shares outsanding fully diluted is over 500M explaining in part their difficulties to move higher. But many who have exercised their warrants must have already taken their profit as i saw many huge stock blocks going on sale recently.
Other problem is that their finances were so bad, they are reporting their results with the mention 'Going concern' forcing them to under evaluate their company value. (Please read quarter reports)
They also settled a court action by stock owners between 2006-2007.
They still have a cumulated deficit of 32M and until april of this year their future was in jeopardy. But they stopped the mine commisionning and started shipping their first 6M$ copper concentrate.
Their financing obtained in February 2009 also is of concern with a 24% annual interest rate. Do not forget it was at the peek of credit freeze.
NOW : THE POSITIVE SIDE
They are shipping copper concentrate and copper price went from 1,77 to 2,94 (today london price)
They were shipping every 6 weeks. Now they are shipping every 4 weeks. (1/3 increase)
Their cost per ton is diminishing rapidly NOW 0,58 agaisnt 0,78 /Cu lb eq
Tons of ore processed per day increase from 90 to 104 Tons per quarter (11% increase)
Copper recovery increased from 61% to 87% (almost 40% increase in processes)
Still unclear as to what is happening to gold and silver recovered during process.
MY FORECAST:
1) Copper will still rise. I expect another 25% during 2010 (3,75$ per pound)
2) Shipments will continue on schedule for a total of 75,000 DMT in 2010
3) They will refinance their debt to a much reasonnable level (9-12%)
4) They will generate enough cash flow to eliminate a good chunk of their debt
5) They will expand their mines again in 2010 using cash flow NOT new stock
6) I expect annual sales of 120M$ in 2010
7) I expect net income per share of 0,14 or better in 2010
8) Share price of 0,42 during 2010 based upon a very very low 3 X net earnings. This is very low but with so many warrants and 500M shares it will take some time before hitting the 1$ mark.
To me this is a BUY but you must understand that it is a penny stock on which MAYBE we need to know more. Normally MARKET KNOWS IT ALL and that stock still being in the 0,06-0,07 indicates that their maybe still a problem or MAYBE nobody knows yet about this company...
In any case, could be a very good play if you have some money that you could loose without loosing sleep.
Please do your own due diligence on this one and never invest more that cou can afford to loose.
Have a great evening
vendredi 16 octobre 2009
ALERT LVS
Now on oversold condition. Should rebound to 17,18$ beginning of next week
Good time to accumulate some more by reinvesting profit taken recently.
Good time to accumulate some more by reinvesting profit taken recently.
ALERT PXLW
After some profit taking, PXLW (NYSE) is reversing his early morning tendancy.
New price target this month of 4,85
New buy signal NOW
New price target this month of 4,85
New buy signal NOW
jeudi 15 octobre 2009
ALERT DAN PXLW ETFC
PXLW (nyse) has one of it's best day in long time very close to a new 52 weeks high. Something is brewing and i suspect good news are coming regarding earnings. BUY on the dip.
DAN (nyse) New buy signal at 7,41$. Again good results will have it sky rocket (remember cash for clunkers...May have had a major impact)
ETFC (nasdaq) New rumors again of a possible take over. Expect major movement in that one and if it's for real, then major profit to be made in that one.
Stay tune for more good new coming soon.
DAN (nyse) New buy signal at 7,41$. Again good results will have it sky rocket (remember cash for clunkers...May have had a major impact)
ETFC (nasdaq) New rumors again of a possible take over. Expect major movement in that one and if it's for real, then major profit to be made in that one.
Stay tune for more good new coming soon.
mercredi 14 octobre 2009
Finally !
Dow finally broke the 10,000 barrier. What does it means: if next 2 weeks earnings continue on the same trend we have seen with Alcoa Intel, Jp Morgan etc, well we are in for a very nice rally. That does not mean there will be no bumps, but we could think of a 10,750 DOW end of december.
For companies that i follow here are the recaps:
LVS (NYSE) IPO now in november. Will decrease my estimate to 35$ end of december. Still a lot of resistance at 18$ but once broken expect 23-25$ rapidly. Next buy signal is: 19,57$
DAN (NYSE) : For this one it's a question of when and not if. Should be flying (if earnings are good) to 10$ to 12$ end of this year. But they need growth not expenses cut. Next buy signal is: 7,71$
PXLW (NYSE): After recent months ride, expect a really good one. Last quarter they announce profit when everybody expected them to be negative. Their guidance is not precise enough to have a taste of what's coming. I expect 4,75$ if results are good. Next buy signal is: NOW
ETFC (NASDAQ): This could be a shocker. It is trading almost flat but they will deliver reasonable results. So expect a spike about 0,50 to 0,75 after results. Next buy signal is: 1,83
NRI (TSE): only a matter of days to know where it will be going. FDA expected on nov 4th and then, if approved, expect 1,00 to 1,25 and if not, well how about 0,11. PURE speculation stock but could be very interesting. Next buy signal is: 0,37
TVI (TSE): Again, probably too late to buy at 0,065 as there is too many order already (but even 0,07 is not bad). With copper price going up, shipments of ore every 4 weeks, this company will end up october with a share value less than 1/4 of their annual sales...It does not make any sense and big players will find it out.Expect 0,125 cents end of december unless there is something really bad that i do not know about them. Next buy signal is: NOW
BPOP (NASDAQ): Due for earning tomorrow. Results will be ok and previsions will be a lot better as situation improves. This is what's going to make that stock move higher NOT the results. Being #1 bank in Puerto Rico (by assets value) it could achieve a major rebound until end of this year. Maybe optimistic but 5$ does not sound bad for this one. Next buy signal is: 2,91
FITB (NASDAQ) I am still out even if i think one could be the next Wells Fargo. The problem is stock has no direction and trading sideline. It will explode but even if i think it could be up, i do remember that last quarter they had a partnership establish for one of their division that generated lots of profit. This will not happen this quarter so on that one i do not know. One think is sure, 3rd quarter will gives a good idea of where it is going. Be carefull about overbuy reaction and wait for stabilisation after it's next move. Next buy signal is: HOLD
OCNF (NASDAQ) It is still to accumulate on this one. This is a long shot and even if i would not buy tons of it, i would go gradually with the dips. To me it is still a buy and i expect 1,75 end of this year. Next buy signal is: 1,31
PRP(TSE) NEW ONE.... Again in the penny stock arena but this is the leader of his domain. They had major financial problems this year but were named the leading tech company in Canada regarding growth over the years. With the move they did to raise money and orders still coming in, there is no doubt it will eventually be really profitable but until then it will stay in the penny stock range. I would play a bit on this one and would not be surprise to see gradually improve to the 1$ level within a year. If it does , it is a 500% return. But again DO NOT PUT ALL your $$$ in this baby. It could burn you badly. This is a penny stock and must be 'play' money only. Next buy signal is: 0,215
This week-end i will go in depth on TVI trying to find out the reasons why it is so low and the real expectations of this company.
Have a good evening
For companies that i follow here are the recaps:
LVS (NYSE) IPO now in november. Will decrease my estimate to 35$ end of december. Still a lot of resistance at 18$ but once broken expect 23-25$ rapidly. Next buy signal is: 19,57$
DAN (NYSE) : For this one it's a question of when and not if. Should be flying (if earnings are good) to 10$ to 12$ end of this year. But they need growth not expenses cut. Next buy signal is: 7,71$
PXLW (NYSE): After recent months ride, expect a really good one. Last quarter they announce profit when everybody expected them to be negative. Their guidance is not precise enough to have a taste of what's coming. I expect 4,75$ if results are good. Next buy signal is: NOW
ETFC (NASDAQ): This could be a shocker. It is trading almost flat but they will deliver reasonable results. So expect a spike about 0,50 to 0,75 after results. Next buy signal is: 1,83
NRI (TSE): only a matter of days to know where it will be going. FDA expected on nov 4th and then, if approved, expect 1,00 to 1,25 and if not, well how about 0,11. PURE speculation stock but could be very interesting. Next buy signal is: 0,37
TVI (TSE): Again, probably too late to buy at 0,065 as there is too many order already (but even 0,07 is not bad). With copper price going up, shipments of ore every 4 weeks, this company will end up october with a share value less than 1/4 of their annual sales...It does not make any sense and big players will find it out.Expect 0,125 cents end of december unless there is something really bad that i do not know about them. Next buy signal is: NOW
BPOP (NASDAQ): Due for earning tomorrow. Results will be ok and previsions will be a lot better as situation improves. This is what's going to make that stock move higher NOT the results. Being #1 bank in Puerto Rico (by assets value) it could achieve a major rebound until end of this year. Maybe optimistic but 5$ does not sound bad for this one. Next buy signal is: 2,91
FITB (NASDAQ) I am still out even if i think one could be the next Wells Fargo. The problem is stock has no direction and trading sideline. It will explode but even if i think it could be up, i do remember that last quarter they had a partnership establish for one of their division that generated lots of profit. This will not happen this quarter so on that one i do not know. One think is sure, 3rd quarter will gives a good idea of where it is going. Be carefull about overbuy reaction and wait for stabilisation after it's next move. Next buy signal is: HOLD
OCNF (NASDAQ) It is still to accumulate on this one. This is a long shot and even if i would not buy tons of it, i would go gradually with the dips. To me it is still a buy and i expect 1,75 end of this year. Next buy signal is: 1,31
PRP(TSE) NEW ONE.... Again in the penny stock arena but this is the leader of his domain. They had major financial problems this year but were named the leading tech company in Canada regarding growth over the years. With the move they did to raise money and orders still coming in, there is no doubt it will eventually be really profitable but until then it will stay in the penny stock range. I would play a bit on this one and would not be surprise to see gradually improve to the 1$ level within a year. If it does , it is a 500% return. But again DO NOT PUT ALL your $$$ in this baby. It could burn you badly. This is a penny stock and must be 'play' money only. Next buy signal is: 0,215
This week-end i will go in depth on TVI trying to find out the reasons why it is so low and the real expectations of this company.
Have a good evening
lundi 12 octobre 2009
So where do we stand ?
Dow has flirted with the 10,000 and no doubt it will break it if results coming are good and if FORECAST revenues are on the rise. There is no way market will climb again if expected 4th quarter revenues are revised lower. Companies have made it ok so far but most of them from cuts in spending. Now is time for growth.
I expect banks to be better than expected especially the big one like Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE)and some surprises in manufacturing goods. Later this week we will see manufacturing capacity % and i expect a rise signaling some growth in that area. This is the base for any major recovery for the next 2 quarters.
On metals, prices are increasing and this tells me there is more demand for basic stuff. This is another good signal for the coming months.
So this week is a crucial one for market trend as we are exiting the market correction from the last 2 weeks ( almost 6% as expected in the last 10 trading days when considering intraday)
On all companies that i have under the radar, TVI (TSE) is at the moment the one that i suspect is ready for good increase. Their revenus will be around 150% of what they were in the last quarter and projections will be higher than originally thought. I wouldl not be surprise to see their share price goes as high as 0,20 cents after their results are published around november 13th to 16th. They will probably announce also that they have refinanced their debt reducing their interest expenses and those 2 factors combined will boost that company a lot. If they reach 0,20 cents on nov 16th, this would represents a 300% return in 1 month. Not bad...
This is time to accumulate and i think it's a good deal at 0,065. Put your bids and be patient. Many are still willing to sell at that price as they probably bought this one at about 0,03 when everything looked bad for them. Remember that this is pure speculation DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE. Even 2500$ will get you 40,000 shares...
For all other companies it's a wait and see game. Do not forget to put your stop losses just in case it turns sour...
Good week and watch for trend alerts.
I expect banks to be better than expected especially the big one like Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE)and some surprises in manufacturing goods. Later this week we will see manufacturing capacity % and i expect a rise signaling some growth in that area. This is the base for any major recovery for the next 2 quarters.
On metals, prices are increasing and this tells me there is more demand for basic stuff. This is another good signal for the coming months.
So this week is a crucial one for market trend as we are exiting the market correction from the last 2 weeks ( almost 6% as expected in the last 10 trading days when considering intraday)
On all companies that i have under the radar, TVI (TSE) is at the moment the one that i suspect is ready for good increase. Their revenus will be around 150% of what they were in the last quarter and projections will be higher than originally thought. I wouldl not be surprise to see their share price goes as high as 0,20 cents after their results are published around november 13th to 16th. They will probably announce also that they have refinanced their debt reducing their interest expenses and those 2 factors combined will boost that company a lot. If they reach 0,20 cents on nov 16th, this would represents a 300% return in 1 month. Not bad...
This is time to accumulate and i think it's a good deal at 0,065. Put your bids and be patient. Many are still willing to sell at that price as they probably bought this one at about 0,03 when everything looked bad for them. Remember that this is pure speculation DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE. Even 2500$ will get you 40,000 shares...
For all other companies it's a wait and see game. Do not forget to put your stop losses just in case it turns sour...
Good week and watch for trend alerts.
lundi 5 octobre 2009
This is Earnings season !
How will market react ??? What is to expect from companies ???
LVS (NYSE): will be a better quarter than Q2 even if i do not expect a profit. Should be a lot better than 137.5 M$ loss in Q2. Should be announced end of october.
ETFC (NYSE): Could be another bad quarter considering provision for losses on mortgages but we can see light at the end of the tunnel as i expect the % to decrease. The return on the market by traders will increase their revenues much more than anticipated.
NRI (TSE): Nothing will happen until fda answer on Pennsaid. I expect a positive answer but not unconditional. It should also be their best quarter ever.
RF (NYSE): I would not be surprise by a good quarter and especially a good 2010 forecast as the recession will end gradually over the next 6-12 months. Provisions will be less and profit up.
DAN (NYSE): Good quarter but outlook will still show lack of spending for cars from customers. I expect good results and maybe close to a profit.
PXLW(NYSE): will again show improvement on profit even if sales are not there yet.
TVI(TSE): This one could be the surprise of this earning season. With 4 ore shipments this quarter it could be their best quarter ever and a great profit. This one could double when numbers will be published.
OCNF(NYSE): Still bumpy...Hard to figure out results as they are renting ships. They have a good balance sheet and i still expect some interesting results. But i do not expect great surprise until 2010. It is still time to accumulate their shares.
WCS.A (TSE): They face same problems and results than DAN (NYSE) and i do not expect great results until 2010.
Some more stocks will be put on my radar screen this week as we do have some movers. But too early to say if it is on momentum or real profit. Stay tune...
Enjoy the bumpy ride for the next couple of weeks and it all starts with Alcoa being the first to announce their results. Then the market will find it's direction. I do expect some kind of surprise and good 2010 outlook. If that is the case, that will indicate a very good rally to come.
Have fun
LVS (NYSE): will be a better quarter than Q2 even if i do not expect a profit. Should be a lot better than 137.5 M$ loss in Q2. Should be announced end of october.
ETFC (NYSE): Could be another bad quarter considering provision for losses on mortgages but we can see light at the end of the tunnel as i expect the % to decrease. The return on the market by traders will increase their revenues much more than anticipated.
NRI (TSE): Nothing will happen until fda answer on Pennsaid. I expect a positive answer but not unconditional. It should also be their best quarter ever.
RF (NYSE): I would not be surprise by a good quarter and especially a good 2010 forecast as the recession will end gradually over the next 6-12 months. Provisions will be less and profit up.
DAN (NYSE): Good quarter but outlook will still show lack of spending for cars from customers. I expect good results and maybe close to a profit.
PXLW(NYSE): will again show improvement on profit even if sales are not there yet.
TVI(TSE): This one could be the surprise of this earning season. With 4 ore shipments this quarter it could be their best quarter ever and a great profit. This one could double when numbers will be published.
OCNF(NYSE): Still bumpy...Hard to figure out results as they are renting ships. They have a good balance sheet and i still expect some interesting results. But i do not expect great surprise until 2010. It is still time to accumulate their shares.
WCS.A (TSE): They face same problems and results than DAN (NYSE) and i do not expect great results until 2010.
Some more stocks will be put on my radar screen this week as we do have some movers. But too early to say if it is on momentum or real profit. Stay tune...
Enjoy the bumpy ride for the next couple of weeks and it all starts with Alcoa being the first to announce their results. Then the market will find it's direction. I do expect some kind of surprise and good 2010 outlook. If that is the case, that will indicate a very good rally to come.
Have fun
vendredi 2 octobre 2009
ALERTE LVS (NYSE)
Could be breaking his 14,80 support . If it does with good volume early this morning , then get ready for 12$ to 13$.
This could represent a great buy opportunity either mid day or monday depending on the job report.
This could represent a great buy opportunity either mid day or monday depending on the job report.
jeudi 1 octobre 2009
MARKET CORRECTION
As expected we started the real correction today and could well be worst tomorrow.
Just be carefull as market could open higher giving the impression it will rally. WAIT i have seen many rapid change in direction especially during the week end and often touching the bottom only mid day on monday.
So be patient, and enjoy the week-end. There will be plenty of good deal as it is only a correction where tons of profit has been realized. Good stock will go back to their real value.
Just be carefull as market could open higher giving the impression it will rally. WAIT i have seen many rapid change in direction especially during the week end and often touching the bottom only mid day on monday.
So be patient, and enjoy the week-end. There will be plenty of good deal as it is only a correction where tons of profit has been realized. Good stock will go back to their real value.
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