Did you noticed that there are many buyers out there that will buy TVI shares in great volume???
On many occasion and again today there are some who are accumulating shares. Today another buyer bought 500K in one transaction. This has happen a lot in the past month.
Do not know who that could be but definitely buyers who have seen the real value of this company and taking opportunity to buy at a deep discount.
lundi 29 novembre 2010
ALERT PRP
What a great news today regarding PRP. THeir agreement will definitely help shares to get back to where they were.
As usual take your profit when possible and close to 50% since alst week is great. Now it all depends upon your game plan...
As usual take your profit when possible and close to 50% since alst week is great. Now it all depends upon your game plan...
dimanche 28 novembre 2010
UPDATE DAN
With auto sales due to be release this week, i would not be surprised to see DAN get another good gain as after all they are profiting from sales increases from most auto manufacturers.
DAN is still a BUY
DAN is still a BUY
mercredi 24 novembre 2010
UPDATE on MEGA BRANDS
Q4 is now half completed and orders for Mega Brands must already be almost in (for delivery in Q4) except for some last minute shipping.
When you look at Q3 results you find many interesting points:
1) Their gross profit margin has increased by 10 points
2) Their sales have increase by about 10%
3) Their interest expenses have diminished dramatically
So my expectations for Q4 2010 are the following:
Q4 net sales 115M$
Gross profit 46M$
Net Earnings 13M$
EPS 0,04
If there numbers would be confirmed, it would mean a 2010 EPS of about 0,54 including a one-time item for 140M$. When excluded, EPS would be nil.
But this is not the point as many expenses in 2010 were related to restructuration and does not give justice to MB.
That is one of the reason this company is one of my top pick for 2010 and 2011. It has turned the corner and this company will revive and re-acquaint its old great reputation that has begun with Ritvik, Mega Blok then Mega Brand.
They are a proud company with proud owners that only did one mistake and paid dearly for it.
I expect 2011 to be a great year now that those problems are gone and that confidence is coming back from retail companies allowing for more shelve space.
I think that the true value of this company is a 500M$ annual sales corporation with a 55M to 70M in net earnings giving them a 0,18 to 0,20 EPS. If share value is based as their competitors (between 12 and 14 times earnings) we have in front of us a company that shares should increase to 2,16$ to be conservative and 2,80$ if we are greedy.
So based upon actual price of 0,59 it is a great opportunity.
As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and do your own DD before investing.
When you look at Q3 results you find many interesting points:
1) Their gross profit margin has increased by 10 points
2) Their sales have increase by about 10%
3) Their interest expenses have diminished dramatically
So my expectations for Q4 2010 are the following:
Q4 net sales 115M$
Gross profit 46M$
Net Earnings 13M$
EPS 0,04
If there numbers would be confirmed, it would mean a 2010 EPS of about 0,54 including a one-time item for 140M$. When excluded, EPS would be nil.
But this is not the point as many expenses in 2010 were related to restructuration and does not give justice to MB.
That is one of the reason this company is one of my top pick for 2010 and 2011. It has turned the corner and this company will revive and re-acquaint its old great reputation that has begun with Ritvik, Mega Blok then Mega Brand.
They are a proud company with proud owners that only did one mistake and paid dearly for it.
I expect 2011 to be a great year now that those problems are gone and that confidence is coming back from retail companies allowing for more shelve space.
I think that the true value of this company is a 500M$ annual sales corporation with a 55M to 70M in net earnings giving them a 0,18 to 0,20 EPS. If share value is based as their competitors (between 12 and 14 times earnings) we have in front of us a company that shares should increase to 2,16$ to be conservative and 2,80$ if we are greedy.
So based upon actual price of 0,59 it is a great opportunity.
As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and do your own DD before investing.
Thanksgiving
I will use this occasion to wish all my american friends an happy and great thanksgiving.
Hope you all enjoy
François
Hope you all enjoy
François
UPDATE TVI Q3
TVI report another great quarter.
As expected TVI did a 0,006 per share net profit and this is very good when you have to remember that they are drilling and exploration everywhere possible in the vicinity of Canatuan in a way to increase mine life and keep expenses at the minimum for the short term.
Sure revenues are down compared to last year because of 2 shipments instead of 3.5 (part of one shipment was included in Q3 last year plus 3 regular shipments)
But there are some very interesting points in Q3 reports.
1) Administrative and general cost have decreased by almost 1/3
2) Interest have been reduced by close to 80% due to repayment of shark loan
3) Exploration cost have increased by 800% proving that TVI is working 24/7 to increase mine life
4) They have managed to get operational credit margin at very good interest %. They are building a great credit history with lenders.
5) Their accumulated deficit is now only 2,9M$ and going down every quarter and only about 7,9M in SHORT term debt. That is excellent
6) Still have over 4,4M$ in cash at the end of Q3 BUT TVI is not going to act like a bank. They definitely need the money to drill, explore and then explore and drill. It would not be worthy to accumulate cash to the expense of future growth. It is safe for them to have some (4M$ is largely enough) but more than that could be avoiding them to explore and expand company size. For the same reason do not expect dividend or share buyback at this time.
7) Their Debt to equity is in great shape as is their debt to assets ratio.
But what is interesting investors right now is not what they actually are able to produce at Canatuan but mainly what the next projects are going to be.
They are still working on Balabag. I do not think they are still drilling to find the minimum 50,000 ounces core area but to confirm a lot more interesting area where more than 50,000 ounces exist. They do not need more than the original 50K to start up their bootstrap operations but how about 25% or 50% more…in the same core area. That would be very nice. Oh and by the way do they need a 43-11 to drill and start a bootstrap operation? I do not think so. The 43-101 is needed to allow TVI to mention their confirmed resources not to drill them. Naturally they will provide one sometimes in 2011 to allow them the use of the ‘proven resources’ wording. It they had to go on the market to obtain financing it would be a complete story but that is one the beauty of TVI as they will not need any outside financing to do a bootstrap mine. Initial confirmed resources in 2008 were over 200K ounces and feasibility study was for a full scale gold mine. So the only variable that has changed is the scale of the start-up mine. If they were to go on a full scale, they would probably have to either issue more shares or get some large financing none of which we are interested in at this time.
How about Siennalynn? This area being 4 times larger than actual Canatuan, it could be easily thought that for same quality of ore all around the area it would mean 20 years mine life. Also remember that this new area is almost ready and drilling is already happening there. So what will get out of there? I think it will be great news near the end of Q2 2011 or early Q2 2011.
Zinc could add on some extra cash whenever the correct recipe is found and acceptable results achieve. TVI is not a zinc mining company but why loose it if you can increase copper % and get $$$ for the sub product!
Another surprise could be some interesting results from Dacon jv deal that occurred in January 2010. It has been really quiet on this partnership and whenever it is very quiet it generally means something is coming.
But I think the biggest and more interesting project on a long term scale is Tamarok and drilling will begin in early 2011 as airborne surveys have already begins.
When you look at all these different projects on the table it would be totally unfair to pretend that none of them will be successful.
Remember also that 7 more drills are coming back from the original buyer that desisted himself. So wherever those drills will go they will accelerate their projects.
They will get the zinc separation process right, (this would add up another 10M$ on their yearly revenues and probably another 4-5M$ in net profit)
They will get Balabag up and running (adding another 10-15M$ in revenues and 3-4M$ in net profit)
They will enhance mine life by at least another 10 years with the new Siennalynn project and they have mentioned often it will be stage by stage as the cost of a 43-101 to prove a mine life extension of 10 years at once could be very high But this one could add another 15-20M$ in yearly revenues and 10M$ in net profit one step at the time.
They will explore and drill Tamarok and do not forget that any type of good news on this one alone could mean significant increase in company value and share price. This is the unknown territory and most probably where great share increase could come from. (as a matter of fact share price could come from any great results from any projects they have right now)
Based upon those estimations even if only 1 project was to be successful in 2011, there is no doubt that TVI would increase substantially their gross revenues and net earnings and if Siennalynn, Balabag and Zinc were all to start producing revenues in 2011, the total 2012 expected revenues could be a lot higher than the actual 2010 revenues. Naturally there is always the mines commissioning that could hit some bumps along the road and this is normal but when you look at the possibilities, this is a fast growing company.
They have also definitely shown their ability to deliver and stay on course, control their costs and achieve sustainable profitability.
They have become a very transparent company (I suspect that they are now keeping some surprises instead of being too transparent) and even great companies do not indicate all of what is happening or everything that is negotiated at the time.
They have turned 180 degrees from an almost dead company to a very profitable one (they were able to spend on new projects only since early July 2010 when previous loan was totally paid for and look at what has been already achieved.
They have attract many new investors from OTCQX (remember those 600K to 1M shares transacted in 1 deal at the time) and imagine what would happen if only 1 of them was an analyst from a hedge fund…that being the case they would probably be looking at 7-10 million shares. I do not believe that any of those transactions were done by investors who do not know what they are doing. They know exactly what they are buying and they will take the time to get those shares at the right price and right before TVI starts its next leg up. Now imagine a listing in Honk Kong…
Talking about edge fund accumulating, it is very important to note that we the retail investors that are accumulating shares are doing it when share price is right meaning that we are not rich enough to buy 500K shares at once at the ask price. We will wait and buy them 5 or 10 or 25 thousands at the time then wait for it to come back a little before putting another order. This is the same when we sell. Nobody would do the mistake of putting on sale 1M shares at market bids. So DO YOU THINK edge funds manager are different? NO they will wait and see scooping the good deals on the market. The only way to have them buy the shares at high prices is stop selling them at the actual price that most investors think are too low. But one thing is sure, if those edge funds start accumulating shares of TVI the ask prices will eventually goes higher and the quantity available at cheaper prices will be eliminated. This is a cat and mouse game and patience is most of the time rewarded when you find a great quality company like TVI with a bright future.
Yes there will be some instability in the market but we must not forget that even 5M shares traded in any given day only represents 1% of the total float leaving room for volatility.
May it goes back to 0,10??? Maybe and yes it represents about 25% less than where TVI was 3 weeks ago but it must be clearly understood that investing into TVI (not day trading) is a long term investment that will be lucrative on the long way. Naturally, nobody should resist cashing in some profit when you achieve your profit target. (nobody makes profit by buying stocks, we all make profit when we sell stocks…) but we have to establish goals whenever we buy in stocks and get ready to have some waiting moments and after all that is one of the reason nobody should invest all their eggs in the same basket and keep their portfolio diversified.
But, TVI is a great play in the mining sector and in a very very active area of the globe: Asia.
So this is where we are now: a waiting game where the believers will keep their stock waiting for the next major NR and there are many to coming within the next 2-3 quarters.
For those who believed in TVI some months ago when the share slipped to 0,075: congratulations you have already made a huge profit.
Where will TVI shares be in 1 year from now: your guess is as good as mine but with all those projects in the bank my answer will be :HIGHER…
As expected TVI did a 0,006 per share net profit and this is very good when you have to remember that they are drilling and exploration everywhere possible in the vicinity of Canatuan in a way to increase mine life and keep expenses at the minimum for the short term.
Sure revenues are down compared to last year because of 2 shipments instead of 3.5 (part of one shipment was included in Q3 last year plus 3 regular shipments)
But there are some very interesting points in Q3 reports.
1) Administrative and general cost have decreased by almost 1/3
2) Interest have been reduced by close to 80% due to repayment of shark loan
3) Exploration cost have increased by 800% proving that TVI is working 24/7 to increase mine life
4) They have managed to get operational credit margin at very good interest %. They are building a great credit history with lenders.
5) Their accumulated deficit is now only 2,9M$ and going down every quarter and only about 7,9M in SHORT term debt. That is excellent
6) Still have over 4,4M$ in cash at the end of Q3 BUT TVI is not going to act like a bank. They definitely need the money to drill, explore and then explore and drill. It would not be worthy to accumulate cash to the expense of future growth. It is safe for them to have some (4M$ is largely enough) but more than that could be avoiding them to explore and expand company size. For the same reason do not expect dividend or share buyback at this time.
7) Their Debt to equity is in great shape as is their debt to assets ratio.
But what is interesting investors right now is not what they actually are able to produce at Canatuan but mainly what the next projects are going to be.
They are still working on Balabag. I do not think they are still drilling to find the minimum 50,000 ounces core area but to confirm a lot more interesting area where more than 50,000 ounces exist. They do not need more than the original 50K to start up their bootstrap operations but how about 25% or 50% more…in the same core area. That would be very nice. Oh and by the way do they need a 43-11 to drill and start a bootstrap operation? I do not think so. The 43-101 is needed to allow TVI to mention their confirmed resources not to drill them. Naturally they will provide one sometimes in 2011 to allow them the use of the ‘proven resources’ wording. It they had to go on the market to obtain financing it would be a complete story but that is one the beauty of TVI as they will not need any outside financing to do a bootstrap mine. Initial confirmed resources in 2008 were over 200K ounces and feasibility study was for a full scale gold mine. So the only variable that has changed is the scale of the start-up mine. If they were to go on a full scale, they would probably have to either issue more shares or get some large financing none of which we are interested in at this time.
How about Siennalynn? This area being 4 times larger than actual Canatuan, it could be easily thought that for same quality of ore all around the area it would mean 20 years mine life. Also remember that this new area is almost ready and drilling is already happening there. So what will get out of there? I think it will be great news near the end of Q2 2011 or early Q2 2011.
Zinc could add on some extra cash whenever the correct recipe is found and acceptable results achieve. TVI is not a zinc mining company but why loose it if you can increase copper % and get $$$ for the sub product!
Another surprise could be some interesting results from Dacon jv deal that occurred in January 2010. It has been really quiet on this partnership and whenever it is very quiet it generally means something is coming.
But I think the biggest and more interesting project on a long term scale is Tamarok and drilling will begin in early 2011 as airborne surveys have already begins.
When you look at all these different projects on the table it would be totally unfair to pretend that none of them will be successful.
Remember also that 7 more drills are coming back from the original buyer that desisted himself. So wherever those drills will go they will accelerate their projects.
They will get the zinc separation process right, (this would add up another 10M$ on their yearly revenues and probably another 4-5M$ in net profit)
They will get Balabag up and running (adding another 10-15M$ in revenues and 3-4M$ in net profit)
They will enhance mine life by at least another 10 years with the new Siennalynn project and they have mentioned often it will be stage by stage as the cost of a 43-101 to prove a mine life extension of 10 years at once could be very high But this one could add another 15-20M$ in yearly revenues and 10M$ in net profit one step at the time.
They will explore and drill Tamarok and do not forget that any type of good news on this one alone could mean significant increase in company value and share price. This is the unknown territory and most probably where great share increase could come from. (as a matter of fact share price could come from any great results from any projects they have right now)
Based upon those estimations even if only 1 project was to be successful in 2011, there is no doubt that TVI would increase substantially their gross revenues and net earnings and if Siennalynn, Balabag and Zinc were all to start producing revenues in 2011, the total 2012 expected revenues could be a lot higher than the actual 2010 revenues. Naturally there is always the mines commissioning that could hit some bumps along the road and this is normal but when you look at the possibilities, this is a fast growing company.
They have also definitely shown their ability to deliver and stay on course, control their costs and achieve sustainable profitability.
They have become a very transparent company (I suspect that they are now keeping some surprises instead of being too transparent) and even great companies do not indicate all of what is happening or everything that is negotiated at the time.
They have turned 180 degrees from an almost dead company to a very profitable one (they were able to spend on new projects only since early July 2010 when previous loan was totally paid for and look at what has been already achieved.
They have attract many new investors from OTCQX (remember those 600K to 1M shares transacted in 1 deal at the time) and imagine what would happen if only 1 of them was an analyst from a hedge fund…that being the case they would probably be looking at 7-10 million shares. I do not believe that any of those transactions were done by investors who do not know what they are doing. They know exactly what they are buying and they will take the time to get those shares at the right price and right before TVI starts its next leg up. Now imagine a listing in Honk Kong…
Talking about edge fund accumulating, it is very important to note that we the retail investors that are accumulating shares are doing it when share price is right meaning that we are not rich enough to buy 500K shares at once at the ask price. We will wait and buy them 5 or 10 or 25 thousands at the time then wait for it to come back a little before putting another order. This is the same when we sell. Nobody would do the mistake of putting on sale 1M shares at market bids. So DO YOU THINK edge funds manager are different? NO they will wait and see scooping the good deals on the market. The only way to have them buy the shares at high prices is stop selling them at the actual price that most investors think are too low. But one thing is sure, if those edge funds start accumulating shares of TVI the ask prices will eventually goes higher and the quantity available at cheaper prices will be eliminated. This is a cat and mouse game and patience is most of the time rewarded when you find a great quality company like TVI with a bright future.
Yes there will be some instability in the market but we must not forget that even 5M shares traded in any given day only represents 1% of the total float leaving room for volatility.
May it goes back to 0,10??? Maybe and yes it represents about 25% less than where TVI was 3 weeks ago but it must be clearly understood that investing into TVI (not day trading) is a long term investment that will be lucrative on the long way. Naturally, nobody should resist cashing in some profit when you achieve your profit target. (nobody makes profit by buying stocks, we all make profit when we sell stocks…) but we have to establish goals whenever we buy in stocks and get ready to have some waiting moments and after all that is one of the reason nobody should invest all their eggs in the same basket and keep their portfolio diversified.
But, TVI is a great play in the mining sector and in a very very active area of the globe: Asia.
So this is where we are now: a waiting game where the believers will keep their stock waiting for the next major NR and there are many to coming within the next 2-3 quarters.
For those who believed in TVI some months ago when the share slipped to 0,075: congratulations you have already made a huge profit.
Where will TVI shares be in 1 year from now: your guess is as good as mine but with all those projects in the bank my answer will be :HIGHER…
lundi 15 novembre 2010
UPDATE TVI
TVI just posted another very strong quarter and very good cash flow generated.
With these numbers, TVI is still greatly undervalued and i expect a leg up as soon as it ends the day over 0,135
With these numbers, TVI is still greatly undervalued and i expect a leg up as soon as it ends the day over 0,135
vendredi 12 novembre 2010
NEW UNDER THE RADAR
This morning i added PRP (Prosep on tsx) as i think they have achieved their bottom and 2011 could be a great year for them.
More to come
More to come
ALERT TVI
Volume seem to be still very good and TVI is still on the best upward movement since a very long time. SHould be closing today at 0,135 or better. It will be a 52 weeks high and not sure it has anything to do with Q3 release on monday but a lot more due to new investors coming on board.
Was TVI to close at 0,14 or better, it would indicate that it is breaking now and next stop is 0,195 before finding a new trading range.
Was TVI to close at 0,14 or better, it would indicate that it is breaking now and next stop is 0,195 before finding a new trading range.
mardi 9 novembre 2010
ALERT MB TVI AC.B
IT seems that it will be another great day for MB and TVI.
I expect the run up to continue today with a pause near 0,20
For TVI another shipment should be confirmed today and another gain to maybe 0,14. There could be a surprise in the total value of the shipment as copper is about 20% more profitable and labour did not change.
In reagard of AC.B it did took a beating recently (remember to always take some profit...) nut it should be short live. Expect a return to a near 4$ soon.
I expect the run up to continue today with a pause near 0,20
For TVI another shipment should be confirmed today and another gain to maybe 0,14. There could be a surprise in the total value of the shipment as copper is about 20% more profitable and labour did not change.
In reagard of AC.B it did took a beating recently (remember to always take some profit...) nut it should be short live. Expect a return to a near 4$ soon.
lundi 8 novembre 2010
UPDATE TVI
Today was a great day for TVI. Again another round of large buyer at 3:15 pm. and close to 800K sahres one shot deal.
No, it is not the next confirmed shipment (i would guess tomorrow before opening) but i am convinced it is again the work done by Rhonda in the US that did some great results.
We have never experimented a sudent increase of 1 cent by 1 buyer. Yes we did saw many run up in the past but it was many transactions and many buyers.
What we see now is large orders at ask prices. This will make a big difference as i am conviced that those shares will not appear again on the market for a long time. Also note that the penny flippers have some what disappeared (not the one who keep some and sell some but the real penny flippers). Remember that not that long ago there was a trading game between 1 or 2 investors when 1 will try to lower the price 1/2 cent at about 3:58 and then somebody will buy at the ask to put back TVI on the ask price to end up the day. Well i have not seen that too often recently.
So what are we in now: a couple more grat buyers? I hope so...Another shipment: yes tomorrow (i guess)...Q3 release yes next monday (mind you we all know what will be the results)...then maybe some more interesting volume next week.
I will still keep my numbers at 0,135 to finally get out of the share churn we are experimenting since a long time and in the .10 to .12 trading range we were at. I think the next resistance is within those limits and the moment we kiss good bye to the 0,135, well TVI will run.
No, it is not the next confirmed shipment (i would guess tomorrow before opening) but i am convinced it is again the work done by Rhonda in the US that did some great results.
We have never experimented a sudent increase of 1 cent by 1 buyer. Yes we did saw many run up in the past but it was many transactions and many buyers.
What we see now is large orders at ask prices. This will make a big difference as i am conviced that those shares will not appear again on the market for a long time. Also note that the penny flippers have some what disappeared (not the one who keep some and sell some but the real penny flippers). Remember that not that long ago there was a trading game between 1 or 2 investors when 1 will try to lower the price 1/2 cent at about 3:58 and then somebody will buy at the ask to put back TVI on the ask price to end up the day. Well i have not seen that too often recently.
So what are we in now: a couple more grat buyers? I hope so...Another shipment: yes tomorrow (i guess)...Q3 release yes next monday (mind you we all know what will be the results)...then maybe some more interesting volume next week.
I will still keep my numbers at 0,135 to finally get out of the share churn we are experimenting since a long time and in the .10 to .12 trading range we were at. I think the next resistance is within those limits and the moment we kiss good bye to the 0,135, well TVI will run.
ALERT MB
It seems that finally reports were read corretly...
It's on the move and i expect a solid run up from here. Next target 0,74
It's on the move and i expect a solid run up from here. Next target 0,74
vendredi 5 novembre 2010
ALERT MB
They posted a very good quarter this morning. Profit was even higher than last year as we have to remember that in Q3 of 2009 they recovered 72M$ from the Rose Art litigation settlement and otherwiswe their profit would have been only 6,000$ for the quarter.
Sales are improving also so congratulations MB expect a leg up.
To see 2009 Q3 report click here:
http://www.megabrands.com/media/pdf/corpo/en/reports/2009_q3_en.pdf
Sales are improving also so congratulations MB expect a leg up.
To see 2009 Q3 report click here:
http://www.megabrands.com/media/pdf/corpo/en/reports/2009_q3_en.pdf
jeudi 4 novembre 2010
UPDATE DAN
Well it seems that DAN is getting some traction. Another high 52 today and is on a great leg up. Unless you did not took any profit earlier last month, this is probably not the right time to exit your positions.
DAN is profiting from all car makers in the world and share value os absolutely undervalued at this time. If they were to continue increasing quarter over quarter, there is nothing that could avoid them reach a 20$ per share before mid Q1 2011.
DAN is profiting from all car makers in the world and share value os absolutely undervalued at this time. If they were to continue increasing quarter over quarter, there is nothing that could avoid them reach a 20$ per share before mid Q1 2011.
UPDATE on earnings
Was a nice score for AC.B releasing today a grat Quarter results as seen on hte share price movement.
Going over 4$ will be a bit tricky as Air Canada could use that as an exception to get warrants purchases before expiring date. I will follow up.
On friday morning many other will disclose their results; YRCW and Mega Brand (MB).
I expect YRCW to beat estimate consensus and MB to deliver a very solid and strong quarter. This morning at opening, somebody purchase 400,000 shares and the bid was 0,75. Naturally his average cost was only 0,63 but this gives me the impression that maybe somebody knows something and i expect a great leg up tomorrow. Do not forget if that happens to take some profit off the table.
More tomorrow morning.
Going over 4$ will be a bit tricky as Air Canada could use that as an exception to get warrants purchases before expiring date. I will follow up.
On friday morning many other will disclose their results; YRCW and Mega Brand (MB).
I expect YRCW to beat estimate consensus and MB to deliver a very solid and strong quarter. This morning at opening, somebody purchase 400,000 shares and the bid was 0,75. Naturally his average cost was only 0,63 but this gives me the impression that maybe somebody knows something and i expect a great leg up tomorrow. Do not forget if that happens to take some profit off the table.
More tomorrow morning.
mardi 2 novembre 2010
ALERT MPEL
Very good quarter for MPEL. Expect a good leg up. Pre market already close to +10% and i suspect it could be higher during the day depending of the conference call Q4 view.
S'abonner à :
Messages (Atom)