Intertainment Media Inc : Could this be the birth of a new star?
Since a year now,(and more recently) INT has become one of the most interesting stocks to watch on the market and there are so many things happening right now with INT that I think it is the right time to focus on what is really Intertainment Media Inc and really what are you exactly buying when you invest in INT.
If you are a penny flipper, you can stop reading now as you may not be interested in this investment opportunity but if you read, you may probably think about it twice before reselling for a penny or two!
INT is describing itself on their web site as: ‘’We help brands engage by developing, nurturing, and investing in technologies’’ and based upon that statement it would be a mistake to only see INT as being Orstbo even if their recent great run-up from 0,46 to 0,83 in a matter of days sounds exciting.
But that may not be the end of this run up when you carefully look at what is INT and what it may have in store for us investors:
1) First and fore most Orstbo that should be spun off in the coming months. This translator in more than 50 languages is a beauty to see in action. INT have produced many exciting opportunities over the last 3-6 months to display the incredible value of Ortsbo and more are coming. If you had the chance to assist live to one of these events in your OWN native language, it was phenomenal and almost error free. Sure there will still be some hiccup, as translation is never perfect even when done by human beings. Look at some import products from Asia and if you read (and try to understand) the French translation you could be in for major surprises.
In my opinion, the internal value of Orstbo has now grown over the total value of INT explaining the need to spin it out. The Orstbo value will also be determined by its ability to generate money but we should not forget that its principal value is in text translation and this could be added to so many different products and social media that it would take forever simply to list them all. But some of them are Facebook, Twitter, strategic relationship with Variety in streaming live events and many more.
Orstbo was at one point the 3rd most popular downloaded application at Apple Itune Store and is available to PC and Mac computers, mobile devices as well as all major search engine instant messaging chat platforms Microsoft, Google and Yahoo! along with Facebook, iChat, AIM, ICQ, Gadu-Gadu, Ovi, Lotus Sametime, LiveJournal and Tencent QQ and QQ International, China’s largest chat platforms and Twitter. (more info available at Ortsbo.com)
Orstbo had 20M users in October 2011 and 40M users in November 2011. Shall we extrapolate for December and January? Are 100M users possible? Even if I think it is a bit high and it is most probably around 75M users, it would still be a great achievement. Think about that: it is a lot of new users in a very short period of time and I would guess that total minutes spent is also on exponential rise. In my opinion, the country that will have the largest user base will be Asia and most especially China. Could you imagine being able to chat with someone in China using your own native language? That is truly incredible.
So, in my opinion, Orstbo development is done. Ortsbo is now ready to go on its own with its own management team and employees supervised by INT. At what price: I would think about 375M$ if user base is now 75M users and 500M$ is user base is over 100M$ (average price of 5$ per user). For comparison only, Facebook have 800M users and is valued at 60B$ to 100B$ for a value around 100$ per user. We also have to take into account that almost 37% of all ads in this internet world are going throughout Facebook and Orstbo is far far behind (at this time). That progression in user base is faster even than Facebook but we cannot compare Facebook with Orstbo as they serve 2 different purposes. One thing is sure, a first class translator plug in could easily work hand in hand with all our actual and future social media applications.
So. can we use same metrics than Facebook: I do not think so unless Ortsbo start significantly produce $ per user minutes or $ per user that would be comparable. BUT if Orstbo was to generate only 0,10 per user per month that would lead to a 10M$ monthly revenues or 125M$ per year. That is very very impressive and this would lead to a 1B$ value based only on those revenues.
2) Ad Taffy: Here are some examples of Ad Taffy Technoligies (from Ad Taffy web site):Ad Taffy is a location-aware display ad product featuring IP-based geo-location and click-to-call functionality. The units come in two formats. One is a click-to-locate rich media ad unit that generates a pop-up map where users can browse through the nearest brand locations to them (found using an IP geo-locator). The second is a static display ad with click-to-call functionality, activated when the user punches their phone number into the ad’s information field. When the user inputs their mobile or landline number, it connects their phone to the service provider’s landline, immediately establishing a connection. The format has obvious use for local service providers, but it is currently being used in the political arena by Brian Storseth, the incumbent for Westlock-St.Paul, who recently implemented a “Click To Call Me” display ad to connect his constituents with volunteers and a mapping function to call up nearby polling stations. The strategy provides an extra level of connectivity between him and constituents, Storseth said in a release.The Ad Taffy technology is ideal for someone like Storseth because it localizes and simplifies traditional web search, Brad Parry, CMO, Intertainment Media tells MiC. “If you were trying to find a local dealer from a traditional web ad, it would take you anywhere from 8 to 12 clicks to find that local dealer,” says Parry. “What our technology does is it finds your IP address automatically, pulls up a map that showcases where you are and all the retail service provider locations around you in just one click.”
So the value of Ad Taffy is solely based upon the number of company that will pay to use the advertising module. At this time definitely hard to evaluate as it is still in test mode until mid-2012. The demo on Ad Taffy site is impressive and if final results are like the one show, it will be a success.
3) Itibiti / Knctr: This could be the next leader for INT. Imagine a platform where all your social media is interconnected. Very interesting and still with a growing number of customers and users. We have not seen new data relating to users and minutes spent recently but I assume they are still working hard to increase the perceived value of the product. Growth of Knctr will not be compared to Ortsbo but I think it could be well received by users all around the globe. The interface is nice and you can even call in North America without charges. Real value of Knctr will also depend of the number of advertisers.
4) Investment in Shiny Ads: The latest investment form INT. Shiny adds is directed toward the smaller advertisers and I think it could be easily attached to Orstbo. Could be very interesting on the long term.
5) Investment in Active ImageNation (Cap That) still on a waiting list for the beta test.
6) Lexifone communication systems: How about talking in your native language and being translated into the same number of countries than Ortsbo? Dream? Most probably not and even if the product is not totally perfect at this time, when that product become almost error free, well Ortsbo would then be a totally different software and attract a lot more customers.
7) Investment in China Green Channel: This statement by itself explain the value of this investment (from last quarter MD&A): ‘’The Company and CGCI will work together to bring Ortsbo and other Intertainment software applications to the Chinese market, utilizing CGCI’s media relationships in China’’
I hope you see the value in here as even if accounting value is hard to define, the long term effect on Ortsbo and other INT products is a major advantage. Where is the most populated area in the world : China. Who needs the most a translator plug in: China. Need I say more ??
8) SaaS Technologies inc: Interesting and again could be linked to other INT divisions. Here is a description of SaAS: SaaS Technologies Inc. develops data exchange manager tools. It also offers data exchange manager custom modification, custom database design, and custom data transfer services. The company’s tool enables transfer data from any data source to another, as well as users to use its custom designed templates to increase speed for database platforms. It offers its tools as software as a service applications. The company accepts online orders.
9) Deal Frenzy: Simply enter your email address and where you live and every morning you get the deal of the day email. It may not be the deal you were looking for, but it is a beginning. It will take some time to attract new advertisers and customers and again value is difficult to evaluate.
10) Commobility: Another very interesting division. Commobility Inc. develops mobile software and key applications in real time semantic search, location based mobile video search and real-time communication platforms, and large scale mobile messaging and service delivery platforms. This division again could be integrated to Ortsbo and Knctr easily.
There are so many projects actually on INT plate that it is easy to lose track of all investments that INT are making right now. That company want to become the leader in ‘incubating’ new technologies and they are on track to achieve that at a really high pace.
It is easy to understand that with all those projects, Ortsbo NEED to be spun off to allow that great program to grow even faster.
So what is the real value of INT?
Ortsbo: If it has already achieved 100M users then estimate the value in the range of 500M$. Remember that the more it will be used, the greater will be the user number. That valuation does not take into account any add-ons or plug in that could be easily attached to Ortsbo but my impression is that Ortsbo will be combined with some other INT division to generate a lot more revenue per user per month and this could come by adding Adtaffy + Deal Frenzy and commobility to offer a highly personalize ad’s generation system. Imagine getting your own personalized ad’s that could differ depending where you are located.
Net equity in INT is around 28M$. Cash flow burning rate of 3,4M$ per quarter and 21M$ on hand so no liquidity problem.
There is still around 55M warrants and options that could dilute INT share furthermore if all investments are confirmed.
One of the worry could be the value of INT after the spinoff of Ortsbo but INT has confirmed that they will retain a significant portion of the new company and will pay a dividend of up to 30% to shareholders at the record date that will be set at the same time that the announcement. That dividend will be paid in shares of new company and will most probably make the difference in the share value of INT once deal is completed. With actual market in regard of social media, I would not be surprised to see shares of the new company rise rapidly and at the same time, shares of INT should continue to rise as they will be able to present the real net value of Ortsbo as an investment.
My best guestimate for INT value would be between 500M$ and 550M$ if Ortsbo users are over 100M and between 400M$ and 450M$ if between 75M and 100M users.
As usual you should never invest more than you can afford to lose and there is never anything wrong to take some profit off the table when occasion present itself. I still believe that INT will be very interesting to watch for the coming weeks as they definitely have major winners in their portfolio. If Mr Lucatch and his team are able to do for one other division what they have already done for Ortsbo, well this could very well be the birth of a great star.
François
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