PLAY OF THE DAY DRL (Doral Financial)

Yes, i am back with DRL for a second time. Here is why:

Last time it did made a good jump from 1,79 to 1,87 and profit was good in only a couple of days BUT this time, DRL will be announcing their results on wednesday and this could be a really surprising quarter as it had an overpayment in income taxes that they will have to reverse into profit and at the same time it will increase greatly their capital ratios. I would not be surprised to see DRL jump as high as 2,35$ on wednesday or thursday.

So, this is a great occasion to buy on the dip either today or tomorrow and get ready for a great profit % in a few days. I will get in near 1,79 and hold on until near 2,35$. This should be a massive winner.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stocks.

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Is Ortsbo from INT really worth 210M$

THAT COMPANY SEEMS TO BE AN EMPTY SHELL AS OF NOW AND INVESTORS LOST THEIR SHIRTS ON THIS ONE" REMEMBER THE NAME OF THE BOARD MEMBERS FOR FUTURE REFERENCE"

The latest value that INT (Intertainment Media) assigned to Orstbo was 210M$ for a translator plug in that works perfectly even if at this time it is still having some minor glitchs when trying to translate local expressions in most languages.

(By the way, they are actually working on a wiki type of dictionary that will fix most of the problem.)

Actually on the last reading (end of 2011) Orstbo had acquired 107M users and the speed at which they are increasing that user number is absolutely incredible to the point that i would not be surprised to see another 25-30% increase at the end of March 2012. And i am not even mentionning mobile users numbers.

So when looking at value per user ( December 2011) at around 2$,  that is way too low based upon market value for other companies in the social media arena.

Sure the revenues per user are not that fantastic at this time but it is absolutely the right thing to do to have such a great number of users that advertising companies will be willing and begging to get in and pay a right price to advertise.

Imagine for a second that INT would have done the opposite: increase revenues per user and forget user number expansion. The result: each user would be targetted so many times a day that it would be annoying to them to the point that most users would only get rid of the application. Simply imagine a fantastic application on which 3/4 or the displayed page is reserved to advertising and 1/4 for the app. That would not make sense.

Think about Angry Bird: imagine that each time you shoot, an add would pop-up...

No, INT did the best thing for Ortsbo and don't see any reason why this coming company could not be valued more than 1B$ (yes 1,000,000,000$). They have the user base growing faster than Facebook, they have a fantastic app that translate instantly in 53 different languages and this is only the beginning.

As for the total value of INT, well at this time even if it was only for Orstbo, it's value is definitely a lot more than 50 cents. Do not forget all the other start up companies that they have invested in (too many to list them all here) and it is a no brainer that INT value is a lot more than Ortsbo.

Here is an excerpt from The Washington Post explaining one of the reason why Facebook paid 1B$ for Instagram. By reading it i am sure that it will pop up some ideas about other INT divisions and how they could easily be assembled together to form the next Instagram company to be bought out by either Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Nokia...the list of potential buyers is again too long to list themn all.

(From the Washington Post)

Facebook’s $1 billion acquisition of Instagram is a clear sign that Facebook, at least, is taking the rapid shift to mobile platforms seriously. While the social network has one of the most popular apps on the market, the company is still centered around the desktop experience and has admitted that it’s a little concerned about its mobile strategy.

In fact, it paid out twice as much as Instagram’s last estimated value to snap up the photo start-up — possibly because it’s a purely mobile application.

Guy Rosen, the chief executive of Onavo, which monitors mobile data, said the acquisition is “definitely a huge milestone for mobile.” There hasn’t been an acquisition this large of something purely mobile, he said, but the Facebook acquisition recognizes that “Instagram is on to something, on to what it means to be viral,” he said.

Apart from viral appeal, though, Instagram has the loyalty of a growing community of creative people that distinguishes it from other flash-in-the-pan fads such as Color, another photo-sharing app that launched to much fanfare and failed to gain traction, prompting a redesign only months later.

In its two years, however, Instagram has grown on the iOS platform and recently opened its community to Android users. The service now has 30 million users — up from 5 million in June — and the app is the sixth-most downloaded iOS application, according to Onavo’s numbers. That means it shows up on roughly one of every 10 iPhones.

“It’s the most popular social network apart from Facebook and Twitter [when it comes to apps], and the only mobile-only network,” Rosen said. “You can see how Facebook is really trying to address this gap by tapping into Instagram.”

Michael Scissons, president and chief executive of the social marketing firm Syncapse, said that Facebook is smart to look to Instagram and attempt to capture the creativity of its users in the same way.

“This is part of Facebook's. . . strategy toward making Web their own,” he said. “And it is based on users building their own content.”

Scissons said that he believes Instagram will become a core part of Facebook, which has said in the past that photos are a vital part of its social network. He also believes that the social network will do its best to keep the spirit of the photo service intact to keep its fans coming back and to keep Instagram’s talent happy.

“If you pay $1 billion for that team, there’s a strong probability that it will remain independent,” he said, drawing comparisons to Google’s acquisition of YouTube.

PLAY OF THE DAY RF (Regions Financial)

Very interesting bank. No exposure to Europe and getting stronger and stronger. Only dark cloud at this time is the fact they they will issue aabout 150M shares to repay TARP but because it has been approved, it is almost a sign that the US agency confirm that the bank is now solid as a rock.

So this is a perfect play on the next down dip. I will get in at around 6,49$ and exit at 6,98$ for a great 9% profit.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY LVS (Las Vegas Sands)

They had another great quarter and what is happening right now is profit taking. Look at the chart and you will see that they had a fantastic run.

This is a perfect one to buy on the dip and below 57$ it is a great one to have. Naturally i will wait a bit for market to stabilize at open and hope to get it even cheaper for its next run to 60$.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY UWN (Nevada Gold and Casino)

UWN has a new route for slot machines and revenues will only quick in this quarter. This is a stock that has a low daily transaction volume and normally i would not consider this one for that reason BUT with the recent events and the very low actual price, it makes it a good candidate for a solid return in only a matters of a few days.

I will get in at 1,40$ -1,45$ and exit after 1,60$ for a nice 10% + return. Now that stock has a lot of upside potential if you want to stick around a bit longer as i expect this one to be close to 2$ in the near future.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any other stock.

Get the PLAY OF THE DAY  on Twitter:  @investman2  

PLAY OF THE DAY F (Ford)

At current level this is a steal. With the credit upgrade from Finch Today (up to investment quality BB+) finally Ford is starting to be recognized for what they really are: a great car company that never took a dime from US government and was able to ride the 2007-2010 great recession by themselves. Ford did not dilute any investors and did not went to the bankruptcy procedure to get rid of their problems. They found their way out and now their balance sheet  is a great one. They are also building a new plant in China to increase production to 1,2M vehicles per year.

So i would get in at 11,60$ and out aroung 14,00$. This play may be a bit longer than usual but it is worth it.

As usual DO NOT INVEST more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in that stock or any stock.

PLAY OF THE DAY RSH (Radio Shack)

This is a very undervalued company and the recent drop was based upon only 1 bad quarter.

I will get in around 5,85$ and exit around 6,50$ for a nice profit. Today it seems that market will be really ugly. SO take the time and wait for the right price. With a bit of luck and nervous selling, price could end up lower than 5,85$.

As usual do not invest money you cannot afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

Get the PLAY OF THE DAY on twitter: @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY MPEL (Melcro Crown Entertainment)

In the casino business MPEL is an underdog. The shares are now trading at a near 52 weeks high but a lot of potential to grab. This one is a very volatile stock so get in at actual market today (near 15,33$) and get out before end of day for a nice profit as it should be trading around 15,75$.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

Get the play of the day on Twitter: @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY UUU (Uranium one)

Great potential for upside with an entry point at 3,02 - 3,04.

UUU is one of the great uranium producer an it's production is on the rise and their cost is lowering.

Great play.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or any stock.

get the PLAY OF THE DAY on twitter: @investman2

THE PLAY OF THE DAY DRL (Doral Financial)

This will be very interesting as this little bank in Puerto Rico has the potential to give a great return in a very short period of time. IMO they will be reporting a profit increase on their next quarterly report but most important is the fact that they will also book a large credit that will have a good impact on tier 1 and other capital ratio.

I am a buyer under 1,63 and a seller over 1,79

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing.

Get this on twitter:  @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY BZH(Beazer Homes)

This is one of the underdogs in housing and with this morning releases about home builds and permits, i would not be surprised to see another small drop. New home starts were not that good in march so looking for Q1 to be a bit lower BUT new permits did show an increase that let me thinks that Q2 will be much much better.

So BZH between 2,75$ to 2,80$ is a good play with an exit point around 3,19$.

I will be monitoring this one very carefully and pull the trigger after market stabilizes.

As usual DO NOT invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing in this stock or in any stock.

You can get the PLAY OF THE DAY also on twitter:   @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY DAN (Dana Holding Corp)

This is a great play and can be kept a bit longer than usual.

Very undervalued as it should be trading nearing 16$. Good gains to be made there.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence.

Get the PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter   @investman2

PLAY OF THE DAY FBP(First Bancorp Puerto Rico)

I will be getting in around 4,05$ and out at around 4,30$. Very solid bank and the one with the best equity per share.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

PS: Happy with WPX (Western Potash)...Wait until today results.

PLAY OF THE DAY NOKIA (NOK)

This is a very agressive play of the day and this should be executed very rapidly IN and OUT. This is a speculator play and only for really experimented users.

I will be in at 4,15 to 4,20 and out at around 4,50$ for a 7% return. I will put stops losses at 4$.

NEVER PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Always do your due diligence or consult your financial planner BEFORE making money commitments to any stocks

UPDATE NOKIA

Stock seems to have stabilized but still way too oversold. They are still a leader in the phone business and i think that their new LUMIA product will grab a lot of attention.

They have lowered their Q1 2012 expectations but i would not be surprised if they would have bottomed at 4,27 (in the expected range)

At this time it is a short time play but who knows, it could be a very profitable one.

ALERT NOKIA

This one seems to be badly oversold. Watch for 4,15$ to 4,25$

TVI The waiting game

First let me say that Rhonda leaving TVI is a very bad thing for TVI and will surely mean a greater challenge for Rhonda. I wish her all the best and she will be missed in here. I was told that Raina is a very capable one and does have a great experience log. I will definitely be in contact with her in the very near future.

As expected last year numbers for TVI were good. Not excellent but ok.

Profit was correct, revenues were ok, their bank account is very nice and only very minor debt at very low interest rate. So what else can we ask for???

WE NEED PROJECTS GOING!

Obviously, every major company in the Philippine is actually in a waiting game with the Philippine Government as it would be absolutely ridiculous to announce new mining projects without even knowing what would be the taxable rate.

But for now let’s look at 2011 results and expectations for 2012.

The first thing that comes off my mind is Canatuan mine life: it is really surprising that there is still 1.6 years remaining mine life bringing TVI now to almost 2013 before mine is depleted totally. The new ore mix that Yulo is using seems to be very profitable. My opinion is that they are still drilling near the actual Canatuan pit and that they have a lot more ore available than originally thought. That being the case, it would be very interesting to know by how much mine life could be expanded but I will not count on that as it is illegal to mention new resources without going first thought a new 43-101. This would be costly and not needed at this time unless major discovery were to be made. Just the fact that they have drilled more copper and zinc near the actual pit is more than enough for me at this time.

The second thing that I find interesting is the value of the mining claims: it jumped from 3.9M$ to 6.9M$. Hummm what happen? There is an addition of 4.6M$ in 2011 and under construction, there is a 5,8M$ under Construction in progress. To me these 2 amounts are referring to Balabag and that being the case, this project is probably a lot closer to an official start-up that we originally thought.

What about cash reserves: WOW 23,7M$ that is a HUGE difference from last year and definitely comes from Alaska transaction (that had a direct impact on the 12M$ net equity jump in 2011) and some profitable mining during the year.

For the math lover in you, TVI is now generating 0,035 per share in cash flow (yearly). That is very surprising for a company to have their shares trading at the same level…

It is also interesting to note also that TVI is now a profitable mining company. Last year it had a cumulated deficit and now it is retained earnings. This is a good difference.

So the net results is that in 2011 TVI made a profit of 0,005 (half a cent) compared to last year 0,022 net profit per share. We can immediately see why shares are trading at 0,035: it does represent a multiple of 7 THE SAME as last year (well almost the same albeit a bit lower last year as a multiple).

As a starting point for TVI share price valuation I think the real ACTUAL value actually should be in the vicinity or 0,15 to 0,21 cents per share if we only take into consideration Canatuan and NO other projects. To achieve that and based upon current valuation multiple TVI will need to increase profit to the range of 0,02 to 0,03 and this means between 12M$ and 18M$ dollars in profit in 2012. For Canatuan only this is feasible.

I would also highly recommend reading the 2011 final MD&A as it contains a lot of information in relationship with 2011 results and 2012 projects. Iit would be too long to copy and paste in here.

So what should we expect from now on based upon a fast decision from Philippine Government?

1)      We need an update on Philippine oil project. I know that TVI is not the operator and NIDO is the one that will decide if and when we get one. Based upon NIDO web site, there is not much to mention about it and their extension to evaluate real oil prospect in there is ending somewhere in August 2012. Should we count on a great surprise there?  I am not sure and will not count that oil project as something of the highest priority. But I would be interested to know if the value of this area was to be considered as 0.

2)      The Balabag project official start-up signal should be announced almost immediately after the government decision because I think that TVI had enough time to complete and process all drilling and made up their mind (and their plans…). The mountain definitely did not moved but I can understand some delays in the 43-101 because they may have to fine tune the drilling process to ensure maximum value in the defined resources. If they simply change the angle at which the mountain is drilled, I am pretty confident that they have to redo completely the overall picture. (NPV (net present value) must be done pretty accurately and cannot be changed after releasing the report or it would be considered misleading information) By itself this core project of 50,000 gold ounces will be enough to give a boost to TVI shares at least half way to where they were until production really starts up. (Total proven resources as of 2008 43-101 were close to 500K ounces and the 50K ounces was only to define the start-up bootstrap.)

3)      Canatuan expansion: I am almost convinced that Malasuk contain enough copper to increase mine life at Canatuan by another 5 years and drilling around actual pit at Canatuan could increase again that mine life. I think that if there was a 10 years mine life increase (as a total including near pit mining)) this would be the biggest factor to increase share price to a more respectable level.

4)      TVI will need a really good JV partnership with a well-established company to start up a great project with well above what we are used to as potential. A jv that will have nothing in common with Dacon that unfortunately has gone nowhere as of today. How about Philex, Xstrada etc…After all if the bans were to be lifted it would be mostly because of TVI as they would have succeeded where both of them failed and I am almost certain that some of their properties could be jointly exploited. (That could be a great thank you mark…)

5)      Continue exploring the Grater Canatuan Tenement Area trying to expand Canatuan mine life as it is within trucking distance.

6)      Tamarok: Drilling program should be continued in 2012 as this could be another major project for TVI. Any major discovery there could change instantly the value of TVI.

Overall, my view in regard of TVI is that it is in a Federal and provincial battlefield where the outcome cannot be certain even if my opinion is that TVI is in its right. All those legal conflicts have eroded the share price and investor confidence. Until these are put to bed, it will be very difficult for the share price to gain any traction whatsoever.

On the other hand, I would be very surprised if TVI was only sitting there and awaiting results before getting some advancement ongoing. I am pretty convicted that TVI people are more advanced than we know and that they will release that information in due time. As of today, I would not consider that as withheld material information for the simple reason that nobody knows when or at which conditions TVI will be able to go ahead with any of those projects.

At this time we can only wish for the best outcome and it could also be a good time to lower your cost on TVI’s share if your stomach is tough enough to support a 50-50 chance of a positive outcome.

Time will tell but for now I will keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best.

François

PLAY OF THE DAY WPX

Western Potash between 0,91 and 0,93 is a great play. It is highly volatile but you can expect 1,05 to 1,10 exit price to come rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY INT

Play of hte day is INT (Intertainment Media) on TSX venture. Nice company with a great product ORTSBO.

At current level it is a good deal as ORTSBO spin off details are expected very soon and shareholders on date of record will be entitled to received 33% of the spin off and that amounts to close to 70M$.

With around 350M shares outstanding that will mean a special dividend of about 0,20 per share (will be paid in the form of shares of ORTSBO) and this will increase the ask most probably up to 1,00$ rapidly.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your due diligence.

PLAY OF THE DAY ALZM

ALZM (Allezoe Medical OTCBB)

Highly volatile and for speculators ONLY. I normally get in at around 0,0105 and out 0,0175

Not the right place to invest a lot but a funny stock to watch. Has been profitable many times.

PLAY OF THE DAY AC.B

Play of the day is Air Canada (AC.B) at 0,88

Good results last month and still in the right direction. Too much fear explaining huge drop in price.

Still holding to BZH of yesterday bought at 2,99$

This is the last one one the week.

PLAY OF THE DAY

Today's play is BZH (Beazer Home USA).

Entry point at 2,99$ or less and exit at 3,25$ or more but could happen tomorrow only.

This play is in regard of home construction and is moderately volatile.

Don't forget to do your own DD and NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to lose.

Also available on twitter undere @investman2

NEW Play of the day

Everyday (business day) 1 stock will be named the stock of the day. These stocks are undervalued and represents a great trade opportunity for the day and the day after. These are very short term trades and are not for nervous investors.

For today: PLAY OF THE DAY IS:  FBP (First Bancorp or Puerto Rico). Very undervalued regional bank and moderate to high volatility. I buy around 4,16$ and sell before 4,75$ as USA govt still has about 90M shares to unload due to TARP.

It will also be available on twitter under @investman2

As usual NEVER INVEST MORE than you can afford to loose in these play of the day are not mean as a guide to invest. Always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.

ALERT DRL

Nice ride this morning for DRL. Watch up for the 1,70$ level.

Never a bad idea to take in some profit off the table !!!