TVI did went down a lot since last december but still with a low volume. That selling was probably due to some shareholders that did not like the TGE deal.
BUT that selling seems to have loss some steam end of last week and the fact that TVI was able to generate a revenue with only 1 shipment is very good. That was a surprise as i would have thought their earnings to be in the (0,01) to (0,02) per share.
Now what is Q2, Q3 and Q4 should look likes: i would expect 2 or maybe 3 shipments in Q2, 2 in Q3 and 2 in Q4 for another 7 more shipments this year. Sure copper price has been falling but again it seems that China and Japan will need a lot more than expected and will make copper rise back to a 4,20$ level for the rest of the year. Combine that with the fact that TVI has now a zinc circuit that works, it will increase copper % to increase between 21-25% level increasing at the same time total shipment value. So let stay at the lower level of per shipment value of 12M$ (i think more of 13-14M$ per shipment) it means there is another 84M$ in revenues and a very close to 100M$ for this year when Q1 revenues are added. All together it should generate about 0,06-0,09 per share in profit. Do the maths: unless TVI share price hover 0,18 (remember that there is still 2.3 years left of mine life) it will be still undervalued. Now add up some ore discovery, some oil in Alaska and Philippines, Balabag to be confirmed as a go and Tamarok, there is no reason that TVI shares should not explosed to the roof.
Hard to put a value at this time but a junior mining company is valued at range that varies between 15 to 25 times profit. So it could means a share price moving from 0,90 cents when lower earnings and lower evaluation are taken into account and up to 2,25$ if we use upper valuation for net earnings and valuation.
This company risk/ reward ratio is incredible at a price really attractive and totally disconnected from real value.
Those who came on board last year were able to pocket a return of 100% and even those who bought at the high price of 0,135 are still well positionned for a nice profit if any of the actual projects is conclusive: not all of them only one is needed. (Imagine Balabag at 500,000 ounces of gold on a 8 years period could generate about 800$ gross profit PER OUNCE if we think cost per ounce would be about 600$. (Usually it is about 400$). So 800$ profit per ounce* 500,000 ounces = 400M$ / 8 years or 50M$ profit per year. Each 100$ in producing cost under the figure of 600$ per ounce or 100$ in gold price over the 1400$ used would also adds another 6,5M$ per year in profit .
If TVI was to strike all of them with success, it could create some very wealthy people very rapidly. You can own a piece of this company for 0,07...i must be dreaming.
The real question is: actually TVI is facing one major concern and it is that Canatuan mine life is 2,3 years. It means that within the next 27 months they will have to have IN PRODUCTION another mine or added some more ore from Canatuan area to increase total mine life. Can they do it???
For some there is a doubt but when you look at TVI results carefully you will find out what they have accomplished in the last 6 months. Now project that over a 27 months periods and there is no doubt they will accomplish what they need to increase mine life to more interesting numbers from 7 to 10 years.
Sure TGE deal was not accepted from shareholders but now that they have those exploration wells in Alaska, Philippines and Niger (where costs to drill are now 0) what would happen if they were to strike enough oil for production as the question is no longer if they will find oil: THEY HAVE in Philippines and Alaska. The question is how much and is this going to be profitable.
Imagine for a second that the answer is YES to only one of those wells: what would happen to the share price? I could even think that the ones who were totally against their CEO for that deal would be the same to say he was a genius...
Time will tell but actually it is a great play as long as you do not invest more than you can lose.
