RAD Is the rally started ?

In the last couple of days (actually since Monday) shares of RAD came of the 2,26$ low to 2,38$ this morning (pre market).

It may not seem much but 12 cents gain on a 2,25$ stock is still a good 6% in a matter of days.

Now the funny part is the fact that shorts have increased during that time and it does indicate that even if 6% gain was recorded this week so far, many do not believe RAD is on it's way up.

Even the smallest bit of positive news could set RAD on fire creating at the same time kind of a short squeeze and could have this stock goes nut very rapidly as more than 150M shares are shorted and with actual day to day volume, that would be more than interesting to watch it goes up.

Now the negative side is that maybe the one who are shorting that stock are right and again the deal would be rejected plummeting RAD to 1,50$ range.

As usual, risk / reward must be high in the case of a trade deal and in regard of RAD the risk ration is definitely high as the reward could also be.

Time to balance decisions against risk but so far i would think what's coming is positive for one main reason: IF negative was in the cards, RAD and WBA would have the obligation to disclose it as it would be considered 'MATERIAL'.

I also think that we are a lot closer than we think toward getting that deal accepted, getting RAD a major debt paid off and welcoming the new Rite Aid company that would be a lot leaner and profitable.

If that deal was not to be closed, i would suggest a complete management change !!! 

ALERT TRADER RAD

Abnormal volume for RAD. Something is up. get ready

ALERT TRADER RAD

Interesting trading on RAD this morning as bids are impressive and getting higher.

Not sure at this time of the outcome but will keep an eye

ALERT TRADER AUY (YRI tsx)

Expect high resistance at 3$ for AUY. If it goes over 3,06$, then next stop is 3,43$

ALERT GOLD

To be watched carefully: ALL gold producing companies (Yamana, Goldcorp etc)

Recent events in North Korea suggest that this could last longer than originally thought.

Naturally do not forget to take some profit off the table but, this up trend could be here for some time until North Korea problem gets fixed once for all.

ALERT TRADER GOLD

With today's North Korea stupid move, expect some traction on the gold market tomorrow.

Already up in after hour trading I would not be surprised to see Yamana Gold (and others) climb early tomorrow morning.

So get ready for some large fluctuation.

If moves are that large do not forget to take some profit off the table as I do not think North Korea will play a role for that long.

TRADER ALERT YRI (AUY ) Yamana Gold

New board member for Yamana Gold. Shares are climbing rapidly. 4% gain and continuing

Robert Gallagher has worked in the mining industry for over 40 years. He spent 15 years with Placer Dome Inc., and from August 2000 to December 2007 was with Newmont Mining Corporation, most recently as Vice President, Operations, Asia Pacific. Before the June 2008 business combination of Peak Gold Ltd., Metallica Resources Inc. and New Gold, Mr. Gallagher was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Peak Gold Ltd. from February 2008. In addition, Mr. Gallagher presently serves on the boards of Dynasty Gold Corp. and Southern Arc Minerals. Mr. Gallagher holds a Bachelor of Applied Science, Mineral Engineering from the University of British Columbia. Mr. Gallagher's principal occupation is President and Chief Executive Officer of New Gold.

(from ''Find The Company'' internet site)

ALERT TRADER HOV

HOV has just touched 1,79$ and this could mean a great entry point (a bit shy of my prefer 1,75$)

If it stays at 1,80-183$, it maybe time to get back in.

ALL CONSTRUCTION sector is getting slammed today.

An interesting week is about to begin

This is another week that major disruptor could be kept in check.

North Korea has calmed down, so did Mr. Trump. This will help stabilize gold unless something happen but nothing to be affraid of this week.

About the oil market , Houston flooding will naturally disrupt the oil market a bit and the US could be forced to import some more than usual. Again, this may not be enough to move the WTI pricing needle too much.

The FED does not seems to be interested in rising rates that much this year so this will help GOLD and lower the US dollar.

The construction market will continue its correction and i expect HOV to slide a bit more getting close to a great entry point at about 1,75$

RAD should continue to trade sideways as it seems no one care to advise about the coming deal that was supposed to close end of august and that has been refiled again (i am sarcastically surprised !) and until then i don't expect anything else than little pops up or down. BUT this company has been shorted so much that if a positive new was to happen, shorters will get left with their pants down and a lot of $$$ would be needed to cover themselves. Expect chaos if that was to happen and prices to rise swiftly and rapidly.

FANG stocks should continue to move sideways but for 1 exception and it is Alphabet as they are getting close to announce their new Pixel 2 phone. I expect a 10-15$ pop.

On the Canadian side, be careful about Air Canada (AC) as it moved to high and too fast. It is getting ready to correct itself by a 5-10%. Same logic apply to Westjet (WJA)

Canadian banks are still some of the safest on the planet with a great dividend %. I don't expect any great moves either ways as Canadian markets are stable and this should continue for some time. One of the bank to check on is Laurentian Bank (LB). This is probably the bank with the worst service and the worst employee attitude but they are making a good turnaround in their profitability. I hate that bank on a service base but at this price this is a tempting trade occasion.

Great Panther (GPR or GPL in the US) continues to slowly climb. I do not expect any major move but it is poised to climb back toward the 2$ mark in Canada and 1,60$ in the US. Good mining company (small one) but no long term debt and profitable.

Potash is simply defying logic at this time so the same apply to Potash Canada (POT) and all the Canadian projects that are trying to see the light (as Encanto Potash  EPO). In the case of EPO it is simple: lots of talk but no action. It lead the share price spiral from 18 cents to 5 cents. Because there is a rule in Canada about financing where the share price cannot be under 5 cents to do a private placement (private financing by issuing additional shares) i expect a come back from this time and being on the Venture Market, prices are often manipulated right before financing is to be announced. This is a perfect example to buy low and sell high on the news.

So unless the world goes nut this week, it maybe more interesting to watch the paint dry than the performance of some stocks. Continue to watch my traders alert as we never know when the opportunity will knock on the door.

What about this friday ?

As mentioned earlier, this week  was only range bound trading without clear signal in either direction.

Still some interesting points:

1) OIL.....WTI is now 5$ behind BRENT......Hummmmmm will correct itself earlier next week and i presume WTI will go higher faster than BRENT

2) GOLD and SILVER are somewhat still range bound trapped. This was a week where not much happen and still many things lingering in the background. Will see next week

3) Rite Aid  (RAD).......not ready to give up on this one but it management surely know by now the best way to have their companies lose market value. They (Walgreen and Rite Aid) deserve an 'A' on that subject. I also think that shorts is now well above 250M shares based on actual readings. If good news were to come i know expect higher volume on that day most probably in the 200M shares traded.

4) Hovnanian (HOV) is getting back on its down slope as expected even if it had a dead cat bounce yesterday. Wait before getting in or if you can stomach the downside, you can start now only a bit a the time and get ready for some down swing again next week. If DOW correct itself by 3-4% expect HOV to go down by 15-20%. Remember that they have not been able to generate any profit this year in a year where number where really really good for the construction corps.

So about this week, i would say it was more interesting looking at the paint dry on a wall than the swings of the markets.

Another thing to remember: you will never make any money by buying stocks........you will make money by selling them at the right time.

Hope you all have fun this week my 30k readers.

TRADER ALERT RAD

Keep an eye on RAD today as volume et buying pressure seems to signal a change in direction.

Expect upward movement

TRADER ALERT SDRL

On august 21st i mentioned the fact that SDRL was a great trade for SHORTING the stock.

Well, in 3 days it has dropped like a rock and it now sits at 18 cents for a whopping 50% (well a bit more) in only 3 days. I think it is the right time to take the profit.

RUN OUT as fast as you can....

TRADER ALERT HOV (Hovnanian)

HOV has broken it 2$ support.

Expect downslide to continue.

Buying point at about 1,75$ to 1,80$

OIL reserves from API report

At about 4.30 PM API will release preliminary results in regard of US oil reserves.

They are expected to have dropped by 3,4M barrels and any results indicating more than 3,4MB would immediately have a great impact on oil price.

That being the case, expect a good rise in the shares of MEG (tsx) and SUN.

Both are undervalued at this time  because of oil price but i suspect a rebound in the coming weeks so it could be a good time to get some $$$ in.

ALERT RAD Cross trade

There are significant cross trades happening right now on Rite Aid (RAD)

More than 3M shares in the last 10 minutes always at 2,25$.

This has happen 4 times in the last 2 trading days.

Wondering who is behind those shares exchange.

TRADER ALERT ( RAD)

Very interesting trading pattern here (again)

Nids are building up in the 2,20$ to 2,23$ and asks are getting thinner indicating that IF filing was to occur toady, some could be facing kind of a short squeeze and buying pressure could lead the stock value above 2,40$ very rapidly.

Do not forget that a lot more than 115M shares (July 31st report) are now shorted and with actual volume it could mean up to 6 trading days for shorters to cover up if RAD stays without news.

In case of great news, whoever shorted RAD could get in trouble and forced to buy very rapidly.

So, volume is still needed but anything over 20M shares traded could indicate a rapid upward movement.

Stay tuned.

TRADER ALERT RAD

HIghest volume per 5 minutes in the last 5 trading days. (buying)

Expect a change in direction from NOW. Either a short seller trap around 2,25$ or a solid upward movement.

CHK (Chesapeake energy) Potential for a solid play

Very interesting play in the world of energy as it has now achieved it's lowest price for the year and could rebound rapidly with any OIL movement up.

This is a highly volatile play but can generate a 5-8% gain (or loss...) rapidly

Stay cautious

TESLA (TSLA) Alert

Tesla just moved under the 20 AND the 50 days moving average. Could now test the 311$ limit and this being a major floor, if it was to get under, watch for the 300$

ALERT RAD Critical key level

RAD has just touched the critical level of 2,21$

If it goes under 2,19$ get ready for a plunge toward 2$ otherwise, it may return to 2,40$ rapidly

ALERT MEG (tsx)

Good dip this morning as there are some profit taking.

Maybe the right time to buy some more at about 4,55$ to 4.60$

Expect a rebound from here

ALERT RAD

As of this morning, no filing has been made on Edgar system in regard of the transaction Walgreen and Rite Aid disclosed on June 30th.

Very interesting to note also that the filing was remove 1 day before the 30 days end for the transaction receiving ok'd to go.

Are we now witnesses to poor judgement and poor management from both companies?

To me it is a slap in the face (again).

Very very surprising and no wonder stock price continues to slide.

Another interesting week is about to begin

This could be the week where incertainty will reigns on many fronts.

Politics will definitely have its say especially in Korea where war games will have North Korea continues to treat the US with empty rhetorics but annoying anyways.

Markets have also started to trade in range bound: NOT GOOD and could signal a shift in direction probably in the negative as we are overdue and i do think markets are way overbought. This may not happen this week but it is definitely coming. Maybe a good time to build some cash reserve and remove some bad ones from the portfolio.

There is an interesting one for the shorter called SDRL that is suppose to complete its reorganisation leaving actual shareholders in the dark. This is not one that i like too much but if they reorganize as they say, there could be some money to be made by shorting it but again be very careful and don't forget your stops loss.

Banks may not be the winners this week. The FED is not really interested in another interest hike this year because of inflation under control and this should give a little boost to GOLD. So i would avoid that sector this week and get some profits off.

Giant Amazon (AMZN) will not leave it there in regards of retail. Actually i think they will continue to eat up more. So i would be a buyer of AMZN and seller of most of the retail companies to the exception of Best Buy (BBY) that i think will continue to survive simply because they have invested a lot on internet buying and their way of doing it is exceptionally good.

Alphabet (GOOGL) is mostly stock in range bound trading and could be headed for more trouble as they will definitely suffer from higher advertising cost. They do have great products coming but not enough in my opinion to counter balance the expense problems. I expect another month or two largely trading sideways or at a 2-3% value loss.

Great Panther (GPL, GPR in Canada) is still a mystery. I think the problem is mostly related to silver value being way way to much volatile but GPL is getting ready to explode. Nice company without long term debt and profitable. Should be well above 2$. Nice profit to be made here if patience is one of your quality......

Ford (F): no change in my opinion about stock trading to continue nearing 10,50$ (lowest in 4 years) and maybe a temporary drop around 10$. Great value and great time to get in a bit a the time.

Rite Aid (RAD) That merger, euh, sale has been refiled (was to be last week) and they have now a new date of September 28th (or kind of) date to have their plans......reviewed. Not sure that those 2 management boards are planning but there is 1 question remaining: what happen to the clause of non-competitive deal that was to last 60 days? Is this not supposed to be ended by August 31st ? If this is still right who else will try to buy Rite Aid ? FRED......AMZN......Who else? Sure they know now how to get their share value going down and they now have mastered this art. STAY PRUDENT.

Hovnanian (HOV) is continuing its descent and unless something interesting happen, well they could break the 2$ limit then it could go as low as 1,60$. So this one is only good for some rapid trades hoping to grab 2-3% profit at the time.

Meg Energy (MEG TSX): Great upside to come. Definitely a good buy and its the same for Suncor (SUN)  but a lot less volatile.

Yamana Gold (AUY  YRI on the TSX) goes with gold value and actually good be a great one for some fast trades as volatility should continue to be high on Gold.

Have fun and stay tuned for some alerts this week  

ALERT FORD (F)

Ford is now at its lowest level since 4 years.

Even if i consider that bottom may not have been reached yet, it could be a good time to get back in a little a the time to avoid a falling knife situation.

In my opinion, it is now oversold and it could continue a bit if dow goes into correction.

If that was to happen, we could see 9,50$ to 9,75$ but it would not last.

This is safe heaven time

Honestly i do not like what i am seeing right now on many fronts.

President Trump is unable to keep his close friends 'close' to him as in the different councils he had organized himself and this could put his 'huge' plans on the side line for some time.

Amazon (AMZN) continues to scare most of the retailers except WallMart and Best Buy and even then is unable to stay above the 1000$ bracket.

Alphabet (GOOGL) still have difficulties with advertising cost going higher

Car makers (Ford in particular) are in trouble for sales being only correct nothing more but valued way above the 'correct' level

And i could continue with geo political events unclear to which direction they will go to......

All together, i only see a couple of winners at this time and it is gold, silver and oil.

Gold because by itself it is a safe heaven (by the way stay away from Bitcoin as it could get slammed) and silver because China being a great consumer and there economy is still running smoothly.

Oil has always been on the rise when conflicts appears and actually there is one major one not really taken into account and that is Venezuela.

So at this time, it would be wise to get some profit off the table and turn some of them into gold.

I expect a severe market corrections on all tech companies and this could lead to a flash crash by a domino effect.

Have a great week-end all. 

What's exciting this Friday

Ford: (F) getting close to my 10,50$ target. At that price it could be interesting to get in IF market stabilizes a bit. Watch for the DOW to react to toady's drop of 274 point as it could be the start of a correction and if that was to be the case, expect Ford to continue dropping toward 10,25$. In any case at 10,25$ or 10,50 it is a could entry point

Great Panther (GPL...GPR-TSX) Very interesting gain this week but still too early to sell in my opinion. If results continues to be that interesting, it could reach 2$ rapidly. It will not shout out straight to 2$ but it is getting there. Remember no long term debt for this one.

RAD Oh man this one is tricky. They even removed their last filing and no way to know if their refiling was done today. Wondering what is in it and i expect not much change except for a couple of stores here and there but again, i cannot trust totally this management team so stay carful. Volume tomorrow will indicate the direction. Low volume, more drops high volume great gain.

Gold will continue to raise but expect a lot of resistance at 1300$. But based upon open contracts (options call and put) i would not be surprised to see gold cross 1310$ on Monday so it could be a nice move to have some $$$  invested on that one

Barcelona's attacks, Trump losing it, Korea etc, a lot that could move the market rapidly.

Have fun and a nice week end to all my 30,000 (and more...) readers.

RAD alert

It seems that Rite Aid and Walgreen have remove their filing in regard of the transaction between the two.

They indicated that they would be refilling probably today or tomorrow and this will extend AGAIN the deadline for approval to mid September.

What is going on at this time is well beyond me and i would be very careful at this time as something has changed AGAIN.....

ALERT RAD

The trading pattern on RAD is exactly the same as yesterday and could indicate a large rebound and directional change toward my 2,75$ expectation.

Still, stay careful about a trader trap but trading as it is for two consecutive days does indicate that bulls are trying to regain control of RAD.

Rite Aid....a couple of IF'S

I was looking today on documents filed from Rite Aid in regard of their new store sales to Walgreen and what were the documents sent to FTC for review and unless i cannot read anymore, none was to be found.

This is at first really weird and tough about it for the reasons behind the fact that no document were filed since their announcement.

Here are some if's

1) Based upon their statement on the day they announced the sale they indicated that this 'will be a clear path'. Could that mean it is already approved by the FTC ?

2) If so, why no official release? Could it be because the FTC rules are in regard of the different states where Rite Aid is operating at this time and that they could have a minimal presence required to get the deal approved?

3) Could that explain why in the news release it was mentioned that the number of stores could vary a little ?

4) Could it be that at this time they are simply reviewing which stores to keep in some areas even if they already disclosed the pro forma results if results were 'after the sale' ?

5) Could it be that FTC already cleared the sale when this simple point has been corrected ?

It is hard to believe that either of those company would have gone so far in any kind of deal without prior consent from FTC and IF they were to had simply throw numbers to gain some investor confidence (no comment....) it would be a first in my recollection of more than 30 years of trading.

In my humble opinion, the deal is sealed, signed and delivered and some minor details are to be adresse before FTC gives its final clearance.

In the FTC history there is no deal that went to a second offer that have ever been rejected (please correct me if i am wrong)

Shorters: get ready to implode if news were to happen this week. You already have shorted over 110M shares (based upon july 31st stockwatch.com numbers) and in case of overnight news, there is simply no defence against that so better start to cover yourself before the storm hits you.

If before the deal was at 9$ including debt, it meant that it was a 16$ per share total (7$ of debt per share + the 9$ originally offered) and cut that in half for half the stores, it would mean that Rite Aid is now valued at 8$ per shares for the remaining of the company......

It is trading at 2,33$ meaning a possible gain of 5,67$ per share or 250% in a couple of days if the deal was to close rapidly.

Get ready and have fun.

ALERT RAD

Strange volume increase during the beginning of the last hour.

Been quiet all day than now major shift in volume and large orders.

Strange strange strange.

Either a trader trap or the rumor of FTC approval is getting bigger OR shorters are getting covered dur to the same reason

Trader point of view: INTERESTING but stay careful

How is this week shaping up (in my opinion)

I think that this will be a week without too much disturbance where OIL will continue to trade range bound and GOLD should do the same.

I do not expect that much of a swing anywhere but who knows.....things sometimes happen very fast.

My favorites for this week:

RAD (Rite Aid): it is still trying to get past its 2,45$ resistance but volume is still too low to have it goes over it. DO NOT SHORT as this one is getting dangerous and could explode with any good new.

F (Ford): continues to linger nowhere and i expect the fall will continue toward 10,50$ and maybe lower. Results were not good and there is no catalyst to change direction at this time.

GPL (Great Panther): drill results in Peru are looking ok and it could benefit from it this week.

GOOGL (Alphabet): I suspect it will get back to about 950$ this week but again this is another example or range bound trading.

AMZN (Amazon): Due to rebound toward to 1000$ mark and this could be the right week to accomplish it.

HOV (Hovnanian): continues to slide. No volume and going down. Not good. Could easily touch 2,01$ this week. If that happens and if it breaks the 2$, watch out. At this time stay on sideline.

EPO (Encanto Potash): still a strange game happening over this one. No way to know for sure what is right ans what is wrong. It is a wait and see game.

MEG (Meg Energy) It could suffer this week from 2 different things: profit taking and oil again in range bound trading pattern. Patience will be needed for the next rebound but this is an explosive stock

Have fun and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Alert RAD

If it breaks above 2,44$, the next stop is 2,90$

It is in the resistance area an it only needs some decent volume.

What about this week ???

Canadian markets are close Monday on here is what i will be looking for this week.

1) Will be interesting to see the answer from North Korea in regard of the new sanctions imposed on them. We have to take note that these sanctions may have been drafted and agreed but every country has now the obligation to adhere to those and it is not yet certain. This by itself could make gold attractive as a safe haven in case our friend over there decide to do another missile test in retaliation to these sanctions. Keep an eye on gold.

2) RAD: this one does not obey by any market rules.....range bound and far away from my 2,75$ price point called recently. Still believe that this is a way oversold stock but the absence of nice volume almost indicates that i am the only one thinking this way. I don't care being the only one as long as it reaches my target......

3) Oil rally.......see item 1 and add this to it: What is going on in Venezuela? Surprisingly, it does not seem that it disturbed the market too much but it could. Instability is not a good friend here in regard of prices.

4) HOV is getting close to oversold. Not there yet but it's coming. Very disturbing that the shorts have cover their back recently. More than half of the shorties are gone and this could indicate that HOV could be on the verge of a great upside swing. Keep an eye but stay prudent on this one.

5) EPO (Encanto Canada TSX) is a strange beast to get into. Nobody knows for sure it is not another fail startup in Canada or a hoax BUT if the story is true, it could be a very very interesting stock to watch in the coming weeks and months. I do think it is a valid corporation and that whatever was 'signed' (in theory...) was real. If that mine's really worth 2B$ and if they could find funds needed to proceed, it would be a major disruptor in the potash market and a great company to have invested in. At this time, it is a nice place to invest some left over coins......but we must stay careful.

6) TSLA: Oh my god was i wrong on this one.......But we have to stay very careful here because if there was to be any glitch anywhere in their deliveries,  it would be punished very badly. So still side lined at this time.

7) GOOGL: Alphabet was in my opinion severely battered recently when they released their quarterly results and i think it was a bit  too much. I do expect kind of range bound between 925$ and 975$ but it is highly sensitive to any new bad or good. At a 1000$ price, i prefer some other stocks at this time.

8) AMZN: This is the biggest disruptor possible in the market. They can and they will continue to change the face of retail side for many years to come. I would stay out of any retail stock with probably Best buy being the only exception.(BBY)

9) Silver is moving in the right direction but very slowly. Still the same for GPL (Great Panther GPR in Canada) as they are awaiting some permits. If they get them rapidly, stock will perform accordingly (upward to 2$ for GPL) otherwise it could go back to 1$ rapidly

That is it for this week and let see how it will unfold.

As usual, be careful and invest only what you can afford to lose. 

ALERT RAD

Buy signal is now in.

Expect resistance at 2,45$ but volume is increasing rapidly and bids are also showing great signal of strenght.

Does not look as a false signal (at this time) but stay careful

Air Canada (AC Toronto TSX)

With actual value of Air Canada, i would call that over from a trader point of view.

AC has been a great great investment but i think now it is above itself and the risk reward ratio is not relevant anymore and a lot more risky.

In my opinion, i would quit That position and look for another great one.

ALERT RAD

Based upon readings from many sources, RAD should get FTC approval rapidly.

Expect the stock to rally on nice volume.

Good signal would be over 30M shares and closing over 2,40$

Be careful to false signal where it goes back to the 2,25$ floor so it is better to wait until it closes over the 20 days moving average.

ALERT FORD results

Not good, not good not good

Expect some disturbance in the stock price and i would hold a couple of days until it stabilizes.

We could even see prices close to 10.50$

Time to simply wait and stay on sidelines.