Oufff what a day.
May sounds strange but i was awating that day. THis is the kind of day when many just throw the towel away and it is a good sign indeed.
If tomorrow starts with a very bad downward trend, hand in there the recovery will be as stiff as the descend.
Rememebr also that you have not loose anything unless you sell at these basement bargain price.
Rememeber it is time to go shopping not the opposite. When every one is elling it is time to buy and the opposite is also true.
Hang in there, it is almost done.
mardi 29 juin 2010
lundi 28 juin 2010
ALERT TVI
TVI has repaid their long term loan and convert some to a much acceptable level of interest (4.5% instead of 25%)
Within some time it means that TVI will be trading at about their cash level and that being the case, ti si a great opportunity if you are still under 10% of your portfolio in that stock.
Within some time it means that TVI will be trading at about their cash level and that being the case, ti si a great opportunity if you are still under 10% of your portfolio in that stock.
vendredi 25 juin 2010
WELCOM KBH to long term growth
Welcome KBH to my list of long term growth.
First increase in home unit sales since 14 quarters. I exect a steady but slow recovery untill Q4 2011 and a price target of 24$ in Q4 2011 for a 225% return in 18 months.
First increase in home unit sales since 14 quarters. I exect a steady but slow recovery untill Q4 2011 and a price target of 24$ in Q4 2011 for a 225% return in 18 months.
ALERT SSS
Well, news was kind of things that we already knew. The only difference is the payroll elimination announced that nobody expected.
It is showing a great dose of good corporate business sense and it showes that they do believe in their new drug. But at the same time company is now kind of a ghost one.
This is now more speculative than ever: meeting with fda about a phase 3 has probably a 50 50 chance of approval but not enough money to do it all by themselves.
This would probably means more financing coming and more dilution.
So after review, SSS will stay on my speculative play for the year and as usual whenever profit is made on those spec play, you take the money anad run.
Never forget rule #1 NEVER INVEST MORE THAN WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
It is showing a great dose of good corporate business sense and it showes that they do believe in their new drug. But at the same time company is now kind of a ghost one.
This is now more speculative than ever: meeting with fda about a phase 3 has probably a 50 50 chance of approval but not enough money to do it all by themselves.
This would probably means more financing coming and more dilution.
So after review, SSS will stay on my speculative play for the year and as usual whenever profit is made on those spec play, you take the money anad run.
Never forget rule #1 NEVER INVEST MORE THAN WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
jeudi 24 juin 2010
ALERT SSS
SSS has been halted this morning at the company request for pending news.
I am not aware of the exact reason but whenever there is a halt it must be of importance relating to the company. For example, to repeat that phase 2 was not conclusive is not a reason for halt as it has already been disclosed.
Halting to mention they will continue to phase3 is not neede either as it was already disclosed.
So what is left:
- found out an error in the placebo dat ? maybe
- new financing coming? possibility
- new partnership with pharma corp ? could be
- extending warrants ? good possibility
- Partnership realated to new patent obtained recently about 'Oligodendrocyte Production from Multipotent Neural Stem Cells' ? May really well be
As you can see what ever the news is it seems to me that it is going to be positive. SO get ready for a great thursday!
I am not aware of the exact reason but whenever there is a halt it must be of importance relating to the company. For example, to repeat that phase 2 was not conclusive is not a reason for halt as it has already been disclosed.
Halting to mention they will continue to phase3 is not neede either as it was already disclosed.
So what is left:
- found out an error in the placebo dat ? maybe
- new financing coming? possibility
- new partnership with pharma corp ? could be
- extending warrants ? good possibility
- Partnership realated to new patent obtained recently about 'Oligodendrocyte Production from Multipotent Neural Stem Cells' ? May really well be
As you can see what ever the news is it seems to me that it is going to be positive. SO get ready for a great thursday!
lundi 21 juin 2010
NEW PLAY
Glad to add this morning ESPH a new play with a great name: Jacques COusteau.
Check it out as i think it is well fitted in the actual BP scandal spill.
As usual do your own DD and NEVER invest more than what you could loose.
Check it out as i think it is well fitted in the actual BP scandal spill.
As usual do your own DD and NEVER invest more than what you could loose.
vendredi 18 juin 2010
MARKET UPDATE
It is very quiet indeed...Stock is getting ready to make a move and awaits the next good news.
This week labour numbers were not as good as expected and even then, stock continued to rally a bit.
So get ready for last minute shopping at good discount price. Next big move is coming.
This week labour numbers were not as good as expected and even then, stock continued to rally a bit.
So get ready for last minute shopping at good discount price. Next big move is coming.
jeudi 10 juin 2010
Update MARKET
As expected market did rebound. Those of you who did some shopping at basement price get ready to take some profit just in case there are more bumps ahead (there should be some next week).
Beg of July expect a complete update on all top picks and their relative position in my 2010 picks portfolio
Beg of July expect a complete update on all top picks and their relative position in my 2010 picks portfolio
mardi 8 juin 2010
ALERT SSS
New patent pending granted. In normal times, this company would have been 10-20% higher on that new but in thes very sad times for SSS nothing is certain.
Those interested in pharma should have good reads about the scale on which the results were explained. THere is a possibility that numbers were too high for the placebo or patients receiving the placebo were not in the same health condition as the placebo;s one.
Complete results should be available within 3 weeks.
Those interested in pharma should have good reads about the scale on which the results were explained. THere is a possibility that numbers were too high for the placebo or patients receiving the placebo were not in the same health condition as the placebo;s one.
Complete results should be available within 3 weeks.
MARKET UPDATE
Could it be the end signal to this correction?
If not, we should be near as most of my top 2010 picks are now in the oversold territory.
Stay calm and continue this great discount buying opportunity.
Never invest more than what you can afford to loose.
If not, we should be near as most of my top 2010 picks are now in the oversold territory.
Stay calm and continue this great discount buying opportunity.
Never invest more than what you can afford to loose.
dimanche 6 juin 2010
UPDATE DND
The appeal against DND was rejected thus minimizing the possibility of further court actions.
With that decision and the fact that they have a product ready to be launched in the USA DND is no a longer a speculative play but now part of my TOP PICKS for 2010.
They will receive more upfront payments from Ranbaxy (up to 23M$ before and after launch) and some royalties from the sales in USA and territories.
Also to be noted is that other expenses will also be reimbursed by Ranbaxy. DND has actually about 9M$ in their bacnk account and when you add the payments that should be paid this year, DND could end up Q4 with 20M$ in the bacnk almost a 1 for 1 ration to their share actual value.
Just that fact alone could boost the shares to well over 3$ before year end for a whoppping 300% return.
As usual, DO NOT INVEST more than what you can afford to lose.
With that decision and the fact that they have a product ready to be launched in the USA DND is no a longer a speculative play but now part of my TOP PICKS for 2010.
They will receive more upfront payments from Ranbaxy (up to 23M$ before and after launch) and some royalties from the sales in USA and territories.
Also to be noted is that other expenses will also be reimbursed by Ranbaxy. DND has actually about 9M$ in their bacnk account and when you add the payments that should be paid this year, DND could end up Q4 with 20M$ in the bacnk almost a 1 for 1 ration to their share actual value.
Just that fact alone could boost the shares to well over 3$ before year end for a whoppping 300% return.
As usual, DO NOT INVEST more than what you can afford to lose.
vendredi 4 juin 2010
UPDATE on TVI
Finding a gem in the Philippines
After reviewing Q1 results from TVI Pacific (tsx: TVI), the AGM webcast and the Q&A session, many things are exceptional about this small but so profitable mining company.
Sure copper did take a beating recently as did zinc.
Sure TVI Q2 results could be lower than Q1.
Sure that the new zinc circuit is still in the adjustment phase
Sure the daily share volume is not there actually as if nobody wanted to buy and nobody wanted to sell (not a bad thing by itself…)
Sure China seems to be lowering growth expectations
Sure that the many presentations around the globe has not given the expected results (it take some time to decide an investment in a mining company)
Sure that remaining mine life is about 3 years and 2 really profitable
BUT:
How many times have you been able to buy shares in a mining company for about the same as cash generated (using 4 X Q1 results) ?
Q1 net earnings results are not due to any 1 time event: no particular credits, no tax rebates etc. No, they have earned every penny by mining in their Canatuan property and keeping their cost per ton very very low.
How about also a company with only about 10M$ in debt: 4M$ in a high interest loan (should be repaid in Q2 or Q3 maximum) and near 6M$ with a bank loan with an interest close to 4%?
How about a company with over 16M$ in the bank (end of Q1 2010) ready to either pay everything off or do some acquisitions in the Philippines?
How about a company actually at the end of a 4 months drilling program to confirm gold presence in Balabag (100% owned by TVI) with results soon to be released?
How about a company that has signed an agreement with DCMI (one of the major Philippine Company operating in many areas) to develop near Canatuan property in a JV form agreement?
How about a company that has so many properties or mining right that they cannot drill them all right now by themselves?
How about a company that can move around from bankruptcy (or close to) and become, within 1 year, a very highly profitable corporation?
How about a company that has a facebook site and corporate web site so complete that nothing is hidden anywhere and any questions can be asked and answered at any time?
How about company making copper shipments almost months after months on a very regular basis?
How about a production cost per ton of close than 0,60 cents?
How about 0,10 cents per share and a market cap of 49M$ when revenues will be close to 80-100M$ ?
Is that possible at all? Yes it is and it is the story of TVI Pacific lead by Mr Clifford James.
This little (but very profitable) company was facing bankrupt in early 2009 when they were able to obtain the necessary credits to go ahead with their Canatuan copper circuit that was commissioned in march 2009 and shipments started in April of the same year. Since that time 15 shipments have been realized and profit is absolutely incredible. In early 2009 plan was to get about 3M$ in revenue per month but ramping up production and keeping cost down made TVI able to get revenues over 26M$ in the last quarter and a very profitable 3months with 8M$ in net profit even when amortization of loan was taken into account (paying off debt earlier than expected forced TVI to recalculate their original loan expenses on a yearly basis instead of a 5 year term). Without that recalculation net profit would have been over 10M$ IN ONLY 3 months. If this is not performance I am wondering what could be…
So what’s missing?
Mine life extension: How about the zinc circuit coming operational soon with a take-off agreement very profitable?
How about Canatuan expansion with Dacon? Are they not the experts in road, bridges, almost all kind of infrastructure so dearly needed to access those hard to reach areas?
How about Balabag where maybe close to 1M ounces of gold will be proven? Is this not close to 1B$ (1000 million dollar$ project)
How about jv ventures to explore the lands where mega budget are needed?
Why not partnerships with a company like Xstrada to join TVI in developing some areas?
It could be just plain speculation from my part but could you imagine the result on the share value?
Honk Kong Listing Why not? Do you really believe TVI has all the audience in Canada they deserve? Who care about a Canadian company operating in the Philippines? Do they know that Philippines are one of the biggest resources area and most of it NOT being mined? I would bet that the mentality in Asia is a lot more investment based than speculation…What would be an initial IPO in Hong Kong: 50M$, 100M$ or a regional listing for Canadian shares? Had you had a look recently on the way foreign company listed in Hong Kong have been received? Well a lot better than we do with our own companies. My impressions are they know more about finance than we do. Maybe it is also a difference in the mentality. Maybe they know where they want to go but also knows the time needed to get there.
It is fascinating to see many companies with share price based solely upon expectations and speculation. They have neither revenues nor profit but they still manage to have sometimes their share valued higher than a company like TVI. They climb really high really fast then the drop like a rock when they find out nothing was to be drilled out there. They sometimes look like some gas and oil drilling companies promising to drill so many barrels per day that they will all become billionaires and end up finally with not even oil enough to fill a lighter…(I can name a few but will restraint myself..)
Maybe our way to evaluate a company is more from a speculative view than financial reviews…Maybe it is time to even evaluate our own analysts…Maybe it’s time to evaluate our own way of investing (or the radical definition of investment).
But in the stock market business you always like to find a great company before everybody else ear about them and in my humble opinion, that is the case for TVI Pacific. A perfect company for an investment in Asia where the money is, where the resources are and where the people have the ‘know-how’ to be profitable.
To me TVI was, is and will still be one of my favourite pick for 2010 and unless something dramatic happen, it will also be for 2011 as I think their future is a lot brighter than their past and with all projects underway, one will someday catches a lot more attention and guess what: share value will sky rocket.
So this deal on share is ‘WHILE QUANTITY LAST. SORRY NO RAINCHECKS…’
After reviewing Q1 results from TVI Pacific (tsx: TVI), the AGM webcast and the Q&A session, many things are exceptional about this small but so profitable mining company.
Sure copper did take a beating recently as did zinc.
Sure TVI Q2 results could be lower than Q1.
Sure that the new zinc circuit is still in the adjustment phase
Sure the daily share volume is not there actually as if nobody wanted to buy and nobody wanted to sell (not a bad thing by itself…)
Sure China seems to be lowering growth expectations
Sure that the many presentations around the globe has not given the expected results (it take some time to decide an investment in a mining company)
Sure that remaining mine life is about 3 years and 2 really profitable
BUT:
How many times have you been able to buy shares in a mining company for about the same as cash generated (using 4 X Q1 results) ?
Q1 net earnings results are not due to any 1 time event: no particular credits, no tax rebates etc. No, they have earned every penny by mining in their Canatuan property and keeping their cost per ton very very low.
How about also a company with only about 10M$ in debt: 4M$ in a high interest loan (should be repaid in Q2 or Q3 maximum) and near 6M$ with a bank loan with an interest close to 4%?
How about a company with over 16M$ in the bank (end of Q1 2010) ready to either pay everything off or do some acquisitions in the Philippines?
How about a company actually at the end of a 4 months drilling program to confirm gold presence in Balabag (100% owned by TVI) with results soon to be released?
How about a company that has signed an agreement with DCMI (one of the major Philippine Company operating in many areas) to develop near Canatuan property in a JV form agreement?
How about a company that has so many properties or mining right that they cannot drill them all right now by themselves?
How about a company that can move around from bankruptcy (or close to) and become, within 1 year, a very highly profitable corporation?
How about a company that has a facebook site and corporate web site so complete that nothing is hidden anywhere and any questions can be asked and answered at any time?
How about company making copper shipments almost months after months on a very regular basis?
How about a production cost per ton of close than 0,60 cents?
How about 0,10 cents per share and a market cap of 49M$ when revenues will be close to 80-100M$ ?
Is that possible at all? Yes it is and it is the story of TVI Pacific lead by Mr Clifford James.
This little (but very profitable) company was facing bankrupt in early 2009 when they were able to obtain the necessary credits to go ahead with their Canatuan copper circuit that was commissioned in march 2009 and shipments started in April of the same year. Since that time 15 shipments have been realized and profit is absolutely incredible. In early 2009 plan was to get about 3M$ in revenue per month but ramping up production and keeping cost down made TVI able to get revenues over 26M$ in the last quarter and a very profitable 3months with 8M$ in net profit even when amortization of loan was taken into account (paying off debt earlier than expected forced TVI to recalculate their original loan expenses on a yearly basis instead of a 5 year term). Without that recalculation net profit would have been over 10M$ IN ONLY 3 months. If this is not performance I am wondering what could be…
So what’s missing?
Mine life extension: How about the zinc circuit coming operational soon with a take-off agreement very profitable?
How about Canatuan expansion with Dacon? Are they not the experts in road, bridges, almost all kind of infrastructure so dearly needed to access those hard to reach areas?
How about Balabag where maybe close to 1M ounces of gold will be proven? Is this not close to 1B$ (1000 million dollar$ project)
How about jv ventures to explore the lands where mega budget are needed?
Why not partnerships with a company like Xstrada to join TVI in developing some areas?
It could be just plain speculation from my part but could you imagine the result on the share value?
Honk Kong Listing Why not? Do you really believe TVI has all the audience in Canada they deserve? Who care about a Canadian company operating in the Philippines? Do they know that Philippines are one of the biggest resources area and most of it NOT being mined? I would bet that the mentality in Asia is a lot more investment based than speculation…What would be an initial IPO in Hong Kong: 50M$, 100M$ or a regional listing for Canadian shares? Had you had a look recently on the way foreign company listed in Hong Kong have been received? Well a lot better than we do with our own companies. My impressions are they know more about finance than we do. Maybe it is also a difference in the mentality. Maybe they know where they want to go but also knows the time needed to get there.
It is fascinating to see many companies with share price based solely upon expectations and speculation. They have neither revenues nor profit but they still manage to have sometimes their share valued higher than a company like TVI. They climb really high really fast then the drop like a rock when they find out nothing was to be drilled out there. They sometimes look like some gas and oil drilling companies promising to drill so many barrels per day that they will all become billionaires and end up finally with not even oil enough to fill a lighter…(I can name a few but will restraint myself..)
Maybe our way to evaluate a company is more from a speculative view than financial reviews…Maybe it is time to even evaluate our own analysts…Maybe it’s time to evaluate our own way of investing (or the radical definition of investment).
But in the stock market business you always like to find a great company before everybody else ear about them and in my humble opinion, that is the case for TVI Pacific. A perfect company for an investment in Asia where the money is, where the resources are and where the people have the ‘know-how’ to be profitable.
To me TVI was, is and will still be one of my favourite pick for 2010 and unless something dramatic happen, it will also be for 2011 as I think their future is a lot brighter than their past and with all projects underway, one will someday catches a lot more attention and guess what: share value will sky rocket.
So this deal on share is ‘WHILE QUANTITY LAST. SORRY NO RAINCHECKS…’
jeudi 3 juin 2010
MARKET UPDATE
New base has been established and will be confirm by tomorrow june 4th trading.
From that point (if confirmed) expect a good leg up before end of month where i would not be surprised to recoop all from the last month correction.
Looking for a long term great stock: Ford (F: nyse) is probably a very good play for the next 24 months. Under 12$ now i expect close to 20$ within the next 12 months or sooner if world wide economy problems seem to get a fix.
I am now adding Ford to my long term play.
From that point (if confirmed) expect a good leg up before end of month where i would not be surprised to recoop all from the last month correction.
Looking for a long term great stock: Ford (F: nyse) is probably a very good play for the next 24 months. Under 12$ now i expect close to 20$ within the next 12 months or sooner if world wide economy problems seem to get a fix.
I am now adding Ford to my long term play.
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