This week in review

What a strange week it has been on almost all fronts.

1) RAD: Very surprising share price drop at first look but when you get into the details, it seems more like a untrusted management to put back this corp on the right tracks. Investors do not believe that mgmt has what it needs to turn that ship around. I do believe that there is a bright future for RAD but management shake up must happen first. I do expect kind of a small rebound but we never know how traders will try to get the most out of it. I think RAD could test the 2$ mark again today or early next week unless something highly positive happen. As of now, it is a HOLD

2) Gold and silver were shaken a lot this week with the possibility of another interest hike this year in the USA and the US dollar gaining strenght. Could be a great opportunity to buy some in gold producing companies.

3) Construction is still doing fine but HOV is lagging. I expect a little turn around from now and HOW could go a bit over 2$ next week.

4) Amazon and Alphabet are still competing on which one will get over 1000$ and stays over there. I think it will be sideways trading for another week or two.

5) OIL: great week again for Canadian producers and expect more in the coming weeks untill OIL stabilizes at around 60$

Enjoy your week end 

EPO Value in the long term

EPO is on track to become THE potash mine in Canada and profitability is on the horizon but the hard question is : Who will benefit from it ?

Whoever has already invested in any business knows for sure that the one who brings the money is the one that owns the most, no matter who invested first. This is business 101 !

In the beginning some invested their hard earned money into a project that seemed full of promises and EPO was (is still) one of them.

The problem here is that many thought that by investing 1000$ they would end up with 100 times their investment and unfortunately, it does not work like that.

A mine the size of EPO needs billions of dollars to end up producing any goods and any first investors should have know that, no matter what, if they wanted to retain the same % of the final project, they would have to invest more and more along the way. That is the way businesses work.

EPO trades on the venture stock exchange.......or maybe i should have called it more properly the 'risk capital' exchange. This is where you invest early and sell early to profit. If you stay in those stocks forever, you end up being a bag holder of some worthless stock (because of dilution) and that must be understood carefully before investing in ANY of those Canadian Venture stocks. That exchange is more adapted to traders than investors for that reason and this could also explain why the Canadian Venture is having so much problems in gaining real value traction.

So, with that in mind, if you want to retain your original % value of the company, you will have to invest along the way many many times, as capital will flow in, to allow the project gaining some life.

In case of EPO, we are lucky to see some light at the end of the tunnel. We could have seen our investment simply goes down the drain as it is with almost 90% of venture stock.

EPO was managed properly enough to have a long term deal signed, for all (and more), of its potash mining potential. By itself this means a great value.

Now, it's the time to get serious and find the right way to build the mine.

We are talking in billions of dollar and even if we would like to retain our actual % of the company, this is a dream unless one of us could shed the needed money. So expect 1 or 2 reverse split during the next 3-5 years or until the mine is build. I personally expect a reverse split to happen no later than early next year allowing EPO to draw the millions $ needed, and another one before getting the Billion dollars needed to construct that mine.

Remember also that EPO has a very complex owners share structure with many large investors involved. They will not let their capital evaporate.

So even if the trading company was to be successful, there is simply no way they could generate enough profit to pay for the mine by itself and EPO will need financing in an hostile environment and cash strap financing possibility.

Don't get me wrong, EPO is a fantastic project on the long term BUT investors will have to inject a lot more money to retain their company % and profit from it.

The only actual way of making money out of EPO AT THIS TIME, is to trade it up whenever possible, profit from the trade, wait for a dip than do it again. It will be a lot more profitable than investing in thinking this will be profitable on the long term without investing more.

Whenever we talk about business fundamentals, we have to remember that EPO actually is worth nothing if mine is not build EVEN with the signed agreement. We have to ask ourselves how much profit it could earn being a middle men in the potash industry. Yes there is some money to be made out of this trading corp but % would have to be very low.

The recent price movement (or absence of it) shows without doubt that: take off agreement and financing possibilities are not enough to justify any large value to EPO. The only thing that will allow a nice price increase is money and where it will come from. Until then..........it's a dream but if you are trading it properly, EPO could procure you very nice gains by buying the dip and selling higher until all financing is in place.

Best of luck to all EPO investor (and traders)

TGIF What to expect

It looks like this is going to be a really quiet Friday without too much action on the markets based on actual readings on the actual action on premarket.

Overall, i still thinks that RAD will make a comeback next week especially during results day (next Thursday). Results will be very bad (as usual) but we will get a better feel on how they will use the proceeds from the sale to WBA as they already received 325M$. Will be interesting to have a look of where that money went. Anything else than repaying some debt will be seen as ridiculous and shares will react accordingly.

GOLD and SILVER are in a slump right now because of the possible December US rate hike. It would continue to trade this way for some time.

OIL may have started a rally that will be light in the beginning but to intensify later in fall. I expect a 60$ price end of this year.

Retail sector continue to be in jeopardy : thanks to Amazon. But we should not forget the other great retailers of this world: Best Buy, Costco and WalMart. When you add these 4 together, well, not much left for the other on a long term view. Actual retail will have to adjust rapidly or disappear.

Talking about trouble, Toys R Us is one of the best example of retail store having not adjust to market demand for years. Stores are mostly as they were 20 years ago without much thinking in their design but most especially in their service offered to customers. Their online site is not performing and there are still no way to order and get it in store asap....look to where it drive them: Chapter 11.

Advice to other retailers: react NOW or get lost.

Amazon is in to stay and with their mind set on technology serving customers, they may have found the right recipe for the next 10 years (or until somebody gets a better way of doing it)

Alphabet continues to struggle with their share price. Yes they do have great products but these ideas have already been taken into account in the share price. Advertising revenues will continue to go down, and unless they find something totally new, it will continue to trade range bound.

Have you seen Air Canada (AC-TSX) recently ? WOW... i recommended buying that stock at 2,50ish and it is now well over 26$. NICE GAIN. Same for CHR-TSC (Chorus aviation). But be careful as they have shot well over their target range and could correct a lot. So great time to take some profit off the table.

Now, if i had to make a bet on a US bank, i would go for FBP (First bank of Puerto Rico).  I would wait a bit for correction to end at about 5,25$ and i expect over 7$ when all is set and repaired.

That is it for the Friday Edition, have fun

ALERT EPO

100M$ financing has been secured.

Will be highly dilutive at the beginning as they will issue shares at 90% of market value.

So if for example they withdraw toady 10M$, they would issue shares value at 4,5 cents meaning about 200M shares for that first draw only.

Hope shares will climb rapidly or expect a reverse split rapidly. 

ALERT RAD

Oufffffff

What a bad day for RAD that got approval for the sale of 1900 of their retail outlets.

Looks like shorters had a great party but it may not last that long.

RAD will receive over time 4.375 B$ for roughly half of their stores. If they do what they say they will, it means that the long term debt will also reduce by the same amount creating a lot more interesting business model with a lot more manageable long term debt.

Expectations are for a share price between 4$ and 5$ and today was the day where shorters took control of the nerves of actual shareholders.

If you look at real traded shares today, it is about 10% of total shares meaning that it has nothing to do with kind of panic selling.

Many entered the world of Rite Aid only to make a couple of bucks rapidly and did so by indicating stop loss orders that were totally wiped out during the day creating a domino's effect.

Now that the bad is done, is the worst over ? Not quiet sure but i do not expect anything of that magnitude for the coming days.

I expect a small recovery until the quarterly results are released on the 28th.

Since then it could well be kind of difficult to predict share price direction.

have fun

ALERT TRADER RAD

Based on actual trading pattern, (i could be totally wrong here) but it looks like RAD will rebound from the 2,43$ low.

Traders are increasing their bids right now and sellers are starting to smell some pressure.

We should see also some spike in volume.

NOT the right time to short anymore. Be very careful. 

ALERT TRADER RAD

WHERE IS THE VOLUME ???????

9M shares premarket and only 400K since opening (3 minutes) ???????

It looks like traders are waiting for the bottom at 2,54 to be installed properly before getting in

TRADER ALERT RAD

Deal signed sealed and delivered.

A smaller one with about 250 less stores but still a great deal.

More to come on details.

TRADER ALERT RAD

Expect good news today on Rite Aid deal.

Based upon reports from different sources with knowledge in the matter, FTC will approved the deal by today with what maybe some minor differences.

Now, with FRED this morning changing its shareholder protection chart, what could it means and what could be FRED implication ? They were supposed to get some in the original deal and MAYBE they will finally gets some chunks of Rite Aid.

Expect incredible volume today close to 100M shares traded.

ALERT RITE AID (RAD)

Still no official news form FTC and rumors are indicating the deal could modified again today to address FTC concerns.

If that was to be the case and another 30 days delay was announced, that would not be that good for RAD stock. Naturally a modified deal is still better than a deal getting reject.

Pre market activity seems positive on good volume.

So let see.

ALERT RAD

Based on older filings from Walgreen and if filing was made on time, the timer is now over and the deal will now gets approved.

Based upon trading today, it seems like many traders have already closed their short position.

Now, that does not mean deal is approved......it means nobody moved.

I would not be surprised that FTC does not have to give an answer if the end of the 30 days comes on a non working day meaning that Monday will be the day.

Stay calm and enjoy your week end.

ALERT RAD TRADER ACTION

At 10.55 one trader bought 400,000 at 2,56$

Somebody is definitely covering his butts

TRADER ALERT RAD (Rite Aid)

So far very erratic and non directional trading on RAD.

Low volume and this could be a last attempt from traders to cover them without success so far.

Large block were put on the ask and were eaten rapidly.

If theory is true, expect higher volume till the end of the day with marginal gains naturally if no news are release.

This is Friday !!!

Well, this week end could be more interesting that the week itself.......

Lots to keep in touch with: North Korea last stupid move.......they are really looking for trouble and i hope somebody will find a way to stop them NOW before it's too late.

So this will keep am upward pressure on GOLD and SILVER even if the US are still talking about another rate hike this year. Personally i think that at this time nothing justify another hike and this should not happen unless things changes dramatically.

RAD.......TIC TAC TIC TAC......last trading session before knowing if the deal gets approved or not. Expect some price swings for the stock and keep an eye on the directional movement. It could be fast and furious in any decision. Already over 125k traded so far in pre market.

Other than that, not much to expect either way based on actual pre market trading. Very very soft.

So enjoy your week end 

Expectations

Here are my expectations for trading until tomorrow EOD

OIL and SILVER: range bound trading so low profit to be made and low losses to be generated. HOLD

RAD: TIC TAC TIC TAC.....If documents were filed on time, it means that Septembre 18th is around the corner. The adage says that 'no news is good news' well in the case of RAD, remember that they decided to refiled 1 day prior prior to end date.....So we never know but in any case, i think that shorters will continue to cover themselve. So some good gains could be made as the acceleration of trading should be seen today and tomorrow unless bad news again pound RAD. If some gains are made, remember to get some off the table. You could make less profit but could avoid large losses in case deal was not to get approved.

HOV: expect range bound trading as it does not have a clear direction yet HOLD

AMZN: Breaking into the 1000$ again this morning and it is the resistance level. If it holds, get ready for 1050$.  BUY

Have fun!

Very interesting day

On one front OIL is making a come back and companies like MEG (tsx) and SUN will benefit from that. I expect some more until Friday.

Gold is getting a bit lower again today and the trend could continue for  a couple of days. Do not expect a come back until next week.

RAD: This is following the exact direction it should. TIC TAC TIC TAC, we are getting real close to the absence of decision from the FTC meaning a green light by default.

Shorts will have to cover themselve rapidly and the actual trend should continue until Friday unless bad news were to hit.

Have fun tomorrow

ALERT TRADER RAD

Was it a panic selling day about Rite Aid ?

NOT AT ALL......

Under 40M shares trading, it is even less than a normal day.

We are in a waiting mode as the click is ticking toward September 18th. No buyers (oh well some) on no real sellers.

This is trading games happening where traders try to influence investors trying to make them thinking they know something but at the end they know nothing.

Remember that one particular highly important fact about Corporations is that they have to let investor know IMMEDIATELY when something material happens. They cannot wait period.

They has been no new as of yet meaning nothing has changed.

Have fun

ALERT RAD

WOW....this does not look good for RAD this morning.

High volume and share price dropping usually does not fit well together for the investor.

I will keep an eye on it but as of now i would be extremely cautious.

Either somebody knows something or this is only trader games but in both cases, watch out

ALERT RAD Trader games

Very interesting games this morning on RAD. To me it looks like the last short and short covering day before the news.

Trading pattern indicates that trading is occurring within a 2% range up and down meaning short term shorting and covering rapidly. Will be interesting to see how much shorts still exist tomorrow but first impression telling me it would have diminished.

To be kept in sight

This will be an interesting Tuesday.....

Apple will announce its newest smartphone so keep an eye on the company shares. It could swing either ways especially in regard of the delivery dates. If the IPhone X was to be delayed and delivered in November, reaction could be one of disappointment.

Gold is due to rebound somewhat today as shares of Yamana Gold and Goldcorp (and most gold miners) have taken a beating yesterday. They were all smashed way too far and if you were in a position to buy some yesterday, it could be a nice trading opportunity on a short term basis.

RAD (Rite Aid) TIC TAC TIC TAC TIC TAC (September 18th is coming rapidly)is at resistance level. On good volume and getting over 2,58$ could mean a rapid rally toward 3$. Remember that 150M shares (approx.) are to be covered in case of great news and volume would spike rapidly if rumors were to be at the effect the deal has been approved. So keep an eye.

HOV is still battling to gain some traction but i think the worst is over. We shall see.

Still not move from North Korea........they will do something and i hope that they will not go too far.

So let's see what happen

This week looks quiet

At first this week seems to be the slowest of the month as no major news are expected.

Oil could face some upside when results 'will' show a draw into the US reserves so expect WTI to gain this week (will be impacting MEG and SUN).

All major sectors should be trading within range bound except maybe for GOLD and SILVER that did suffered last Thursday and Friday. I do not expect a rebound unless North Korea does not like the new sanctions tried to be imposed by the USA.

Will keep you informed on any interesting change in trading patterns especially on RAD as clock is still ticking.

TGIF......................What's up for this Friday

Last day of the week and it was a great one on many fronts and devastating for many people because of Irma and Harvey. Hope they will recover rapidly and that they will get the needed help.

Some time ago, i mentioned that the greatest disrupter in retail sector was Amazon (AMZN). Could it be behind all the problems seen at Toys R US recently ? Not sure about their way of doing business in the USA, but let me tell you that in Canada, they need some management changes and the way they deal with their employees. Retail success most of the time comes with employee's tenure. Not in Toys R Us case......Their business segment is getting eat by competitors and sadly they do not know what to do......Expect chapter 11 early next year right after Xmas season.

GOLD continues its march toward great gains. Anyone that have invested in YAMANA GOLD (YRI tsx or AUY) have made a killing this week from 3,70$ up to 3,85$ (before correcting itself a bit). OK 15 cents does not sounds a lot but it is 4% in 5 days...........Try to get that from your bank. Good luck!

And i think it is not over yet.....think about North Korea. Expect another missile launch before September 11 as a gift to the USA..........This one could be the last.

OIL movement has been very good this week and if you entered MEG (TSX) early Monday that would have been another great run as it went from 4,88$ up to 5,25$ before correcting itself. Another 7% gain.

SILVER especially Great Panther (GPR tsx or GPL) were it came from 1,33$ up to 1,46$ for a whopping 10%. Remember that Great Panther has no long term debt and is not fixing price until delivery. That means that everything shipped in the last 8 weeks that is starting to be received and will be paid in today's value. That should help the bottom line in a great way.

In regard of SILVER, there is an interesting trade that took place recently where somebody took a 1M$ dollar bet on silver going over 25$ before January 2019.

you can read it here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/the-surprising-rationale-behind-a-million-dollar-bet-on-silver.html

If that price was to be achieved, it would help companies like GPL's stock achieve a fantastic return and if somebody is putting a bet like that i would be tempted to invest a bit on a long term view (i know, i know, long term to me is about 3 months...........) just in case.

Now HOV: well this was not my best bet for the week as i did get back in between 1,79$ and 1,82$ but that dummy closed yesterday at 1.74$........uhhhh losing position -5%.

Lets see now  EPO (Encanto Potash on TSX venture).

This one is my speculative position (keep in mind that speculative means 100% losses (or you may lose it all)) being the same.......

They still have (they say they have) an offtake agreement for almost all of the potash they can produce and that the mine built would be worth 2B$ (yeap 2 billion dollars)

Only problem is: Where will the money needed to build it, would come from ?????? No sign here that they may even be advancing their project.

So this is speculative and, as often on Canadian Venture stock, it could be another flop. Time will tell but on the other hand, if some good news were to be released, this could be the best investment of the year.

Now RAD (Rite Aid)......TIC TAC  TIC TAC 10 days to go before the deal is approved or rejected and it is starting to be seen now in RAD trading pattern where shorts are getting lower and price going upward. It is not exactly what i am looking for (i mentioned that this was still a 6$ stock) but at least we can see that there is some buying pressure and this is very good for this little one. Any news about transaction getting the green light will have the stock skyrocket due to shorts covering their butts......When this happen don't be afraid to get most of them off the table as it could correct itself thereafter when future vision of RAD comes in play. So it is a great way to use enter future pricing sell orders.

Well that is it for this review of the week and as usual enjoy the week end my 30k readers. (now 31k)

(i will naturally let you know if anything interesting happen.....)

ALERT GOLD

WE are getting very close to the highest gold price since july 17th 2016 and then Agugust 2013

YES 2013

If an i mean IF gold goes over these marks, that would mean a lot for gold producing companies.

So keep an eye on that one.

Do not forget Silver that is also on fire.

GPL (GPR TSX) is on fire and climbing almost everyday even when profit taking is taken into consideration.

It is not too late to join the party..........

ALERT RAD The clock is ticking TIC TAC TIC TAC

What's happening with today's highest volume than the last many weeks. Actually it is the highest volume since August 1st.

So, what's going on??? Well the clock is ticking TIC TAC TIC TAC

On September 18th, if there are no objections from FTC, it means the deal is approved and will proceed as expected.

Now, is this a trader trap ? I do not believe so as trading pattern indicates bulls are in full control of this one.

Will be interesting to have a look at tomorrow short interest (i know official reports are on the 1st and the 15th) but there are ways to know on many trading platform the actual short interest if it is growing or if number is getting lower.

My expectation is that shorter's are getting covered at this time as there is no way to believe either RAD or WBA  would have entered that deal without checking it first with FTC.

I believe that that deal is signed and delivered.

Lets see what tomorrow brings in but i believe it is now 'enroute' toward 3$ mark before decision is made

OIL Report

with this week event, i expect a draw form US oil reserves and a rise in WTI oil price that would reflect on Sunco (SUN) and Meg Energy (MEG tsx)

ALERT TRADER HOV

Bids increasing tells me that finally results were into the stock price.

I am back in.

Expect resistance at 1,84$

ALERT TRADERS HOV

Again HOV did not delivered on results but so far reaction is mild as i think results were already baked into the stock price and looks more like an ok day.

Keep an eye on it as many time it did changed direction in the blink of an eye

What about tomorrow???

Keep an eye on HOV tomorrow morning as they will disclosed their last quarter results and hte following could happen:

1) They report as usual a small loss..........shares drop to about 1,60$

2) They report a great quarter and stock starts a recovery.

Whatever the report is, based upon last couple of quarters, the trend will take some time to gets in so if report is great get ready to buy some and otherwise stay on the side line.

Gold was today a victim of a great ride too fast and lots of profit taking did happen. Do not forget that one of the main reason gold will continue his upward movement is North Korea and honestly i do not expect a direction change. I would even think that the next ICBM test will be conduct this week end just in time for 9-11.

Stay tuned!

ALERT. RAD

Management changes.......hummmmm

Either deal is not going the way it should or finally management understood where the problem was.

Let see how market react.

ALERT TRADER HOV

Even if i am skeptical about real value of HOV the trading patterns seems to indicates that it is now trying to rebound.

Do not forget that quarterly results are schedule for Thursday before market open so it could be a great opportunity to buy now and sell on the news.

So i did bought some 2 minutes ago.

Yamana Gold is on fire!!!

A whopping 6% gain today and until the North Korea crisis stop, expect more gain to come.

As usual, it is always a great idea to take some profit off the table....after 6% is actually almost 3 years of interest at the bank........

Next stop for Yamana (expect high resistance) is the 4,10$ mark then shortly thereafter (if is gets over that mark) 4,57$

ALERT TRADER MEG (TSX)

MEG floor has been achieved for today. Expect rebound toward 5,28$ for a 2% gain

ALERT RAD

If last couple of weeks trading pattern stays, today's floor could have been reached (2,40$-2,41$) and that means we could expect a rebound toward 2,46$ meaning a possible rapid 2,5% return)

So far today

As expected, North Korea moves have rattled the stock market and at the same time, has made GOLD more interesting as a safe heaven.

This should continue for a while so the best way to work with that is to use stop orders in case of a sudden drop.

Oil (especially MEG on the tsx) is doing great again.

As for Yamana Gold and Meg they are  both at resistance level and ready to pup by another 5-10%

My little friend (RAD) Rite Aid continues its sideway trading and again no great volume so expect it to do same old again......gain a couple, lose a couple.
  

Encanto Potash ready to bounce back ?

Just bought some more EPO (on tsx-V) this morning.

I think it is really close to rebound from it's low toward 15 cents.

Only need 1 real good new.

This week is about to begin

Wondering where this week will lead ?????

Here are some trader ideas for the following sectors:

OIL: Expect a nice jump this week because of Harvey and the coming Irma. This will be very disruptive in nature and the winners will be the one that are not affected and especially in Canada. This should lead to a great price increase for Suncor and Meg Energy (SUN and MEG tsx Canada). These 2 companies are well positioned to gain from those major storms and especially MEG that has one of the lower cost per barrel.

GOLD:  Did i say North Korea ? Whatever the move they does this week it will definitely continue to rattle the world and let GOLD make some good gains. I like the Canadian companies like GoldCorp and Yamana gold. Yamana (YRI tsx or AUY) have the most to gain as they are the most volatile.

Amazon (AMZN) is still climbing toward its 1000$ mark. They are THE most retail disruptive company and acquisitions are not over. I expect something in the pharmacy business in the months to come. So i will stay away from retail stocks except Best Buy (BBY)

Construction sector is still looking for a direction and i expect HOV to go down again.

It is a wait and see week and naturally i will keep you informed.

ALERT TRADER GOLD

From Cnn.com

I know it is a long week end but i had to mention that GOLD seems to make a great upward movement most probably due to the latest move from North Korea.

Even if i still believe in take some off the table because off upward movement, this is a serious issue happening right now and combined with the fact that the FED may not rise interest again this year, GOLD could be seen moving upward of 1400$ very rapidly if patience is one of your principal quality.......

Same could be true for OIL as it could be disrupt if military options were to be exercised or prepared.

So get ready for a very very interesting week.

Long week end coming

Ahead of this very long week end there was lost of profit taking this morning as expected.

Until close of the day, volume should be light but expect some good rebound on gold and oil.

If gold stays over 1325$, this could signal a move up toward the 1350$ mark.

TRADER ALERT Encanto Potash (EPO)

Bids are abnormal today.

Interesting but be careful about a trader trap.

This company is now ready for a turn around.

Friday's update

Overall a great week on many fronts:

For the oil market, Harvey's disrupt totally the USA market and it is now starting to reflect on Canadian companies like Suncor and Meg Energy. Out of those 2, MEG is the one with the lowest cost per barrel so it is the one getting the larger impact. MEG (tsx) now sits at 5$ and would the Texas situation continue for a while, i expect MEG to reach above 6$ after hitting some resistance at the 5,10$ and 5,60$ mark. As usual, getting some profit off the table is always a great idea.

Gold is also starting to reflect the higher tension especially since North Korea fired a missile over Japan. This was a totally insane move and if North Korea was to launch toward Guam base, expect an incredible run for gold. This would reflect on all gold producing companies as this problem could become a longer term annoyance. I like Yamana Gold and Goldcorp as they were hit the worst recently and rebound in gold will profit them more.

Construction is also on the rise but i do not expect HOV to get all attention. I would prefer at this time KBH for their stability over the years.

The FANG stocks: Amazon will test again the 1000$ mark (within a couple of days) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will continue to churn around 950$.

Ford (F) has surprised me but i am still skeptical at this time.

Rite Aid (RAD) seems to have started its come back with nice gains this week and i expect the rally to continue next week.

Wishing a nice week end to all my 30k readers....