ALERT TVI

TVI has just completed his 2nd zinc shipment of the year valued 4,7M$.

So TVI is now getting very close to a 100M$ revenues company and we should hear soon about Balabag feasability study.

Remember that the project is now safe from any ban on open pit mining as per provincial legislation.

I think 2012 will rock this one up

ALERT LVS

LVS has been advised that the investigation has been concluded and that no further action will be taken against the Company at this time in Honk Kong. Still more investigations are underway but this is great news.

Complete story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577106401261860634.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

ALERT CTL

Based upon today's new in regard of interest payment being deferred, it is preferable to hold on to your position.

If you bought recently, your average cost would be in the 0,05 to 0,06 and the possibilities are still very high for a default or a bankruptcy procedures. Therefore, i would use any rally to sell some shares to try to obtain a close to 0 average cost (the free shares concept) and hold to them until final resolution.

But with the actual pulp and paper problems all around the globe, the chances that CTL would get some kind of re-financement without wiping all actual shareholder value, is very very low.

CTL is now a highly risky speculative buy and for the coming weeks it will be into the hands of speculators.

You can play the game but be extremely cautious. Odds are not in CTL favor (or shareholder favor).

As of today, Canadian dollar has lost about 10% sinc July, demand has been stabilizing somewhat and this quarter should have been at least break-even. So what happen? They had about 18M$ in cash and close to 108M$ in credit line available. What else do they know that we do not at this time? How went the first 2 months of Q4 ? Are they really that bad? What is 2012 outlook ?


I will ask and try to obtain answers.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.

ALERT UWN

UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos ) will published their 2nd quarter for 2012 next week on the 15th and this could really well be the beginning of a quarterly net profit era.

Based upons results from Q1 2012 and last year Q2 results, the following items should reflects improvement

- interest expenses should have decreased based upon new loan agreement with Wells Fargo
- Total revenues should have increase because of the first complete quarter of Red Dragon

So, even if gross revenues from other properties were to stay flat compare to last year, overall revenues should have increased by a 5-10%, interest expenses should have decrease significantly and adjusted EBITDA should be in the 800K$ to 950K$ range and net profit in the 0,01 to 0,02 cent per share .

Then if you calculate the actual net value per share, even by removing completely the good will value, UWN is still valued at 14M$ with on hand cash (including restricted cash) over 7,5M$ for a 1,03$ value per share and a 2,26$ value per share if we include the good will value.

I still believe that we could be in for results that would beat my expectations and therefore providing a good share value increase. Do not forget also that the slot machine run deal that will close in Q3 2012 will add great profit and if Washington was to allow slot machines in their state in a near future, UWN could be set to sky rocket rapidly as they would be well positionned to be licensed for a 1250 machine and a 85M$ in revenues increase (based upon their last presentation). Now imagine how the net profit would look like ! UWN share value increase that would arise from a decision like this one could be similar to the one experimented by MPEL due to revenues increase in Macau.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.  

ALERT TVI

Very good news this morning in regard of Balabag project as it will not suffer from the same problems as Canatuan with tentative bans from local due to a provincial resolution that Bayog cannot prohibit legitimate mining firms to excercise their rights over mining sites.

This is most probably the best new to hit TVI since many months.

To get the complete story, here is the link:

http://interaksyon.tv/article/19073/zambo-del-sur-govt-invalidates-order-banning-open-pit-mining-in-bayog-town

Also all other very interesting news are available on TVI official web site under ORDINANCE.

Still do not forget to visit my friends at:

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT INT

Some time ago  CVE:INT was added into my top speculative move and today, INT will be added to my top pick list for 2012.

The reasonning behind that is the fact that their product (namely Ortsbo) has had an customer based increase absolutely phenomenal and that the management team is now focused to provide a complete solution in the entertainment sector.

With all the moves that were done recently, it would be very surprising that revenues would not follow.

If INT was to achieve an EPS of only 0,01 or 0,02, with the actual evaluation of social medias like Facebook being at about 50 times earning, it is easy to believe that INT would be easily north of 1,75 rapidly.

Naturally at this stage of their growth it is still largely speculative but customer interest is there, investor interest is there and product/value is there.

If management continue to do what they had in the past, well there is absolutely no reason why INT could not be a 400% winner in 2012.

This is why INT is now one of my pick for 2012.

Naturally do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always always take some profit when price indicate that.

TVI UPDATE

TVI completed another shipment today for another 12M$ in revenues. Great Job.

Now here is my update in regards of Q3 2011

Q3 results were surprising to say the least.

I was very surprise by the sudden decrease in production cost. From 1,65$ to 1,33$ was a major improvement (roughly 20%)  in 1 quarter.

Naturally that improvement trend is not sustainable and I think that cost will remain at about 1,33$ for the next 1 or 2 quarters .

The great cost improvement was essentially the major factor allowing TVI to achieve 3M$ in profit during Q3. If they can ship copper and zinc on time, TVI could again show a good profit in Q4  (before oil asset write off).

But the biggest factor that strokes me was the fact that mine life was decreased only by .1 during the quarter due to the blend with mineral that was not include in the original ore reserves. If that trend was to continue, it could easily expand Canatuan mine life by a couple of years and this would be fantastic.

Look also at gold and silver produced as the grades were quite high and the best of the year.

The overall shareholder equity has increased by almost 10M$  compared to December 2010 and accumulated deficit is now standing at only 1,4M$. This is a very good indicator of TVI’s financial health at this moment.

In regard to the cash on hand, 23M$ is a huge pile of money and even if all low interest short term loans were to be repaid, they would still be left with money in the bank.

What it is telling me is that the cash flow generated by Canatuan is enough to finance Balabag bootstrap without additional long term loan at high cost.

We should not also underestimate Malasok and SE Malasok as they could encounter significant reserves there also. It would be very surprising that Canatuan would be the only part of the area having enough mineral to be a profitable mining site.

TVI also mentioned that they were still pursuing other possibilities and they now have the money needed to go ahead with some other major mining companies out there. It would be purely speculative at this time to name them or try to identify the projects but looking at all the different and recent press releases there is at least one interesting project where TVI could be associated with.

In regard to Canatuan, we all know what happen with the provincial government and that a ban was established to take effect in November 2012. TVI has mentioned that they will take all possible legal actions against that illegal ban and I think they have a good chance to win their case and if otherwise, I think that Balabag will already be in operation at that time avoiding some months without any revenues.

Also interesting to note is that TVI is for the second quarter in a row a 100M$ company and this is absolutely not reflecting in the share value. Again major price disconnect between share value and share price and still a lack of interest from the buyers as volume is unbelievably low.

TVI sold Alaska right after the quarter for a price almost double of what was paid for Alaska, Niger and Philippine properties when you include all the credits they also received. Naturally some write off will have to take place but it is not affecting cash position being only book value for properties that have been sold. The high interest loan was also repaid in full. (LIM loan)

Now, for Balabag, it is clear that the 43-101 is late and has been pushed many times. But is this something that they absolutely needs? For the investors’ confidence it is a yes but because they do not need any financing to develop Balabag, it is not the most important thing at this time. Based upon remarks and financial statements page 20,  (item 15) it is clearly stated that Balabag expenses have started to be capitalized. I think the message right there is very clear: Balabag will be a mine!

So what are the different scenarios for 2012:

BEST: Ban on Canatuan is lifted and TVI is able to increase mine life to about 3 years with ore not coming from indicated resources. Canatuan should be able to generate another 10M$ in net profit per year and a 100M$ gross revenues. Then Balabag should be in production near year-end 2012 adding up a 5-10M$ in revenue (maybe a 5000 ounces in Q4 2012).

WORST: The ban is not lifted and Canatuan must cease operations end of 2012. TVI will still had pocketed 7-8M$ in net profit and 80M$ in gross revenues. Q4 would be a bit difficult with only 1 shipment from Canatuan before closure and minor revenues from Balabag.

If we add up all the other possibilities from JV, new prospects, Tamarok, Malasok etc, it would be very surprising that TVI would not be able to succeed in 2012. It is third world mining and we never know exactly what could happen (or we would be all very rich persons) but I still think that TVI has a great chance of success over there as they already prove with their Canatuan operations and no matter what will happen in Canatuan, TVI will still be a profitable mining company and results from Balabag by itself will be a lot more valuable than the actual value affixed to TVI. Producing gold in the Philippines has nothing to do with operations in North America. Cost to produce gold is very low and ore reserves are there. I do not see any reason for TVI to fail at that project. Remember that TVI has a lot of experience in producing gold (referring to Gossan mines from 2004-2008)

In conclusion I think that TVI is still a good buy, Q4 could be another solid quarter (before 1 time event) and future is bright.

PS: DO not forget to visit my friends at :

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT CTL

CTL (tsx) has been added to my top pick speculative plays.

They have announced today a major 200M$ loss BUT at the same time their quarter is a lot better than Q2. With a bit of luck they could have ended up break even.

Q4 is normally a strong quarter for CTL and i am now wondering what was the real reason to write off their mill COMPLETELY on Q3 instead of Q4??? (as normally companies would do to clera the numbers for the coming year)

Their results altough not totally impressive, were in the right direction and unless they totally miss their Q4, they should come out with a small profit in Q4.

This is their last presentation and it is absolutely interesting (in regards of the facts)

http://www.catalystpaper.com/sites/default/files/2011-11-14earnings-prest_0.pdf

Time will tell but at this level (0,075) i am a buyer. Risk is very low and possibilities are great: take over, profit margin increases etc. You can probably mention 10 more.

I was a buyer at 0,25, was still at 0,15 and now at this bargain price i will definitely reduce my average cost a lot.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing

UPDATE DRL

What a huge miss did DRL posted for it's Q3. Totally unpredictable.

Hope the down slope will stop rapidly. Already closing near the 1$ limit. If it goes under, it could signal time to sell some to limit losses and get some liquidity to buy it back cheaper.

I still think that DRL will be part of a deal to restraint the number of banks in Puerto Rico.

ALERT DRL

What a bad quarter and a huge miss for DRL. Market reaction was correct given the loss at -,023 and estimates were -0,01.

Will have to minotor closely and take decision if it goes under 1$. If it does, it would be time to unload slowly but surely. It could even be a good time to sell on a positive dip.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just announced that they have sold their Alaska oil assets for 16M$. When you add about 5M$ received in credit recently it means that they have received close to 2 times what was paid for 1 year ago. Not a bad deal overall.

It also means a couple of things: Philippines oil assets are now free and if anybody was wondering how they would finance Balabag, well now we may have the answer.

Also very important to note is that 6M$ loan will be repaid totally.

That is a very prudent move considering the fact they would have had to invest more money with the partners to finally know what was lying under North Tan and I think that any $ that would have been spent out there would not have been the best move especially when you need money to finally build and start the Balabag project.

Very interesting also is the note in regard to a enhance join venture or an acquisition. Is there anything else in the work?

Q3 MD&A will be very very interesting to analyse !

UPDATE UWN

UWN will issue more shares and dilute somewhat actual shareholders but keeping in mind that this is to pay for a new acquisition, it does make sense as dilution factor should be less than profit upgrade.

It has been way oversold and if you were awaiting a dip to get into UWN, it could very well be the time.

Welcom WPX to my top picks

With announcement of a NI43-101 indicating a fantastic potash reserve, the is no doubt that WPX will be a winner this year or early 2012. (see their press release)

They have already mentionned that they hope to advise about a strategic partnership before year end and i think that in conjonction with that latest release, it will increase a lot their share value.

Still a bit speculative but great return in sight.

Estimated value before year end 2011: 2,25$ and 6$ by year end 2012 if merger (or JV) happen early 2012.

Welcome aboard WPX.

ALERT BPOP

Afeter an incredible volume of 54M shares traded on friday (average is around 10M shares) today has been somewhat difficult BUT it seems that finally some have read properly the last quarter results: THEY MADE NICE PROFIT.

Sure was less than last quarter but when you remove 1 time item and add special commercial loss provision of this quarter, well BPOP is in very very good shape.

With consolidation that will be coming in Puerto RIco (there are too many banks) this will only help BPOP.

ALERT UWN

Nevada Gold and Casino

UWN has just signed an agreement to purchase a slot route operator in Deadwood for 5,2M$.

When this transaction will be completed, UWN will ad about 1,25M$ in EBITDA (within 3-4 months).

This is a large EBITDA increase and i find it interesting that they are now into the slot machine business just a couple of weeks before Washington starts wondering about the possibility of legalizing these in the state where UWN does have many small casinos. Hummmmmmmmmmm.

To follow closely !

UWN UPDATE

Did you notice?

UWN has been slowly but surely climbing back to the 2$ mark on steady volume. For sure it is far from the 100K volume they saw some weeks ago but based upon some technical data relative movement is showing improvement in the number of buyers and relative strength is getting better.

Keep in mind that with a low number of shares available, this one could fly rapidly.

Also please remember that on Oct 10th Wells Fargo agreed to refinance 11M$ of their existing debt and extend the remaining 4M$ until 2015. The loan (that will mature in 2014) will retire outstanding debt that were to mature in 2012 and 2013 giving a very interesting position to UWN to use their next 3 years cash flow to do some more acquisitions and increase substantially their annual gross revenues. It is very very interesting to note that UWN was able to capture Wells Fargo attention and based upon the fact that Wells Fargo is one of the biggest USA bank i would not be surprised to see their analysts pick up UWN story and that being the case, i would prefer to be an actual investor instead of trying to catch them up later on the rise. If UWN would have been researching a great business partner, they may have just found them. Wells Fargo has been long time recognized as a bank that understand the small to mid-cap size business needs and have been involved around the USA for many of these small loans. Wells Fargo is one of the most well managed bank (they even refused TARP but were force to accept it) and especially now where capital available is still hard to find, I am convinced that they did their home works before approving a loan to UWN. By itself it is a confirmation of the very good financial situation of UWN

This change by itself should give UWN some fuel to achieve my share price expectation of 4$ within the end of the year. I know it sounds very aggressive but a great result for Q2 2012 could be enough and as mentioned in my last evaluation I expect that UWN could generate 16M$ in gross revenues, 1M$ in EBITDA and a 0,03 to 0,05 per share net profit. Anything over would be the catalyst to 4$ share price rapidly and with the next release due somewhere in mid-December, Christmas party could be earlier this year!!!

They have a great business model (almost unique) and management seems to be very passionate about their plan.

I remember that some time ago (in 2010) I mentioned a casino pick that was very interesting in march 2010 (MPEL) and it was trading at about 4,38$ at that time. MPEL achieved 16$ earlier this year for a close to 400% run. I was really surprised when Jim Cramer (CNBC) mentioned that he did not saw MPEL coming. So get ready for a second hit in the casino business. UWN will rock.

So for these reasons, UWN has now been upgraded to #4 for top pick for the remainder of 2011 and Q2 report will speaks for my 2012 year picks dues around January 15^th 2012.

(Still thinks they are missing a letter in their ticker name: should be UWiN)

UPDATE TVI

TVI reported today that they have completed shipment #24 for gross revenues close to 15M$ and over 1,25K tons of copper concentrate remaining in inventory. Also worth noting is the total zinc already produced that should be shipped end of december. Actually this is money in the bank.

The value of the shipment is very high when you look at copper price today against 6 weeks ago.

If cost remained under control (even a bit lower) we could have some positive surprise when Q3 results are published.

I had estimated about 1M$ in loss but could be a little less.

Interestingly, even when copper price have dropped by more than 25% recently, the share price (even if actually very low and disconnected against share value) the share price did remain pretty stable.

It would not need a lot to move higher as resistance over 0,06 is really low.

UWN the reason behind this new top pick

When small is beautiful: That could be the story of Nevada Gold & Casino Inc.

When I indicated that this corporation was under my radar last year (stock was trading at 1,07$ at that time) I was far from believing that suddenly with some great acquisitions, that company could double its share price and that I would still believe that it was only the beginning. Think about that: market crash, unemployment in the 9%, no economic growth and your company double its market cap??? You definitely must have done something right and here is what I found and by the way based upon recent market activity, I am no longer the only one that is starting to be interested into that success story.

Naturally we should not compare UWN to some largest company like LVS, MPEL or WYNN as they are clearly not competitors. But it is very important to note that the entire entertainment sector has been very profitable lately especially in gambling outside the United States and this is where UWN does make a difference. They have been able to create their own niche in a very difficult market. So, what is this all about?

UWN owns and manage small scale casinos almost directed toward the clientele of Mr. everybody that does some gambling for fun and in an environment very friendly where customer seems to be the number one priority. One point that I should mention is the fact that all employees from their newest acquisition (Red Dragon) went to a customer service training seminar almost immediately after they finalized the acquisition.

It would also be very difficult to compare with any other company as there is not too many that are operating that kind of mini casinos and operating more than 1.

So, what should we expect form UWN ?

They have the intention to acquire some casinos in Nevada and it could add some 3-4M$ for each unit they buy BUT it could add to the total debt already in the 15M$ range.

And debt is one problem to come with some being due in 2012 but their latest association with Wells Fargo to find a refinancing solution could ease that one out if negotiations are successful. If they were to find a new loan agreement covering all the debt and at better terms and at somewhat a bit lower interest rate, this could give them a break and allow them to breathe easier.

On the other hand they have the right to issue up to 20M$ in stock and this would cover more than the total debt load leaving even some more money for other acquisitions.

If UWN consolidate their actual assets and integrate them rapidly they should be able to generate a lot more net revenues and be ready for some more expansion AS LONG as they do not have to overspend in company management. At this point, it would not be wise to get that expansion in areas that they do not operate actually due to overhead expenses.

So here are my expectations for Q2 2012 if everything goes as expected:

-          Net EBITDA of 1M$ (increase provided by increase in earnings, expenses staying at current level in % , lower management and legal expenses)

-          Earnings of 16M (due to the revenue increase from Reg Dragon)

-          Net revenue per share of 0,03 to 0,05

They will definitely continue to be very aggressive in their development and as long as they stay within their ‘know how’ range there are no doubt that UWN will be a great winner in 2012. Markets will stabilize, unemployment will get better and consumer confidence will be brighter. All the needed elements will be in place to send UWN on track for a record year.

For these reasons, UWN is now a top pick for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012. Price expectations are within 2,90$ and 3,70$ before December 31^st 2012 for a decent 50% to 100$ return.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own due diligence before investing.

Week ahead

It will be very interesting to watch the first couple of trading days. last week was a great one were even unemployment was unable to derail the bull but i would not be very surprise to see at least one day where market will try to test who will win: bears...bulls....

TVI should give some update on the expected shipment. I think we should know by wednesday.

Regional banks could continue to rise modestly but surely this week (BPOP, FBP, DRL) and i still think there are some rumors going on in the Puerto Rico banking sector where 2 should merged: DRL and FBP. Who will buy the other ??? Either case we win

LVS, MPEL and our newly member UWN should continue to rise this week. Keep a clsoe eye on UWN. After releasing a very good quarter last week, some volatility was seen on thursday and friday when some profit taking happened. Expect a rebound.

BZH could be helped by the numbers to be released this week and at this time it is pretty undervalued.

Lot more action to come so stay tune.

WPX has been added to UNDER THE RADAR picks

WPX:TO could be a great addition if it's share price continues to hold in the 1,15$ to 1,30$ range. Otherwise, if price continues to decline or if insider selling continues, i would wait until 0,75 to get into that company in a very agressive way.

At this time, it is not clear of the profitability of their project and until the feasability plan is completed it will be difficult to assess the real value of this one.

For the moment it is more of a speculative but based upon the 43-101 it could be profitable and there could be a lot of volatility between now and the feasibility project that should be released mid 2013.

As usual any interesting event should move WPX from under the radar to a top pick but the conditions needed are the following (as for any other stocks UNDER THE RADAR):

- fluctuation of share price minimal to avoid trying to catch a falling knife
- a sudden price increase at this stage would be considered speculative move and wihout a press release it will not be considered to be moved to TOP PICKS
- Regular press releases concerning updates on land, feasibility advances could trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Price stabilization and lack of volatility could also trigger a move to TOP PICK
- Insiders buying in large quantity would move WPS to TOP PICK after prices is stabilized
- Volume increase (buying pressure) for some weeks could move it to TOP PICK
- Any other VERY positive news could also move WPX to top pick

As usual, never invest more money than you can afford to lose and ALWAYS do your own due diligence before investing in any company.

ALERT UWN

Their Q1 results are really impressive as this is normally a quiet quarter. Based upon these results, expect another good share price increase.

After listening to their quarterly conf call, i can only imagine what would happen if Washington would allow slot machines to be part of casinos in that state. There are no promises about that but with State finances being what they are (really bad) i would not be surprised to see some kind of approval in return for some good tax $.

Volume is still high (for UWN) and i think that Q2 will be again better due to their new acquisition gettting good steam.

A complete review should come sometimes this week-end. Stay tune! 

ALERT UWN

Volume as picked up recently and there is a lot of buying pressure. Either somebody know something or many more investors are now discovering UWN.

No matter which one it is, it seems very positive.

OCNF is delisted from my top picks

Based upon recent developments and economy still lagging, OCNF is no longer part of my top picks and my position has been sold.

UWN a diamond in the rough. Welcome to my list

Ok...Economy is still in the negative territory and finding great value stocks is still very difficult. But UWN could be the next one in the gaming industry to answer my criterias.

They will be releasing their numbers for Q1 by september 15th and i expect some very very good news.

EBITDA is increasing faster than gross revenues and this is a sign of good management.

Their last quarter did showed high increase in all aspect of the business and i am almost convinced that Q1 to be reported will be another positive surprise.

Complete analysis will follow their 2012 Q1 reports but to me UWN will rock the place!

ALERT QE3

It seems that at this time there will be no more money printing from the US fed.

That is great news. Let the market correct itself without government intervention.

With some good fiscal policy and some help for new homeowner, economy will get back on track rapidly. 

Have we reach a bottom

I am close to declaring a bottom on the market.

VIX index is getting lower and gold is getting a well deserved correction.

If tomorrow we see a decrease again in the VIX and another 50--100$ drop in gold i will be inclined to say we have achieved a bottom.

In any case, bottom fishing is still great and there are still way undervalued stocks actually: BPOP for 2$, DAN for 11,61$   Ford for 10,45$ and the list goes on.

I would not use all cash asides to buy immediately, but i have already start buying since last friday one smll step at the time and buying on the down dips.

Market craziness is not over but i think it is now safe to get back in and those that are still thinking about going back in recession: i do not think so.

ALERT Puerto Rico banks

I think we can call a near bottom in the case of DRL and BPOP and a 3,50$ for FBP.

This market has already oversold most of the US banks and these 3 are now on sale at the price well below book value:

BPOP     2.07 = 0,61 of their book value
DRL       1.37 = 0.37 of their book value

FBP        3.46 = 0.13 of htteir book value

Sure Puerto Rico is having a hard time recovering from the last recession and it may take another year but at these prices, it is worth to start accumulating on the down dips. Expectations of profits are within the next 12 months:

BPOP       5,75$ (this is the one where it is absolutely oversold)
DRL         2,72$
FBP          5,25$

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose and consult your financial planner before investing in any stocks.

UPDATE TVI

What’s up with TVI ?

Last quarter report was not as expected, to say the least, but even then there were some good realisations that obviously were overshadowed by other very disappointing items.

Let’s start with the bad one:

-          The costs of chemical products seem to be rising. I think the zinc copper separation was actually harder to achieve than originally thought. The price received for the zinc is offsetting a good part of those rising supply cost and did increase total cost to produce.

-          The fact that ship had to be re-route to Europe instead of China created the worst problem. Easy to figure out that the cost to send 5000dmt to China is by far less costly than to Europe. Looking at the details, this expense ruined the quarter and I do not see any changes for at least 1 or 2 more shipments allowing TVI enough time to find a new smelter nearer Philippines.

-          Overall debt is getting higher. Some debts are a necessity but at this time increase the debt level could be suicidal. When water is running, grab a bucket but now it is time to say enough: no more room for the buckets.

-          Cash is getting lower even if TVI is STILL cash flow positive for the quarter. It simply means that they used more cash than it generated. Maybe time to assess where the money is going. To their defense there is an 284K loss due to foreign currency translation. If this was due to can$ being at 1,045 average for the last quarter, TVI could get a break on this one for Q3.

-          Very high total cost per pound equivalent most probably due to first shipment in Q2 that must have been completed when zinc flotation was not perfect and when they were experimenting a lot of different recipes of the refinement of those recipes. Still total cost per pound is higher.

-          I do not expect any profit in Q3. I expect a 1M$ loss and maybe a break even for Q4 meaning a loss for the year as I do not think TVI would be able to generate a 3M$ net earnings in Q4 unless they find a new smelter before end of Q3 for shipments in Q4.

Now the good one:

-          Cost to produce copper is going down (do not mix with total cost per pound) and should offset a good part of higher expenses

-          Mill is running at high capacity

-          Copper % is very high at 23% (average)

-          1^st  zinc shipment to be reported in Q3

-          2^nd Flotation circuit to be added that should help again lower cost per pound and increase quality of copper con and zinc con. 

-           % of copper of 1,24 (lot higher than estimated average). Remaining mine life was averaging 1,07% but we see that there is still higher copper grade available to be mined.

-          High gold grams per tons (for Canatuan it is very good)

As for Tamarok results, well it is a neutral one. They were drilling the outcrop and as suspected nothing of importance out there. THIS IS NORMAL. With the size of Tamarok, it is easy to expect many hundred drilled holes before having the right picture of this huge area. As far as I am concerned, I would not expect any updates before 2012 and as of today, this is not priority number 1.

Increasing mine life at Canatuan is the number 1 priority then it is Balabag. No surprise there.

A note about share dilution. It is false to state that TVI went from 479M shares in December 2010 to 622M shares because of TGE acquisition. 76M of those shares were options already acquired by LIM when they financed TVI for Canatuan in exchange for a 15% stake in the company. So these options could have been materialized without the purchase of TGE.

Now about the options: this is a good new: at the TVI price of today, most of them could not be exercised. About 28M options are over 0,06… and the 8M warrants remaining are at 0,045. So if price stays at this level, we could avoid another partial dilution. As for the issuance of those options, I do not see any problem there. You want the best guys, you need the best guys, then they get the best possible pay when EXCEDING results. (Easy to see when stock price moves higher and the opposite is equally true)

So what is the real picture: as of today: bad on results and great on possibilities. TVI will have to get back to profitability as I am now wondering who will finance Balabag as there are simply no other options unless oil properties were sold to cover start-up cost (I doubt that unless there are great proven resources in Alaska or Niger surprises us) and issuing shares would dilute too much actual shareholder value. So cash flow generated must increase to allow the implementation of this bootstrap mine. Canatuan should be producing until mid-2013 so it should not be a problem to fund Balabag almost completely with cash flow generated from Canatuan.(Do not mix cash flow with earnings because earnings take into account many items that do not have any influence on cash like amortization) as long as expenses stay under control and that no other major surprise arise.

Do I still believe in TVI’s future: Yes BUT at this time I would simply wait for new developments and hold my actual position hoping for the best but planning for the worst. It is time for somebody in charge to stand up, face the music and explain in ‘real’ English what is going on, what are the plans to correct those problems because margin of error is getting lower by the day and only then will shareholder be able to take a decision: keep or liquidate position.

But do not get me wrong: Balabag could become a cash cow (as did Canatuan) and we will find out as soon as the 43-101 is released, any other oil discovery would change the pattern instantly, (I say other discovery as we all know they found oil in Alaska but the unknown is how much), any 3-4 years mine life addition to Canatuan would fix part of the problem and we can go on and on. The possibilities are great but confidence is running low and the market tends to agree as we are now back to September 2009 share price.

Still not the right time to panic and still could be a great time to average down the price. But, overall it is certainly the time to get the right answers from the top officer because after all Mr James is working for us, the shareholders and we deserve to know.

I remember having been asked in the past why I would still push TVI and my answer was that until it did 2 consecutive quarters in increased negative earnings, I will still keep my target for TVI (or any other company on my top list).

Come on TVI, come on Mr James YOU can do a lot better than that.

ALERT TVI

With the posting of their last quarterly report, TVI has now been in negative for 2 quarters in a row.

They had great revenues but unfortunately expenses especially milling mining and other expenses went exponentially.

So at this moment, i would put TVI on hold until further clarification. 

Tomorrow is friday. In the good old 2008 and 2009, it was very often sell off fridays.

So for tomorrow i would watch for the DOW to test the 11,100.

If right after the opening bell, it goes under 11,100 watch for 10850. If it dows not hold, we could be retesting the lows of wednesday at about 10,700.

This market is still very sensible to any kind of news and we do not know what week-end could bring.

Because of the fact that (i think) there is a 2 for 1 probability of a down leg tomorrow many traders could be tempted to liquidiate some positions in case of an early morning rally. So if you bought some at a very cheap price yesterday or early today, WAIT before adding some to it. Tomorrow could still be very tricky and honestly i do not think that volatility is over nor this is a rally starting. Too early and no capitulation YET ! 

Is this the bottom

NO !

Expect some more turbulence today and friday especially if employment numbers are worst than 410K.

We have not seen as of yesterday the capitulation yet and it will take a huge selloff to fix it all.

It is still the right time to start shopping but again not the right time to buy all at the same time: you want 1000 shares of company XYZ then go ahead and buy 250. It could very well be worthed to 10$ in fees you will have to pay more.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE

Buyers beware

The yoyo game that market is playing now is another good exemple of market traps. Very often after a huge drop will you see a sudden come back only to go down the day after.

So with that in mind, stay focus on stock VALUE. For example WFC is a steal at today's price even if it was to go down by another 5%. If you have a 2-3 years planning, this could be the occasion to take your time and invest slowly: you want 100 shares of WFC? Then go ahead and buy 50. Yes you may have to put in another 10$ in fees but could give you another shot at the can if stock goes down again. If it goes up suddently: WAIT before buying the other 50. It could well be another trap.

Do not expect the market to be up tomorrow with a 400 point rally and keep it this way forever... It may well rebound tomorrow if employment data is at about the same level (400k-415k) but if for any reason it was to be over 450K get ready for another HUGE drop as it would be almost a confirmation of another recession or double dip recession.

Personnally i do not think we are heading toward another recession but actually this is a market of fear. Remember that whenever there is fear get greedy and the oppsite is also true.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

Where are we heading

I expect the markets to rebound somewhat this week up until friday and if employment numbers are under 400K for this week, then we could imagine a rally and if they are not it could be another drop at least equal to gains from today to thursday.

Overall the market is totally oversold and near if not at the bottom now.

I have seen panic selling yesterday and even this morning futures are really highly volatile.

That being said, remember right after the selloff in march. 1 month ago when you were looking at share price at that time many would have dream to have bought a lot more. Well, we are at these levels now: DAN at 11$, Ford at 10$, LVS at 37$ and so on.

I think it is time to get back in slowly but surely. If you would buy 1000 DAN today, i would start by a 25% chunk and see what happen during the week.

In any case, never invest more than you can afford to lose and if your are investing for a 3-5 years, well this is it: bargain time !

Market Update

Time to get back to work...

We have been slammed recently with all kind of problems and friday S&P rating USA AA+ is nothing to help.

But, if you have invested in companies that are well undervalued you may have suffered a bit more recently  and up and down swings are not over. Expect great volatility early this week and a terrible monday morning trading session. HANG IN THERE. It is not the time to throw out the towel. You have not loss anything until you sell. Now imagine if you were on the speculator side and fully invested in comapnies that are worthless: you could be slammed a lot more.

Some may be tempted to sell on the early opening monday but it could be a great mistake. Most of the buyers will be on the sideline knowing that many will try to get out at any price.

So if there is one place to be tomorrow: it is on the buying mode right after the early crazyness stops.

Remember why you bought the companies you bought. Remember what were the price you were looking for before starting to sell. Do you think it has changed that much???

Do you think that for example DAN that was trading at 19$ recently is now worth only 13$ because of USA problems? No way. It may take some time but i think that it is actually the second biggest chance to get into the market at heavily discounted price in less than 3 years. Opportunities will be there tomorrow morning for those who are ready to accept some great swings in value over the next 3 months but who are looking at the longer term picture.

Expect some more updates tomorrow on many of my top picks.

UPDATE TVI

Reading the posts all around the place today i think we are in need of some clarification between large mineralisation and economical to drill.

Remember that gold is actually at a very high price and even if that could change, some area of Balabag is now economical to drill.

There is some hole where there were no mineralization at all and if I am correct this is where all infrastructures will be installed and built. Nobody would like to build that kind of infrastructure where there is the most gold. That would be silly.

Now, the results by themselves are telling me that they are ok and some areas are great. Unfortunately they will not and could not comment any further as they need a 43-101 to be included with any comments more than what was already said this morning on the press release.

One thing that strikes me is the 12 more holes since the cut –off date (June 30^th) and these are interesting. Why would you continue to drill unless there were in a very interesting area? Unfortunately TVI will not comment on these drill holes for legal reasons (and selective disclosures rules) but these seem interesting.

Now if they were to be in a higher range of grams per ton, I would not mind waiting 4-5 more weeks to get those drill holes included. Anyways, a 43-101 usually takes between 45 and 60 days to be produced.

But as far as I am concerned, their main objective of defining the 50,000 ounces to start up a bootstrap mine has been achieved. Now let’s go to the needed 43-101 report, start building the mine and we should see some gold going out of there somewhere at the end of Q4-2012. I mention Q4 because we never know what can happen and sometimes in the mining industry you get surprises. So instead of expecting large gold volume in Q3, I would imagine they will be under commissioning for the latest part of 2012 then the real thing will happen in 2013. (Remember zinc was a lot longer than expected even if they tried really hard to have it running at best possible % the first time. Mining is mining)

Without having all the facts in regard of the 43-101 it will be very difficult to establish for sure any economic data for that mine BUT I think that I could say that the price per ton to produce will hover around the 350-375$ per ton (again, we do not have the complete 43-101 and feasibility project) and they should be able to produce around 60,000 ounces per year (after commissioning) for a period that will vary between 6-8 years depending of gold price as the higher it is going to be even the lowest grade area will become economical and profitable. (Based upon original 43-101 and no added gold from the last drills)

But at 1600$ per ounce we are now talking about a project that will be over 500M$ IN PROFIT over the mine life is conditions stays at what they are.

Anybody that want to join the party is welcome !

ALERT TVI

Tvi has announce their drill results from Balabag.

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Pacific-Provides-Additional-Drill-Results-From-the-Balabag-Gold-Silver-Project1126024/default.aspx

More to come tonight

The weeks ahead

Get ready for a very chompy market until a deal is reached by the US government on debt ceiling.

I think they will wait until the last minute to announce a deal and anybody having some cash on hand will be able to get some real bargain near the end of the month.

I also expect the us dollar to be on the down side vs the Canadian $ so if some profit can be madein cad$ it could be an interesting idea to buy some US stock (if you believe that us will reach a last minute deal)

If that deal was not to be reached on august 2nd, get ready for a major index free fall and again good profit to be made on many large us corp especially in the banking sector.

As usual NEVER invest more money than you can afford to lose and always ALWAYS take some profit when conditions arise. Nobody has ever been in trouble for cashing profit!

UPDATE DRL

It will be very interesting to see how DRL performed during Q2 and i would not be surprised to see a great jump in earnings.

Those who bought when DRL were at 1,25$ are now facing a dilemna: sell now before earning releases or profit from a surprise in DRL results.

As usual it is always safe to cash in some profit but i think DRL is ready to hit a home run so be careful EVEN if share price drop a bit after the release because after all they already had a great run so far this year.

my rating   BUY   price target 12 months 6$

UPDATE TVI

Hope you saw TVI price climb from 0,07 to 0,095 in a small period of time.

Nice gains along the way. Now the question is will the trend continue?

I personnally think so but we still need to see major buying volume as share have increase by close to 40% with relatively low volume.

With all projects that are soon to come a reality, there is still a major share price increase possibility for TVI.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canda shares have been taking a beating in the last few months wondering where it is going.

At the end of Q1 2011, AC.B had 2.1B$ in cahs (or cash equivalent) meaning over 9$ per share. What is the share price now???

Sure the possibility of a strike is looming, the fuel price has been higher (but most probably it's impact is well over exagerated) but passenger seat mile is higher.

All together, i think AC.B is actually well over sold and fear has a lot to do with that.

If Ac.b was to test it's 1,61$ level and going under, get ready to pull the trigger and make some shopping at great bargain price.

I still maintain my 6$ 12 month value for this stock meaning it could give a 300% return from today's level.

As usual never invest more than what you can afford to lose.

ALERT TVI

Well today another 300K shares were bought by a director of TVI getting it close to the 900KM shares since may 27th. Even if comments were made at the beginning to the effect that is was small amount of money, we are now talking close to 72K$.


Shares were bought mostly by these 2 directors:

Wayne G. Thomson , B.Sc., Director

Mr. Thomson currently serves as a Director for Cenovus Energy Inc. and Orion Oil and Gas Corp. and is the Chairman and President of EnviroValve Inc. Previously, Mr. Thomson was President of Hadrian Energy Corp. and Gardiner Oil and Gas Limited, both public companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Prior to these appointments, Mr. Thomson held the role of President of Petrocorp Exploration and spent the previous six years at the Alberta Energy Company.

Mr Thompson has bought 400K ( close to 32K$) and as you can see he is greatly involved in oil and gas.

Aloysius B. Colayco , Director

Mr. Colayco is Managing Director of Argosy Partners, Inc., a private investment and advisory firm, and a Senior Partner of Argosy Advisors, Inc. He also serves as President for Level Up! Holdings, Country Chairman for Jardine Matheson, Philippines, Member of the JM Asia Pacific Regional Board, Chairman for Republic Cement (an affiliate of Lafarge), Chairman for Colliers Philippines, Member of the Advisory Board for JG Summit Holdings, Inc. and Senior Advisor for Asia Strategic Capital Fund and Asia Environmental Partners Fund.

As for Mr Colayco, he bought 420K shares for a value close to 33K$ and is involved in capital fund.

We should not forget also Rhonda Bennetto who bought 50K also.

This is a great volume, must mean something and it is worth mentioning especially because there are many blackout periods during which no insider can trade the shares..

As a personal opinion, this could just be the beginning and remember that those shares will probably not put back on the market until TVI flies and to me it has the same meaning as a company buy back shares.

UPDATE TVI

Since the end of may 2011, close to 600K shares were bought by TVI directors.

Most of the time this indicates that something is brewing on the positive side. Also please note that the last shipment was of 24% of copper being by itself a great new.

Zinc shipment will be coming in the near future and we should not forgets Balabag gold mine to receive the go ahead signal in a very near future probably well before end of Q3.

All together, these coming news should have the shares climb back at least to their previous level of 0,135 meaning a close to 100% profit in less than 3 months.

As usual, do not invest more than what you can afford to lose but the disconnect on TVI share price compare to TVI value is incredible and indicates a strong buy signal.

ALERT AC.B

Now at this price this is a bargain. Time to get back in.

ALERT DRL

Well, for those who followed my reccomendation about Doral, it is now time to cash in with over 80% profit.

Today high volume and great increase also means that we maybe in for something larger.

In any case, it is always very safe to cash in when profit this BIG present itself.

Cheers

UPDATE TVI

Tvi has just updated their website with a new look and a very interesting module: oil101.

It is worth stopping by to learn more about Alaska oil out there.

http://www.tvipacific.com/English/RLC/north-slope-map/default.aspx

ALERT MB

Share consolidation has been confirmed to take place before june 10th at the rate of 20 for 1.

This will create some waves and it could be a good time to cash in some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI did went down a lot since last december but still with a low volume. That selling was probably due to some shareholders that did not like the TGE deal.

BUT that selling seems to have loss some steam end of last week and the fact that TVI was able to generate a revenue with only 1 shipment is very good. That was a surprise as i would have thought their earnings to be in the (0,01) to (0,02) per share.

Now what is Q2, Q3 and Q4 should look likes: i would expect 2 or maybe 3 shipments in Q2, 2 in Q3 and 2 in Q4 for another 7 more shipments this year. Sure copper price has been falling but again it seems that China and Japan will need a lot more than expected and will make copper rise back to a 4,20$ level for the rest of the year. Combine that with the fact that TVI has now a zinc circuit that works, it will increase copper % to increase between 21-25% level increasing at the same time total shipment value. So let stay at the lower level of per shipment value of 12M$ (i think more of 13-14M$ per shipment) it means there is another 84M$ in revenues and a very close to 100M$ for this year when Q1 revenues are added. All together it should generate about 0,06-0,09 per share in profit. Do the maths: unless TVI share price hover 0,18 (remember that there is still 2.3 years left of mine life) it will be still undervalued. Now add up some ore discovery, some oil in Alaska and Philippines, Balabag to be confirmed as a go and Tamarok, there is no reason that TVI shares should not explosed to the roof.

Hard to put a value at this time but a junior mining company is valued at range that varies between 15 to 25 times profit. So it could means a share price moving from 0,90 cents when lower earnings and lower evaluation are taken into account and up to 2,25$ if we use upper valuation for net earnings and valuation.

This company risk/ reward ratio is incredible at a price really attractive and totally disconnected from real value.

Those who came on board last year were able to pocket a return of 100% and even those who bought at the high price of 0,135 are still well positionned for a nice profit if any of the actual projects is conclusive: not all of them only one is needed. (Imagine Balabag at 500,000 ounces of gold on a 8 years period could generate about 800$ gross profit PER OUNCE if we think cost per ounce would be about 600$. (Usually it is about 400$). So 800$ profit per ounce* 500,000 ounces = 400M$ / 8 years or  50M$ profit per year. Each 100$ in producing cost under the figure of 600$ per ounce or 100$ in gold price over the 1400$ used would also adds another 6,5M$ per year in profit .

If TVI was to strike all of them with success, it could create some very wealthy people very rapidly. You can own a piece of this company for 0,07...i must be dreaming.

The real question is: actually TVI is facing one major concern and it is that Canatuan mine life is 2,3 years. It means that within the next 27 months they will have to have IN PRODUCTION another mine or added some more ore from Canatuan area to increase total mine life. Can they do it???

For some there is a doubt but when you look at TVI results carefully you will find out what they have accomplished in the last 6 months. Now project that over a 27 months periods and there is no doubt they will accomplish what they need to increase mine life to more interesting numbers from 7 to 10 years.

Sure TGE deal was not accepted from shareholders but now that they have those exploration wells in Alaska, Philippines and Niger (where costs to drill are now 0) what would happen if they were to strike enough oil for production as the question is no longer if they will find oil: THEY HAVE in Philippines and Alaska. The question is how much and is this going to be profitable.

Imagine for a second that the answer is YES to only one of those wells: what would happen to the share price? I could even think that the ones who were totally against their CEO for that deal would be the same to say he was a genius...

Time will tell but actually it is a great play as long as you do not invest more than you can lose. 

ALERT DRL BPOP

Doral Financial has been on the move lately and will have to be carefully watched on monday to see if it is substainable or if the raise will continue. I think a new base will be established around 1,75$ to give enough time to the 200 day average to raise at actual level.

That DRL story is not over and any great results in the next quarter could easily add up a 1 or 2$ to these shares.

At the same time we can see BPOP having problems to get out of the trading range (2,90$ to 3,25$) but remember that BPOP have acquired last year major assets from other failure bank and great increase should be seen somewhere in Q3 or Q4. This is another great opportunity to accumulate.

UPDATE MB

With the Q1 results published, it is clear that Mega Brand is continuing it's recovery at a good pace.

The last days, stock has been oversold as if we compare Q1 2011 to Q1 2010, their profit last year was coming from a 1 tiime event and that being removed, it leasves MB with another great increase. I would eaisly think that MB will complete Q2 with a nil profit per share but Q3 and Q4 will be excellent.

Good time to accumulate

WELCOME UUU

Uranium One (UUU  TSX)  has been added today may 10th on my top pick list.

Looking at the crisis in Japan it could have been easy to think that uranium would be banned for a long period of time but i do not think so anymore.

UUU has been hammered greatly and potential for a 50-60% gain is now right in front of us.

In price = 3,90$ to 4,10$ (if it goes under 3,90$ wait a bit longer)

Profit taking from 5,29$ and up

Welcome UUU

UPDATE PXLW

PXLW have been delisted form my top picks due to their incapacity to increase sales to a level that would generate some profit at this time.

UPDATE TVI

TVI announced today that SIennalynn was not economical enough to continue into that direction.

They also mentionned that they have many other ares identified for further drilling to expand Cnatuan mine life.

I think that it is only a question of time before they 'hit' the right target and enhance the mine life by many years. DO not forget Tamarok and Balabag.

Only these 2 would be more than enough to add many many years of great profitability.

Is it time to sell: no still time to accumulate.

ALERT AC.B

Air Canada has just released a lower than last year loss for Q1 getting closer to a profitable quarter.

Good increase for Q1 and very good outlook for rest of the year.

Check out reaction this morning and be patient as most of the time there is a sell on the news and maybe possible to get some more at about 2,20 to 2,24 AFTER the opening market crazyness.

If you bought in early may last year at about 1,75 this may not be the right time to cash in some profit as i think AC.B is new heading back toward the 3$ mark. 2,95$ would be a good target for profit taking. 

ALERT LVS

LVS did not impressed today with it's results but when you look at it they were not too bad either.

So expect high volatility tomorrow and if volume gets over 50M sahres traded and price below 38$, then it will be an oversold condition and some money could be made there.

ALERT YRCW

Get ready for a major drop with last week-end drop due to refinancing of the company. Actual shareholders will be 'owner' of less than 5% of the actual YRCW.

Hold before coming back but there will be some good money to me made there as volatility will be high but you will need to be fast enough to pocket in profit

ALERT CTL

CTL is going higher today just before results are to be announced.

As a rule of thumb, there is always some sort of leak before and the actual trend even if volume is low is leading me to believe they will be either ok or better.

Ther is not that much resisatance to climb above the 0,30 mark and with just slightly higher volume 0,35 is probable.

ALERT DAN

Another very good quarter for DAN and outlook increase for full year.

DAN is now undervalued and if Q2 is in line with outlook, expect DAN price to be around 25$ early september for another 25% increase. Wait till around 20$ to grab some profit unless you bought well under 10$.

First recommendation for DAN on my blog was when it was priced at about 4,75 $ ( 08-9-09) so as of today it is a gain of close to 400% in 1,5 years. 

ALERT TVI

TVI has just release another good new: the production of zinc has started. Modestly but good separation has been achieved.


Expect better copper % and some revenue for the by product. Also, look at the last shipment value. Very very good.

This is great news.

Here is the link:

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Pacific-Inc-Announces-Shipment-Schedule-Update-and-Zinc-Production-Startup1124970/default.aspx



François

ALERT TVI

TVI just released a new update on alaska oil field and looks very promising. More details to follow.

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Pacific-Inc-Provides-Operational-Update-on-Alaskan-Well1124941/default.aspx

ALERT TVI

TVI has released another great NR about drilling at Tamarok where this could really well be a company maker.

You can read the complete NR by clicking on this link:

http://www.tvipacific.com/Investors/news/News-Release-Details/2011/TVI-Begins-Exploratory-Drilling-on-Its-Tamarok-Copper-Gold-Porphyry-Prospect1124829/default.aspx

François

UPDATE MB

MB announced today that they intends to buy back 20M$ in debenture on wich they are now paying a 10% interest.

This move is really interesting as they simply save 2M$ in yearly interest and that means close to 0,0075 per share profit increase.

Will MB staty where they are NO WAY.

Expect some kind of rally to about 0,65 rapidly.

UPDATE AC.B

Air Canada is now greatly oversold and is trading at 1.87 earnings and 0,39 book value.

In the industries the real numbers are 5 times book value and the nearest P/E ration is 12.85 for Delta Airlines.

So what does it means: time to get in.

Sure oil price is a factor but Air Canada is offsetting that cost by price ticket hikes and i believe that oil actually is high NOT because of demand but because of speculators. So the moment they will decide to pocket their profits (my impression is very soon) watch out for a return for AC.B to the 3,50$ a share meaning there is a 60 to 70% profit in a short to medium time frame.

UPDATE TVI

TVI is now totally oversold as P/E ratio is now at 2 being well under any mining company that produces and profit every month.

I would not be surprised to see a very good come back to 0,11 rapidly as the next couple of weeks will bring results from drilling in Alaska and unless they are bad lucked, there should be some oil over there. The real question is how much?

As for Canatuan and Balabag the news were very good indeed and still no reaction from the market. Unbelievable and i do not thnk it can stays like that for very long.

UPDATE ONSM

Did stabilized today but expect bumpy road for another 2-3 days then good leg up

ALERT TVI

Tvi has just published results from drill holes program (the extended on) that shows very very good mineralization found (gold and silver)

These results support the fact that TVI is a great pick and that we should see a good share price leg up.

UPDATE ALZM

Hope you took some profit last week and you are ready for naother jump this week.

It has stabilized in the 2$ vicinity and could hover there for some days before trying to go over 2,50$ end of this week.

But as with any OTC shares be cautious as sometimes volatility is by far very high.

ALERT ONSM

Something is going on here as the share have skyrocketed by more than 25%.

Is this a natural come back after a hard descend or something else?

No news as of now but already 10% of share float have been traded. This look really good and could well be the time to ring in some profit.

NEW PORTFOLIOS TO BE ADDED

A new 50,000$ portfolio will be added within the next 2 weeks. It will be a very aggressive portfolio with an objective of 35% annual return. Another portfolio should be puslished around May but based only on dividends paying companies with an objective of 12% annual return. Stay stune!

As usual it is not an offer to buy any of those stocks and those portfolio are created only on an information basis.

You shoul always consult your financial advisor before investing and ALWAYS due your own du dilligence.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE.

A new speculative play: ALZM

Always do your own DD before investing but if you have some token left from some other gains and ready to really take a chance, this one could give a good and rapid return on your buck...

Always do your own DD before investing but this one is on fire. I expect some kind of pull back tomorrow but could easily double within a month.

MARKET UPDATE AND FORECAST

Since Japan catastrophic event, it has been a wild ride for mostly all stocks and my picks have suffered a lot.

BUT: in cases like that most of the time fears take control and many stockholders leaves. Buyers being less in numbers it creates a fantastic shopping opportunity.

Look around my top picks and many are at cheap prices.

Expect caution on LVS as i think it will be a falling knife until the actual accusations are cleared. It does not change the company fundamentals but makes buyer a bit nervous. So it is a HOLD at this time.

On thursday MB will reveal their final 2010 numbers and based upon what i see in stores around here, it could have been a great Q4. That being the case expect a great leg up followed by some profit taking. If you are long on MB it is a HOLD at this moment. If numbers are great, hang in there as reward will come 10-15 days AFTER numbers are disclosed.

TVI has been slammed (to say the least). This is probably the most strange stock i have ever had and reccommend. The value disconnect to the share price is totally unbelievable. They are releasing their numbers on friday and they will be good. But the real value in that company lies on the actual expansion and projects that are aligned. Balabag are Canatuan expansion are only 2 that could change the face of this company. We will know really soon. If you are long on TVI well actual stock price says it all. It could very well be the right time to load up.

UPDATE TVI

Based upon last release it is more probable now that they will be listed on HK exchange and this could be incredible as asiatic market are normally reacting very favorably to mining company.

Time will tell.

Welcome AGNC to our top list pick for growth

This company is actually producing a 19% dividend income with mortgages backed by USA.

Very good description of this company here:

http://www.streetauthority.com/a/small-cap-yields-incredible-19-458081

ALWAYS due your own due diligence but seems very interesting for a portfolio based on dividend producing.

How about a close to 20% dividend

Soon to be release is the name of an american company that generates actually 20% dividend almost guaranteed by US government.

Too good to be true?

Stay tuned!

PORTFOLIO IS UP AND RUNNING

The model portfolio has been set up and now up to date

WELCOME ONSM

ONSM  (Onstream Media ) has just been added to my top pick list for 2011

PORTFOLIO CREATION

I will be posting this week the model portfolio i have created based on a 50k$ investment.

Everyday the actual value will be posted on the page 'PORTFOLIO' including picks and quantity hold and cash balance.

Transactions will also be posted on a daily basis.

Stay tune

UPDATE MB

MB is facing a large wall at this present level. If numbers for Q4 are as good as expected, this could lead to a very nice run up to 0,89

ALERT BPOP

As expected last week, BPOP did made a very good come back. Now at resistance level. If it breaks above 3,62 expect a good leg up to around 4$

ALERT BPOP

BPOP just posted a very bad Q4 2010 and it was already represented in share value as most of  it comes from bad loan sold earlier this month where charges were to be applied to Q4 2010.

This will represents a great buy opportunity this morning. Expect BPOP to go down by 10% then time to get back in. Looking at the real value of this Puerto Rico bank makes me think of a close to 5$ before year end.

SOON TO COME

Within the next few weeks a refenrece portfolio will be created with most of this board recomendations.

Even if it is going to be a real portfolio past results are not a guarantee of future results and you should not invest more than you can lose.

This portfolio will be maintained and day to day value would be reprinted every day.

Working also on a new site that will allow members to know transactions at the time they are actually, either programmed (automated fix price orders) or completed. (should be live in the next couple of months)

This will be really fun to watch and you will be able to read my mind at the same time i will react.

ALERT F DAN

They have both established their bottom and expect a rebound

Ford has made it's biggest profit since 2000 and 2011 will be lot better

DAN moved down without any news to go with it. It is mostly connected with Ford as it is their main customer.

ALERT DAN

Dan is now greatly oversold. If it holds around 17,25, then expect a good rebound toward the 18,50$

TVI is my top pick for 2011

TVI is my number 1 pick for 2011


Why: 3 words Siennalynn, Balabag and Tamarok

Some of the notes are from a conference call with Mr. Clifford James and Rhonda Benetto but this document is my interpretation of the call and my personal opinions.

2010 was a good year for TVI and unfortunately share price did not increase as it should have been and many reasons have been expressed but only one is real: mine life extension. TVI is not paying any dividends (nor should they do) as they need the money for drilling and exploring. They also have a large float of shares and it is not helping the share price as they need major investors to buy them in large quantity to see some interesting movement on the share price. This also leads me to believe that maybe in 2011 we could see a share consolidation of about 5 or 10 for 1. If it is done in parallel with a major event (like results from Tamarok or a good oil drill result) the reverse stock split could be profitable for everyone.

They had also mentioned a possible Hong Kong listing in 2011. If that was to be the case, expect some major cost in accountant fees. The listing is not that expensive but all the requirements cost a fortune and me not be necessary at this time. Again it could fit better when combined with the above mentions and the proposed merger with TGE would help as companies that are in the resources field are highly appreciated. (probably even a lot more than in the North America)

The problem actually is the fact that Canatuan mine life remaining is about 2,3 years and not a lot of large funds or investors are willing to invest for a so short period of time. You have to understand that large buyers want some good return on their investment and for more than 2-3 years.

That is exactly what TVI is trying to achieve right now with their fast pace exploration plan: increase mine life.

Balabag scooping and start up plan is due somewhere in Q1 and even if it is not the main project, it will provide TVI with a greater cash flow during 2012 (and over) to go ahead and explore more at Tamarok and many other sites within the area. (I mention 2012 because I do not think that production will be large enough in 2011 to be substantial if there was to be any production. I would suspect some kind of commissioning end of Q4 2010)

Canatuan should also get some expansion with the new Siennalynn area where drilling is actually occurring. This new development is by itself enough to give TVI another 8-10 years mine life if the ore drilled out there is comparable to Canatuan. Remember that Siennalynn is 4 times bigger than the actual Canatuan. I expect an update within Q1 2011 (based upon Nov 2010 TVI presentation)

If enough proven resources are there I think it could be easy to increase the mill processing up to about 3000 tpd (do not need any more permit from government) and, if needed, obtain a limit increase in monthly production up to maybe a 5000tpd. This would need a 2-3M$ in capex

When you combine Balabag 2012 cash flow + new Siennalynn coming incrementally into production (in Q3-Q4 2011) there is no problem to see enough cash generated to do lot and lot of drilling at Tamarok where I think the real thing is. Tamarok could be identical to Tampakan actually own by Xtrada and their proven resources are worth between 1,2B$ to 2,2B$ with 2,4B tons of mineral resources.

Very interesting factor about Tamarok is that TVI is probably not large enough and does not have the needed cash required to go out there alone and will need a partner that could take the form of a JV with a large mining corp. Any drilling starting at Tamarok or jv announcement could easily have the shares sky rocket instantly.

So let’s review resources or, in my opinion what could become resources, in a very near future:

- Balabag: They want to define the best area to start a bootstrap mining operation with 50,000 ounces. Proven resources based upon 43-101 in 2008 = over 500,000 ounces of gold for a total value of 650M$ in total revenues during mine life.

- Siennalynn being 4 times Canatuan and IF ore is of the same quality a very conservative estimate could be over 10M tons and 10 years mine life total value of 650M$ based upon 2 shipments per quarter of 8M$ during 10 years.

- Tamarok being too large of an investment for TVI alone, let imagine a jv where they get a good % royalties and a large capital gain when selling the rights to this area. No actual findings are published yet but if we base our estimations from Tampakan it could be a net present value of 1B$ to 2B$

By looking at these figures it is easy to see another important factor in the real value of TVI. They were unable to go ahead with exploration and drilling until their 2009 loan was repaid totally and they did start to drill only early August of 2010. Within only 6 months they have advance in many areas and great news should be coming in Q1 or early Q2.

Whenever any of the above plans are confirmed expect a very good share movement that will gradually reflect the true internal value of TVI. Remember also that nothing go fast in the mining sector.

Did I mentioned that zinc will become a paid by-product…and at the same time increase copper % in all shipments there after? It is still in the commissioning phase as this is a tricky thing to do but it is worth the wait.

The share price problem is known, the remedy is in place and it will gradually fix the problem.

I should also add some thought about oil and TGE deal. As of now, I am in a favourable position toward that deal after getting an overview of the real value behind TGE and TVI merger. (the main point behind the conference call) At first it did sounds very strange because of Mr James being the ceo for both companies (even if Mr James was not part of the 2 committees that finalized the merger proposition).

But:

TGE does have some interesting assets and is an exploration partner in some properties located in Alaska (very close to Conoco Philips) in Niger and in the Philippines. Sure their main interest was Tindalo and Yakal but recent developments have put these projects on hold. But Tindalo was not the only prospect in the Philippine area. Many more areas (about 20 sites) and many have already proven that oil is there and are ready to develop. Two fields have also recovered oil: on page 30 of TGE presentation you will find that the drill site A and B have 19M barrels recovered. So in these areas (SC14 to SC54) the question is not if oil is there but how much can be recovered. Platform is in place so let’s go and see. We also have to keep in perspective that most oil wells will generate some % of water and the cost to eliminate those sub-products are taking into account in regard of profitability of the well. Will it goes back into production? I do not know but there is surely some oil out there as proven by recuperation of oil. They are still making arrangements for selling the remaining 75,000 barrels. Yes water was the main problem but that does not mean that they cannot fix that if the problem was mechanical. The well has not disappeared: it has been placed on hold and equipment decommissioned to avoid unnecessary operating costs. But the actual plan is to move toward the 1X1 location (most probably in Q4 2011) then Lawaan than Yakal. The reason beind zX1 is that the platform is already there and ready.

The very interesting other sector is Alaska where all costs associated with development are refunded by government as a 45% refundable credit. So the net cost to develop in Alaska is 0 over the course of about a little more than a year. There are some major exploration sites already producing lot of Oil. As a matter of fact Alaska has a 1,2B barrel of proven reserves and Conoco Philips has produced 252 MB in 2009. (From Conoco presentation). So there is huge quantity of oil out there and the quantity of projects is increasing in that region at a really fast pace. So even if TVI was to supply some money out there, they would be getting a tax refund. So you cannot lose money there.

Then there is Niger: if there is oil, great if not well too bad. (Remember that all cost associated with Niger have already been spent. So it is a freebee...) But if they were to find oil as expected by all models I am pretty confident that China will be more than happy to finance or even buy back the value of this partnership. They already have 80% of the property and if China went there they are definitely very confident that oil can be extracted in great quantity. Sure Niger is Niger. It is an unstable area of the world and my expectations for this part of the world are null. All investment that was to be made there was made so no more $ if no findings but anything found out there would be a good surprise and a great return on the investment. Imagine the real value of this one if oil was to flow: it could pay the total cost of acquiring TGE.

To me the real value is in the Philippines and Niger and Alaska could be easily sold after real value is known. By hitting oil it could change the real net value of TVI and by not hitting anything, the asset value would still be there. When you look at the different maps of these areas, I would be very surprise not to have some good amount of oil flow.

They also made some changes in the agreement to reflect problems encountered at Tindalo and recent drop in TGE share price. The modification from 0,67 to 0,458 share of TVI means a huge difference in share dilution (32% less) if deal completes but assets value (except Philippines) do remains the same. TVI will be acquiring some very good assets for a fraction of the cost.



So let’s do some maths here:

Actual TVI assets are worth                 28M$ net               45M$ gross

Actual TGE assets are worth                28M$ net               34M$ gross ***

TGE/TVI Exploration corp                   56M$ net               79M$ gross

*** These are book value of properties. Actual TGE value is much higher and in the range of about 70M$

Actual shares outstanding TGE

Bef dec 23rd float of TGE                   122M

Shares issued to TVI/LIM                    42M

Convertible note to TVI                        26M

Options/warrants                                    0

(They will be eliminated as they are under threshold of 0,08)



Actual shares outstanding

Bef dec 23rd float of TVI              488M

Lim Warrants exercised                   72M

Other options                                  41M (only about 24M are exercisable)

Warrants                                           8M (all LIM warrants have been exercised)

Actual TVI net value per share           0.045

(Actual value per share does not take into account participation in TGE or actual property value. Actual number could be a lot higher but would also reflect in the final calculation)

Conclusion of the deal (book value)              56M

Total shares float                                        665M shares outstanding

(122M TGE outstanding * .458 shares each TGE + actual TVI shares: 609M fully diluted)

Total value of NEW TVI (book value)          56M$

Net Value per share                                 0,084

Conclusion of the deal (real value)                 92M$

Total share float                                          665M

Net value per share of new TVI (real value) 0.138


(As a side note to be explored: Could the 34M$ in TGE accumulated losses be transferred and used by the new TVI? Good question. If that was to be the case, it would mean that total cost for the transaction would be 0 (or close to). That is question for an accountant and I do not want to take that amount into consideration.)

So it is easy to see the real value of the deal. To be a total waste for TVI will need ALL TGE assets to be written off to 0. That scenario even if possible is more definitely not probable.

This shows that TVI would be after the conclusion of the merger a company that shares actually trade under real value without even taking into account the earnings results. That is another great disconnect.

All together these are the reasons why TVI is again my top pick for aggressive growth in 2011.

All numbers expressed here are opinions unless otherwise indicated (expect for Balabag where numbers are proven resources based upon 43-101 and share number) and future results may vary a lot based upon commodity price, mineral findings, exchange rates or political changes.

Naturally please do your own diligences review of the facts and never invest more than you can afford to lose on any stocks. You should also consult your financial planner to see if investing in stocks fits your profile.


Dont forget my friends at

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/