The Play of The Day Bernanke Speach

No matter which company you own, want to own or sell, this morning speach will have a ripple effect on the stock market.

Looking at actual futures there is no way we will not feel the consequences of the speach and what it could reveal.

Also important that dollar index is showing a declining US dollar toward Canadian $ by almost half a cent and this is large by all means.

No matter what happen at it's 10am speach, you will be able to monitor in direct the impact of it by looking at actual Dow and S&P charts. Minutes by minutes the impact of whatever he will say will be reflected in terms of gains or losses on those indexs.

But what really matter is the kind of moves we will be able to do during this day and if a little bit of luck is added to the speach, well it will be fantastic for the usual stocks that i follow as they are more often highly volatile.

Whoever has some powder on the side ready to invest will have a great day if the fingers are as fast as Lucky Luke was shooting.

So my list of suspects for today is:

BZH  (Another nice run and ready to get back to 3,37)    

HOV (Huge run this year and ready to shoot higher or get hammered if bad news on the horizon)

RSH (Whatever good news customers can get to spend more (or less) will affect RSH highly) 

FBP( getting back on track to achieve the lowest side of my trading range)

Have a fantastic trading day and a nice long week-end

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day: RSH RAD FBP HOV BZH

Today i am simply watching for buying signs on the above stocks at these entry point:

RHS            2,45

RAD            1,21

FBP             3,65

HOV            2,64

BZH             2,89

Any move under these prices will signal me to accumulate some more.¸But be careful as Bernanke speech could change the game completely.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

Investor trust

In the past when you were interested in buying some company stocks you had to call your broker (the one you trusted the most) and have your order goes through him over the phone.

Now, retail investors are facing many many more challenges.

We are actually getting access at the speed of light to news that are happening almost in real time. We are faced with high speed transaction and many sites where you can get information or dis-information.

So how can a retail investor trust the market?

The market by itself has not changed a lot: the companies that are making the most profit OR the one that can generate that profit will be rewarded with an increase in share price and the one lagging behind will get hammered. And with the internet or social media ones, profit is no longer a requirement during the first years but users is the new norm.

Nothing has changed. Well, almost nothing BUT

Rapidly growing is a bunch of individual currently named the pumpers and the bashers.

Those 2 categories are using bull board and social media to either destroy (or try to) a company and sending its shares to very low price or the opposite by trying to give attributes to a company that does not deserve it and propping the share value to some high levels.

I have even seen co-ordinates attack on companies with only 1 goal in mind: either profit by ‘dumping’ stock or profit by buying cheaply price stocks.

You can also get emails stating black on white which companies they will target and very often these are penny or sub pennies stocks.

The problem is that in both case the retail investor does get penalized and ripped of it's own money by either selling at a panic price or buying at an inflated price.

To complicate the problem, sometimes these people are associated with a broker or work in group to profit from those bad trades: by sending share prices very low, they can buy in at these levels and make a nice profit on the way back up OR by inflating prices, they can sell (dump) their shares at the high level and let the retail investor suffer the loss when share price goes back down.

There is multiple organisations that supervise or control such conduct and they are keeping their eyes open with their mandate to investigate any complaint they receive.

There is still some hope for the retail investor and it is called: due diligence.

ANYBODY that want to buy shares of ANY company MUST do some research by himself to confirm the value in the company he wants to acquire. DO NOT LISTEN to anybody giving you advices to buy or either sell. Buying AND selling is a personal decision and by relying on those individual to commit some of your money in a company recommended by them is almost suicidal.

Those bull boards are for entertainment only and can give you hints on how the company is performing. Many posters on those bull boards will have valid arguments as to why they think the company is performing or not BUT a lot of them will not.

These guys are easy to identify: no arguments either way. Only comments like 'This company will be a 5 bagger' or 'Game over for this company' and much much much ALWAYS without giving the reasons behind their advice.

Why would someone post on those bull boards (bashing or pumping) if they have no financial reasons to be there??? That does not make any sense.

They will try to tell you that they know the market; they want to save you money (or make sure you will make tons of money) and they all look like a scam.

Imagine that you would place an ad in the local newspaper stating’ How to make 1M$ by investing only in 1 company’ would you do that?

Would you sell your house on a so called friend that was telling you that the street where you bought your the house will be valued at 0 without any further explanation?

So why would you listen to those without arguments?

And what do you do if they are arguing about things and always finding the negative side of any good news or the best side of any bad news?

RESEARCH ON YOUR OWN.

Don’t try to be an expert on all companies you will be investing into but at least, go into reliable data sources, do some reading and when comfortable with it, hit the buy or sell button.

NOW: if you ever encounter what looks like a group of individual working together to bash or pump a stock and if you feel something is going on: FILE A COMPLAINT to the appropriate organization. Don’t accept these games and report them.

There are many scams over the internet and some of these posting groups can be linked to that.

Over the years, I have reported many of them and will do it again when I think it is needed.

Do not let those groups waste your time and your money. Investing in the stock market is STILL by far the best way to get some reasonable return on your money BUT you have to be careful. A lot more than before.

 

The Play of the Day TO:CHR.B (Chorus Aviation)

In the airline industry, sometime small is beautiful...

Chorus aviation (operating under Jazz) and affiliated with Air Canada is a small but very profitable regional airliner.

This is an undervalued company with a PE of only 5 and when you compare to others in the same industry, it could 'fly' a lot higher.

An when you include a 15 cents dividend (16% annually) it become an easy one to pick...

It has had a good run recently and a small pull back is possible. Originally i was trading it between 2,80$ and 3,30$ but the recents quarter results have made me change the range in which i will be trading it.

I will be in under 3,50$ and out over 3,80 for a close to 9% profit on each trade and at the same time capturing some time a very juicy dividend.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2
.
 

The Play of the Day QTM (Quantum Corp)

Cloud services and safe backup is the coming reality. Anybody that is trying to do backup on other secure media has faced the same problem: how do i get it back when needed? Do you do your backups on dvd's and are limited to a 4,7G storage?

Ever had a computer crash where you very important data had to be recovered?

If so, you know that it is absolutely a today's necessity to have a protected copy 'somewhere' that you can access rapidly.

This is what Quantum is offering and with their new technology, at a very low cost affordable to anybody.

Yes their shares have been hammered and they have trended lower for a good period of time but i suspect that with this new product, it is time for a trend reversal with an expected price target of 1,99$ before year end.

So i will start accumulating at this level slowly and gradually hoping for some dips along the road.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day RSH (Radio Shack)

Radio Shack has been in a very narrow trading range recently and the question is:

How bad can it goes???

It would be very difficult to understand that a company like that would have another very bad quarter after the last 2. That would mean that management is unable to fix the problem and return to the good old times profitability speaking.

The whole sector has been in a very difficult position for the last 12 months but we have to remember that this is a pure US play (including some stores in Puerto Rico) and their problems is to fix the competition problem.

Margins are lower, cell phones profitability is gone so they are left competing against all other electronic retailers including internet based discount sellers.

Radio Shack has established themselve as being the 'convenience store' in electronics and customer service was their best card toward the other players. Have they lost it?

I do not believe so and i also think that they have in their share price a good pourcentage removed due to investors being excessively nervous about retail in general.

When you look at some fundamentals their share price to book value is simply incredibly low: 0,35. This means that actual book value is about 7,60$ and that expectations from the market is another 50% cut in their overall value. I don't buy that.

We should also remember that at this price Radio Shack could be a target for a take over.

So at this level, i am in and will add to my existing position. My expected target price before year-end is 6$.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of The Day HOV (Hovnanian Entreprises)

As i have already mentionned this week the construction sector is one of the most interesting sector for a mid term investment and this is really a great time to buy on the dip.

HOV was one of the worst hammered stock since 3 years and many were under the impression that this company would not be able to survive the US crisis.

HOV is a new position to me and i will get in this morning if it dips a bit as i would prefer the 2,50$ range to get in (i detest paying too much for any given stock...)

For those who would like to buy many construction companies but lacking a bit of funds, i would suggest ITB the Dow Jones Construction sector ETF and again i would wait a bit this morning to let the market stabilize as i think we could have a lower open.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day: Construction section !

Well, with results this morning from Toll Brothers, it would be very difficult not to look at the construction sector where many players could generate a lot of profit especially for the long stock market players.

TOL (Toll Brothers results were impressive to say the least and that trend should easily reflect on the others:

BZH   (Beazer Homes)

KBH (Kb Homes)

HOV (Hovnanian)

With results like this TOL has now started a trend for the next couple of weeks and ALL of the sector companies will benefit.

If you go with TOL i would wait a bit this morning as there could be some profit taking and shares could dip from the pre-opening price.

But if you are long, it is the right time to open a small position and one of my preferred one is BZH as it has been the underdog for almost a year now and it has huge upside potential.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of The Day MPEL (Melcro Crown)

Saying that MPEL has been suffering recently would be an understatement...

From a high of 16$ to it's recent low of 9.37$ investors in this one have seen all the spectrum of emotions.

But the recent report showing potential increases of 7% and more from Macau revenues could change the share price direction rapidly. We should not forget also that MPEL is generating profit.

MPEL P/E is lower by far when compared to it's peer by a large margin and this gap should close very rapidly. (MPEL  15, LVS  25, WYN  20)

I will be in again at around 11,75-12.00$ and maybe wait a little bit for some pull back from the recent increase (profit taking for many) to add to my position.

If all data coming till the end of the year are as expected, i think we could see 16$ back again.

We must stay prudent here due to the European situation as if we were to get negative reports again it could affect MPEL (and all other casinos play in the Macau area) for some time.

This is why i would buy MPEL but slowly and gradually by profiting of any dips that could come across. Be careful about chasing the price. Better to make a small profit on a small number of shares than trying to buy on the way up and finally end up in the red.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of The Day UUU (Uranium One)

Vacations are now over.

UUU has been hammered lately as there is no way this stock whould be trading under 3$ based on fundamentals or value.

Incertainty in markets surely did not help but there was very low volume in the last 3 months until last week where it seem to have pick up  a lot.

This is a great stock for accumulation at this price toward an objective price of around 3,25$ before year end for another very nice profit.

As usual DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Always play with caution.

 Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day RAD (Rite Aid)

A drug store chain with over 4600 stores at that price? Why?

Well, simply stating it: no profitability and lower guidances.

Have they bottomed? I think yes even if last week they dip down to about 1,05 (i supect it could have been part of the trading glitch because volume was huge at the opening then stopped at about 10:00 (like many other one)

So they are in trouble and outlook is not that great but i still think it could raise to 1,25$ to 1,35$ in a rapid way when actual resistance goes away.

At actual level, i will open a small position and add on the the next dip with a exit target price between 1,25$ and 1,35$.

This is actually mostly a trade play and not an accumulation type of play. It may become but not yet. My position will be also a bit smaller than usual as i am still awaiting a good dip to buy in large qty. This week in the markets has been really good so i am expecting a bit of giving back...

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day (GPL) Great Panther Silver USA

How about a great play on silver???

If have chosen GPL instead of GPR (the canadian issuer) for a reason: usa/can exchange rate, as i expect the US dollar to be a bit stronger over the next couple of weeks and trading ''at par'' is another good profit opportunity here.

Let's get back to GPL. If you look at the chart it has been relatively stable over the last couple of weeks and i suspect it is ready to jump higher any day now.

Especially this morning where market seems to open lower, it could be a great entry point under 1,65$. There is no need to rush in as i think silver price will still continue to climb but at a slower speed and GPL is more an accumulation play than a trade play.

But in any ways with the financials coming soon it could also help a bit the stock climb further.

So when you combine with silver going higher, good financials (imo) and US showing strenght, this is a perfect combination for a nice profit.

As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

The Play of the Day: UUU.TO (Uranium One)

UUU is one of the largest uranium producer in the world and is now into oversold territory.

At 2,18$, i expect a major rebound within the next week or so. The 52 week low being at 1,85$ and major support at 2,10$ the possible downside is very low on this one.

They will be reporting results on august 14th and i think that it will be good. Not great results but better than last year with an increase in production.

Their production guidance have been re-affirmed in May and with many hundred of new reactors being at some phase of building, the demand will not go away for Uranium BUT the supply will diminished in the coming year. Many states will try to put their hands on Uranium and will have prices settle well over 60$ in the near term (it trades actually around 49,50$). This will increase sharply the gross profit of the actual producers and even if news guys come on the block, the time needed to build infrastructure will not be a factor to lower price.

So at actual level, i am in and will continue to add on dips.


As usual (and more actually) DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with extreme caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2