Welcome back volatility

Stocks down, gold up and oil down....What a cocktail

And it's not over yet. I expect wild swings for this week to end up with almost no changes anywhere.

There are so many rumors going on at the same time that it is very hard to decode what is really going on but i still expect an agreement to freeze oil output and this will send some stability to the market.

But as long as this will be going on, will be hard to make up my mind on this week direction if any.

What to expect for this week

This week will be a good week for oil as the expected freeze in output from all major parties is now a lot more close to reality than before and there are even talks about the fact that if IRAN does not rally the group they will go ahead anyways.

Also interesting is the number of US rigs that have been shut down reducing another 200k to 600k barrels per day this year and this should contribute to another good week. I would not be surprise to see oil hovering around 35$ before this week end.

As for gold, it goes with stocks and US dollar value. With the actual economic situation in the US the dollar will continue to be strong and gold will continue to slide a bit toward the 1135 to 1150$.

Stocks should continue to do good this week for investors but volatility is still in the air.

Air Canada is now undervalued

I have started accumulating today AC.TO as i think it is way too oversold. I cannot imagine it will stay at this level simply because the board has decided not to give monthly results anymore.

Sure it has frustrated investors BUT that does not change the company value.

The last time it was at this level was in november of 2013 and did that company changed for the best in 2 years and 3 months.

It has now surpassed its own profit expectation and are on track to generated a lot more this year.

At this level i consider it is a bargain and will continue to accumulate tomorrow if price continues to drop.

My expectation is well above 9$ in the next 2 months. Pretty agressive you may think but look at the charts.

Have fun for the last trading day of the week tomorrow.

Time to get aboard AC.TO

I think that based upon early trading pattern, it is time to start accumulating AC.TO shares.

The comments made yesterday by the CEO did push Air Canada shares to this morning lows (around 7$) but nonetheless the value of Air Canada has nothing to do with the comments.

I still think that AC.TO is oversold and a move toward 8$ to 9$ is going to happen really soon.

Have fun

Oil gaining again

With the recent up moves for oil, the next level to watch for is the 40$.

This level will create a lot of resistance due to profit taking and world oil demand.

I do not see major road blocks to achieve that level but again nobody has ever been in trouble to cash in a profit.

My next sector still under watch is construction and my next stock is AC.TO as this one could be an easy gainer!

Have fun

Air Canada What's wrong ?

Profit numbers and then the stock plunge like hell with a whopping -12.03 on high volume.

What the hell is going on?

If you listen to the conference call there was one thing that was said that did not pleased investors: the end of monthly reporting and the comment that ''We do not run our company for short term investors....''

Could that be the only problem ?

I would guess so and tomorrow will be interesting based upon mid day volume.

I am expecting AC.TO to rebound aa lot from this 7.39 level back to 9$ in a day or two.

So if you have some liquidity and not afraid of volatility, this could be the moment we were awaiting for.

Have fun

Iran agree on oil freeze

So again i was correct on my call and Canadian oil companies did reacted the way i expected.

Is it time to cash in ?

If you don't believe that oil production freeze will stay, then taking some profit could be a good call but i personally think that even if it will be very volatile for the next coming days, i would wait just a day or two before making any exit of those Canadian companies like SU.TO as SU.TO for example could easily reach the 36$ plateau without that much trouble.

On the other hand, nobody has ever been in trouble by taking profit.

Have fun

Deal on oil freeze or cut coming?

Today was a bit of a surprising day as oil price did not went into the direction expected.

It would seem that Iran does not want to freeze or cut production under pre sanctions production and refuse to talk until that level is reached.

I don't believe that for 1 cent. I do think there are talks behind close doors between major oil producers and Iran to grant Iran some advantages should they decide to go with its neighbours.

There is simply no way Saudi Arabia (and many other) will let their country goes bankrupt and continue to cut their annual budget because of oil price or should i say over production.

That is the main reason i do not short this market as it is actually in a phase where even a slight cut would send oil price sky rocket in a blink of an eye. Remember Friday......12% one day on a rumor. Imagine a real cut from all parties....oil would climb back to 38-40$

The rest of the week will be interesting to say the least and i will keep my ears to the ground in case of any rumble.....

Have fun

Asian markets are sending gold down down down

Gold is down 45$ at 1194$ from Asian markets

Will that continue during the night of will gold recoup some of its losses?

I think gold will retest some lows as stocks will be on the rise this week.

So be careful before opening new position on gold companies.

So what's in store for Feb 16th 2016

I think this one is an easy one.....

Gold down
Oil up
Stocks up

I will watch carefully the home sector in the US as it seems that even if selling season for homes is starting now, the overall inventory is down.

If that is to be the case, that sector will be interesting and i will start accumulating.

Especially KBH ,a bit of BZH and HOV

These should have a good momentum is market stays as it is: many buyers bit not that many sellers at this time.

Have fun

Last trading day of the week

I am expecting an interesting session today before a 3 days week end (us and Canadian markets are closed on Monday).

With all the rumors going on actually in the oil sector i would not want to be short comes Monday morning as the potential gain to short this sector is now less interesting than the potential of gain on the buy side.

Gold will most probably end the week on a down note and it is too early to get back in because if oil was to rebound massively on Monday due to a production cut deal, gold would suffer dramatically and could erase most of the gains in 2016. So be careful here.

On the stock sides, at this time we have to factor in the unknown: interest rate hike, negative interest, inflation, oil companies going belly up etc etc etc. So this is too much to think about and i am not convinced we have touched the bottom for this sector.

There are 2 companies that i like a lot for gains in medium terms and they are AC.TO and CHR.B. TO.

2 great aviations companies almost ready to get picked up.......I will start buying back CHR.TO whenever it touches a bit under 5$ and AC.TO at about 7$. Both are offering a great return medium term and CHR.TO is even offering a nice dividend.

Enjoy your long week-end and watch for rapid alerts on tweeter @investman2

 

ALERT SU.TO

Today at 6.21pm something strange did happen on Suncor.

Normally after hour trading is quiet and low BUT SUNCOR is now trading at 1.78$ OVER closing price at 22.90$ (on NYSE )

Is this caused by the persistent rumor to the fact that OPEC have almost conclude an agreement to cut the oil output or only coincidence as other companies did not move?

In any case it will be very interesting to watch out very closely for news tomorrow about Suncor OR about oil deal with OPEC.

Don't forget also that markets are closed in Canada and in the USA on Monday so expect a very very very interesting sessions tomorrow and no doubts the shorts will try to cover their backs.

Have fun.

Bottom in oil and top in gold

It did happen this morning.

On a short term basis, i would now say that oil has bottomed at 26.50$ and gold has peaked at 1240$

That being said it does not mean that volatility is out but we had capitulation at the opening with volume simply incredible on gold and oil.

This week-end could bring in interesting news that will either keep volatility high and even short squeeze some in the oil sector.

Simply imagine this scenario: Yellen meeting today could indicate no more interest rate hike this year bringing some stability on stocks and sending sell signal to gold.

Now simply imagine that the talks looks like in the direction of reducing interest they just raised recently and BANG there you are with gold going down like crazy to value of 3 or 4 weeks ago and would likely help oil stabilizes around 30$.

Put that into Canadian oil producers perspective and there could be large profit looming on a very short term basis.

Let see now how the day goes!

I am out off gold for now

I just sold out my positions on gold in canadian gold companies and will keep an eye on oil especially SU.TO as i still think this morning was the day to profit the most from gold and being ready to increase position in the oil sector.

As expected there is a rumor to the effect that major producers could put a freeze on production and would this way reduce the oil pile up without cutting production.

If that was to be true, it would be a great step in the right direction.

As for Suncor (SU.TO)we shall not forget that this is a totally different companie after they acquired Canadian Oil Sands participation to almost 85%.

Any small increase in oil price will be reflected into Suncor profit.

Watch carefully and have fun!

Watch out for capitulation day

Here we are.

Today could really well be capitulation day and beware of that trap.

This is most probably not the day to get in gold as it is the day to profit cashing on it.

Watch for volume on oil as it could also be the day to get in from gold profits.

Not the time to panic but right day to be excited.

Have fun.

SU.TO short interest

Very interesting to note that short interest on SU.TO has now surpassed 13M shares on January 29th.

What is also interesting is to note the trading that has taken place since then.

It is absolutely incredible to see huge blocks of 200k, 400k and 500k shares moving rapidly at the bid and often at 1 or 2 pennies under the last price.

That looks to me a lot like machine programmed selling and short selling.

That being the case, i would expect the total short interest as of today to be over 15.5M shares (a record for the last 12 months ) and a double from last year.

That being said, look carefully for volume over 6M shares on a uptrend as it could signifies a short covering or even better a short squeeze.

Remember that a short squeeze is the effect of excessive buyers and not enough supply. That could also come from a margin call.

If i was a trader, i am not sure i would stay short when the benefit from these levels are far less than any positive news on the oil side.

I would not be surprised to see very high volume from tomorrow midday to end of session Friday.

We never know what a week end could bring.

Have fun

What to expect tomorrow February 11th 2016?????

For the rest of the week, trading will be highly interesting especially for stock.

I expect stocks to rebound on Thursday and shorts will cover on Friday especially in the oil sector.

Gold will zigzag but should remains mostly down.

Here is why.

In the oil sector, OPEC countries are not at this time interested to cut oil supply to avoid Iran and USA to profit from the upward price movement HOWEVER come countries will easily figure out that they cannot any longer pump oil at a loss on every barrel and will start acting accordingly.

I would not be surprised to see numerous rumors to start in the effect of a 5% output drop and that being the case, shorters will be more interested to cover their butts and avoiding getting squeezed on a Monday morning trying to cope with a 5 to 10% increase on oil barrel meaning a 15 to 20% increase on oil producing companies.

I may be simply dreaming in here but Monday will come fast enough.....

Have fun trading

wow. Gold call was right on

In regard of YRI.TO and G.TO i think the call was right on.

I would wait a bit tomorrow to see if a new entry point is created but it is a bit pricy over 3$.

For the oil sector, traders got a lot of fun today with large volume orders as they probably expect oil to touch 25$.

I do not believe that this will happen tomorrow.

US numbers will most probably show a increase in US oil reserve and if by any luck oil was to go around 25$, well, (no punt intended) that could be a great signal to get in and start getting out a bit over 30$ before the week end.

Have fun

Entry point in gold

I mentioned the fact last week that it was time to get some profit off the table and great if you did even if gold took another good leg up today.

I expect stock to  get back on gains as of tomorrow and gold should retreat creating another good entry point.

Just be cautious as we never know the kind of move stocks can do like the -400 today ending down 177 less than half of early losses.

Be careful as we are on high volatility here.

Value of Canadian Gold companies

Stock value has risen a lot since the past 10 days especially for G.TO and YRI.TO

Now it's time to take profit off the table and wait for retracement as i think gold will retest its low before going back on a up leg.

For YRI.TO expect around 2.60 to 2.70 range and for G.TO expect a range between 16.25 and 17.00$ retracement.

Enjoy your week end

Have we found the bottom in oil?

Well not yet and we need to test the recent lows in a v shape recovery then we could say we bottomed out.

Oil is a different beast. With all the supply right now, we could easily drop to a near 25$ BUT i do not think some OPEC members will let that go and we could be experimenting now kind of retreat from the shorters who are trying to cover their butts before something like that happen.

Pay close attention to the volume as it will be the key indicator of a covering!

Another great day for G.TO and YRI.TO

If you were invested recently in those companies your return has been close to stellar with a 50% return  (almost) from January 18th

I did took some off the table today as i think it is now ahead of itself and a small retrace could happen tomorrow in early trading.

But with all that instability out there, no doubt gold will continue to rise.

So who's next?

We will have a clearer view tomorrow morning.

Very interesting spike for gold

Are you invested in gold companies (G.TO   YRI.TO   KGC.TO  etc) ?

If so, the last couple of days have been good for you. It is not a surprise as normally gold is considered a parking lot for your money when stock market is highly volatile and going in all directions.

Like today where somewhat great numbers came out from ADP payroll number and stocks took another dive.

This is by far the most interesting period for gold especially because of where it stands.

If you did invested in gold and you have a great return % why not take some off the table. There should be great opportunities coming soon on a long term view.

On my radar screen actually are the following: DAN (nyse)  AC.TO   KBH (nyse) to only name a few.

Stay tuned!