Coming week should not be viewed as a source of great surprises but TVI news release on tuesday or wednesday will be watched a lot. DO NOT EXPECT a lot more than the 50,000 gold ounces as it was a defining drill program because everybody knows the gold is there. Now with that in hand, next steps will detail a lot more what is to come. Remember that they will start a small bootstrap mining that will be increased by itself based upon profit generated. With gold price standing as it is now and cost most probably under 400$ to produce, it does mean over 800$ per ounce of gold as possible profit. PURE extra.
PXLW has taken a beating recently but interestingly many insiders bough more shares. Does that mean they know something we do not know or do they want us to believe something is coming? With the size of this corporation and the style of their products, i think something is coming. Sales based upon their new technology could be higher than tought. Also keep in mind they were profitable only once in 2004. So imagine what a profit could do to their shares.
YRCW: hummm this one is a pure speculative play but it is worthy. No they are not yet out of the woods and they still have a lot to prove before returning to their real value. As it stands now their value is at about 0,70 to 0,90 with a full value around 1,70$ Q3 should bring in more clues as to where they are going and if their forecast is to be achieved it could well run over the 0,60 rapidly. I do expect an update on the business sometimes in the next 2weeks. Their forecast is EBITDA over Q2 and that would be great. Do not forget to take some profits over 0,45
LVS is still on the run (have you taken some profit recently?) and should be trying again gettin gover some resistance at 31$. Anybody rememebr when i first talked about them early spring last year (at about 3$).
It has been a great runner and the best is yet to come. Still expect this one to close over 40$ this year. MPEL will follow also the same trend and maybe in a greater gain %.
How about american banks? BPOP, WFC and many other are still facing great challenge and it is still the time to accumulate.
DAN: this baby is ready to explode at their first positive quarter (earning wyse). Now see Q3 and Q4 in great shape and expect DAN to gain another 50% before release of Q4 2010.
OCNF is still getting hammered by the lack of economy luster and the fact that ships are rented in advance. But this will stay like it is now. Another great one to accumulate.
Talking about buying on dips: CMFO is antoher very good example. They are in the right direction and this could be easily a 300% stock within a year. I do expect great results form them as they have a great market to expand : China...
For the other one ETFC, GW etc, nothing too exciting at this time in my crystal ball (...) but still good investment overall.
Happy trading all
dimanche 29 août 2010
vendredi 27 août 2010
ALERT TVI
We are getting close to the Balabag release and it could be very interesting. I do not expect TVI to announce more than what they were originally to confirm (50,000 ounces) as this drilling was to define where to drill.
On the other hand market does not seem to estimate too much from that NR. Very surprising because this gold could expand mine life by some years.
So maybe the surprise will come from the market not from TVI.
I think we should get this NR before mid week. My guess would be wednesday.
Will see.
Happy trading
On the other hand market does not seem to estimate too much from that NR. Very surprising because this gold could expand mine life by some years.
So maybe the surprise will come from the market not from TVI.
I think we should get this NR before mid week. My guess would be wednesday.
Will see.
Happy trading
ALERT YRCW
If YRCW can hold on over the 0,26 expect the next leg up to be up to 0,35 by friday next week.
Not sure if it will happen but they should give some updates on their business soon. It that happen and news are a bit over expectations (Q3 EBITDA being more than Q2) then next leg will stop over 0,41
Hae a great day
Not sure if it will happen but they should give some updates on their business soon. It that happen and news are a bit over expectations (Q3 EBITDA being more than Q2) then next leg will stop over 0,41
Hae a great day
dimanche 22 août 2010
TVI Pacific from Au to Zinc
The last quarter report did show again another very strong revenues stream and profitability when removing the 1 time event being the repayment of the ‘shark loan’ to be replace in part from a very low interest rate (compared to the previous one).
By analysing TVI we can easily see a very low cost copper producer that has a stream of revenues that will enable them to continue exploration and operation of new mine sites.
TVI still has 3 years of production in the bank (before low % cut off) and are generating enough cash on a quarterly basis to increase mine life significantly.
So what is going on and coming for the last 3 months of the year.
First, Balabag results should start the fun around the end of august (early September) and based upon comments from Mr. James (ceo) stating that they were very very pleased with the preliminary results. As a matter of fact they are still drilling on another vein and I think this could mean a good positive surprise. But remember that TVI never intend to start up themselves a 400,000 Au ounces mine project as it would be too costly and time is not on their side to accomplish that task. If they were to prove that kind of resources, that would be great for share value but would only be accomplish small steps at the time.
They are looking at a bootstrap mine site where cash generated will be reinvested to increase capacity over time. This being said it would still be a very profitable operation and would add up great mine life.
Do not forget also that there are many other opportunities lying in front of them like Tamarok area. I do not expect development right away but prospect out there are really interesting.
So why invest in TVI when shares are moving sideways?
Sure the money invested there could be in a small upward pattern at this time but when you look at the charts you can see that there is a battle between buyers and sellers. Nobody wants to sell at these levels and nobody wants to buy either. I mean nobody because of the number of transactions in any given day. It is very rare that you see a company with so many shares not being traded daily in the million shares range. It is as everything was frozen until something great happen. And, I still think it is coming. Yes there will be some lows and some getting discouraged but I think that the reward is by far greater than the risk. Maybe also Canadian buyers have already picked up their shares and they might find interesting to try grabbing more investors somewhere else in the world. Do not expect financial analyst to come on board at this time to help as the market cap and mine life is still a problem. But get ready if market cap was to be in the 100M$ and a 10-15 mine life remaining.
Look at the cash generated per share, then look at market cap versus real value. Look at the debt ratio, shareholder equity almost positive, a price to book ratio at only 2,62, a P/E ratio at 1,66 and you can easily see that something is wrong with this company share price BUT the value is there.
Many have mentioned confidence toward management: no. Not a good reason because in the market, numbers talk and TVI does have great results.
Some have mentioned mining in the Philippines: no again I do not agree. Nationalizing the mines is not in their interest. Their people are getting far more from private companies than what their government would ever give them if all non-Philippines corporation were to leave.
So where is the exact reason: in my opinion it is a question of company valuation: you have 3 years of mining left that will generate some good money and this is the factor on which it is evaluated. How much money would you invest in a company that has a net projected revenue of about 60M$ over a span of 3 years? Would you invest 45M$ and have a return of 10% per year? Well it would make sense from that point of view and actually I think this is where the market value TVI: a 45M$ corporation that will give a return of 10% per year.
The expectation of getting more copper (and expanding mine life at the same time) and expectations about Balabag are pure expectations where nothing has been confirmed as of today explaining why the premium is almost 0 at this time but when Balabag results do get out in a couple of weeks that will change the scenario.
Your investment calculation will be based upon the same 60M$ over 3 years + any net earnings expected from Balabag. Then from that number do the maths and you will get a fair market evaluation. Anything over proven resources would be the speculator premium over share value.
So for the rest of the year let say we remove zinc from our estimations and keep 2 good copper shipments per quarter. TVI will end up close to 75M$to 80M$ directly in line with original plans from TVI so meaning that they will have again delivered as they planned.
But what will happen next is interesting as Balabag will not get into production mode until probably Q3-Q4 2011 and even at the time they will need some commissioning move real production to Q1 2012. At that time, they will be left with 1 year and 4 months of copper production at the actual Canatuan mine.
So here is what I suspect for the coming 6-12 months
1) They will find the right way to extract zinc from copper if there is a way to do that properly. May not be before year end but remember that this VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphite deposit) is not easy. You have to apply the perfect recipe not to lose copper but only remove infamous zinc. But by doing so you win on the 2 sides of the story: you get $ for the zinc and you increase your copper % (and at the price copper now standing it does make a great difference). But each time to try it out you have to stop and start the actual circuit. (explaining why 6 weeks shipments and not 4 as in the past)
2) They will still ship every 6 weeks and at actual copper price their revenues will be as expected
3) Balabag will confirm a minimum of 50,000 ounces and other steps needed to start mining and gold producing will follow. I think the total process and mine production could happen within a year.
4) Other Canatuan prospection will continue and some interesting sites will be announced as there are no reasons why the actual Canatuan could be the only site where copper exist in % enough to be profitable.
5) EBITDA will continue to improve
6) Interest expenses will drop dramatically due to repayment of the loan
7) No more charges related to debt repayment
8) Other join venture will be explored with major partners
Now let see some ratios and numbers compared to last year
6 months ending June 30th 010
2010 2009 Diff
1) Revenues 42,4M$ 18,2M$ 133%
2) Exploration cost 2,4M$ 0,2M$ 1200%
3) Net income 7,2M$ (1,3M$)
4) Total Liabilities 17,5M$ 34,7$M$ (50%)
4A) Long term debt 2,7M$ 19,5M$ (80%)
5) Due to related Parties 0,1M$ 1,2M$ (90%)
6) Accumulated deficit 6,5M$ 32,4M$ (75%)
7) Net income per share 0,013 (0,003)
8) Cash on hand 6,1M$ 5,1M$ 20%
9) Administrative cost 3,8M$ 3,8M$
10) EBITDA 21,7M$ 4,7M$ 400%
11) EBITDA as % of revenues 51 % 24% 110%
1) Revenues are on the rise when compared against last year. Naturally shipments did not begin in January as it did in 2010. But even by adding 3 shipments for Jan, Feb and March 2009, the first 6 months of 2010 are well over mostly due to copper prices rising.
2) This number just proves that TVI is not sitting on their cash and are advancing at a fast pace to increase overall mine life.
3) This number speaks by itself. What a difference 1 year can make.
4) Overall liabilities does include short and long term debts even accounts payable considered as current and very short term
4A) the long term debt has been eliminated totally. The 2,7M$ comes only from pension fund and asset retirement. The last one is at 2M$ and is eliminated as an amortization expense and not cash related. As for the bank loan it is repaid every time a shipment is received and another loan is made after with only the take-off agreement.
5) Very interesting to note also that all related parties transactions have been reimburse except for the current portion that I think is payable on a quarterly basis and must be accrued in the financial statements. Remark also that shares issued to reimburse loans made by company officer were issued as they had no other choices. From the shark loan agreement I would assume that they were banned to make any kind of cash payment.
6) Look at this one. WOW they have made a tremendous effort to maximise net earnings (it is the only way to be on the positive sign). Also please note that a new ratio will be in place whenever they become deficit free. It is called shareholder equity! This is a great ratio for establishing a share price.
7) Very very good for a development mining company that generate their own needed cash flow to expand. Normally used as a great ration to establish share price. In mining it is normally between 12 and 20.
8) The cash on hand is extremely high. Remember that they repay completely the shark loan and replace with bank margins at very low interest rate. There is somebody there that knows their maths…
9) Administration costs have been reduced a bit showing a good control over management expenses and salaries. If somebody was to become greedy for salary, stock compensation, trips etc. It would have shown right there.
10) EBITDA is a non GAAP measure but used my mostly all corporations around the world as it gives a good picture of gross profit and not final results that very often include amortization and depreciation that does not involves cash. Although it is not a perfect ratio it is consider a great indicator about business health and when used quarter over quarter does reflects the real growth of the company.
11) This is how I view business: do they make profit and are they better than they were. Do cost growth faster than revenues? Does administration becomes sharks and think about them first? As you can see, this business is totally exploding on the positive side.
When you look at all these figures it is easy to understand why TVI is still one of my favourite picks. Will it takes 3 months, 6months or a year? This I do not know. But based upon their past results and their actual performance, they will definitely increase mine life to a greater extend and this within the next 12 months.
My final thoughts about share price.
Tvi is totally disconnected form their real value. It is very rare that you will find a company valued at about their yearly cash generation AND ½ of their annual gross earnings as their market caps.
Only based upon their gross earning they should be trading NOW at about 0,16 (which is TWICE than there actual value) then add the cash value 0,01 means that it is almost incredible to be able to buy TVI under 0,17.
Sure the remaining mine life is killing them at this moment and this is great for investors because unless they face 0 gold discovery in Balabag, 0 Canatuan extension this company share value and share price will be multiplied by 10-20 within 24 months. What is also so great is the ratio risk reward: risk is 0,08 per share and reward is 0,80-1,60$ So whenever you see a company that is profitable and this ratio is 10-20 times the possible loss GO. It’s a buy
Have a great week
By analysing TVI we can easily see a very low cost copper producer that has a stream of revenues that will enable them to continue exploration and operation of new mine sites.
TVI still has 3 years of production in the bank (before low % cut off) and are generating enough cash on a quarterly basis to increase mine life significantly.
So what is going on and coming for the last 3 months of the year.
First, Balabag results should start the fun around the end of august (early September) and based upon comments from Mr. James (ceo) stating that they were very very pleased with the preliminary results. As a matter of fact they are still drilling on another vein and I think this could mean a good positive surprise. But remember that TVI never intend to start up themselves a 400,000 Au ounces mine project as it would be too costly and time is not on their side to accomplish that task. If they were to prove that kind of resources, that would be great for share value but would only be accomplish small steps at the time.
They are looking at a bootstrap mine site where cash generated will be reinvested to increase capacity over time. This being said it would still be a very profitable operation and would add up great mine life.
Do not forget also that there are many other opportunities lying in front of them like Tamarok area. I do not expect development right away but prospect out there are really interesting.
So why invest in TVI when shares are moving sideways?
Sure the money invested there could be in a small upward pattern at this time but when you look at the charts you can see that there is a battle between buyers and sellers. Nobody wants to sell at these levels and nobody wants to buy either. I mean nobody because of the number of transactions in any given day. It is very rare that you see a company with so many shares not being traded daily in the million shares range. It is as everything was frozen until something great happen. And, I still think it is coming. Yes there will be some lows and some getting discouraged but I think that the reward is by far greater than the risk. Maybe also Canadian buyers have already picked up their shares and they might find interesting to try grabbing more investors somewhere else in the world. Do not expect financial analyst to come on board at this time to help as the market cap and mine life is still a problem. But get ready if market cap was to be in the 100M$ and a 10-15 mine life remaining.
Look at the cash generated per share, then look at market cap versus real value. Look at the debt ratio, shareholder equity almost positive, a price to book ratio at only 2,62, a P/E ratio at 1,66 and you can easily see that something is wrong with this company share price BUT the value is there.
Many have mentioned confidence toward management: no. Not a good reason because in the market, numbers talk and TVI does have great results.
Some have mentioned mining in the Philippines: no again I do not agree. Nationalizing the mines is not in their interest. Their people are getting far more from private companies than what their government would ever give them if all non-Philippines corporation were to leave.
So where is the exact reason: in my opinion it is a question of company valuation: you have 3 years of mining left that will generate some good money and this is the factor on which it is evaluated. How much money would you invest in a company that has a net projected revenue of about 60M$ over a span of 3 years? Would you invest 45M$ and have a return of 10% per year? Well it would make sense from that point of view and actually I think this is where the market value TVI: a 45M$ corporation that will give a return of 10% per year.
The expectation of getting more copper (and expanding mine life at the same time) and expectations about Balabag are pure expectations where nothing has been confirmed as of today explaining why the premium is almost 0 at this time but when Balabag results do get out in a couple of weeks that will change the scenario.
Your investment calculation will be based upon the same 60M$ over 3 years + any net earnings expected from Balabag. Then from that number do the maths and you will get a fair market evaluation. Anything over proven resources would be the speculator premium over share value.
So for the rest of the year let say we remove zinc from our estimations and keep 2 good copper shipments per quarter. TVI will end up close to 75M$to 80M$ directly in line with original plans from TVI so meaning that they will have again delivered as they planned.
But what will happen next is interesting as Balabag will not get into production mode until probably Q3-Q4 2011 and even at the time they will need some commissioning move real production to Q1 2012. At that time, they will be left with 1 year and 4 months of copper production at the actual Canatuan mine.
So here is what I suspect for the coming 6-12 months
1) They will find the right way to extract zinc from copper if there is a way to do that properly. May not be before year end but remember that this VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphite deposit) is not easy. You have to apply the perfect recipe not to lose copper but only remove infamous zinc. But by doing so you win on the 2 sides of the story: you get $ for the zinc and you increase your copper % (and at the price copper now standing it does make a great difference). But each time to try it out you have to stop and start the actual circuit. (explaining why 6 weeks shipments and not 4 as in the past)
2) They will still ship every 6 weeks and at actual copper price their revenues will be as expected
3) Balabag will confirm a minimum of 50,000 ounces and other steps needed to start mining and gold producing will follow. I think the total process and mine production could happen within a year.
4) Other Canatuan prospection will continue and some interesting sites will be announced as there are no reasons why the actual Canatuan could be the only site where copper exist in % enough to be profitable.
5) EBITDA will continue to improve
6) Interest expenses will drop dramatically due to repayment of the loan
7) No more charges related to debt repayment
8) Other join venture will be explored with major partners
Now let see some ratios and numbers compared to last year
6 months ending June 30th 010
2010 2009 Diff
1) Revenues 42,4M$ 18,2M$ 133%
2) Exploration cost 2,4M$ 0,2M$ 1200%
3) Net income 7,2M$ (1,3M$)
4) Total Liabilities 17,5M$ 34,7$M$ (50%)
4A) Long term debt 2,7M$ 19,5M$ (80%)
5) Due to related Parties 0,1M$ 1,2M$ (90%)
6) Accumulated deficit 6,5M$ 32,4M$ (75%)
7) Net income per share 0,013 (0,003)
8) Cash on hand 6,1M$ 5,1M$ 20%
9) Administrative cost 3,8M$ 3,8M$
10) EBITDA 21,7M$ 4,7M$ 400%
11) EBITDA as % of revenues 51 % 24% 110%
1) Revenues are on the rise when compared against last year. Naturally shipments did not begin in January as it did in 2010. But even by adding 3 shipments for Jan, Feb and March 2009, the first 6 months of 2010 are well over mostly due to copper prices rising.
2) This number just proves that TVI is not sitting on their cash and are advancing at a fast pace to increase overall mine life.
3) This number speaks by itself. What a difference 1 year can make.
4) Overall liabilities does include short and long term debts even accounts payable considered as current and very short term
4A) the long term debt has been eliminated totally. The 2,7M$ comes only from pension fund and asset retirement. The last one is at 2M$ and is eliminated as an amortization expense and not cash related. As for the bank loan it is repaid every time a shipment is received and another loan is made after with only the take-off agreement.
5) Very interesting to note also that all related parties transactions have been reimburse except for the current portion that I think is payable on a quarterly basis and must be accrued in the financial statements. Remark also that shares issued to reimburse loans made by company officer were issued as they had no other choices. From the shark loan agreement I would assume that they were banned to make any kind of cash payment.
6) Look at this one. WOW they have made a tremendous effort to maximise net earnings (it is the only way to be on the positive sign). Also please note that a new ratio will be in place whenever they become deficit free. It is called shareholder equity! This is a great ratio for establishing a share price.
7) Very very good for a development mining company that generate their own needed cash flow to expand. Normally used as a great ration to establish share price. In mining it is normally between 12 and 20.
8) The cash on hand is extremely high. Remember that they repay completely the shark loan and replace with bank margins at very low interest rate. There is somebody there that knows their maths…
9) Administration costs have been reduced a bit showing a good control over management expenses and salaries. If somebody was to become greedy for salary, stock compensation, trips etc. It would have shown right there.
10) EBITDA is a non GAAP measure but used my mostly all corporations around the world as it gives a good picture of gross profit and not final results that very often include amortization and depreciation that does not involves cash. Although it is not a perfect ratio it is consider a great indicator about business health and when used quarter over quarter does reflects the real growth of the company.
11) This is how I view business: do they make profit and are they better than they were. Do cost growth faster than revenues? Does administration becomes sharks and think about them first? As you can see, this business is totally exploding on the positive side.
When you look at all these figures it is easy to understand why TVI is still one of my favourite picks. Will it takes 3 months, 6months or a year? This I do not know. But based upon their past results and their actual performance, they will definitely increase mine life to a greater extend and this within the next 12 months.
My final thoughts about share price.
Tvi is totally disconnected form their real value. It is very rare that you will find a company valued at about their yearly cash generation AND ½ of their annual gross earnings as their market caps.
Only based upon their gross earning they should be trading NOW at about 0,16 (which is TWICE than there actual value) then add the cash value 0,01 means that it is almost incredible to be able to buy TVI under 0,17.
Sure the remaining mine life is killing them at this moment and this is great for investors because unless they face 0 gold discovery in Balabag, 0 Canatuan extension this company share value and share price will be multiplied by 10-20 within 24 months. What is also so great is the ratio risk reward: risk is 0,08 per share and reward is 0,80-1,60$ So whenever you see a company that is profitable and this ratio is 10-20 times the possible loss GO. It’s a buy
Have a great week
mercredi 18 août 2010
UPDATE on my top picks
With all that has happened in the stock market for the past 3 months, it is time to review my positions about my top picks.
1) TVI is still one of my top picks for this year. They are totally undervalued as their share price is about 1,5 time their net income per share. For a mining company i would expect nothing under 14 as a good multiplier. So shares hould trade at about ,91.
2)PXLW as not been profitable except in 2004 but has been beaten again as they are in the tech sector. Use caution but expect a great Q3 as this is normally their best. If they miss, they will pay dearly. SO when ready take some profit. Usually enough to get your investment back and balance is on the house...
3) DAN What else can be said. Already a winner this year (being flat for the year to date is a winner...in the industrial sector) but Q3 and Q4 will make the difference. I expect 14$ end of dec. Again whenever possible take your profit. We never know who the next car recall will involve
4) LVS: WOW what a run this year. Dec 31st 2009 share price 14,94$. It is already a 2 bagger and year is not over. 1B$ being repaid and term extended on their loands + great increase in traffic in Macau. Take some profit but do not get caught in selling too fast.
5) ETFC will be a long term. The reverse split killed them (as everybody else doing a non necessary reverse split) but will be back on track.
6) OCNF Another stupid RS that destroy almost 40% of their value. But ships are still rented at a great % but be a little more patient as those ships are rent long time in advance for more than 1 month at the time (except for 2 ships being rented on a as needed basis)
7)BPOP If Paulson is buying 35 M shares, you could also buy some. At the actual price it is a bargain. Sure Puerto Rico is not an easy banking place but will get over their problems. This one will fly without warning.
8)MPEL This one will move behing LVS and use the Macau momentum to increase it's value.
9)AC.B Still not flying as high as expected but since march it is flat and ready to go higher.
10) GW Still flat since introduced on may 25th but great future
11) CMFO Do you belive in chineese market? This one is probably my best pick for 2011. As of now i would expect it to increase by 50% before year end.
PLAY OF THE YEAR = YRCW if you like adrenaline this one is for you. Risk reward of 10 to 1. No reason (unless they totally fail) not to reach back the 1,60$ this year. Also take your profit everytime there is an opportunity.
Have a great night
1) TVI is still one of my top picks for this year. They are totally undervalued as their share price is about 1,5 time their net income per share. For a mining company i would expect nothing under 14 as a good multiplier. So shares hould trade at about ,91.
2)PXLW as not been profitable except in 2004 but has been beaten again as they are in the tech sector. Use caution but expect a great Q3 as this is normally their best. If they miss, they will pay dearly. SO when ready take some profit. Usually enough to get your investment back and balance is on the house...
3) DAN What else can be said. Already a winner this year (being flat for the year to date is a winner...in the industrial sector) but Q3 and Q4 will make the difference. I expect 14$ end of dec. Again whenever possible take your profit. We never know who the next car recall will involve
4) LVS: WOW what a run this year. Dec 31st 2009 share price 14,94$. It is already a 2 bagger and year is not over. 1B$ being repaid and term extended on their loands + great increase in traffic in Macau. Take some profit but do not get caught in selling too fast.
5) ETFC will be a long term. The reverse split killed them (as everybody else doing a non necessary reverse split) but will be back on track.
6) OCNF Another stupid RS that destroy almost 40% of their value. But ships are still rented at a great % but be a little more patient as those ships are rent long time in advance for more than 1 month at the time (except for 2 ships being rented on a as needed basis)
7)BPOP If Paulson is buying 35 M shares, you could also buy some. At the actual price it is a bargain. Sure Puerto Rico is not an easy banking place but will get over their problems. This one will fly without warning.
8)MPEL This one will move behing LVS and use the Macau momentum to increase it's value.
9)AC.B Still not flying as high as expected but since march it is flat and ready to go higher.
10) GW Still flat since introduced on may 25th but great future
11) CMFO Do you belive in chineese market? This one is probably my best pick for 2011. As of now i would expect it to increase by 50% before year end.
PLAY OF THE YEAR = YRCW if you like adrenaline this one is for you. Risk reward of 10 to 1. No reason (unless they totally fail) not to reach back the 1,60$ this year. Also take your profit everytime there is an opportunity.
Have a great night
mardi 17 août 2010
TVI update
Market did not react properly to TVI last press release as many used the fact that zinc was not produced at rate and % expected. So they dumped their shares. Oh by the way 2M shares where traded that day: meaning 0,5%. WOW. If this is a dumping where are the others... In the case of TVI a dumping would mean close to 40M shares. You want to talk about a dumping: YRCW went down to 0,10 with 230M shares traded in 1 day being 23% of the total shares outstanding. That is a dumping. But 2M shares: come on let's get serious. It was only some frustrated or unhappy (even day traders) who sold their shares.
Now who in the world would have imagine TVI to become a Zinc mine???
A zinc mine: are you crazy? why would they sacrifice copper % at over 3,25$ to get some coins for zinc at less than 1$ .
Zinc was supposed to add some $$$ to their bottom line and nothing is over. They simply do not have the exact recipe to extract zinc properly without sacrificing copper.
Remove the one time event of repaying the debt and you are still left with close to 5M$ in profit for the quarter. mind you, it is a lot better than Q2 2009 if you remember.
This is another great buy opportunity and full report will be published this week after i have time to read between the lines and analyse completely Q2 and Management discussion. But just as an appetizer, total debts have come down from 34M $ at dec 2009 to less than 18M$. Isnt that close to 50% total debt reduction???
Do not expect me to jump the gun at them: TVI is doing what they said they would do, they produced whatever they say will be produced and as far as i know the only glitch is the zinc circuit not operating as they want.
Again DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN WHAT CAN LOOSE but TVI is a great opportunity with over 3 years mine life, balabag results coming (mind you they are still drilling out there...do you think they would be doing that if no gold had been found yet???)
Have some great trading
François
Now who in the world would have imagine TVI to become a Zinc mine???
A zinc mine: are you crazy? why would they sacrifice copper % at over 3,25$ to get some coins for zinc at less than 1$ .
Zinc was supposed to add some $$$ to their bottom line and nothing is over. They simply do not have the exact recipe to extract zinc properly without sacrificing copper.
Remove the one time event of repaying the debt and you are still left with close to 5M$ in profit for the quarter. mind you, it is a lot better than Q2 2009 if you remember.
This is another great buy opportunity and full report will be published this week after i have time to read between the lines and analyse completely Q2 and Management discussion. But just as an appetizer, total debts have come down from 34M $ at dec 2009 to less than 18M$. Isnt that close to 50% total debt reduction???
Do not expect me to jump the gun at them: TVI is doing what they said they would do, they produced whatever they say will be produced and as far as i know the only glitch is the zinc circuit not operating as they want.
Again DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN WHAT CAN LOOSE but TVI is a great opportunity with over 3 years mine life, balabag results coming (mind you they are still drilling out there...do you think they would be doing that if no gold had been found yet???)
Have some great trading
François
UPDATE on YRCW
Are you ready for a 500% return???
Well, if you have the nerves and some hundreds of dollars from other gains, this could very well be the play of the Q3 and Q4.
Their business is improving, there are still a lot of shorts to cover their positions and unless sky's fall, they will be able to beat expectations again in Q3 and Q4.
If they ever were to be positive in any of these 2 quarters, it will go over 1$ without a problem. Only shadow still looming out is a reverse split that would damage their sahre price for some months as actually a good chunk of profit is made thanks to day traders.
But overall, with 1 Billion shares if you want to have great fun watchingm this one's for you AS LONG AS YOU KEEP YOUR INVESTMENT MODEST into that stock. Remember it is purely speculative and could change direction very rapidly.
If you have some doubts think about MBHI that went from 0,20 to 1,35 in 3 days then guess what: they are closed...
Have some good trading
François
Well, if you have the nerves and some hundreds of dollars from other gains, this could very well be the play of the Q3 and Q4.
Their business is improving, there are still a lot of shorts to cover their positions and unless sky's fall, they will be able to beat expectations again in Q3 and Q4.
If they ever were to be positive in any of these 2 quarters, it will go over 1$ without a problem. Only shadow still looming out is a reverse split that would damage their sahre price for some months as actually a good chunk of profit is made thanks to day traders.
But overall, with 1 Billion shares if you want to have great fun watchingm this one's for you AS LONG AS YOU KEEP YOUR INVESTMENT MODEST into that stock. Remember it is purely speculative and could change direction very rapidly.
If you have some doubts think about MBHI that went from 0,20 to 1,35 in 3 days then guess what: they are closed...
Have some good trading
François
Market Update
Well, is this one for real or another no direction move???
With manufacturerès data and small housing increase (an increase is an increase) i wld not be surprise to see the market continue rallying this week and some profit taken by week-end.
But overall most of my to picks have continued their march toward great profit.
Get ready for a very great fall season. If estimates continues to get increases, well my top 10 picks for this year will be in line to return well above 300%.
Stay tune for an update by company end of this month.
With manufacturerès data and small housing increase (an increase is an increase) i wld not be surprise to see the market continue rallying this week and some profit taken by week-end.
But overall most of my to picks have continued their march toward great profit.
Get ready for a very great fall season. If estimates continues to get increases, well my top 10 picks for this year will be in line to return well above 300%.
Stay tune for an update by company end of this month.
dimanche 15 août 2010
UPDATE on TVI
Here is an important update that was posted on Facebook and i think it is crucial to be fully understand.
Last quarter tvi had a EBITDA of close to 5M$ and when the 1 time event repayment and depreciation of the loan expenses is taken into account it is only a 0,002 cent per share.
So this is another great quarter. They are still working on the zinc circuit as it is a very complex ore body that they have to work with. It has to be tested then circuit stopped to do the change than tested and so on until final recipe produce the results expected.
Also please note that % of copper goes along with that. If you cannot remove correctly the zinc from the ore, then you % of copper is less important.
So be sure to watch for complete review mid next week and expect the blog to get back to regular updates as summer is near the end and it's time to have fun again!
Here is the update from tvi facebook:
It is important for us to try our best to offer clear, easy to understand information on our business. In line with that practice, we would like to offer this update to our zinc circuit commissioning process.
When we changed the shipping schedule from every 4 weeks to around every 6 weeks it was because, in addition to possible concentrate shipping delays, we expected there would be interruptions in production while we commissioned the zinc circuit. Much like the copper circuit commissioning process, we expected the zinc circuit commissioning to take several months, perhaps longer. This is normal for all mines that commission circuits of any kind. Commissioning circuits for “complex” VMS ore – which is what we are dealing with at Canatuan, can take even longer, in some cases much longer. For reference, the copper circuit commissioning started in mid November of 2008 and wasn’t completed until May 2009 – six months. During the commissioning process there are plant starts and stops, and for varying periods the circuit is suspended while plant and process ‘tweaking’ is carried out. The objective is to continuously make changes until the largest volume of concentrate is produced with the highest grade and with the best metal recovery, taking into consideration a number of factors.
Long before we started the commissioning process on April 30, extensive metallurgical testing of the Canatuan ores was conducted by reputable third parties and a ‘recipe’ involving combinations of reagents and plant configurations for the process flow sheet was decided. It was this initial process flow sheet that was tested in the initial commissioning process. In the early stages of the zinc circuit commissioning in May, it was found that acceptable copper/zinc separation was not being achieved using the ‘recipe’ we had initially chosen. As a result, additional metallurgical testing has been carried out to determine a better ‘recipe’ for the process flow sheet. Based on the additional test results we have been continually making plant process flow sheet adjustments - which is part of the normal commissioning process, while at the same time continuing and optimizing daily copper concentrate production. This has involved plant starts and stops. We believe we are in the final stages of the testing and expect to implement a revised process flow sheet soon which we hope will be successful. Having said that, we fully expect that commissioning of this revised flow sheet will continue until we achieve the results we are looking for from both the copper and the zinc circuits in the plant.
So, commissioning is a process that takes time and involves testing a number of variables until acceptable, optimum results are achieved. We feel it would be unusual for us to report every step of the commissioning process along the way.
Because of the commissioning process (which involves as mentioned in the report, periodic interruptions with the mill) we could not resume shipping every 4 weeks. We expected (and continue to expect) that with successful separation of the zinc from the copper, the copper concentrate will have a higher grade.
Last quarter tvi had a EBITDA of close to 5M$ and when the 1 time event repayment and depreciation of the loan expenses is taken into account it is only a 0,002 cent per share.
So this is another great quarter. They are still working on the zinc circuit as it is a very complex ore body that they have to work with. It has to be tested then circuit stopped to do the change than tested and so on until final recipe produce the results expected.
Also please note that % of copper goes along with that. If you cannot remove correctly the zinc from the ore, then you % of copper is less important.
So be sure to watch for complete review mid next week and expect the blog to get back to regular updates as summer is near the end and it's time to have fun again!
Here is the update from tvi facebook:
It is important for us to try our best to offer clear, easy to understand information on our business. In line with that practice, we would like to offer this update to our zinc circuit commissioning process.
When we changed the shipping schedule from every 4 weeks to around every 6 weeks it was because, in addition to possible concentrate shipping delays, we expected there would be interruptions in production while we commissioned the zinc circuit. Much like the copper circuit commissioning process, we expected the zinc circuit commissioning to take several months, perhaps longer. This is normal for all mines that commission circuits of any kind. Commissioning circuits for “complex” VMS ore – which is what we are dealing with at Canatuan, can take even longer, in some cases much longer. For reference, the copper circuit commissioning started in mid November of 2008 and wasn’t completed until May 2009 – six months. During the commissioning process there are plant starts and stops, and for varying periods the circuit is suspended while plant and process ‘tweaking’ is carried out. The objective is to continuously make changes until the largest volume of concentrate is produced with the highest grade and with the best metal recovery, taking into consideration a number of factors.
Long before we started the commissioning process on April 30, extensive metallurgical testing of the Canatuan ores was conducted by reputable third parties and a ‘recipe’ involving combinations of reagents and plant configurations for the process flow sheet was decided. It was this initial process flow sheet that was tested in the initial commissioning process. In the early stages of the zinc circuit commissioning in May, it was found that acceptable copper/zinc separation was not being achieved using the ‘recipe’ we had initially chosen. As a result, additional metallurgical testing has been carried out to determine a better ‘recipe’ for the process flow sheet. Based on the additional test results we have been continually making plant process flow sheet adjustments - which is part of the normal commissioning process, while at the same time continuing and optimizing daily copper concentrate production. This has involved plant starts and stops. We believe we are in the final stages of the testing and expect to implement a revised process flow sheet soon which we hope will be successful. Having said that, we fully expect that commissioning of this revised flow sheet will continue until we achieve the results we are looking for from both the copper and the zinc circuits in the plant.
So, commissioning is a process that takes time and involves testing a number of variables until acceptable, optimum results are achieved. We feel it would be unusual for us to report every step of the commissioning process along the way.
Because of the commissioning process (which involves as mentioned in the report, periodic interruptions with the mill) we could not resume shipping every 4 weeks. We expected (and continue to expect) that with successful separation of the zinc from the copper, the copper concentrate will have a higher grade.
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