Happy Holidays

Happy Holidays to everyone.

Please be safe and enjoy this time of the year with your loved ones.

Read you back early January

AUY (yri.to)

Interestingly AUY is slowly moving upward a couple of cents here and there.

It could be a great investment for 2018 as it continues to cut on cost and expand revenues.

To keep in mind!

ALERT TRADER RAD

As expected RAD is experimenting a high level of resistance between 2$ and 2,05$

Unless a clear update happen, this could continue until January 3rd (results release)

What i am expecting for this release is the following:

1) 400 or more stores transferred so far
2) debt reduction in accordance with mentioned plan
3) sales flat or -2%
4) update on rumors (RAD will naturally decline to comment and this could be a good indicator during the results conference call

Anything above that could be the catalyst RAD needs to get a major positive upswing.

Clock is ticking: 12 days to count 

ALERT HOV

As mentioned, HOV is now a sell recommandation from analyst.

Stay away of it for now as recent upward move was a long trap.

Until it clears out the 'default' idea they it had, wait on the sideline.

Be very careful on this one

RAD resistance

Rad is in the middle of high resistance at 1,95$

If you think that this is not easy, wait until it touches 2$......

That will be high resistance and i expect it to last until January 3rd when numbers will be released.

Then , well nobody knows.

If numbers are encouraging, it could pop up rapidly as many will cover their butts and if numbers are not that good, there will be another round of shorts toward 1,65$

So be cautious and do not forget to remove some profit off the table (as many are doing right now based upon trading pattern)

Have fun

ALERT TRADER RAD

As expected rebound just happen.

Now, high resistance will be seen until 2,05$ then next step will be 2,195$

Have fun

ALERT RAD

Large profit taking this morning and some short covering.

Expect a rebound from here toward 1,95$

Have fun

What about Bitcoin ?

Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin

Very interesting trading opportunity and what's more important is that it is based upon nothing.

No internal value, nothing

It is only based  upon the fact that whoever buys it will sell it at an higher price.

This is not the normal trading and you could easily make a fortune or loose it all.

This is based only on trader moods so it should be regarded the same way as a future company with an idea but no money to realize it and no way of borrowing to get it done.

Briefly: a bitcoin is worth nothing.

Why is it so high? For many years it has been dreamed that one day an universal currency will emerge. Many think that Bitcoin is but as long as it is based on nothing, this is not the universal currency dreamed about.

You can be part of this fun game by risking some coins but seriously stay highly cautious as value swings are so high that it can make you sick simply by looking at value fluctuation.

So the choice is yours but as far as i am concern, i will look at it without my own money in it.

Maybe in 5 years i will regret it but i think there are a lot better ways to make so $$$ without all the involved risks.

Stay highly cautious

ALERT RAD

Nice activity this morning on RAD where the 1,85$ was tested a couple of time and it did resisted.

So what's next ?

Well above the 20 and 50 days moving average, will now try to close the gap with the 200 days but could be a lot harder until results are published early January.

Until then, it is trader paradise with some interesting swings daily.

Still use caution and get profit off table when possible.

Have fun

ALERT EPO

Surprisingly, tax loss selling season is not showing so far. I would have expected a lot more down  volume but it is not happening.

Canadians have until December 27th to profit from tax losses so it could not had started yet.

Be very careful unless you could digest another year of suffering.... 

ALERT TRADER RAD

Another tricky early trading in RAD.

After some large blocks were traded, it rebounded again showing nice resistance at floor level between 1,79 and 1,80$ and THIS is interesting.

I would bot be surprised to see some nice upward movement but again with trading being so tricky, t could be again traders having fun with it trying to get it down again.

Be cautious here but looks good now on the mid term at least until numbers are released on January 3rd.

ALERT GPL (GPR.TO)

Nice move yesterday ans great 10% profit in 24 hours.

Maybe time to get some off the table ready for the next swing.

Expect some retracement before getting back in (my opinion only)

Have fun

ALERT HOV

HOV will release its results on December 21st.

Until then, be extra careful as there is intention to get in default mode as HOV wants to renegotiate their debt.

If that is to be true, expect a massive exit sending the share price well below the actual level.

So at this time this is a hold (in my opinion)

Goldcorp a nice long term play

Have a look at G.TO (Goldcorp)

Directly linked to GOLD price and at 52 weeks low with great uptick potential.

A bit a the time but should be in any interesting portfolio (in my opinion)

Have fun

ALERT TRADER Laurentian Bank Canada (LB.TO)

Be careful on this Canadian bank as there is a potential 300M$ problem with mortgage.

Stay on the sideline until problem is resolved.

ALERT GPL

Based upon trading pattern and actual base that seem to form on GPL (GPR.TO) i have increased my position this morning.

This company operates without any long term debt and have a very small shares float and even if silver is trading at a very low level, % of shorts if very low.

Silver is also trading very close to its base so i think the risk is minimal.

Trade safely!

GPL GPR.TO Alert

Great Panther is a very interesting play at this time as it is bouncing on it's base (52 weeks low) and is now ready for a good rebound.

I expect 1,19 rapidly.

Have fun

ALERT RAD

Based upon actual trading, there is a large directional movement coming.

Could go either way but i would estimate that it is a leg up movement as shorts tries this morning did not went well and was easily contained at 1,85$

Be prudent.

ALERT RAD

Rad is showing some interesting signs of life since 2 days.

I will keep an eye on the 50 days moving average as it has to close above to maintain the push toward 2$.

I do expect some tentatives from the shorts to bing it back under at the moment it touches it.

Actually a 1,84$ with upward pressure and increasing.

Hummmmmm lets see how it closes the week before jumping back in.

ALERT EPO

Be careful on this one as taxes loss selling season has begun.

I expect some selling pressure on this one.

Be careful

RAD again

Another very bad day for RAD.

Explanations: no guidance and no updates except for the closing of about 100 stores with WBA.

Remember last week that with a single news it went up very rapidly.

And now, without anything else, it is going down since the last week great gains.

What will it takes to get it out of the short power?

NEWS......Great news.

I can only now imagine what will happen if numbers were to be a lot less interesting than anticipated........TIMBER !

So be extra careful here not to lose it all on one trade.

RAD should be a lot higher, that i agree, but until shorts find another one to have fun with it, it will need a major push.

But could it be that someone is trying to get as much shares as possible and stay under the radar ?

As long as anybody owns less than 50M shares, it does not have to disclose the position.

Time will tell but as of now, i think it is over for this year and unless something very special happens, i will be also looking at other plays.

Have fun!

Is RAD ready to move up?

It is interesting to look at recent trading activities for RAD.

It is acting as if walls were created the moment where poor RAD is trying to take off.

How to explain that is easy: the spread.

For somebody shorting a company, it is important to have a good spread between intraday high's and low's.

So far RAD has been very generous on this criteria but it seems that the spread value is getting smaller and smaller every day with a couple exceptions in the last 2 weeks.

Reason behind that is the fact that we are getting closer to quarter data release (around December 22th) and that any good news would sent RAD on a sky's the limit range that it could create a short squeeze (where too many shorts are trying to cover themselve that shares climb in an unorganized fashion very rapidly.

Are we there yet......no but it could come in the following days.

Expect kind of rally before RAD releases their results and thereafter it will be more than interesting to see where it will stop. (either ways)

ALERT RAD

Trading so far this morning is controlled by shorts and computer automatic sell orders

Simply put: shorts are in control so far and trading is so weird that it is really hard to predict this end of day.

If RAD can hold at this level it could push back toward 2$ otherwise, next floor is at about 1,85$

Be safe here

ALERT RAD

RAD just went in another large short sell BUT it seems to recover properly

Keep an eye and play it safe

As of now, if it hits 2,25$ then next stop is over 2,40$

ALERT TRADERS RAD

RAD has opened again in the green area BUT expect a lot of resistance at this level. TO confirm that the bull run is to continue it has to get over 2,25$ then it should fly toward 2,40 then 2,80$

Resistance will be really high as old shorts do not want to let it go based upon the increase of yesterday in total stock shorted.

Stay tuned

ALERT RAD

What a great week for RAD and i would admit that i called it properly Tuesday at 12:05.....

now, here is the real interesting point.

IF and i mean IF RAD was to open over current closing level (2,16$) that would mean that the next stop is 2,34$ and  again if RAD goes over, next stop will be 2,80$.

Here is the real treat......

Shorts have increased (yes it did) during the last 2 days great run up) and if for any reason it was to go 10% over today, expect a short squeeze propelling the price over 2,80$ at which level we could expect a real high resistance.

We will know in a little more than 12 hours, but based upon trading today and the try to get it down near end of day increasingly tells me that we could be in for a HUGE rally before end of this week and without any significant news.

Volume today was insane and the last time it happen (during a 2 days run) sent the price over 4$

If you thought that today was great, tomorrow could even be  a lot more interesting.

Stay tune as i will be monitoring this one VERY CLOSELY tomorrow so expect a lot of post about RAD.

My take for December

Will we get a Santas rally this year?

Well i think we will.

Numbers are great......Trump new fiscal plan seems to be on it's way....oil will get a boost from an extension for the producing cuts and much more

1) Oil will try to break the 60$ limit (WTI) simply because Russia will agree to extend the cuts over March 2018. They are not stupid and they know the higher the better. So, this should be a plus for the oil sector. Remember that on the radar list there is NEG.TO and CHK on nyse. They are highly volatile but could generate the biggest gains.

2) GOLD: It will not be replaced by bitcoins at this time. Expect higher volatility as North Korea continues to be stupid enough to strike new missile launches even if most of the world agrees that it is not acceptable. So gold will goes higher

3) FANG stock will continues to be highly volatile BUT Amazon will lead the pack. I expect Amazon to make some more announcements before year end on some more markets it is not touching yet. They are actually the biggest disturber for retail companies and will continue this way for some time.

4) Potash stock will continue to trade sideline as there is not much new demand and still too much offer (or at least potential offers). EPO.TO will continue to trade sidelined for some time but i still expect this one to gain a lot in 2018.

5) RAD: Poor RAD had enough of troubles in 2017. I still believe that RAD is by far undervalued and way too much oversold. RAD should already be trading in the 3-4$ range but it may takes some time. If results near Christmas time are good, expect a fantastic 2018 beginning.

What else to say, market is not overheating at this time and there is still room for growth. So, 2018 could bring in many more new records as economy stays as it is: in great shape.

Have fun and safe trading

ALERT RAD

Based upon trading since 12:05, volume, number of buys compare to sell orders, this is almost confirmed that we have begun the expected bull run.

If no surprises comes in, expect to get toward 2$ very rapidly and lot of resistance at that level where news shorts will try to lower price but this time without success. If this happen, the next leg up will be rapid as shorts will cover their orders very very rapidly.

Stay tined

ALERT RAD TRADING

Long trap pattern removed from the equation and today seems to mark the beginning of a nice bull run and here is why.

1) Buying most active platform are the same used to short the most (PSE, EDGZ and BATS platform)

2) Rite Aid has indicated that they have started the transfer of stores to WBA

3) They have also indicated that they will use money received toward paying the debt

4) They have also indicated that the taxes burden will be like ly very low as they will use the carry forward losses to eliminate taxes

With that in mind, it is VERY dangerous to short RAD at this time.

ALERT RAD TRADERS

At about 12:05 today, something has happen on RAD trading where abnormal trading occurs and looking like some large shorter had started to cover.

Keep an eye not to fall under a long trap but if it touches 1,75$, it could the bull run many were expecting.

ALERT RAD

Interesting article about amazon should buy Rite Aid

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3313864-cowen-analyst-says-amazon-buy-rite-aid?app=1&uprof=82

ALERT TRADER RAD

Based upon past months trading pattern, we are either in a long trap and price will get back down within next couple of minutes OR we are in an cover mode (for shorts and margin calls) and RAD will shout up toward the 1,70$ rapidly.

We should know by end of day.

ALERT RAD

If rad was to close above 1,60$, it would have crossed the 15 days moving average. Next stop then would be 1,80$

But again be careful toward the long trap seen very often and expect a lot of resistance at 1,60$

Volatility is high

As of now, volatility is getting higher and most of the time it does indicates a change in direction.

Majors indexes are now ready for a correction BUT if results continues to be that strong, we could expect a small drop only to get a great leap higher.

Still, be extra careful on those used to trade rapidly for minor profit:

1) RAD is used actually by Professional traders to make profit both way buying and shorting. Most of the days, it has a 10 cents spread or about 5%. It is great if you buy and sell at the right time, but it could easily goes both ways at a rapid pace.

2) Oil is also moving side ways with a 5-6% spread. Be ready to make profit on this one to

3) Gold is going nowhere BUT that could change in a blink

So, on all trades the line is getting thiner so be extra careful

Is this the awaited correction ?

Keep an eye on the indexes as we are getting very close to the beginning of the so awaited correction.

Looks like most of the indexes are right on the tip and unless some great news (unexpected one) comes in, we should see the beginning of a correction early this week.

Depth and lenght will depend of the kind of news we get or the absence of them.

Most of great news have already been baked into the stock prices and i do not think we are heading into large changes. So, get some profit off the table and wait for it. Christmas rally could be very nice.

RAD The management shake up continues

Seems that Rite Aid is still alive and continues to make many more management changes.

During these times, stock continues to trade a bit higher then some more on the down side meaning a nice sideways trading......

Shorts have continued to grow and at this time unsure of what's ahead. Any more bad news could send to stock on a downward spiral (i mean another one.....)

On the other hand, any good news in regard of sales, profitability or anything very positive could create a short squeeze.

So this is a good opportunity but still be careful!

OIL Hummmmm

Did you noticed that Saudi Arabia and Iran relations are not that good those days????

If it was to get worst, expect more turbulence and higher oil price.

60$ for oil barrel is not that far before year end....

MEG and SUN could be potential great winners and the same for CHK.

EPO Nothing changes

Oh well, even with a 2M shares wall, it went down again to 3,5 cents today before closing unchanged at 4 cents.

We are entering into loss selling season as traders will capitulate on it and get a tax break for a loss.

Based upon trading and lack of news, i would tend to think it is over for this year.

Potash market is far from being strong and nothing indicates a change in the foreseable future. So maybe 2018 will bring kind of good news but until then........

RAD Amazon not seeing to get into pharma

It is interesting to note that Amazon has indicated that it does not intend to get into pharma (at least in 2 states where it bought licenses) even if there is NO confirmation from Amazon itself.

What we saw today was short covering at exactly 15% gain after shorting it.

If that trend was to continue, expect domino's effect toward 2,12$ where it all started.

But be extremely careful not to get into a long trap here.

Overall market condition

Based on actual trading on all major stock indexes, we are right now in the middle of something to happen.

Either positivism will continue and market will continue to add to the gains or it is now time for a correction.

I personally think, we are entering now a period of correction. Market is waiting for something and i cannot see the kind of positive needed to continue climbing higher.

I would be very healthy if market was to correct itself by 5 to 7% and i think this is where we are heading.

SO if you made great gains recently it could be a good idea to take some profit off the table and stay sideline until that correction happens.

Naturally only an opinion by the actual gains may not last for that long.

Be careful

RAD..... Is the worst over

I think it could be. There are so many shorts at this time that one day or another, they will have to cover.

Remember that it is always dangerous to short a stock at this value especially in the case of Rite Aid.

RAD is not expecting going bankrupt as they will have tons of money flowing in for the next 6 months and this should reduce their debt load a lot and toward a more manageable level.

Is this worth 6$ ? Not right now but once debt becomes under control yes.

So for the meantime, RAD could be a nice profit making stock if you play it right and under a short to mid term lenght.

Have fun but be careful with this one.

OIL watch carefully

With all that is happening right now in the Gulf, it creates incertainty and applies pressure on OIL price.

So this could be a nice opportunity to increase a position in MEG.TO and SUN.TO

These 2 are my favorite plays in Canadian oil fields and are much interesting and less volatile than CHK for this interesting oil market.

I expect some more turbulence in OIL world and it could mean great profitability.

As usual be cautious.

ALERT RAD

We could be in a recovery mode as i type.

RAD has been hammered so much and was so oversold ( i even suspect naked shorting of this one) that it means that it has to recover simply for the fact of covering shorter's butts.

That does not mean however that the shorting round is done BUT it could be a lot quieter for the coming weeks leading to sales results.

Be careful

HOV What does next earnings reserverse?

Based upon last couple of years, HOV will disclose its results on about December 8th and if results are not there, expect a return around 2$.

If HOV is unable to achieve profitability when everybody else are, that mays sounds very bad for that company.

They were unable so far to get a profit whatsoever and NOW is the time.

Until early December i expect kind of rally for this one but be careful as it could be a sell on the news stock.

RAD Is this one dead ?

What a descend to hell.......

This stock has been hammered almost everyday for the last month or so and now wondering when that will stop.

Unfortunately, nothing signals a change of direction and the only place to look now is down.

It has been greatly oversold and it seems that unless a major great new is throwned in, it may well even gets to 1,25

So be on the look out and it may well be good only for some trade in and out.

BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL

Encanto Potash What to expect

At this time of the year i would tend to imagine nothing else will ever happen this year.

Potash price is not what's needed to build a mine and financing is not available for projects of this size (over 2B$)

So, even if they have a signed agreement for supplying potash and even if they a financing up to 100M$ (diluting the company that much), timing is not the one needed.

So do not expect anything out of EPO for some very long time.

But at actual price, if you do have some dimes to spare on a very long shot, it may be interesting.

I would suspect share price to get into 3 cents or even a bit lower so don't invest the barn on this one.

ALERT TRADER RAD

Actual trading pattern and bid increase tend to indicate a reversal pattern with high resistance in the 1,80$ level.

If that level gets cleared, expect 1,89$ rapidly

WOW........

Returning from vacations and looking at some interesting points:

1) Rite Aid........What the hell happen.........looks like a short attack to me. Simply incredible to see that Corp trading at this level. Unless there is something that i am not aware it is actually well oversold and totally undervalued. Right quarterly numbers were very bad but i think management spent too much time on selling half the stores than managing the company to get back profit. That time has come: get the profit back in and put RAD back on the profitability radar.

2) Gold and silver: not much changes and still not many disruptors on the market at this time.

3) OIL: This is a very interesting one. The sector has been oversold for a long term and i think it is getting ready to explode.

4) Market in general seems to continue marching toward gains and gains and gains.

I would not be surprised by a small correction very soon so don
So major profits made? Get some profit off the table

Vacations

Please note that i am still on vacations and will be back on October 16th

This week in review

What a strange week it has been on almost all fronts.

1) RAD: Very surprising share price drop at first look but when you get into the details, it seems more like a untrusted management to put back this corp on the right tracks. Investors do not believe that mgmt has what it needs to turn that ship around. I do believe that there is a bright future for RAD but management shake up must happen first. I do expect kind of a small rebound but we never know how traders will try to get the most out of it. I think RAD could test the 2$ mark again today or early next week unless something highly positive happen. As of now, it is a HOLD

2) Gold and silver were shaken a lot this week with the possibility of another interest hike this year in the USA and the US dollar gaining strenght. Could be a great opportunity to buy some in gold producing companies.

3) Construction is still doing fine but HOV is lagging. I expect a little turn around from now and HOW could go a bit over 2$ next week.

4) Amazon and Alphabet are still competing on which one will get over 1000$ and stays over there. I think it will be sideways trading for another week or two.

5) OIL: great week again for Canadian producers and expect more in the coming weeks untill OIL stabilizes at around 60$

Enjoy your week end 

EPO Value in the long term

EPO is on track to become THE potash mine in Canada and profitability is on the horizon but the hard question is : Who will benefit from it ?

Whoever has already invested in any business knows for sure that the one who brings the money is the one that owns the most, no matter who invested first. This is business 101 !

In the beginning some invested their hard earned money into a project that seemed full of promises and EPO was (is still) one of them.

The problem here is that many thought that by investing 1000$ they would end up with 100 times their investment and unfortunately, it does not work like that.

A mine the size of EPO needs billions of dollars to end up producing any goods and any first investors should have know that, no matter what, if they wanted to retain the same % of the final project, they would have to invest more and more along the way. That is the way businesses work.

EPO trades on the venture stock exchange.......or maybe i should have called it more properly the 'risk capital' exchange. This is where you invest early and sell early to profit. If you stay in those stocks forever, you end up being a bag holder of some worthless stock (because of dilution) and that must be understood carefully before investing in ANY of those Canadian Venture stocks. That exchange is more adapted to traders than investors for that reason and this could also explain why the Canadian Venture is having so much problems in gaining real value traction.

So, with that in mind, if you want to retain your original % value of the company, you will have to invest along the way many many times, as capital will flow in, to allow the project gaining some life.

In case of EPO, we are lucky to see some light at the end of the tunnel. We could have seen our investment simply goes down the drain as it is with almost 90% of venture stock.

EPO was managed properly enough to have a long term deal signed, for all (and more), of its potash mining potential. By itself this means a great value.

Now, it's the time to get serious and find the right way to build the mine.

We are talking in billions of dollar and even if we would like to retain our actual % of the company, this is a dream unless one of us could shed the needed money. So expect 1 or 2 reverse split during the next 3-5 years or until the mine is build. I personally expect a reverse split to happen no later than early next year allowing EPO to draw the millions $ needed, and another one before getting the Billion dollars needed to construct that mine.

Remember also that EPO has a very complex owners share structure with many large investors involved. They will not let their capital evaporate.

So even if the trading company was to be successful, there is simply no way they could generate enough profit to pay for the mine by itself and EPO will need financing in an hostile environment and cash strap financing possibility.

Don't get me wrong, EPO is a fantastic project on the long term BUT investors will have to inject a lot more money to retain their company % and profit from it.

The only actual way of making money out of EPO AT THIS TIME, is to trade it up whenever possible, profit from the trade, wait for a dip than do it again. It will be a lot more profitable than investing in thinking this will be profitable on the long term without investing more.

Whenever we talk about business fundamentals, we have to remember that EPO actually is worth nothing if mine is not build EVEN with the signed agreement. We have to ask ourselves how much profit it could earn being a middle men in the potash industry. Yes there is some money to be made out of this trading corp but % would have to be very low.

The recent price movement (or absence of it) shows without doubt that: take off agreement and financing possibilities are not enough to justify any large value to EPO. The only thing that will allow a nice price increase is money and where it will come from. Until then..........it's a dream but if you are trading it properly, EPO could procure you very nice gains by buying the dip and selling higher until all financing is in place.

Best of luck to all EPO investor (and traders)

TGIF What to expect

It looks like this is going to be a really quiet Friday without too much action on the markets based on actual readings on the actual action on premarket.

Overall, i still thinks that RAD will make a comeback next week especially during results day (next Thursday). Results will be very bad (as usual) but we will get a better feel on how they will use the proceeds from the sale to WBA as they already received 325M$. Will be interesting to have a look of where that money went. Anything else than repaying some debt will be seen as ridiculous and shares will react accordingly.

GOLD and SILVER are in a slump right now because of the possible December US rate hike. It would continue to trade this way for some time.

OIL may have started a rally that will be light in the beginning but to intensify later in fall. I expect a 60$ price end of this year.

Retail sector continue to be in jeopardy : thanks to Amazon. But we should not forget the other great retailers of this world: Best Buy, Costco and WalMart. When you add these 4 together, well, not much left for the other on a long term view. Actual retail will have to adjust rapidly or disappear.

Talking about trouble, Toys R Us is one of the best example of retail store having not adjust to market demand for years. Stores are mostly as they were 20 years ago without much thinking in their design but most especially in their service offered to customers. Their online site is not performing and there are still no way to order and get it in store asap....look to where it drive them: Chapter 11.

Advice to other retailers: react NOW or get lost.

Amazon is in to stay and with their mind set on technology serving customers, they may have found the right recipe for the next 10 years (or until somebody gets a better way of doing it)

Alphabet continues to struggle with their share price. Yes they do have great products but these ideas have already been taken into account in the share price. Advertising revenues will continue to go down, and unless they find something totally new, it will continue to trade range bound.

Have you seen Air Canada (AC-TSX) recently ? WOW... i recommended buying that stock at 2,50ish and it is now well over 26$. NICE GAIN. Same for CHR-TSC (Chorus aviation). But be careful as they have shot well over their target range and could correct a lot. So great time to take some profit off the table.

Now, if i had to make a bet on a US bank, i would go for FBP (First bank of Puerto Rico).  I would wait a bit for correction to end at about 5,25$ and i expect over 7$ when all is set and repaired.

That is it for the Friday Edition, have fun

ALERT EPO

100M$ financing has been secured.

Will be highly dilutive at the beginning as they will issue shares at 90% of market value.

So if for example they withdraw toady 10M$, they would issue shares value at 4,5 cents meaning about 200M shares for that first draw only.

Hope shares will climb rapidly or expect a reverse split rapidly. 

ALERT RAD

Oufffffff

What a bad day for RAD that got approval for the sale of 1900 of their retail outlets.

Looks like shorters had a great party but it may not last that long.

RAD will receive over time 4.375 B$ for roughly half of their stores. If they do what they say they will, it means that the long term debt will also reduce by the same amount creating a lot more interesting business model with a lot more manageable long term debt.

Expectations are for a share price between 4$ and 5$ and today was the day where shorters took control of the nerves of actual shareholders.

If you look at real traded shares today, it is about 10% of total shares meaning that it has nothing to do with kind of panic selling.

Many entered the world of Rite Aid only to make a couple of bucks rapidly and did so by indicating stop loss orders that were totally wiped out during the day creating a domino's effect.

Now that the bad is done, is the worst over ? Not quiet sure but i do not expect anything of that magnitude for the coming days.

I expect a small recovery until the quarterly results are released on the 28th.

Since then it could well be kind of difficult to predict share price direction.

have fun

ALERT TRADER RAD

Based on actual trading pattern, (i could be totally wrong here) but it looks like RAD will rebound from the 2,43$ low.

Traders are increasing their bids right now and sellers are starting to smell some pressure.

We should see also some spike in volume.

NOT the right time to short anymore. Be very careful. 

ALERT TRADER RAD

WHERE IS THE VOLUME ???????

9M shares premarket and only 400K since opening (3 minutes) ???????

It looks like traders are waiting for the bottom at 2,54 to be installed properly before getting in

TRADER ALERT RAD

Deal signed sealed and delivered.

A smaller one with about 250 less stores but still a great deal.

More to come on details.

TRADER ALERT RAD

Expect good news today on Rite Aid deal.

Based upon reports from different sources with knowledge in the matter, FTC will approved the deal by today with what maybe some minor differences.

Now, with FRED this morning changing its shareholder protection chart, what could it means and what could be FRED implication ? They were supposed to get some in the original deal and MAYBE they will finally gets some chunks of Rite Aid.

Expect incredible volume today close to 100M shares traded.

ALERT RITE AID (RAD)

Still no official news form FTC and rumors are indicating the deal could modified again today to address FTC concerns.

If that was to be the case and another 30 days delay was announced, that would not be that good for RAD stock. Naturally a modified deal is still better than a deal getting reject.

Pre market activity seems positive on good volume.

So let see.

ALERT RAD

Based on older filings from Walgreen and if filing was made on time, the timer is now over and the deal will now gets approved.

Based upon trading today, it seems like many traders have already closed their short position.

Now, that does not mean deal is approved......it means nobody moved.

I would not be surprised that FTC does not have to give an answer if the end of the 30 days comes on a non working day meaning that Monday will be the day.

Stay calm and enjoy your week end.

ALERT RAD TRADER ACTION

At 10.55 one trader bought 400,000 at 2,56$

Somebody is definitely covering his butts

TRADER ALERT RAD (Rite Aid)

So far very erratic and non directional trading on RAD.

Low volume and this could be a last attempt from traders to cover them without success so far.

Large block were put on the ask and were eaten rapidly.

If theory is true, expect higher volume till the end of the day with marginal gains naturally if no news are release.

This is Friday !!!

Well, this week end could be more interesting that the week itself.......

Lots to keep in touch with: North Korea last stupid move.......they are really looking for trouble and i hope somebody will find a way to stop them NOW before it's too late.

So this will keep am upward pressure on GOLD and SILVER even if the US are still talking about another rate hike this year. Personally i think that at this time nothing justify another hike and this should not happen unless things changes dramatically.

RAD.......TIC TAC TIC TAC......last trading session before knowing if the deal gets approved or not. Expect some price swings for the stock and keep an eye on the directional movement. It could be fast and furious in any decision. Already over 125k traded so far in pre market.

Other than that, not much to expect either way based on actual pre market trading. Very very soft.

So enjoy your week end 

Expectations

Here are my expectations for trading until tomorrow EOD

OIL and SILVER: range bound trading so low profit to be made and low losses to be generated. HOLD

RAD: TIC TAC TIC TAC.....If documents were filed on time, it means that Septembre 18th is around the corner. The adage says that 'no news is good news' well in the case of RAD, remember that they decided to refiled 1 day prior prior to end date.....So we never know but in any case, i think that shorters will continue to cover themselve. So some good gains could be made as the acceleration of trading should be seen today and tomorrow unless bad news again pound RAD. If some gains are made, remember to get some off the table. You could make less profit but could avoid large losses in case deal was not to get approved.

HOV: expect range bound trading as it does not have a clear direction yet HOLD

AMZN: Breaking into the 1000$ again this morning and it is the resistance level. If it holds, get ready for 1050$.  BUY

Have fun!

Very interesting day

On one front OIL is making a come back and companies like MEG (tsx) and SUN will benefit from that. I expect some more until Friday.

Gold is getting a bit lower again today and the trend could continue for  a couple of days. Do not expect a come back until next week.

RAD: This is following the exact direction it should. TIC TAC TIC TAC, we are getting real close to the absence of decision from the FTC meaning a green light by default.

Shorts will have to cover themselve rapidly and the actual trend should continue until Friday unless bad news were to hit.

Have fun tomorrow

ALERT TRADER RAD

Was it a panic selling day about Rite Aid ?

NOT AT ALL......

Under 40M shares trading, it is even less than a normal day.

We are in a waiting mode as the click is ticking toward September 18th. No buyers (oh well some) on no real sellers.

This is trading games happening where traders try to influence investors trying to make them thinking they know something but at the end they know nothing.

Remember that one particular highly important fact about Corporations is that they have to let investor know IMMEDIATELY when something material happens. They cannot wait period.

They has been no new as of yet meaning nothing has changed.

Have fun

ALERT RAD

WOW....this does not look good for RAD this morning.

High volume and share price dropping usually does not fit well together for the investor.

I will keep an eye on it but as of now i would be extremely cautious.

Either somebody knows something or this is only trader games but in both cases, watch out

ALERT RAD Trader games

Very interesting games this morning on RAD. To me it looks like the last short and short covering day before the news.

Trading pattern indicates that trading is occurring within a 2% range up and down meaning short term shorting and covering rapidly. Will be interesting to see how much shorts still exist tomorrow but first impression telling me it would have diminished.

To be kept in sight

This will be an interesting Tuesday.....

Apple will announce its newest smartphone so keep an eye on the company shares. It could swing either ways especially in regard of the delivery dates. If the IPhone X was to be delayed and delivered in November, reaction could be one of disappointment.

Gold is due to rebound somewhat today as shares of Yamana Gold and Goldcorp (and most gold miners) have taken a beating yesterday. They were all smashed way too far and if you were in a position to buy some yesterday, it could be a nice trading opportunity on a short term basis.

RAD (Rite Aid) TIC TAC TIC TAC TIC TAC (September 18th is coming rapidly)is at resistance level. On good volume and getting over 2,58$ could mean a rapid rally toward 3$. Remember that 150M shares (approx.) are to be covered in case of great news and volume would spike rapidly if rumors were to be at the effect the deal has been approved. So keep an eye.

HOV is still battling to gain some traction but i think the worst is over. We shall see.

Still not move from North Korea........they will do something and i hope that they will not go too far.

So let's see what happen

This week looks quiet

At first this week seems to be the slowest of the month as no major news are expected.

Oil could face some upside when results 'will' show a draw into the US reserves so expect WTI to gain this week (will be impacting MEG and SUN).

All major sectors should be trading within range bound except maybe for GOLD and SILVER that did suffered last Thursday and Friday. I do not expect a rebound unless North Korea does not like the new sanctions tried to be imposed by the USA.

Will keep you informed on any interesting change in trading patterns especially on RAD as clock is still ticking.

TGIF......................What's up for this Friday

Last day of the week and it was a great one on many fronts and devastating for many people because of Irma and Harvey. Hope they will recover rapidly and that they will get the needed help.

Some time ago, i mentioned that the greatest disrupter in retail sector was Amazon (AMZN). Could it be behind all the problems seen at Toys R US recently ? Not sure about their way of doing business in the USA, but let me tell you that in Canada, they need some management changes and the way they deal with their employees. Retail success most of the time comes with employee's tenure. Not in Toys R Us case......Their business segment is getting eat by competitors and sadly they do not know what to do......Expect chapter 11 early next year right after Xmas season.

GOLD continues its march toward great gains. Anyone that have invested in YAMANA GOLD (YRI tsx or AUY) have made a killing this week from 3,70$ up to 3,85$ (before correcting itself a bit). OK 15 cents does not sounds a lot but it is 4% in 5 days...........Try to get that from your bank. Good luck!

And i think it is not over yet.....think about North Korea. Expect another missile launch before September 11 as a gift to the USA..........This one could be the last.

OIL movement has been very good this week and if you entered MEG (TSX) early Monday that would have been another great run as it went from 4,88$ up to 5,25$ before correcting itself. Another 7% gain.

SILVER especially Great Panther (GPR tsx or GPL) were it came from 1,33$ up to 1,46$ for a whopping 10%. Remember that Great Panther has no long term debt and is not fixing price until delivery. That means that everything shipped in the last 8 weeks that is starting to be received and will be paid in today's value. That should help the bottom line in a great way.

In regard of SILVER, there is an interesting trade that took place recently where somebody took a 1M$ dollar bet on silver going over 25$ before January 2019.

you can read it here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/the-surprising-rationale-behind-a-million-dollar-bet-on-silver.html

If that price was to be achieved, it would help companies like GPL's stock achieve a fantastic return and if somebody is putting a bet like that i would be tempted to invest a bit on a long term view (i know, i know, long term to me is about 3 months...........) just in case.

Now HOV: well this was not my best bet for the week as i did get back in between 1,79$ and 1,82$ but that dummy closed yesterday at 1.74$........uhhhh losing position -5%.

Lets see now  EPO (Encanto Potash on TSX venture).

This one is my speculative position (keep in mind that speculative means 100% losses (or you may lose it all)) being the same.......

They still have (they say they have) an offtake agreement for almost all of the potash they can produce and that the mine built would be worth 2B$ (yeap 2 billion dollars)

Only problem is: Where will the money needed to build it, would come from ?????? No sign here that they may even be advancing their project.

So this is speculative and, as often on Canadian Venture stock, it could be another flop. Time will tell but on the other hand, if some good news were to be released, this could be the best investment of the year.

Now RAD (Rite Aid)......TIC TAC  TIC TAC 10 days to go before the deal is approved or rejected and it is starting to be seen now in RAD trading pattern where shorts are getting lower and price going upward. It is not exactly what i am looking for (i mentioned that this was still a 6$ stock) but at least we can see that there is some buying pressure and this is very good for this little one. Any news about transaction getting the green light will have the stock skyrocket due to shorts covering their butts......When this happen don't be afraid to get most of them off the table as it could correct itself thereafter when future vision of RAD comes in play. So it is a great way to use enter future pricing sell orders.

Well that is it for this review of the week and as usual enjoy the week end my 30k readers. (now 31k)

(i will naturally let you know if anything interesting happen.....)

ALERT GOLD

WE are getting very close to the highest gold price since july 17th 2016 and then Agugust 2013

YES 2013

If an i mean IF gold goes over these marks, that would mean a lot for gold producing companies.

So keep an eye on that one.

Do not forget Silver that is also on fire.

GPL (GPR TSX) is on fire and climbing almost everyday even when profit taking is taken into consideration.

It is not too late to join the party..........

ALERT RAD The clock is ticking TIC TAC TIC TAC

What's happening with today's highest volume than the last many weeks. Actually it is the highest volume since August 1st.

So, what's going on??? Well the clock is ticking TIC TAC TIC TAC

On September 18th, if there are no objections from FTC, it means the deal is approved and will proceed as expected.

Now, is this a trader trap ? I do not believe so as trading pattern indicates bulls are in full control of this one.

Will be interesting to have a look at tomorrow short interest (i know official reports are on the 1st and the 15th) but there are ways to know on many trading platform the actual short interest if it is growing or if number is getting lower.

My expectation is that shorter's are getting covered at this time as there is no way to believe either RAD or WBA  would have entered that deal without checking it first with FTC.

I believe that that deal is signed and delivered.

Lets see what tomorrow brings in but i believe it is now 'enroute' toward 3$ mark before decision is made

OIL Report

with this week event, i expect a draw form US oil reserves and a rise in WTI oil price that would reflect on Sunco (SUN) and Meg Energy (MEG tsx)

ALERT TRADER HOV

Bids increasing tells me that finally results were into the stock price.

I am back in.

Expect resistance at 1,84$

ALERT TRADERS HOV

Again HOV did not delivered on results but so far reaction is mild as i think results were already baked into the stock price and looks more like an ok day.

Keep an eye on it as many time it did changed direction in the blink of an eye

What about tomorrow???

Keep an eye on HOV tomorrow morning as they will disclosed their last quarter results and hte following could happen:

1) They report as usual a small loss..........shares drop to about 1,60$

2) They report a great quarter and stock starts a recovery.

Whatever the report is, based upon last couple of quarters, the trend will take some time to gets in so if report is great get ready to buy some and otherwise stay on the side line.

Gold was today a victim of a great ride too fast and lots of profit taking did happen. Do not forget that one of the main reason gold will continue his upward movement is North Korea and honestly i do not expect a direction change. I would even think that the next ICBM test will be conduct this week end just in time for 9-11.

Stay tuned!

ALERT. RAD

Management changes.......hummmmm

Either deal is not going the way it should or finally management understood where the problem was.

Let see how market react.

ALERT TRADER HOV

Even if i am skeptical about real value of HOV the trading patterns seems to indicates that it is now trying to rebound.

Do not forget that quarterly results are schedule for Thursday before market open so it could be a great opportunity to buy now and sell on the news.

So i did bought some 2 minutes ago.

Yamana Gold is on fire!!!

A whopping 6% gain today and until the North Korea crisis stop, expect more gain to come.

As usual, it is always a great idea to take some profit off the table....after 6% is actually almost 3 years of interest at the bank........

Next stop for Yamana (expect high resistance) is the 4,10$ mark then shortly thereafter (if is gets over that mark) 4,57$

ALERT TRADER MEG (TSX)

MEG floor has been achieved for today. Expect rebound toward 5,28$ for a 2% gain

ALERT RAD

If last couple of weeks trading pattern stays, today's floor could have been reached (2,40$-2,41$) and that means we could expect a rebound toward 2,46$ meaning a possible rapid 2,5% return)

So far today

As expected, North Korea moves have rattled the stock market and at the same time, has made GOLD more interesting as a safe heaven.

This should continue for a while so the best way to work with that is to use stop orders in case of a sudden drop.

Oil (especially MEG on the tsx) is doing great again.

As for Yamana Gold and Meg they are  both at resistance level and ready to pup by another 5-10%

My little friend (RAD) Rite Aid continues its sideway trading and again no great volume so expect it to do same old again......gain a couple, lose a couple.
  

Encanto Potash ready to bounce back ?

Just bought some more EPO (on tsx-V) this morning.

I think it is really close to rebound from it's low toward 15 cents.

Only need 1 real good new.

This week is about to begin

Wondering where this week will lead ?????

Here are some trader ideas for the following sectors:

OIL: Expect a nice jump this week because of Harvey and the coming Irma. This will be very disruptive in nature and the winners will be the one that are not affected and especially in Canada. This should lead to a great price increase for Suncor and Meg Energy (SUN and MEG tsx Canada). These 2 companies are well positioned to gain from those major storms and especially MEG that has one of the lower cost per barrel.

GOLD:  Did i say North Korea ? Whatever the move they does this week it will definitely continue to rattle the world and let GOLD make some good gains. I like the Canadian companies like GoldCorp and Yamana gold. Yamana (YRI tsx or AUY) have the most to gain as they are the most volatile.

Amazon (AMZN) is still climbing toward its 1000$ mark. They are THE most retail disruptive company and acquisitions are not over. I expect something in the pharmacy business in the months to come. So i will stay away from retail stocks except Best Buy (BBY)

Construction sector is still looking for a direction and i expect HOV to go down again.

It is a wait and see week and naturally i will keep you informed.

ALERT TRADER GOLD

From Cnn.com

I know it is a long week end but i had to mention that GOLD seems to make a great upward movement most probably due to the latest move from North Korea.

Even if i still believe in take some off the table because off upward movement, this is a serious issue happening right now and combined with the fact that the FED may not rise interest again this year, GOLD could be seen moving upward of 1400$ very rapidly if patience is one of your principal quality.......

Same could be true for OIL as it could be disrupt if military options were to be exercised or prepared.

So get ready for a very very interesting week.

Long week end coming

Ahead of this very long week end there was lost of profit taking this morning as expected.

Until close of the day, volume should be light but expect some good rebound on gold and oil.

If gold stays over 1325$, this could signal a move up toward the 1350$ mark.

TRADER ALERT Encanto Potash (EPO)

Bids are abnormal today.

Interesting but be careful about a trader trap.

This company is now ready for a turn around.

Friday's update

Overall a great week on many fronts:

For the oil market, Harvey's disrupt totally the USA market and it is now starting to reflect on Canadian companies like Suncor and Meg Energy. Out of those 2, MEG is the one with the lowest cost per barrel so it is the one getting the larger impact. MEG (tsx) now sits at 5$ and would the Texas situation continue for a while, i expect MEG to reach above 6$ after hitting some resistance at the 5,10$ and 5,60$ mark. As usual, getting some profit off the table is always a great idea.

Gold is also starting to reflect the higher tension especially since North Korea fired a missile over Japan. This was a totally insane move and if North Korea was to launch toward Guam base, expect an incredible run for gold. This would reflect on all gold producing companies as this problem could become a longer term annoyance. I like Yamana Gold and Goldcorp as they were hit the worst recently and rebound in gold will profit them more.

Construction is also on the rise but i do not expect HOV to get all attention. I would prefer at this time KBH for their stability over the years.

The FANG stocks: Amazon will test again the 1000$ mark (within a couple of days) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will continue to churn around 950$.

Ford (F) has surprised me but i am still skeptical at this time.

Rite Aid (RAD) seems to have started its come back with nice gains this week and i expect the rally to continue next week.

Wishing a nice week end to all my 30k readers....

RAD Is the rally started ?

In the last couple of days (actually since Monday) shares of RAD came of the 2,26$ low to 2,38$ this morning (pre market).

It may not seem much but 12 cents gain on a 2,25$ stock is still a good 6% in a matter of days.

Now the funny part is the fact that shorts have increased during that time and it does indicate that even if 6% gain was recorded this week so far, many do not believe RAD is on it's way up.

Even the smallest bit of positive news could set RAD on fire creating at the same time kind of a short squeeze and could have this stock goes nut very rapidly as more than 150M shares are shorted and with actual day to day volume, that would be more than interesting to watch it goes up.

Now the negative side is that maybe the one who are shorting that stock are right and again the deal would be rejected plummeting RAD to 1,50$ range.

As usual, risk / reward must be high in the case of a trade deal and in regard of RAD the risk ration is definitely high as the reward could also be.

Time to balance decisions against risk but so far i would think what's coming is positive for one main reason: IF negative was in the cards, RAD and WBA would have the obligation to disclose it as it would be considered 'MATERIAL'.

I also think that we are a lot closer than we think toward getting that deal accepted, getting RAD a major debt paid off and welcoming the new Rite Aid company that would be a lot leaner and profitable.

If that deal was not to be closed, i would suggest a complete management change !!! 

ALERT TRADER RAD

Abnormal volume for RAD. Something is up. get ready

ALERT TRADER RAD

Interesting trading on RAD this morning as bids are impressive and getting higher.

Not sure at this time of the outcome but will keep an eye

ALERT TRADER AUY (YRI tsx)

Expect high resistance at 3$ for AUY. If it goes over 3,06$, then next stop is 3,43$

ALERT GOLD

To be watched carefully: ALL gold producing companies (Yamana, Goldcorp etc)

Recent events in North Korea suggest that this could last longer than originally thought.

Naturally do not forget to take some profit off the table but, this up trend could be here for some time until North Korea problem gets fixed once for all.

ALERT TRADER GOLD

With today's North Korea stupid move, expect some traction on the gold market tomorrow.

Already up in after hour trading I would not be surprised to see Yamana Gold (and others) climb early tomorrow morning.

So get ready for some large fluctuation.

If moves are that large do not forget to take some profit off the table as I do not think North Korea will play a role for that long.

TRADER ALERT YRI (AUY ) Yamana Gold

New board member for Yamana Gold. Shares are climbing rapidly. 4% gain and continuing

Robert Gallagher has worked in the mining industry for over 40 years. He spent 15 years with Placer Dome Inc., and from August 2000 to December 2007 was with Newmont Mining Corporation, most recently as Vice President, Operations, Asia Pacific. Before the June 2008 business combination of Peak Gold Ltd., Metallica Resources Inc. and New Gold, Mr. Gallagher was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Peak Gold Ltd. from February 2008. In addition, Mr. Gallagher presently serves on the boards of Dynasty Gold Corp. and Southern Arc Minerals. Mr. Gallagher holds a Bachelor of Applied Science, Mineral Engineering from the University of British Columbia. Mr. Gallagher's principal occupation is President and Chief Executive Officer of New Gold.

(from ''Find The Company'' internet site)

ALERT TRADER HOV

HOV has just touched 1,79$ and this could mean a great entry point (a bit shy of my prefer 1,75$)

If it stays at 1,80-183$, it maybe time to get back in.

ALL CONSTRUCTION sector is getting slammed today.

An interesting week is about to begin

This is another week that major disruptor could be kept in check.

North Korea has calmed down, so did Mr. Trump. This will help stabilize gold unless something happen but nothing to be affraid of this week.

About the oil market , Houston flooding will naturally disrupt the oil market a bit and the US could be forced to import some more than usual. Again, this may not be enough to move the WTI pricing needle too much.

The FED does not seems to be interested in rising rates that much this year so this will help GOLD and lower the US dollar.

The construction market will continue its correction and i expect HOV to slide a bit more getting close to a great entry point at about 1,75$

RAD should continue to trade sideways as it seems no one care to advise about the coming deal that was supposed to close end of august and that has been refiled again (i am sarcastically surprised !) and until then i don't expect anything else than little pops up or down. BUT this company has been shorted so much that if a positive new was to happen, shorters will get left with their pants down and a lot of $$$ would be needed to cover themselves. Expect chaos if that was to happen and prices to rise swiftly and rapidly.

FANG stocks should continue to move sideways but for 1 exception and it is Alphabet as they are getting close to announce their new Pixel 2 phone. I expect a 10-15$ pop.

On the Canadian side, be careful about Air Canada (AC) as it moved to high and too fast. It is getting ready to correct itself by a 5-10%. Same logic apply to Westjet (WJA)

Canadian banks are still some of the safest on the planet with a great dividend %. I don't expect any great moves either ways as Canadian markets are stable and this should continue for some time. One of the bank to check on is Laurentian Bank (LB). This is probably the bank with the worst service and the worst employee attitude but they are making a good turnaround in their profitability. I hate that bank on a service base but at this price this is a tempting trade occasion.

Great Panther (GPR or GPL in the US) continues to slowly climb. I do not expect any major move but it is poised to climb back toward the 2$ mark in Canada and 1,60$ in the US. Good mining company (small one) but no long term debt and profitable.

Potash is simply defying logic at this time so the same apply to Potash Canada (POT) and all the Canadian projects that are trying to see the light (as Encanto Potash  EPO). In the case of EPO it is simple: lots of talk but no action. It lead the share price spiral from 18 cents to 5 cents. Because there is a rule in Canada about financing where the share price cannot be under 5 cents to do a private placement (private financing by issuing additional shares) i expect a come back from this time and being on the Venture Market, prices are often manipulated right before financing is to be announced. This is a perfect example to buy low and sell high on the news.

So unless the world goes nut this week, it maybe more interesting to watch the paint dry than the performance of some stocks. Continue to watch my traders alert as we never know when the opportunity will knock on the door.

What about this friday ?

As mentioned earlier, this week  was only range bound trading without clear signal in either direction.

Still some interesting points:

1) OIL.....WTI is now 5$ behind BRENT......Hummmmmm will correct itself earlier next week and i presume WTI will go higher faster than BRENT

2) GOLD and SILVER are somewhat still range bound trapped. This was a week where not much happen and still many things lingering in the background. Will see next week

3) Rite Aid  (RAD).......not ready to give up on this one but it management surely know by now the best way to have their companies lose market value. They (Walgreen and Rite Aid) deserve an 'A' on that subject. I also think that shorts is now well above 250M shares based on actual readings. If good news were to come i know expect higher volume on that day most probably in the 200M shares traded.

4) Hovnanian (HOV) is getting back on its down slope as expected even if it had a dead cat bounce yesterday. Wait before getting in or if you can stomach the downside, you can start now only a bit a the time and get ready for some down swing again next week. If DOW correct itself by 3-4% expect HOV to go down by 15-20%. Remember that they have not been able to generate any profit this year in a year where number where really really good for the construction corps.

So about this week, i would say it was more interesting looking at the paint dry on a wall than the swings of the markets.

Another thing to remember: you will never make any money by buying stocks........you will make money by selling them at the right time.

Hope you all have fun this week my 30k readers.

TRADER ALERT RAD

Keep an eye on RAD today as volume et buying pressure seems to signal a change in direction.

Expect upward movement

TRADER ALERT SDRL

On august 21st i mentioned the fact that SDRL was a great trade for SHORTING the stock.

Well, in 3 days it has dropped like a rock and it now sits at 18 cents for a whopping 50% (well a bit more) in only 3 days. I think it is the right time to take the profit.

RUN OUT as fast as you can....

TRADER ALERT HOV (Hovnanian)

HOV has broken it 2$ support.

Expect downslide to continue.

Buying point at about 1,75$ to 1,80$

OIL reserves from API report

At about 4.30 PM API will release preliminary results in regard of US oil reserves.

They are expected to have dropped by 3,4M barrels and any results indicating more than 3,4MB would immediately have a great impact on oil price.

That being the case, expect a good rise in the shares of MEG (tsx) and SUN.

Both are undervalued at this time  because of oil price but i suspect a rebound in the coming weeks so it could be a good time to get some $$$ in.

ALERT RAD Cross trade

There are significant cross trades happening right now on Rite Aid (RAD)

More than 3M shares in the last 10 minutes always at 2,25$.

This has happen 4 times in the last 2 trading days.

Wondering who is behind those shares exchange.

TRADER ALERT ( RAD)

Very interesting trading pattern here (again)

Nids are building up in the 2,20$ to 2,23$ and asks are getting thinner indicating that IF filing was to occur toady, some could be facing kind of a short squeeze and buying pressure could lead the stock value above 2,40$ very rapidly.

Do not forget that a lot more than 115M shares (July 31st report) are now shorted and with actual volume it could mean up to 6 trading days for shorters to cover up if RAD stays without news.

In case of great news, whoever shorted RAD could get in trouble and forced to buy very rapidly.

So, volume is still needed but anything over 20M shares traded could indicate a rapid upward movement.

Stay tuned.

TRADER ALERT RAD

HIghest volume per 5 minutes in the last 5 trading days. (buying)

Expect a change in direction from NOW. Either a short seller trap around 2,25$ or a solid upward movement.

CHK (Chesapeake energy) Potential for a solid play

Very interesting play in the world of energy as it has now achieved it's lowest price for the year and could rebound rapidly with any OIL movement up.

This is a highly volatile play but can generate a 5-8% gain (or loss...) rapidly

Stay cautious

TESLA (TSLA) Alert

Tesla just moved under the 20 AND the 50 days moving average. Could now test the 311$ limit and this being a major floor, if it was to get under, watch for the 300$

ALERT RAD Critical key level

RAD has just touched the critical level of 2,21$

If it goes under 2,19$ get ready for a plunge toward 2$ otherwise, it may return to 2,40$ rapidly

ALERT MEG (tsx)

Good dip this morning as there are some profit taking.

Maybe the right time to buy some more at about 4,55$ to 4.60$

Expect a rebound from here

ALERT RAD

As of this morning, no filing has been made on Edgar system in regard of the transaction Walgreen and Rite Aid disclosed on June 30th.

Very interesting to note also that the filing was remove 1 day before the 30 days end for the transaction receiving ok'd to go.

Are we now witnesses to poor judgement and poor management from both companies?

To me it is a slap in the face (again).

Very very surprising and no wonder stock price continues to slide.

Another interesting week is about to begin

This could be the week where incertainty will reigns on many fronts.

Politics will definitely have its say especially in Korea where war games will have North Korea continues to treat the US with empty rhetorics but annoying anyways.

Markets have also started to trade in range bound: NOT GOOD and could signal a shift in direction probably in the negative as we are overdue and i do think markets are way overbought. This may not happen this week but it is definitely coming. Maybe a good time to build some cash reserve and remove some bad ones from the portfolio.

There is an interesting one for the shorter called SDRL that is suppose to complete its reorganisation leaving actual shareholders in the dark. This is not one that i like too much but if they reorganize as they say, there could be some money to be made by shorting it but again be very careful and don't forget your stops loss.

Banks may not be the winners this week. The FED is not really interested in another interest hike this year because of inflation under control and this should give a little boost to GOLD. So i would avoid that sector this week and get some profits off.

Giant Amazon (AMZN) will not leave it there in regards of retail. Actually i think they will continue to eat up more. So i would be a buyer of AMZN and seller of most of the retail companies to the exception of Best Buy (BBY) that i think will continue to survive simply because they have invested a lot on internet buying and their way of doing it is exceptionally good.

Alphabet (GOOGL) is mostly stock in range bound trading and could be headed for more trouble as they will definitely suffer from higher advertising cost. They do have great products coming but not enough in my opinion to counter balance the expense problems. I expect another month or two largely trading sideways or at a 2-3% value loss.

Great Panther (GPL, GPR in Canada) is still a mystery. I think the problem is mostly related to silver value being way way to much volatile but GPL is getting ready to explode. Nice company without long term debt and profitable. Should be well above 2$. Nice profit to be made here if patience is one of your quality......

Ford (F): no change in my opinion about stock trading to continue nearing 10,50$ (lowest in 4 years) and maybe a temporary drop around 10$. Great value and great time to get in a bit a the time.

Rite Aid (RAD) That merger, euh, sale has been refiled (was to be last week) and they have now a new date of September 28th (or kind of) date to have their plans......reviewed. Not sure that those 2 management boards are planning but there is 1 question remaining: what happen to the clause of non-competitive deal that was to last 60 days? Is this not supposed to be ended by August 31st ? If this is still right who else will try to buy Rite Aid ? FRED......AMZN......Who else? Sure they know now how to get their share value going down and they now have mastered this art. STAY PRUDENT.

Hovnanian (HOV) is continuing its descent and unless something interesting happen, well they could break the 2$ limit then it could go as low as 1,60$. So this one is only good for some rapid trades hoping to grab 2-3% profit at the time.

Meg Energy (MEG TSX): Great upside to come. Definitely a good buy and its the same for Suncor (SUN)  but a lot less volatile.

Yamana Gold (AUY  YRI on the TSX) goes with gold value and actually good be a great one for some fast trades as volatility should continue to be high on Gold.

Have fun and stay tuned for some alerts this week  

ALERT FORD (F)

Ford is now at its lowest level since 4 years.

Even if i consider that bottom may not have been reached yet, it could be a good time to get back in a little a the time to avoid a falling knife situation.

In my opinion, it is now oversold and it could continue a bit if dow goes into correction.

If that was to happen, we could see 9,50$ to 9,75$ but it would not last.

This is safe heaven time

Honestly i do not like what i am seeing right now on many fronts.

President Trump is unable to keep his close friends 'close' to him as in the different councils he had organized himself and this could put his 'huge' plans on the side line for some time.

Amazon (AMZN) continues to scare most of the retailers except WallMart and Best Buy and even then is unable to stay above the 1000$ bracket.

Alphabet (GOOGL) still have difficulties with advertising cost going higher

Car makers (Ford in particular) are in trouble for sales being only correct nothing more but valued way above the 'correct' level

And i could continue with geo political events unclear to which direction they will go to......

All together, i only see a couple of winners at this time and it is gold, silver and oil.

Gold because by itself it is a safe heaven (by the way stay away from Bitcoin as it could get slammed) and silver because China being a great consumer and there economy is still running smoothly.

Oil has always been on the rise when conflicts appears and actually there is one major one not really taken into account and that is Venezuela.

So at this time, it would be wise to get some profit off the table and turn some of them into gold.

I expect a severe market corrections on all tech companies and this could lead to a flash crash by a domino effect.

Have a great week-end all. 

What's exciting this Friday

Ford: (F) getting close to my 10,50$ target. At that price it could be interesting to get in IF market stabilizes a bit. Watch for the DOW to react to toady's drop of 274 point as it could be the start of a correction and if that was to be the case, expect Ford to continue dropping toward 10,25$. In any case at 10,25$ or 10,50 it is a could entry point

Great Panther (GPL...GPR-TSX) Very interesting gain this week but still too early to sell in my opinion. If results continues to be that interesting, it could reach 2$ rapidly. It will not shout out straight to 2$ but it is getting there. Remember no long term debt for this one.

RAD Oh man this one is tricky. They even removed their last filing and no way to know if their refiling was done today. Wondering what is in it and i expect not much change except for a couple of stores here and there but again, i cannot trust totally this management team so stay carful. Volume tomorrow will indicate the direction. Low volume, more drops high volume great gain.

Gold will continue to raise but expect a lot of resistance at 1300$. But based upon open contracts (options call and put) i would not be surprised to see gold cross 1310$ on Monday so it could be a nice move to have some $$$  invested on that one

Barcelona's attacks, Trump losing it, Korea etc, a lot that could move the market rapidly.

Have fun and a nice week end to all my 30,000 (and more...) readers.

RAD alert

It seems that Rite Aid and Walgreen have remove their filing in regard of the transaction between the two.

They indicated that they would be refilling probably today or tomorrow and this will extend AGAIN the deadline for approval to mid September.

What is going on at this time is well beyond me and i would be very careful at this time as something has changed AGAIN.....

ALERT RAD

The trading pattern on RAD is exactly the same as yesterday and could indicate a large rebound and directional change toward my 2,75$ expectation.

Still, stay careful about a trader trap but trading as it is for two consecutive days does indicate that bulls are trying to regain control of RAD.

Rite Aid....a couple of IF'S

I was looking today on documents filed from Rite Aid in regard of their new store sales to Walgreen and what were the documents sent to FTC for review and unless i cannot read anymore, none was to be found.

This is at first really weird and tough about it for the reasons behind the fact that no document were filed since their announcement.

Here are some if's

1) Based upon their statement on the day they announced the sale they indicated that this 'will be a clear path'. Could that mean it is already approved by the FTC ?

2) If so, why no official release? Could it be because the FTC rules are in regard of the different states where Rite Aid is operating at this time and that they could have a minimal presence required to get the deal approved?

3) Could that explain why in the news release it was mentioned that the number of stores could vary a little ?

4) Could it be that at this time they are simply reviewing which stores to keep in some areas even if they already disclosed the pro forma results if results were 'after the sale' ?

5) Could it be that FTC already cleared the sale when this simple point has been corrected ?

It is hard to believe that either of those company would have gone so far in any kind of deal without prior consent from FTC and IF they were to had simply throw numbers to gain some investor confidence (no comment....) it would be a first in my recollection of more than 30 years of trading.

In my humble opinion, the deal is sealed, signed and delivered and some minor details are to be adresse before FTC gives its final clearance.

In the FTC history there is no deal that went to a second offer that have ever been rejected (please correct me if i am wrong)

Shorters: get ready to implode if news were to happen this week. You already have shorted over 110M shares (based upon july 31st stockwatch.com numbers) and in case of overnight news, there is simply no defence against that so better start to cover yourself before the storm hits you.

If before the deal was at 9$ including debt, it meant that it was a 16$ per share total (7$ of debt per share + the 9$ originally offered) and cut that in half for half the stores, it would mean that Rite Aid is now valued at 8$ per shares for the remaining of the company......

It is trading at 2,33$ meaning a possible gain of 5,67$ per share or 250% in a couple of days if the deal was to close rapidly.

Get ready and have fun.

ALERT RAD

Strange volume increase during the beginning of the last hour.

Been quiet all day than now major shift in volume and large orders.

Strange strange strange.

Either a trader trap or the rumor of FTC approval is getting bigger OR shorters are getting covered dur to the same reason

Trader point of view: INTERESTING but stay careful

How is this week shaping up (in my opinion)

I think that this will be a week without too much disturbance where OIL will continue to trade range bound and GOLD should do the same.

I do not expect that much of a swing anywhere but who knows.....things sometimes happen very fast.

My favorites for this week:

RAD (Rite Aid): it is still trying to get past its 2,45$ resistance but volume is still too low to have it goes over it. DO NOT SHORT as this one is getting dangerous and could explode with any good new.

F (Ford): continues to linger nowhere and i expect the fall will continue toward 10,50$ and maybe lower. Results were not good and there is no catalyst to change direction at this time.

GPL (Great Panther): drill results in Peru are looking ok and it could benefit from it this week.

GOOGL (Alphabet): I suspect it will get back to about 950$ this week but again this is another example or range bound trading.

AMZN (Amazon): Due to rebound toward to 1000$ mark and this could be the right week to accomplish it.

HOV (Hovnanian): continues to slide. No volume and going down. Not good. Could easily touch 2,01$ this week. If that happens and if it breaks the 2$, watch out. At this time stay on sideline.

EPO (Encanto Potash): still a strange game happening over this one. No way to know for sure what is right ans what is wrong. It is a wait and see game.

MEG (Meg Energy) It could suffer this week from 2 different things: profit taking and oil again in range bound trading pattern. Patience will be needed for the next rebound but this is an explosive stock

Have fun and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Alert RAD

If it breaks above 2,44$, the next stop is 2,90$

It is in the resistance area an it only needs some decent volume.

What about this week ???

Canadian markets are close Monday on here is what i will be looking for this week.

1) Will be interesting to see the answer from North Korea in regard of the new sanctions imposed on them. We have to take note that these sanctions may have been drafted and agreed but every country has now the obligation to adhere to those and it is not yet certain. This by itself could make gold attractive as a safe haven in case our friend over there decide to do another missile test in retaliation to these sanctions. Keep an eye on gold.

2) RAD: this one does not obey by any market rules.....range bound and far away from my 2,75$ price point called recently. Still believe that this is a way oversold stock but the absence of nice volume almost indicates that i am the only one thinking this way. I don't care being the only one as long as it reaches my target......

3) Oil rally.......see item 1 and add this to it: What is going on in Venezuela? Surprisingly, it does not seem that it disturbed the market too much but it could. Instability is not a good friend here in regard of prices.

4) HOV is getting close to oversold. Not there yet but it's coming. Very disturbing that the shorts have cover their back recently. More than half of the shorties are gone and this could indicate that HOV could be on the verge of a great upside swing. Keep an eye but stay prudent on this one.

5) EPO (Encanto Canada TSX) is a strange beast to get into. Nobody knows for sure it is not another fail startup in Canada or a hoax BUT if the story is true, it could be a very very interesting stock to watch in the coming weeks and months. I do think it is a valid corporation and that whatever was 'signed' (in theory...) was real. If that mine's really worth 2B$ and if they could find funds needed to proceed, it would be a major disruptor in the potash market and a great company to have invested in. At this time, it is a nice place to invest some left over coins......but we must stay careful.

6) TSLA: Oh my god was i wrong on this one.......But we have to stay very careful here because if there was to be any glitch anywhere in their deliveries,  it would be punished very badly. So still side lined at this time.

7) GOOGL: Alphabet was in my opinion severely battered recently when they released their quarterly results and i think it was a bit  too much. I do expect kind of range bound between 925$ and 975$ but it is highly sensitive to any new bad or good. At a 1000$ price, i prefer some other stocks at this time.

8) AMZN: This is the biggest disruptor possible in the market. They can and they will continue to change the face of retail side for many years to come. I would stay out of any retail stock with probably Best buy being the only exception.(BBY)

9) Silver is moving in the right direction but very slowly. Still the same for GPL (Great Panther GPR in Canada) as they are awaiting some permits. If they get them rapidly, stock will perform accordingly (upward to 2$ for GPL) otherwise it could go back to 1$ rapidly

That is it for this week and let see how it will unfold.

As usual, be careful and invest only what you can afford to lose. 

ALERT RAD

Buy signal is now in.

Expect resistance at 2,45$ but volume is increasing rapidly and bids are also showing great signal of strenght.

Does not look as a false signal (at this time) but stay careful

Air Canada (AC Toronto TSX)

With actual value of Air Canada, i would call that over from a trader point of view.

AC has been a great great investment but i think now it is above itself and the risk reward ratio is not relevant anymore and a lot more risky.

In my opinion, i would quit That position and look for another great one.

ALERT RAD

Based upon readings from many sources, RAD should get FTC approval rapidly.

Expect the stock to rally on nice volume.

Good signal would be over 30M shares and closing over 2,40$

Be careful to false signal where it goes back to the 2,25$ floor so it is better to wait until it closes over the 20 days moving average.

ALERT FORD results

Not good, not good not good

Expect some disturbance in the stock price and i would hold a couple of days until it stabilizes.

We could even see prices close to 10.50$

Time to simply wait and stay on sidelines.

What i will be checking up this week

This should be a quiet week (on the trading volume) but i will continue to monitor the following stocks:

1) MEG (tsx): will it continue to rise toward the 200 days moving average and get back over the 6$

2) YRI (tsx or  AUY  US market): greatly oversold and ready to pop up. 3,50$ is the next target

3) GPR (tsx or GPL US market): This is a very surprising one. It should already had passed the 1,75$ mark (canadian market) and still hovering around in a range bound.

4) F: should be starting it's recovery soon

5) GOOGL: don't count this one out for a good % return. Was smacked down for almost nothing now expect a rebound.

6) HOV: near its bottom and almost ready to climb back toward 2,75$

7) RAD: what a surprise but with volume so low, nowhere to go but down. I expect some large players to take notice of its price and get back in.

Have fun this week

YRi (AUY )

Keep an eye on this one.

This is an explosive stock that could procure a very nice return on a relatively short period of time.

All my indicators are showing way too oversold and it is ready to change direction as of now.

Target price of 4,75$ can$ (YRI)

RAD update

Oh boy was i wrong on this one........

Since it touched 2,77$, it has been a long and never ending descent even if a change in direction was indicated at about 2,40$

False signal......

Now RAD needs volume to get back on track until then, i still believe it is valued a lot more than the actual price but caution must be exercised here.

Another good example to always take some profit off the table when it hits a desired level (2,75$ in that case)

Lets see  how it plays out today.

MEG (Canada) C H E E R S !

Excellent results for the quarter and excellent stock price appreciation for this week.

Grab some profit but look at details for the quarter. It could very well be a highly profitable company.

Look at cost per barrel of oil. Very Very LOW....

That is performance.

FORD (F) as a follow up

Their revenues and profit are up.

So will the stock follow? Yes

I think that at this range it is a great time to get in a little. Just be careful as the DOW did had a great run recently and could correct a bit.

MEG energy.......Good call !!!

Now that it has happen, what to do ?

I still expect some range bound numbers for the next week so maybe take some profit off the table and be ready if it slip a bit.

My expectations are that oil will be in the 54-57$ range for the coming months and MEG will follow with a 5,50$ to 6$ but in any case, pocket some profit.

MEG energy (Canada) is on a nice rebound

MEG is now over PSAR and over 20 days moving average eating up the spread with 50 days moving average.

IF oil was to stabilize a bit over 50$, expect a run up toward the 6,27$ 200 days moving average.

Good chunk of profit to be made here if OIL continues to stay around 50$ but expect resistance at 4,45$ (can $)

RAD Another good one

EnvisionRx, 
      a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) and division of EnvisionRxOptions, a 
      wholly owned subsidiary of Rite 
      Aid Corporation, today announced that it has achieved renewal 
      of the Pharmacy 
      Benefit Management accreditation by URAC. EnvisionRx is one of only 
      27 PBMs to receive this accreditation, which Envision has held since 
      2006. This demonstrates a continuous, comprehensive commitment to 
      quality care, improved processes, transparency and better patient 
      outcomes.

SOURCE: EnvisionRx

EnvisionRxOptions Media contact: 
Bobby Creek, 813-690-8503 
bcreek@envisionrx.com

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Churn is almost done for today. Expect a run up