EVen if MB has been remove from my top list for 2010 i still believe the company has a great future. The only major problem is the unknow.
Tehy are operating from the province of Quebec and have been through many porlbems in the past and have always succeeded. (Remember the case against Lego!) They sell good products and again, their mistake was to become too big too fast by adding a company that did not worth more than 10% of the price paid and consequently having to recall many products that had a flaw in their basic design. That kind of problem can arise at any moment and a t any time (Toyota is actually a great example...)
There is no information circulating actually as to the share splits between actual shareholder and the one from the actual creditors and we will know when the final convocation is received for the special shareholder meeting..
Based upon first release, it will be about 6% to the actual shareholder and 94% to the new guys with a new share total of close to 600M.
To achive a 1$ share value they will need about 0,20 cents in profit per share per year and nothing is that easy when you forecast a break even result and sales are sluggish everywhere in the world.
Things can change rapidly but i cannot see a major return to profitability before 2011. After Q2 and Q3 results, i will see if MB deserve to get back in my top list.
Until then, well it will be a maket for speculator and please do not forget that the new shares will be issued at 0,50 so to me, it is indicating the real value of the company AT THIS moment.
dimanche 28 février 2010
vendredi 26 février 2010
ALERT DAN
Get ready for the next move.
If down, will dip to aroudn 10,60$ but if up, next level is 12,35$ then who knows.
You can gamble on a dip today but i personnally expect the start of a leg up to 11,40$
If down, will dip to aroudn 10,60$ but if up, next level is 12,35$ then who knows.
You can gamble on a dip today but i personnally expect the start of a leg up to 11,40$
PXLW is getting hit by profit taking
The last 2 days were difficult for PXLW and cannot blame the one who took some profit. Great job.
Now do not forget the fundamentals and unles they post a very bad surprise on Q1 2010, they are still poised to climb to the next level about 5,25$.
FOr the past 2 quarters, their results have been on the upper scale of management guidance and they expect 0,40 in profit for Q1 so the maths are easy: 0,40 * 4 quarters = 1,60$ per share multiplied by a very low conservative number pf 7 (tech companies normally use a factor between 10 and 15) then you see the potential being 11,20$ per share for this year.
It will not climb there in a one shot frame but expect end of Q2 (June 210) to be relatively close to 6$ unless bad news happen.
Now do not forget the fundamentals and unles they post a very bad surprise on Q1 2010, they are still poised to climb to the next level about 5,25$.
FOr the past 2 quarters, their results have been on the upper scale of management guidance and they expect 0,40 in profit for Q1 so the maths are easy: 0,40 * 4 quarters = 1,60$ per share multiplied by a very low conservative number pf 7 (tech companies normally use a factor between 10 and 15) then you see the potential being 11,20$ per share for this year.
It will not climb there in a one shot frame but expect end of Q2 (June 210) to be relatively close to 6$ unless bad news happen.
mercredi 24 février 2010
DAN
Is DAN ready to jump? I think so.
When you look at 2009 results of today, it may well mark the end of negative profit quarters and i think market is reacting the same.
Right when the conference call started, shares were a their lowest and from that bottom they hit 11,03$ right after. It may sounds like analyst did appreciate the call and the guidance for coming months.
IF you are in DAN i would hold steady to see how market plays it and expect some bumps along the road.
If you are not in yet, wait for the next dip.
When you look at 2009 results of today, it may well mark the end of negative profit quarters and i think market is reacting the same.
Right when the conference call started, shares were a their lowest and from that bottom they hit 11,03$ right after. It may sounds like analyst did appreciate the call and the guidance for coming months.
IF you are in DAN i would hold steady to see how market plays it and expect some bumps along the road.
If you are not in yet, wait for the next dip.
lundi 22 février 2010
PXLW Now my star #2 for 2010
PXLW is this Pixelworks or Fireworks???
(This analysis has not been either reviewed or cautioned by PXLW.)
What a great ride recently for this small cap company. In just a matter of days it went from 2,90$ to 4,65$ today before closing at 4,27$
What is happening there?
PXLW is a semiconductor company involved in the new technologies dedicating their products to high end displays, large scale projectors and LCD screens to name a few.
One of their biggest advantage (the opposite could also be true) is the fact that their stock float is relatively small with only about 13M shares on the market and already 29% owned by institutions.
By looking at their corporate site, you will see the numerous core technologies the own and it looks like totally on the edge of the technology. They have developed many software applications and seem to have many complete solutions.
So where is all that fuzz coming from? They are not new as they have been in business since 1997. They also had the privilege to get through the year 2000 bubble and in September 2000 they hit a whopping 143$ per share. So, it is not that also…
But, after many very bad quarters, they hit the bottom in march 2009 at a price of 0,37$. I guess at that time, everybody counted them out, dead without any ways to crawl back in…
That was a huge mistake.
They got back to 4,04$ on October 16th and were unable to get over that resistance due to a worldwide kind of recession and lack of orders.
But again, their management did what a company should do: get new products, get them better and increase your revenues.
And this is exactly what happened. When you look at their last quarter report, you will find that a major part of their total sales are coming from their newly developed products. By itself these new products results could mean a lot more orders to come in especially now that most of the talk in town is no longer ‘We are in recession’ but ‘We are going out of it’.
Now imagine for a moment that this company get back on track and start selling on the upper management guidance. As a matter of fact in Q4 this is exactly what they achieved.
Their gross margined increased substantially to almost 47% (versus 43% in Q3) and even if they posted a loss of 0, 07 per share, they end up the year with 31M$ in cash.
31M$ in cash???
That means almost 2,40$ IN CASH per share.
Hold on a second: It means that up until last week their share value was at par with their cash on hand. That does not make sense. Something must be wrong…Let’s get deeper!
Q4 2009 was a positive cash flow of 2,9M$ on sales of 19M$. Their total liability have been reduced from 86M$ to 43$ (50% reduction) Does that means that they can make close to 15% in cash appreciation every quarter??? Can’t be right!
Their management guidance at the high end of the scale is close to 0, 50 cents in profit with sales close to the 19M$ again.
On Q3 they also achieved the upper scale of the management guidance and they were also reporting a total debt of 15M$. Is that really all the debt load they have? Can’t be right!
Q2 they achieved the middle of management guidance and re-purchase of 60M$ in debentures leaving only 15M$ in debt…
So let’s recapitulate here:
Their shareholder equity is 13M$ (close to 1$ per share) and their net cash on hand is about 31M$. That number itself is impressive and tells me that have enough cash for their research and development and pay all debts as they presents.
A tech company in the semiconductors business will trade normally at a factor a lot higher than PXLW. For example Zoran (ZRAN) is actually trading near 1.64 price to sales ratio, AMD is trading at 0,99 times their sales, SIMG Silicon Image is trading at 1,22 price to sales ratio etc…
On earning per shares they beat AMD Advanced Micro Devices), BRCM (Broadcom) , ZRAN (Zoran) , NVDA (Nvidia Corp), SIMG (Silicon Image) RMBS (Rambus) and many more
So where is the problem?
They have the products, they have the management and since November 2006 when they restructure their business, they have delivered great results and achieved what they had planned most of the times.
Naturally whenever you restructure, you attack the credibility of the company and sometimes years can go by staying under the radars and this is the exact goal of this blog: find out the real next winner.
When you look at their results, their cash on hand, the lack of debts (this is good..) there are no reasons why that company could not attract more shareholders and I presume this is exactly what is happening: they are getting noticed.
When you compared to others in the same market and same category I have no doubt that PXLW should be at least in the same arena that their competitors and recognized as such. When keeping that in mind, I value the potential of PXLW as the following:
Cash on hand increasing by 2M$ per quarter in 2010 (share value of 3$)
Sales hitting 75M$ in 2010 (2.39 share to sales ration average equals a share value of 13,79$)
Profit per share of 1,20$ in 2010 (21 is the average for profit per share ratio) equals share value of 25.20$
So let’s be really pessimistic and cut all of those averages (after it is a small cap…) we have here a company basically evaluated only on its cash value. THAT IS A NONSENSE
In the coming months in a market going straight upward, I would not be surprised to see PXLW in the 10-15$ before we have our year end party. This led me to believe that they could return up to a 300% return based on Feb 22nd 2010 closing price and almost 500% since my recommendation on January.
They are now my STAR #2 for 2010
Enjoy your trading and never forget not to invest more money than you could lose. Always do your homework before investing in any company stock. This does not represent any investment advice. Also please note that a do have shares of that company as I have shares of all companies related to this site.
(This analysis has not been either reviewed or cautioned by PXLW.)
What a great ride recently for this small cap company. In just a matter of days it went from 2,90$ to 4,65$ today before closing at 4,27$
What is happening there?
PXLW is a semiconductor company involved in the new technologies dedicating their products to high end displays, large scale projectors and LCD screens to name a few.
One of their biggest advantage (the opposite could also be true) is the fact that their stock float is relatively small with only about 13M shares on the market and already 29% owned by institutions.
By looking at their corporate site, you will see the numerous core technologies the own and it looks like totally on the edge of the technology. They have developed many software applications and seem to have many complete solutions.
So where is all that fuzz coming from? They are not new as they have been in business since 1997. They also had the privilege to get through the year 2000 bubble and in September 2000 they hit a whopping 143$ per share. So, it is not that also…
But, after many very bad quarters, they hit the bottom in march 2009 at a price of 0,37$. I guess at that time, everybody counted them out, dead without any ways to crawl back in…
That was a huge mistake.
They got back to 4,04$ on October 16th and were unable to get over that resistance due to a worldwide kind of recession and lack of orders.
But again, their management did what a company should do: get new products, get them better and increase your revenues.
And this is exactly what happened. When you look at their last quarter report, you will find that a major part of their total sales are coming from their newly developed products. By itself these new products results could mean a lot more orders to come in especially now that most of the talk in town is no longer ‘We are in recession’ but ‘We are going out of it’.
Now imagine for a moment that this company get back on track and start selling on the upper management guidance. As a matter of fact in Q4 this is exactly what they achieved.
Their gross margined increased substantially to almost 47% (versus 43% in Q3) and even if they posted a loss of 0, 07 per share, they end up the year with 31M$ in cash.
31M$ in cash???
That means almost 2,40$ IN CASH per share.
Hold on a second: It means that up until last week their share value was at par with their cash on hand. That does not make sense. Something must be wrong…Let’s get deeper!
Q4 2009 was a positive cash flow of 2,9M$ on sales of 19M$. Their total liability have been reduced from 86M$ to 43$ (50% reduction) Does that means that they can make close to 15% in cash appreciation every quarter??? Can’t be right!
Their management guidance at the high end of the scale is close to 0, 50 cents in profit with sales close to the 19M$ again.
On Q3 they also achieved the upper scale of the management guidance and they were also reporting a total debt of 15M$. Is that really all the debt load they have? Can’t be right!
Q2 they achieved the middle of management guidance and re-purchase of 60M$ in debentures leaving only 15M$ in debt…
So let’s recapitulate here:
Their shareholder equity is 13M$ (close to 1$ per share) and their net cash on hand is about 31M$. That number itself is impressive and tells me that have enough cash for their research and development and pay all debts as they presents.
A tech company in the semiconductors business will trade normally at a factor a lot higher than PXLW. For example Zoran (ZRAN) is actually trading near 1.64 price to sales ratio, AMD is trading at 0,99 times their sales, SIMG Silicon Image is trading at 1,22 price to sales ratio etc…
On earning per shares they beat AMD Advanced Micro Devices), BRCM (Broadcom) , ZRAN (Zoran) , NVDA (Nvidia Corp), SIMG (Silicon Image) RMBS (Rambus) and many more
So where is the problem?
They have the products, they have the management and since November 2006 when they restructure their business, they have delivered great results and achieved what they had planned most of the times.
Naturally whenever you restructure, you attack the credibility of the company and sometimes years can go by staying under the radars and this is the exact goal of this blog: find out the real next winner.
When you look at their results, their cash on hand, the lack of debts (this is good..) there are no reasons why that company could not attract more shareholders and I presume this is exactly what is happening: they are getting noticed.
When you compared to others in the same market and same category I have no doubt that PXLW should be at least in the same arena that their competitors and recognized as such. When keeping that in mind, I value the potential of PXLW as the following:
Cash on hand increasing by 2M$ per quarter in 2010 (share value of 3$)
Sales hitting 75M$ in 2010 (2.39 share to sales ration average equals a share value of 13,79$)
Profit per share of 1,20$ in 2010 (21 is the average for profit per share ratio) equals share value of 25.20$
So let’s be really pessimistic and cut all of those averages (after it is a small cap…) we have here a company basically evaluated only on its cash value. THAT IS A NONSENSE
In the coming months in a market going straight upward, I would not be surprised to see PXLW in the 10-15$ before we have our year end party. This led me to believe that they could return up to a 300% return based on Feb 22nd 2010 closing price and almost 500% since my recommendation on January.
They are now my STAR #2 for 2010
Enjoy your trading and never forget not to invest more money than you could lose. Always do your homework before investing in any company stock. This does not represent any investment advice. Also please note that a do have shares of that company as I have shares of all companies related to this site.
TVI and Balabag
Very surprising day for TVI as the news were very good this morning and share price hold for most of the day until some 1,5M shares were sold 15 minutes before closing.
Either somebody would not like to see TVI rise (i doubt it) or somebody just goofed...
Volume again was great and TVI will get it's days sooner than later.
Hold on strong on this one.
Either somebody would not like to see TVI rise (i doubt it) or somebody just goofed...
Volume again was great and TVI will get it's days sooner than later.
Hold on strong on this one.
ALERT PXLW TVI
PXLW is on a consolidation phase. Expect leg up today end of day unless major block sold.
TVI the ask have been moving upward releasing some selling pressure.
Expect a leg up to 0,12 to 0,13 unless major block are throwed in.
TVI the ask have been moving upward releasing some selling pressure.
Expect a leg up to 0,12 to 0,13 unless major block are throwed in.
dimanche 21 février 2010
MB i s no longer on the top list
After reviewing this little analysis, you will understand why MB has been eliminated from my top list of winners for this year. The door is now wide open for a new comer.
This review has not been cautioned or reviewed by Mega Brands
The future of the company is now in the hands of the new owners…(if approved by actual shareholders in March) and based upon numbers below MB is NO LONGER part of my picks for 2010. Even if I think they will probably succeed in saving the company, there is no way in my opinion that their stock will be having the expected results to be on my list and here is why.
Originally called Ritvik then Mega Blok, this Quebec company has been a French Canadian company flagship for a long time until they tried to be what they never were: too diversified and they pay the price for it.
The transaction when they bought RoseArt for 350M$ (their value was about 45M$ only) was the start of their descent to hell.
Lawsuits after lawsuits, they ended up at their actual position: worthless.
OK, I am being rude here and they finally found a solution to stay in business and avoid going belly up.
Now, what about the regular shareholders: will they ever get back their investment value???
With the dilution and the possibility of a greater one if everybody was to exercise their warrants, actual shareholder will only get about 6.3% of the company and the balance will be ‘given’ to the creditors.
The impact of this dilution is naturally better than the actual bankruptcy of the company as we have seen in the past many bad stories (IQW Quebecor World ) where even if the company survived all shareholders were eliminated to the profit of creditors.
But this being said will we see MB going into the penny stock or will they emerge?
Let’s see some numbers based upon their last 4 years average:
Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *
2004 92,3 11,5 0,39 29,33
2005 175,9 20,9 0,61 31,39 21,00
2006 547,3 25,3 0,74 34,18 24,75
2007 524,5 -66,7 -2,82 34,4 11,00
2008 447,5 -458,7 -12,53 36,61 3,50
2009 231,6 32,8 0,61 60,124 0,50 9 months figure
It is easy to see from those numbers that the troubles started a couple of years ago. Do not forget also that 2009 results are including a 1 time event (72M$) and if removed from their operations, they show a deficit of around 40M$
Therefore in 2010 their interest charges will drop significantly by about 35M$ (based on Sedar filings) and litigation fees will disappear almost totally giving them a close to break-even situation.
My concern is the growth rate that I cannot foresee actually and the market reaction. At this moment, I cannot estimate more than the following results
Projected earnings
Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *
2010 265 15 0,04 335 0,54 No warrant conversion taken into consideration
265 15 0,03 578 0,31 Fully diluted
* Value range is average for the year
I must agree that they have great products and their balance sheet will be greatly enhance but at this time this company stock price is reflecting a value close to their books and until 2011 even if movement in price is great, their situation with the warrants will put a cover on any major stock price increase as it will put great pressure on any possible gains.
In my opinion, the share price will trade for the rest of this year between 0,27 and 0,60 being far from minimum expected of 200% to be on my Stock Star search list. If stock was to fell under 0,30 it MAY do a comeback on this list depending of the reasons behind the drop and that situation has not worsen.
Have a good one
Please: always do your own DD before making any investment decisions and never invest more than you can lose.
This review has not been cautioned or reviewed by Mega Brands
The future of the company is now in the hands of the new owners…(if approved by actual shareholders in March) and based upon numbers below MB is NO LONGER part of my picks for 2010. Even if I think they will probably succeed in saving the company, there is no way in my opinion that their stock will be having the expected results to be on my list and here is why.
Originally called Ritvik then Mega Blok, this Quebec company has been a French Canadian company flagship for a long time until they tried to be what they never were: too diversified and they pay the price for it.
The transaction when they bought RoseArt for 350M$ (their value was about 45M$ only) was the start of their descent to hell.
Lawsuits after lawsuits, they ended up at their actual position: worthless.
OK, I am being rude here and they finally found a solution to stay in business and avoid going belly up.
Now, what about the regular shareholders: will they ever get back their investment value???
With the dilution and the possibility of a greater one if everybody was to exercise their warrants, actual shareholder will only get about 6.3% of the company and the balance will be ‘given’ to the creditors.
The impact of this dilution is naturally better than the actual bankruptcy of the company as we have seen in the past many bad stories (IQW Quebecor World ) where even if the company survived all shareholders were eliminated to the profit of creditors.
But this being said will we see MB going into the penny stock or will they emerge?
Let’s see some numbers based upon their last 4 years average:
Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *
2004 92,3 11,5 0,39 29,33
2005 175,9 20,9 0,61 31,39 21,00
2006 547,3 25,3 0,74 34,18 24,75
2007 524,5 -66,7 -2,82 34,4 11,00
2008 447,5 -458,7 -12,53 36,61 3,50
2009 231,6 32,8 0,61 60,124 0,50 9 months figure
It is easy to see from those numbers that the troubles started a couple of years ago. Do not forget also that 2009 results are including a 1 time event (72M$) and if removed from their operations, they show a deficit of around 40M$
Therefore in 2010 their interest charges will drop significantly by about 35M$ (based on Sedar filings) and litigation fees will disappear almost totally giving them a close to break-even situation.
My concern is the growth rate that I cannot foresee actually and the market reaction. At this moment, I cannot estimate more than the following results
Projected earnings
Year Sales Profit EPS (diluted) Shares (diluted) Value range *
2010 265 15 0,04 335 0,54 No warrant conversion taken into consideration
265 15 0,03 578 0,31 Fully diluted
* Value range is average for the year
I must agree that they have great products and their balance sheet will be greatly enhance but at this time this company stock price is reflecting a value close to their books and until 2011 even if movement in price is great, their situation with the warrants will put a cover on any major stock price increase as it will put great pressure on any possible gains.
In my opinion, the share price will trade for the rest of this year between 0,27 and 0,60 being far from minimum expected of 200% to be on my Stock Star search list. If stock was to fell under 0,30 it MAY do a comeback on this list depending of the reasons behind the drop and that situation has not worsen.
Have a good one
Please: always do your own DD before making any investment decisions and never invest more than you can lose.
samedi 20 février 2010
PXLW
WOW did we hit a wall totally unexpected at 4,31$. Lots of profit taking but low volume.
These are good signs as it did close over the prior day evenif it corrected almost by 0,70.
Monday will be a great day to watch and expect a good swing either way.
These are good signs as it did close over the prior day evenif it corrected almost by 0,70.
Monday will be a great day to watch and expect a good swing either way.
vendredi 19 février 2010
ALERT PXLW (2)
No more resistance until 5,45$ then 7,45$
This stock is on fire...
With last quarter results way above management view and revenues coming a lot more from new products the bad days seems to be over.
They are expecting something around 0,40 profit per share in Q1 2010 and if they do realise that, it will mean an average of 1,60 per year thus a projected share price of 11,20$ based on a very low multiplicator of 7 (range for tech company are more over at 12 that would give PXLW a share price of 19,80$. My expectations for sometime in 2010 (most probably after Q3 reults in october) would be 14$ leading to a 600% gain this year.
This stock is on fire...
With last quarter results way above management view and revenues coming a lot more from new products the bad days seems to be over.
They are expecting something around 0,40 profit per share in Q1 2010 and if they do realise that, it will mean an average of 1,60 per year thus a projected share price of 11,20$ based on a very low multiplicator of 7 (range for tech company are more over at 12 that would give PXLW a share price of 19,80$. My expectations for sometime in 2010 (most probably after Q3 reults in october) would be 14$ leading to a 600% gain this year.
ALERT TVI
Share price very stable on strange stock movement.
I expect news within the next 10 days that could rally this stock to about 0,14
Do not forget that TVI has a lot of new projects that could be reveal this year and any one of them will create a great leg up as this is a really undervalued mining company. In my opinion, this company should already be over 0,30 and something is helding them down.
In any case, the longer actual price stay relatively stable, the igher the movement will be.
I expect news within the next 10 days that could rally this stock to about 0,14
Do not forget that TVI has a lot of new projects that could be reveal this year and any one of them will create a great leg up as this is a really undervalued mining company. In my opinion, this company should already be over 0,30 and something is helding them down.
In any case, the longer actual price stay relatively stable, the igher the movement will be.
ALERT DAN
Dan is on it's new leg up.
Expect 12,25$ within a week unless results that will be published next week are bad.
My expectations are a break even quarter. If they hit a profit wathc for a fantastic rally that could lead DAN up to about 15$
Expect 12,25$ within a week unless results that will be published next week are bad.
My expectations are a break even quarter. If they hit a profit wathc for a fantastic rally that could lead DAN up to about 15$
ALERT OCNF
OCNF has probably established his base in the 0,79 to 0,82. Wait for a small dip to 0,799 today and if it goes to 0,85 after, that will be a buy signal. If you want to get in now, be careful as results are due on feb 23rd (next tuesday) and may cause a surprise either way.
ALERT MB
Just found out that MB has filed a chapter 15 last thursday.
At that point in time, if you have still some and did not took your profit in the 1,40$ range, HOLD on as it may have a very negative and temporary impact on the shares. It could well be a good opportunity to diminish your average cost.
More news to come.
Have a good one
François
At that point in time, if you have still some and did not took your profit in the 1,40$ range, HOLD on as it may have a very negative and temporary impact on the shares. It could well be a good opportunity to diminish your average cost.
More news to come.
Have a good one
François
jeudi 18 février 2010
ALERT PXLW
Hope you bought some on my last alert...30% gain in only 6 days
Maybe time to grab some profit. I would sell 5-10% and wiat for the dip. If it goes as expected there could be another dip of about 0,20cents tomorrow during the day. Use that opportunity to increase your portfolio. If you cannot get that price continue to monitor as i think the run will not be over for some time. I should post a complete analysis during next week but i can already tell you that this company does worth a lot more than the 4$ achieved today.
Have a great evening
Maybe time to grab some profit. I would sell 5-10% and wiat for the dip. If it goes as expected there could be another dip of about 0,20cents tomorrow during the day. Use that opportunity to increase your portfolio. If you cannot get that price continue to monitor as i think the run will not be over for some time. I should post a complete analysis during next week but i can already tell you that this company does worth a lot more than the 4$ achieved today.
Have a great evening
mardi 16 février 2010
ALERT DAN
Here it is. DAN is back and expect now a rise till about 12,50$ with dome dips tomorrow morning and around 11,50$
The Toyota recall is by far less than expected and will now push it until Q4 are release next week.
Good opportunity buy.
The Toyota recall is by far less than expected and will now push it until Q4 are release next week.
Good opportunity buy.
dimanche 14 février 2010
ALERT DAN
With the recently announced recall for 8000 trucks that contain a part that could break, keep an eye on DAN Tuesday morning (market close on monday) and get ready to grasp your profit awaiting dip if it was to start a descent. Be careful as opening price could already reflect some drop and normally things tends to correct themselve within the first 10-15 minutes of trading.
I do not expect a major drop as DAN is over 70% owned by institutions but just in case.
Have a great evening
I do not expect a major drop as DAN is over 70% owned by institutions but just in case.
Have a great evening
vendredi 12 février 2010
ALERT PXLW
PXLW has established a new base between 2,90 and 3,10.
Next buy signal is 3,22$ on good volume (100K and more)
Next buy signal is 3,22$ on good volume (100K and more)
The Gamble of the year VEI
Not in my top 5 list for this year, but if you were looking in hte next coming months for andrenaline and have a couple of hundred$ left aside that you might want to risk, this play could be really interesting.
Here's why:
This article has not been cautioned by VEI and only reflects my personal opinion and point of view.
VEI: This Company could be the gamble of the year.
What’s going on with VEI ? Since December 2009, no news, no nothing. Don’t they have a new partnership with Answernet? Is it going well, is it generating new customers, are they finally going to get some margins somewhere????
As you can see they are more questions than answers right now and looking at rumours they could be either bought out by somebody else, they could have run out of cash in mid-December so it is time to try to put the right things in perspective.
VEI is a communication company and have one lead product Tabrio that enable communication between customers and companies allowing instant communication between that said customer and the company selling a product.
The difference is that Tabrio is not a device where you need a mike or earphone to communicate nor do you have to type your questions as in a chat room. No, Tabrio will connect your phone number to the call center. Very bright! It is also accessible to the regular you and me to connect between friends around the globe at great prices.
Communication over the net (Voice over Internet Protocol) is getting more and more popular but the problem is a very low % of margin. This is where I think VEI has a problem.
Their cost of sale and marketing is actually much higher than any other business type and would only be worthy if customer base was to grow at a very high speed. Even if 2008 and first 3 quarters of 2009 seem to show a growing number of customers, we do not have any confirmation due to a lack of updates from VEI
Going to Downloads.com you can find the software for free and up to date there were about 75000 downloads since January 2009 and 18 last week. So what does it says: not too popular in the public clientele or not advertised at all. Hope it is going MUCH better on the business customers. I must admit that you can download Tabrio almost on every popular software download sites and the number could be a bit higher. I would be very curious to see the actual number of downloads versus the actual number of users.
Beginning of December they signed a multi-year agreement with Answernet getting access to their 35000 customers for marketing and selling Tabrio.
Since then, nothing seems to have happen so only questions are still in the air and the problem with techno companies is that their past is not warrant of the future as the technology is changing too fast to be compared.
In my humble opinion they sales were not a success, their margin $ is getting lower and their ebitda is probably negative.
There is also a review you can find on internet:
http://www.qualidator.com/WQM/en/TestWebsite/http_www.tabrio.com/Report1851698/ResultCode32.aspx
There score was around 70% of the bench tests. Not too bad but average.
This is not a bright outlook and bankruptcy is getting close to reality base on the absence of comments or news release. When everything goes silent normally there are problems coming.
Even the blogs sites seem confused by the actual situation (stockhouse.com )
To be able to get around this they will need a major increase in customer usage fees or a miracle.
The only encouraging point is that nothing has been filed with Sedar the official filing site for any news release and important changes. (filing there is not a choice but an obligation)
Had they already choose to go bankrupt; they would have filed their intentions but so far nothing. So they could very well be in discussion to get new financing or private placement in exchange for new shares, warrants or options. Who knows?
How about getting another great deal signed?
They have many times resurrected from almost nothing and they could well be pulling out another rabbit from their hat.
And you know what, that could well be the case. On many occasions junior companies (in the sense of capitalization) rebound from their lows and explode. They still have a product, they are still doing business, and they are still making some sales so why not tell the whole world!
IN any case, if you have some $$$ to spare, this play could very well be the play of the year.
Have a great day
François
Here's why:
This article has not been cautioned by VEI and only reflects my personal opinion and point of view.
VEI: This Company could be the gamble of the year.
What’s going on with VEI ? Since December 2009, no news, no nothing. Don’t they have a new partnership with Answernet? Is it going well, is it generating new customers, are they finally going to get some margins somewhere????
As you can see they are more questions than answers right now and looking at rumours they could be either bought out by somebody else, they could have run out of cash in mid-December so it is time to try to put the right things in perspective.
VEI is a communication company and have one lead product Tabrio that enable communication between customers and companies allowing instant communication between that said customer and the company selling a product.
The difference is that Tabrio is not a device where you need a mike or earphone to communicate nor do you have to type your questions as in a chat room. No, Tabrio will connect your phone number to the call center. Very bright! It is also accessible to the regular you and me to connect between friends around the globe at great prices.
Communication over the net (Voice over Internet Protocol) is getting more and more popular but the problem is a very low % of margin. This is where I think VEI has a problem.
Their cost of sale and marketing is actually much higher than any other business type and would only be worthy if customer base was to grow at a very high speed. Even if 2008 and first 3 quarters of 2009 seem to show a growing number of customers, we do not have any confirmation due to a lack of updates from VEI
Going to Downloads.com you can find the software for free and up to date there were about 75000 downloads since January 2009 and 18 last week. So what does it says: not too popular in the public clientele or not advertised at all. Hope it is going MUCH better on the business customers. I must admit that you can download Tabrio almost on every popular software download sites and the number could be a bit higher. I would be very curious to see the actual number of downloads versus the actual number of users.
Beginning of December they signed a multi-year agreement with Answernet getting access to their 35000 customers for marketing and selling Tabrio.
Since then, nothing seems to have happen so only questions are still in the air and the problem with techno companies is that their past is not warrant of the future as the technology is changing too fast to be compared.
In my humble opinion they sales were not a success, their margin $ is getting lower and their ebitda is probably negative.
There is also a review you can find on internet:
http://www.qualidator.com/WQM/en/TestWebsite/http_www.tabrio.com/Report1851698/ResultCode32.aspx
There score was around 70% of the bench tests. Not too bad but average.
This is not a bright outlook and bankruptcy is getting close to reality base on the absence of comments or news release. When everything goes silent normally there are problems coming.
Even the blogs sites seem confused by the actual situation (stockhouse.com )
To be able to get around this they will need a major increase in customer usage fees or a miracle.
The only encouraging point is that nothing has been filed with Sedar the official filing site for any news release and important changes. (filing there is not a choice but an obligation)
Had they already choose to go bankrupt; they would have filed their intentions but so far nothing. So they could very well be in discussion to get new financing or private placement in exchange for new shares, warrants or options. Who knows?
How about getting another great deal signed?
They have many times resurrected from almost nothing and they could well be pulling out another rabbit from their hat.
And you know what, that could well be the case. On many occasions junior companies (in the sense of capitalization) rebound from their lows and explode. They still have a product, they are still doing business, and they are still making some sales so why not tell the whole world!
IN any case, if you have some $$$ to spare, this play could very well be the play of the year.
Have a great day
François
mardi 9 février 2010
ALERT DAN
Seems that finally DAN has came out of it's bottom. Watch tomorrow morning if volume is there and price goes over 10,53$ then that will be another good buy signal.
If i would like to be gambler , i would wait AFTER it crosses 10,53 that it retrace to about 10,25-10,30 to buy on the dip.
Remember that 2009 results are due on feb 24th so expect volatility around that date.
Have a great evening
François
If i would like to be gambler , i would wait AFTER it crosses 10,53 that it retrace to about 10,25-10,30 to buy on the dip.
Remember that 2009 results are due on feb 24th so expect volatility around that date.
Have a great evening
François
lundi 8 février 2010
ALERT DND
Not part of my top 5 for the year but this could be a really good winner in the small cap pharmaceutical arena.
Good cash on hand and awaiting final FDA approval after setting their patent infrigment over their lead product.
FDA has already stated it would be approved if suit was to be fixed.
Now done since january 2010 and i expect a good rally very soon as normally 90 days are required for acceptation and we are getting realy close to this date. (unless an appeal is made in the next couple of days)
Again, it could be a real gamble so please do not invest more than you could loose as this one might be highly volatile.
Have a great day
François
Good cash on hand and awaiting final FDA approval after setting their patent infrigment over their lead product.
FDA has already stated it would be approved if suit was to be fixed.
Now done since january 2010 and i expect a good rally very soon as normally 90 days are required for acceptation and we are getting realy close to this date. (unless an appeal is made in the next couple of days)
Again, it could be a real gamble so please do not invest more than you could loose as this one might be highly volatile.
Have a great day
François
ALERT PXLW ETFC
These 2 have probably bottomed end of last week.
Last results for ETFC and PXLW are very encouragin and i think we may well be on a good upleg
Have a good day
Last results for ETFC and PXLW are very encouragin and i think we may well be on a good upleg
Have a good day
mardi 2 février 2010
ALERT TVI ETFC
TVI (TSX)
The # of ask is getting lower and volume is picking up.
Next major buy signal is 0,115
Actual signal is BUY
ETFC (NYSE)
Consolidation phase going well after sudden drop to 1,52. Next buy siganl is 1,63.
Actual signal is HOLD
Have a good one
François
The # of ask is getting lower and volume is picking up.
Next major buy signal is 0,115
Actual signal is BUY
ETFC (NYSE)
Consolidation phase going well after sudden drop to 1,52. Next buy siganl is 1,63.
Actual signal is HOLD
Have a good one
François
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