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vendredi 22 septembre 2017

TGIF What to expect

It looks like this is going to be a really quiet Friday without too much action on the markets based on actual readings on the actual action on premarket.

Overall, i still thinks that RAD will make a comeback next week especially during results day (next Thursday). Results will be very bad (as usual) but we will get a better feel on how they will use the proceeds from the sale to WBA as they already received 325M$. Will be interesting to have a look of where that money went. Anything else than repaying some debt will be seen as ridiculous and shares will react accordingly.

GOLD and SILVER are in a slump right now because of the possible December US rate hike. It would continue to trade this way for some time.

OIL may have started a rally that will be light in the beginning but to intensify later in fall. I expect a 60$ price end of this year.

Retail sector continue to be in jeopardy : thanks to Amazon. But we should not forget the other great retailers of this world: Best Buy, Costco and WalMart. When you add these 4 together, well, not much left for the other on a long term view. Actual retail will have to adjust rapidly or disappear.

Talking about trouble, Toys R Us is one of the best example of retail store having not adjust to market demand for years. Stores are mostly as they were 20 years ago without much thinking in their design but most especially in their service offered to customers. Their online site is not performing and there are still no way to order and get it in store asap....look to where it drive them: Chapter 11.

Advice to other retailers: react NOW or get lost.

Amazon is in to stay and with their mind set on technology serving customers, they may have found the right recipe for the next 10 years (or until somebody gets a better way of doing it)

Alphabet continues to struggle with their share price. Yes they do have great products but these ideas have already been taken into account in the share price. Advertising revenues will continue to go down, and unless they find something totally new, it will continue to trade range bound.

Have you seen Air Canada (AC-TSX) recently ? WOW... i recommended buying that stock at 2,50ish and it is now well over 26$. NICE GAIN. Same for CHR-TSC (Chorus aviation). But be careful as they have shot well over their target range and could correct a lot. So great time to take some profit off the table.

Now, if i had to make a bet on a US bank, i would go for FBP (First bank of Puerto Rico).  I would wait a bit for correction to end at about 5,25$ and i expect over 7$ when all is set and repaired.

That is it for the Friday Edition, have fun

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