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samedi 23 septembre 2017

EPO Value in the long term

EPO is on track to become THE potash mine in Canada and profitability is on the horizon but the hard question is : Who will benefit from it ?

Whoever has already invested in any business knows for sure that the one who brings the money is the one that owns the most, no matter who invested first. This is business 101 !

In the beginning some invested their hard earned money into a project that seemed full of promises and EPO was (is still) one of them.

The problem here is that many thought that by investing 1000$ they would end up with 100 times their investment and unfortunately, it does not work like that.

A mine the size of EPO needs billions of dollars to end up producing any goods and any first investors should have know that, no matter what, if they wanted to retain the same % of the final project, they would have to invest more and more along the way. That is the way businesses work.

EPO trades on the venture stock exchange.......or maybe i should have called it more properly the 'risk capital' exchange. This is where you invest early and sell early to profit. If you stay in those stocks forever, you end up being a bag holder of some worthless stock (because of dilution) and that must be understood carefully before investing in ANY of those Canadian Venture stocks. That exchange is more adapted to traders than investors for that reason and this could also explain why the Canadian Venture is having so much problems in gaining real value traction.

So, with that in mind, if you want to retain your original % value of the company, you will have to invest along the way many many times, as capital will flow in, to allow the project gaining some life.

In case of EPO, we are lucky to see some light at the end of the tunnel. We could have seen our investment simply goes down the drain as it is with almost 90% of venture stock.

EPO was managed properly enough to have a long term deal signed, for all (and more), of its potash mining potential. By itself this means a great value.

Now, it's the time to get serious and find the right way to build the mine.

We are talking in billions of dollar and even if we would like to retain our actual % of the company, this is a dream unless one of us could shed the needed money. So expect 1 or 2 reverse split during the next 3-5 years or until the mine is build. I personally expect a reverse split to happen no later than early next year allowing EPO to draw the millions $ needed, and another one before getting the Billion dollars needed to construct that mine.

Remember also that EPO has a very complex owners share structure with many large investors involved. They will not let their capital evaporate.

So even if the trading company was to be successful, there is simply no way they could generate enough profit to pay for the mine by itself and EPO will need financing in an hostile environment and cash strap financing possibility.

Don't get me wrong, EPO is a fantastic project on the long term BUT investors will have to inject a lot more money to retain their company % and profit from it.

The only actual way of making money out of EPO AT THIS TIME, is to trade it up whenever possible, profit from the trade, wait for a dip than do it again. It will be a lot more profitable than investing in thinking this will be profitable on the long term without investing more.

Whenever we talk about business fundamentals, we have to remember that EPO actually is worth nothing if mine is not build EVEN with the signed agreement. We have to ask ourselves how much profit it could earn being a middle men in the potash industry. Yes there is some money to be made out of this trading corp but % would have to be very low.

The recent price movement (or absence of it) shows without doubt that: take off agreement and financing possibilities are not enough to justify any large value to EPO. The only thing that will allow a nice price increase is money and where it will come from. Until then..........it's a dream but if you are trading it properly, EPO could procure you very nice gains by buying the dip and selling higher until all financing is in place.

Best of luck to all EPO investor (and traders)

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