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mercredi 8 février 2012

ALERT INT

Another transaction for INT today where INT will now have a partnership with Syncronica. That means that Orstbo could be preloaded on many mobile devices. Syncronica has over 100 device manufacturer and mobile operator.

With this partnership, INT could be hitting the major leagues from now on and that by itself could dramatically change the value of Ortsbo IPO.

On the other hand, shares suffered a bit today but INT is still on an explosive pattern. Would that last deal not being liked by the markets, volume would have been a lot higher today with a drop much heavier than a mere 2 cents. That does not mean that tomorrow may not be another down day but i would think that INT is very stable and still within the right parameters for growth.

INT has been very silent since last announcement about raising the dividend up to 30% of Ortsbo pre-money and i suspect that they are actually in a forced silence.

Anytime you are to issue an IPO you have a certain black out period where you cannot issue public comments that could be seen as promotion for the company or it's product.

(from Wikipedia)

There are two time windows commonly referred to as "quiet periods" during an IPO's history. The first and the one linked above is the period of time following the filing of the company's S-1 but before SEC staff declare the registration statement effective. During this time, issuers, company insiders, analysts, and other parties are legally restricted in their ability to discuss or promote the upcoming IPO (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2005).

So this could explain the reason why it is excessively quiet about Ortsbo users number and mobile user numbers. If this is the case, expect a number of great NR following SEC approval for listing.

At this moment it is difficult to know when INT will file for an IPO but it had already announced their intentions and some of the parameters. As of Feb 3rd, INT has not officially filed for an IPO and you can track it at this adress:

http://www.hoovers.com/ipo-central/ipo-filings/100004162-1.html

The last user number update was on november 1st 2011 and we are now at about the 90 days mark.

There is 2 possibilities about this: either numbers have not continued to climb as rapidly, they have been forced into quiet mode since that date or they are in negociation to be acquired.

It looks like the first option is almost impossible with all the exposure INT got since that time so i would likely tend to believe that it is option #2 or option #3.

That being the case, 90 days would expire about in 5-10 days if we take into account holiday period. So i am now expecting full disclosure of users, profitability and all other important data in the coming days.

Also interesting to note that an insider sold about 60,000 shares 2 days ago but guess what: when you look at the exact options number that were excercised, you will find that 300,000 were bought and if you make the calculation, you will find that the quantity sold was covering the total amount needed to pay for his options and income tax related to his gains. So to me it is indicating something is coming in the most favorable way.

In all of those scenarios possible, remember that an IPO is coming for an unknow value but no less than 210M$ and a dividend up to 30% meaning up to 63M$ being close to 0,50 cents per share leaving a risk to reward ratio very very low. The downside for INT is around 0,25 and the upside is only limited by it's IPO and the details of the offer that will come rapidly.

I am not nervous about the last couple of days where INT has lost a bit of steam and some pennies and i would be more nervous about thinking to get into INT on the next 0,60 or less price tag.

As always never invest more than you can afford to lose and nobody ever went bankrupt by taking a profit.

Also note that i should be posting an update about INT very soon whenever i get clarification on some of the items that i will be reporting in that update.

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