UPDATE YRCW

Up to now volume has been under my estimation and gain lot less than expected.

Seems that many shorters are not that nervous and regular investors are still nervous.

2 more hours to go and still expect 0,335.

A gain is a gain but will see tomorrow if trend continues or it would finally be only a bubble...

UPDATE YRCW

Pre market volume is really good as is the sahre price nearing the 0,36 with over 3.5M share already traded.

This could be the first day of a great leg up. Expect over 0,45 today

URGENT ALERT YRCW

Based upon their last NR, YRCW could be headed much higher monday morning.

After hours high were close to 0,40 to settle at 0,36.

What is really interesting in here is the fact that over 120M shares are shorted at this time and i think all of them read the news friday.

So if i was them, i would be running to cover first thing monday and see where it stop. But do not get fooled take some profit along the way up.

Then combine the latest NR with Q3 that would be released about nov 4th (curiously  1 day before NASDAQ delisting decision) where YRCW should have made a net profit over 15M$ and the fact that NASDAQ WILL NOT delist YRCW and will extend a grace period to allow them to complete their RS then you see the huge potential for gains this week.

Be sure to watch the volatility and if YRCW was to close at the high of monday's session get ready for 2-3 more GREAT trading days.

Not far ago their volume was well above 100M shares per day and i expect the same at least for the coming week until YRCW disclose the agreement with teamsters that i think will be excellent. Thos guys know very well that YRCW MUST survive and with all the shares they will get they will be the first to cash in.

So all combined, we have a good company, a good bunch of syndicatd employees and they both wants to succeed in this survival plan. Guess what: they will succeed.

So get ready early monday as it will be a hell of a trading day.

Do not forget my friends at

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/

UPDATE TVI

We are now in a situation where more Market makers will be able to accept bids and ask (complete calls) for TVI.

Normally this results in a higher volume and better prices. Last Friday TVI closed at 0,098 US meaning close to 0,105 CA.

I would not be surprised to see share price going over 0,10 today.

ALERT YRCW

YRCW options were abrnormally high last friday and thursday as the number of call far exceed the number of put. Most of the time this situation indicates a move in share price. Because of high call to put ratio i suspect we could see a very good leg up in share price.

UPDATE on TVI

Another good volume day. It is a bit slower than last couple of days but results are good. Any increase in share price is good...

Interesting to note that i am not the only one that think TVI is a good play:

http://www.benzinga.com/press-releases/10/09/c475062/small-caps-offering-value-investment-idea-of-the-week-tsx-bev-nyse-imn

See for yourself.

UPDATE TVI

I am more a fundamental value investor type and contrarian than a technical one but very interesting to see that TVI has surpased the 13 and 50 days average still sitting on the 200 dma.




If it was ever to get to 0,95 it would have cross it in the green territory.



The coming weeks will be really interesting.

François

do not forget my friends at http://www.mystockbuddy.com/



Have a good day.

UPDATE TVI

Is this the beginning of a new leg up ?

For the past couple of days wolume has increased a lot giving me the impression that hoever was dumping his share is done and that the OTCQX is beginning to create some interest in the USA.

Never the less TVI has moved from 0,075 to 0,09 today on high volume and crossed the 50 DMA.

With the next shipment in sight and copper price at great price, it will be a boost to TVI.

ALERT USA BANKS

Expect a good leg up starting today on all major banks. Just let some time (15-20 minutes) for market to stabilize and then look for some interesting positions on BPOP   WFC   ETFC.

ALERT YRCW

Even if this one is not out of the wood yet (they have to appeal the NASDAQ delisting decision) it is important to note that during the last 30 days 7 analysts upgrade their EBITDA for Q3 and Q4 and 8 did the same for the fiscal year.

This maybe a good sign as only 1 downgraded EBITDA for Q3 and none for Q4 or year end.

Very positive and most of them also increase their earnings per share in the last 30 days.

Be careful and do not forget to take some profit to avoid leaving too much money on the table...

New page

There is a new page UNDER THE RADAR for those who want to know where i could be heading after the next Star Found gives us enough fuel to find another one.

François

do not forget my friends at

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/

AIR Canada is on the fly

Another good jump yesterday and before market opens it seems we may encounter the same thing today.

One very important thing is even if i know this stock is totally under valued, do not forget to take some profit during the run. Nothing is more unpleasant than leaving some money on the table. If you bough at about 1,80 well this is now the time to cash in some of it.

Have a good trading day

François

ps: do not forget my friends at

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/

BALABAG results analysed

Well, as usual this report did exactly what TVI was saying it would do.

It is defining a 50,000 gold ounces. Enough to start up a mill and slowly increase capacity thereafter (500 tons per day at beginning).

I used the word 'defined' until the final 43-101 is completed we should not use the word 'proven' or 'ressources'  because since the Bre-x scandal these words are reserved to whoever does the final 43-101 and they could face lawsuits if they were to declared the 'defined 50,000 gold ounces' as proven ressources..

Some mentionned that results were low but if you look at 2008 Lafleur 43-101 they are very similar in % and the only places where gold % per ton was lower has been in the extensions of the defined area being less important at this time.

I have seen many comparisons between TVI and some others like Medusa mining. Sure Medusa have greater gold % but do not forget that they are not an open pits mining corp and they are drilling near 400 meters in depth and in comparaison TVI is less than 150 meters. This could cause a major difference in results.

So again the future of TVI is great and Balabag will increase the inner value of this company.

As for the share price: who knows. The only sure thing is for the stock to move a lot higher it will need a lot more than 1/10 of 1% of their shares traded in 1 day. (today 527K shares represents about 0,1% of total shares outstandings)

Those days you almost have to convinced investors and market makers one by one and without a doubt they will achieve that goal. They were in Atlanta and New york today speaking to important investors. TVI only need 1 or 2 that will decide to invest some 100,000$ to get the share price moving in the right direction. How long will it take? Well your guess is as good as mine but because of the fact that TVI is totally undervalued it is still one of my best picks for 2010 and whenever the final 43-101 confirm the ressources i will probably already make TVI one of my best picks for 2011.

PS: take time to visit my friends at:

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/

Here is a link to TVI discussion in the USA and you will see that it is getting more and more coverage.

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/forum/showthread.php?p=88985#post88985

Have a great night

François

ALERT YRCW

Lot of activity today and great increase in volume.

Looks like it is establishing a new base around 0,28 and still high resistance at 0,29

Looks very good if it can close over 0,29

ALERT TVI

Balabag report is out.

More analysis to come tonight but it is VERY positive.

Have a great trading day

Market update

Are we out of the wood and out of sideways trading?

If job report coming this friday is great, expect finally a very great leg up in the market in general.

Expect very good leg up from DAN and PXLW as manufacturing results were way over expectations.

As for TVI still awaiting the press release to confirm what we already know. But that is normal whenever you work with lawyers and regulators (they most probably want to be sure of the exact wording used). Since Bre-X scandal it is getting complicated to release news about drilling and especially about gold.

Be patient it will come and i do expect a great but no surprise reports. 50,000 ounces of gold is still a lot of gold.

Happy trading all

The Week ahead

Coming week should not be viewed as a source of great surprises but TVI news release on tuesday or wednesday will be watched a lot. DO NOT EXPECT a lot more than the 50,000 gold ounces as it was a defining drill program because everybody knows the gold is there. Now with that in hand, next steps will detail a lot more what is to come. Remember that they will start a small bootstrap mining that will be increased by itself based upon profit generated. With gold price standing as it is now and cost most probably under 400$ to produce, it does mean over 800$ per ounce of gold as possible profit. PURE extra.

PXLW has taken a beating recently but interestingly many insiders bough more shares. Does that mean they know something we do not know or do they want us to believe something is coming? With the size of this corporation and the style of their products, i think something is coming. Sales based upon their new technology could be higher than tought. Also keep in mind they were profitable only once in 2004. So imagine what a profit could do to their shares.

YRCW: hummm   this one is a pure speculative play but it is worthy. No they are not yet out of the woods and they still have a lot to prove before returning to their real value. As it stands now their value is at about 0,70 to 0,90 with a full value around 1,70$ Q3 should bring in more clues as to where they are going and if their forecast is to be achieved it could well run over the 0,60 rapidly. I do expect an update on the business sometimes in the next 2weeks. Their forecast is EBITDA over Q2 and that would be great. Do not forget to take some profits over 0,45

LVS is still on the run (have you taken some profit recently?) and should be trying again gettin gover some resistance at 31$. Anybody rememebr when i first talked about them early spring last year (at about 3$).
It has been a great runner and the best is yet to come. Still expect this one to close over 40$ this year. MPEL will follow also the same trend and maybe in a greater gain %.

How about american banks? BPOP, WFC and many other are still facing great challenge and it is still the time to accumulate.

DAN: this baby is ready to explode at their first positive quarter (earning wyse). Now see Q3 and Q4 in great shape and expect DAN to gain another 50% before release of Q4 2010.

OCNF is still getting hammered by the lack of economy luster and the fact that ships are rented in advance. But this will stay like it is now. Another great one to accumulate.

Talking about buying on dips: CMFO is antoher very good example. They are in the right direction and this could be easily a 300% stock within a year. I do expect great results form them as they have a great market to expand : China...

For the other one ETFC, GW etc, nothing too exciting at this time in my crystal ball (...) but still good investment overall.

Happy trading all

ALERT TVI

We are getting close to the Balabag release and it could be very interesting. I do not expect TVI to announce more than what they were originally to confirm (50,000 ounces) as this drilling was to define where to drill.

On the other hand market does not seem to estimate too much from that NR. Very surprising because this gold could expand mine life by some years.

So maybe the surprise will come from the market not from TVI.

I think we should get this NR before mid week. My guess would be wednesday.

Will see.

Happy trading

ALERT YRCW

If YRCW can hold on over the 0,26 expect the next leg up to be up to 0,35 by friday next week.

Not sure if it will happen but they should give some updates on their business soon. It that happen and news are a bit over expectations (Q3 EBITDA being more than Q2) then next leg will stop over 0,41

Hae a great day

TVI Pacific from Au to Zinc

The last quarter report did show again another very strong revenues stream and profitability when removing the 1 time event being the repayment of the ‘shark loan’ to be replace in part from a very low interest rate (compared to the previous one).


By analysing TVI we can easily see a very low cost copper producer that has a stream of revenues that will enable them to continue exploration and operation of new mine sites.

TVI still has 3 years of production in the bank (before low % cut off) and are generating enough cash on a quarterly basis to increase mine life significantly.

So what is going on and coming for the last 3 months of the year.

First, Balabag results should start the fun around the end of august (early September) and based upon comments from Mr. James (ceo) stating that they were very very pleased with the preliminary results. As a matter of fact they are still drilling on another vein and I think this could mean a good positive surprise. But remember that TVI never intend to start up themselves a 400,000 Au ounces mine project as it would be too costly and time is not on their side to accomplish that task. If they were to prove that kind of resources, that would be great for share value but would only be accomplish small steps at the time.

They are looking at a bootstrap mine site where cash generated will be reinvested to increase capacity over time. This being said it would still be a very profitable operation and would add up great mine life.

Do not forget also that there are many other opportunities lying in front of them like Tamarok area. I do not expect development right away but prospect out there are really interesting.

So why invest in TVI when shares are moving sideways?

Sure the money invested there could be in a small upward pattern at this time but when you look at the charts you can see that there is a battle between buyers and sellers. Nobody wants to sell at these levels and nobody wants to buy either. I mean nobody because of the number of transactions in any given day. It is very rare that you see a company with so many shares not being traded daily in the million shares range. It is as everything was frozen until something great happen. And, I still think it is coming. Yes there will be some lows and some getting discouraged but I think that the reward is by far greater than the risk. Maybe also Canadian buyers have already picked up their shares and they might find interesting to try grabbing more investors somewhere else in the world. Do not expect financial analyst to come on board at this time to help as the market cap and mine life is still a problem. But get ready if market cap was to be in the 100M$ and a 10-15 mine life remaining.

Look at the cash generated per share, then look at market cap versus real value. Look at the debt ratio, shareholder equity almost positive, a price to book ratio at only 2,62, a P/E ratio at 1,66 and you can easily see that something is wrong with this company share price BUT the value is there.

Many have mentioned confidence toward management: no. Not a good reason because in the market, numbers talk and TVI does have great results.

Some have mentioned mining in the Philippines: no again I do not agree. Nationalizing the mines is not in their interest. Their people are getting far more from private companies than what their government would ever give them if all non-Philippines corporation were to leave.

So where is the exact reason: in my opinion it is a question of company valuation: you have 3 years of mining left that will generate some good money and this is the factor on which it is evaluated. How much money would you invest in a company that has a net projected revenue of about 60M$ over a span of 3 years? Would you invest 45M$ and have a return of 10% per year? Well it would make sense from that point of view and actually I think this is where the market value TVI: a 45M$ corporation that will give a return of 10% per year.

The expectation of getting more copper (and expanding mine life at the same time) and expectations about Balabag are pure expectations where nothing has been confirmed as of today explaining why the premium is almost 0 at this time but when Balabag results do get out in a couple of weeks that will change the scenario.

Your investment calculation will be based upon the same 60M$ over 3 years + any net earnings expected from Balabag. Then from that number do the maths and you will get a fair market evaluation. Anything over proven resources would be the speculator premium over share value.

So for the rest of the year let say we remove zinc from our estimations and keep 2 good copper shipments per quarter. TVI will end up close to 75M$to 80M$ directly in line with original plans from TVI so meaning that they will have again delivered as they planned.

But what will happen next is interesting as Balabag will not get into production mode until probably Q3-Q4 2011 and even at the time they will need some commissioning move real production to Q1 2012. At that time, they will be left with 1 year and 4 months of copper production at the actual Canatuan mine.

So here is what I suspect for the coming 6-12 months

1) They will find the right way to extract zinc from copper if there is a way to do that properly. May not be before year end but remember that this VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphite deposit) is not easy. You have to apply the perfect recipe not to lose copper but only remove infamous zinc. But by doing so you win on the 2 sides of the story: you get $ for the zinc and you increase your copper % (and at the price copper now standing it does make a great difference). But each time to try it out you have to stop and start the actual circuit. (explaining why 6 weeks shipments and not 4 as in the past)

2) They will still ship every 6 weeks and at actual copper price their revenues will be as expected

3) Balabag will confirm a minimum of 50,000 ounces and other steps needed to start mining and gold producing will follow. I think the total process and mine production could happen within a year.

4) Other Canatuan prospection will continue and some interesting sites will be announced as there are no reasons why the actual Canatuan could be the only site where copper exist in % enough to be profitable.

5) EBITDA will continue to improve

6) Interest expenses will drop dramatically due to repayment of the loan

7) No more charges related to debt repayment

8) Other join venture will be explored with major partners



Now let see some ratios and numbers compared to last year



6 months ending June 30th 010



                                                                     2010                               2009                     Diff

1) Revenues                                                  42,4M$                         18,2M$                  133%

2) Exploration cost                                          2,4M$                           0,2M$                1200%

3) Net income                                                  7,2M$                         (1,3M$)

4) Total Liabilities                                           17,5M$                       34,7$M$                  (50%)

4A) Long term debt                                          2,7M$                         19,5M$                  (80%)

5) Due to related Parties                                   0,1M$                           1,2M$                  (90%)

6) Accumulated deficit                                      6,5M$                          32,4M$                 (75%)

7) Net income per share                                     0,013                           (0,003)

8) Cash on hand                                                 6,1M$                          5,1M$                   20%

9) Administrative cost                                         3,8M$                          3,8M$

10) EBITDA                                                     21,7M$                         4,7M$                 400%

11) EBITDA as % of revenues                             51 %                              24%                  110%



1) Revenues are on the rise when compared against last year. Naturally shipments did not begin in January as it did in 2010. But even by adding 3 shipments for Jan, Feb and March 2009, the first 6 months of 2010 are well over mostly due to copper prices rising.

2) This number just proves that TVI is not sitting on their cash and are advancing at a fast pace to increase overall mine life.

3) This number speaks by itself. What a difference 1 year can make.

4) Overall liabilities does include short and long term debts even accounts payable considered as current and very short term

4A) the long term debt has been eliminated totally. The 2,7M$ comes only from pension fund and asset retirement. The last one is at 2M$ and is eliminated as an amortization expense and not cash related. As for the bank loan it is repaid every time a shipment is received and another loan is made after with only the take-off agreement.

5) Very interesting to note also that all related parties transactions have been reimburse except for the current portion that I think is payable on a quarterly basis and must be accrued in the financial statements. Remark also that shares issued to reimburse loans made by company officer were issued as they had no other choices. From the shark loan agreement I would assume that they were banned to make any kind of cash payment.

6) Look at this one. WOW they have made a tremendous effort to maximise net earnings (it is the only way to be on the positive sign). Also please note that a new ratio will be in place whenever they become deficit free. It is called shareholder equity! This is a great ratio for establishing a share price.

7) Very very good for a development mining company that generate their own needed cash flow to expand. Normally used as a great ration to establish share price. In mining it is normally between 12 and 20.

8) The cash on hand is extremely high. Remember that they repay completely the shark loan and replace with bank margins at very low interest rate. There is somebody there that knows their maths…

9) Administration costs have been reduced a bit showing a good control over management expenses and salaries. If somebody was to become greedy for salary, stock compensation, trips etc. It would have shown right there.

10) EBITDA is a non GAAP measure but used my mostly all corporations around the world as it gives a good picture of gross profit and not final results that very often include amortization and depreciation that does not involves cash. Although it is not a perfect ratio it is consider a great indicator about business health and when used quarter over quarter does reflects the real growth of the company.

11) This is how I view business: do they make profit and are they better than they were. Do cost growth faster than revenues? Does administration becomes sharks and think about them first? As you can see, this business is totally exploding on the positive side.



When you look at all these figures it is easy to understand why TVI is still one of my favourite picks. Will it takes 3 months, 6months or a year? This I do not know. But based upon their past results and their actual performance, they will definitely increase mine life to a greater extend and this within the next 12 months.

My final thoughts about share price.

Tvi is totally disconnected form their real value. It is very rare that you will find a company valued at about their yearly cash generation AND ½ of their annual gross earnings as their market caps.

Only based upon their gross earning they should be trading NOW at about 0,16 (which is TWICE than there actual value) then add the cash value 0,01 means that it is almost incredible to be able to buy TVI under 0,17.

Sure the remaining mine life is killing them at this moment and this is great for investors because unless they face 0 gold discovery in Balabag, 0 Canatuan extension this company share value and share price will be multiplied by 10-20 within 24 months. What is also so great is the ratio risk reward: risk is 0,08 per share and reward is 0,80-1,60$ So whenever you see a company that is profitable and this ratio is 10-20 times the possible loss GO. It’s a buy


Have  a great week