ALERT UWN

UWN has been approved for a gaming license in Nevada.

This is the 2nd license given to UWN this week and this will surely lead to new acquisitions or contracts and at the same time enhance company value.

ALERT INT

Another strategic alliance for INT where more and more potential customers will be in touch with Ortsbo.

By the way, have you look recently at ranking for Ortsbo in the world:

WOW !

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ortsbo.com

ALERT TVI

TVI has just released that they have applied for an MPSA in the area of Malusok and SE Malusok.

By getting the permit, TVI will be able to explore the area situated very close to actual Canatuan mining property.

Without a doubt, this could be a significant news to expand mine life at Canatuan.

It will also be very interesting to look at Q4 results as to wheter TVI  continued to add ore from outside the original resources area mentionned in the 43-101 as they had in Q3. Remember than in Q3, only 1/3 of ore processed was coming from proven ressources and by doing so, mine life was extended.

More to come  

UPDATE BPOP

BPOP has reported today their latest quarter results and even if net profit was a bit low, the trend is indicating that lending is on the rise and that loan quality is going higher also.

Very good indicators for the near future

Remember also that is not always a good thing to chase after a share on the rise (momentum trading). Sometimes it is worthty but most of the time you end up losing.

Be careful and i would wait for a down tip to buy some more. Future does look very very good for BPOP

UPDATE INT

We have seen today good price movement establishing a new base (unless something major happen) and this base is fixed at about 0,60.

Is that price correct? Well if we take into consideration that INT is actually worth 32M$ and that Ortsbo should bring in around 140M$ INT is today trading at book value.

There is still place for a good upward movement but i suspect we will need another good NR to move north of 0,75 as resistance seems to be really high.

Let's see tomorrow how it unfold.

UPDATE INT

We have seen today some churn in INT shares right after it hit 0,65$. I would tend to say that it was a regular situation where we do not have yet all the details and that on friday many were able to buy at 0,455 giving them close to 50% profit in only 1 day (or even less).

For most traders, it is normal and correct to take some off the table when situation arise where you made so much profit in so less time.

The value of INT does not make any doubt at this point and we could expect a release of all details pretty soon and at the actual price it would be very surprising that a downtrend will follow the next release.

Will the share rise tomorrow??? Good question and it will depend upon the number of buyers compare to the number of sellers.

Will it be exciting: yes it will be again but if you took your profit today, enjoy the ride ! 

UPDATE INT

Is INT (CVE) recent share price movement sustainable?

This is a very interesting question. INT has been on my top pick list for 2012 for some time now (November 2011)as they seem to have created a very interesting product called Ortsbo capable of translating instantly in 53 different languages.

That by itself is very interesting and even if the quality of this product is not 100% on the translation side, I must agree it is very good and well designed.

I was watching their latest presentation in all those languages simultaneously and it was really good. Even the plug in for Outlook is doing good.  

But IS there a demand for this kind of product?

Based upon the incredible high number of unique users (that is on a rapid rise every month) it would suggest that indeed there is a great demand for it.

Now, the challenge that Intertainment Media is facing is how to make great revenues from this unique product AND that takes time.

Last Friday (January 20^th 2012) the sudden share price rise was in fact driven by an update from INT stating that the spinoff of Ortsbo was imminent and that actual shareholders would get a 30% of pre-money that Ortsbo would attract and paid a share dividend from the new company created.  That was enough to see an increase of 29% in about 3 hours.

Last year at the end of march 2011, it took about 2 weeks to see share price climb from a bit over 40 cents to a whopping 3,35$.

Unfortunately many investors lost their shirt as the share price went down to 0,28 cents  early October 2011.

Are we at the beginning of a new leg up where this time INT will climb to a 4 or 5$ share? Think about that: if INT would climb to 5$, it would mean that INT is valued at roughly 1,4 billion $. Is that reasonable? We must not forget also that they have roughly 47M warrants and 15M options for a possible total of 327M shares issued if all warrants and options are exercised and would now place INT value at 1,6B dollars. Based on the fact that actually the social media hype allows a multiple of close to 100 times the revenue estimated for evaluation purpose, INT will have to generate 16M$ in yearly revenues if we want to take for granted that 1,6B$ is a possibility. IS THIS POSSIBLE?

Last quarter they generated 1,3M$ in gross revenues and it is only the beginning.  

They have 21M$ in cash on hand and are burning a little over 3M$ per quarter. So they should be ok for the next year and could even add up some more buyout of interesting technology.

They actually control many divisions and the most interesting one is what they call ‘The new Media’ division mainly consisting of:  Ortsbo, Ad Taffy, Deal Frenzy, itiBiti and Commobility.

There is a lot of very good info in the MD&A posted on Sedar end of December that I will not replicate here but here is the address:

http://sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=FR&docClass=7&issuerNo=00015693&fileName=/csfsprod/data125/filings/01844214/00000001/i%3A%5CSedar%5CIntertainmentMediaInc%5C2011Financials%5C122311MDA.pdf

Over all, I think that INT has a great future especially if they retain a good chunk of Orstbo. With all those acquisitions they made recently it would not be impossible to see major advertisers come on board. As an example, how much money would a company like Mcdonalds invest in a pop-up add that would appear on every user of Ortsbo offering a free coffee? At the same time users could get the direction to the next McDo restaurant in their OWN LANGUAGE, anywhere in the world at the same time?

The possibilities are endless and only limited by management imagination.

Can they achieve 16M yearly in revenues?  Yes they can

Can they achieve it this year? No I do not think so

Do they have the right management? Yes they seem to be really dedicated to INT success.

Do they have the right customer base? Yes and increasing by the minute

Do they have enough money to continue expansion and creativity? Yes they do

Do they have competitors? Yes they have but none as integrated as they are

Is this the right timing for a spin off? Yes as long as they keep control over Ortsbo

What is the value of INT shares: If revenues stays on the same track as they are, they could end up this year with revenues of  (for the 2012 quarters )  1,5M$, 1,8M$, 2,2M$ and finally 2,7M$ for a 8,2M in 2012 revenues. Based on that figure and a 100 time revenues INT could be valued at around 820M$ at the end of 2012 for a 2,51$ per share price when fully diluted.

This value is based only on what has been disclosed as of December 2011 and does not take into account the intellectual value of INT, trademarks etc.

 Is INT at 0,60 cents a good investment? WOW sure it is. If you like a bit the roller coaster associated with speculation combined with some great value you are in for a heck of a ride and for the dreamer in you, what would happen if Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Facebook and those really involved in this social media market were deciding to acquire INT. It could be the biggest share price war since a very long time with results only dreamers have in the back of their mind. But even if it was to break 2,50$ it would still be over a 400% gain.

How about that!!!

Disclosure: I am long on INT. As usual never invest more money than you can afford to lose and always discuss with your financial advisor before investing to be certain the investment is suitable for you.

ALERT INT

After reviewing today's release, it seems more than likely that Ortsbo is almost ready to be spinned off INT with a dividend now sitting at 30% of money received for it and paid in shares of the new company.

What does that mean? We could see a major price hike on monday followed by a large profit taken either end of day monday or early tuesday.

You judge by yourself and there is never anything bad to pocket some profit made. The best is always to get free shares and let the rest goes 'on the house'

In any case, be careful and get ready for an exicting beginning of the week. If you are not yet in INT, i would wait to see how market goes early next week. It is most of the time a bad idea to chase a share only based on momentum.

ALERT DRL

Have you seen Q4 results for DRL ???

Fantastic compared to Q3 and last year. Finally some great profit.

Expect a great leg up from tomorrow for a 4-5 days.

Alert UUU

Very good increase in sales and production reported today. Expect start of a nice leg up

ALERT CTL

With their new refinancement plan and due to the fact that dilution will be so enourmous, CTL is no longer a speculative move.

On the other hand, if shares drop to the 0,005 tomorrow and you still believe that on the longer term that move will be positive, it could be a good time to pick up some (100,000 shares will cost 500$ at 0,005) and if shares goes higher, it could be the time to take some profit.

ALERT TVI

TVI has won an injunction against the open pit mining ban.

See the complete release here.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tvi-pacific-inc-wins-injunction-against-ordinance-that-would-ban-new-open-pit-mining-2012-01-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Hope you did bought some more at 0,035 or 0,04 as it could very well be the beginning of a good leg up for TVI. Remember that Balabag is also coming soon.

ALERT TVI

TVI has just completed his 2nd zinc shipment of the year valued 4,7M$.

So TVI is now getting very close to a 100M$ revenues company and we should hear soon about Balabag feasability study.

Remember that the project is now safe from any ban on open pit mining as per provincial legislation.

I think 2012 will rock this one up

ALERT LVS

LVS has been advised that the investigation has been concluded and that no further action will be taken against the Company at this time in Honk Kong. Still more investigations are underway but this is great news.

Complete story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577106401261860634.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

ALERT CTL

Based upon today's new in regard of interest payment being deferred, it is preferable to hold on to your position.

If you bought recently, your average cost would be in the 0,05 to 0,06 and the possibilities are still very high for a default or a bankruptcy procedures. Therefore, i would use any rally to sell some shares to try to obtain a close to 0 average cost (the free shares concept) and hold to them until final resolution.

But with the actual pulp and paper problems all around the globe, the chances that CTL would get some kind of re-financement without wiping all actual shareholder value, is very very low.

CTL is now a highly risky speculative buy and for the coming weeks it will be into the hands of speculators.

You can play the game but be extremely cautious. Odds are not in CTL favor (or shareholder favor).

As of today, Canadian dollar has lost about 10% sinc July, demand has been stabilizing somewhat and this quarter should have been at least break-even. So what happen? They had about 18M$ in cash and close to 108M$ in credit line available. What else do they know that we do not at this time? How went the first 2 months of Q4 ? Are they really that bad? What is 2012 outlook ?


I will ask and try to obtain answers.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.

ALERT UWN

UWN (Nevada Gold & Casinos ) will published their 2nd quarter for 2012 next week on the 15th and this could really well be the beginning of a quarterly net profit era.

Based upons results from Q1 2012 and last year Q2 results, the following items should reflects improvement

- interest expenses should have decreased based upon new loan agreement with Wells Fargo
- Total revenues should have increase because of the first complete quarter of Red Dragon

So, even if gross revenues from other properties were to stay flat compare to last year, overall revenues should have increased by a 5-10%, interest expenses should have decrease significantly and adjusted EBITDA should be in the 800K$ to 950K$ range and net profit in the 0,01 to 0,02 cent per share .

Then if you calculate the actual net value per share, even by removing completely the good will value, UWN is still valued at 14M$ with on hand cash (including restricted cash) over 7,5M$ for a 1,03$ value per share and a 2,26$ value per share if we include the good will value.

I still believe that we could be in for results that would beat my expectations and therefore providing a good share value increase. Do not forget also that the slot machine run deal that will close in Q3 2012 will add great profit and if Washington was to allow slot machines in their state in a near future, UWN could be set to sky rocket rapidly as they would be well positionned to be licensed for a 1250 machine and a 85M$ in revenues increase (based upon their last presentation). Now imagine how the net profit would look like ! UWN share value increase that would arise from a decision like this one could be similar to the one experimented by MPEL due to revenues increase in Macau.

As usual never invest more than you can afford to lose.  

ALERT TVI

Very good news this morning in regard of Balabag project as it will not suffer from the same problems as Canatuan with tentative bans from local due to a provincial resolution that Bayog cannot prohibit legitimate mining firms to excercise their rights over mining sites.

This is most probably the best new to hit TVI since many months.

To get the complete story, here is the link:

http://interaksyon.tv/article/19073/zambo-del-sur-govt-invalidates-order-banning-open-pit-mining-in-bayog-town

Also all other very interesting news are available on TVI official web site under ORDINANCE.

Still do not forget to visit my friends at:

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT INT

Some time ago  CVE:INT was added into my top speculative move and today, INT will be added to my top pick list for 2012.

The reasonning behind that is the fact that their product (namely Ortsbo) has had an customer based increase absolutely phenomenal and that the management team is now focused to provide a complete solution in the entertainment sector.

With all the moves that were done recently, it would be very surprising that revenues would not follow.

If INT was to achieve an EPS of only 0,01 or 0,02, with the actual evaluation of social medias like Facebook being at about 50 times earning, it is easy to believe that INT would be easily north of 1,75 rapidly.

Naturally at this stage of their growth it is still largely speculative but customer interest is there, investor interest is there and product/value is there.

If management continue to do what they had in the past, well there is absolutely no reason why INT could not be a 400% winner in 2012.

This is why INT is now one of my pick for 2012.

Naturally do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always always take some profit when price indicate that.

TVI UPDATE

TVI completed another shipment today for another 12M$ in revenues. Great Job.

Now here is my update in regards of Q3 2011

Q3 results were surprising to say the least.

I was very surprise by the sudden decrease in production cost. From 1,65$ to 1,33$ was a major improvement (roughly 20%)  in 1 quarter.

Naturally that improvement trend is not sustainable and I think that cost will remain at about 1,33$ for the next 1 or 2 quarters .

The great cost improvement was essentially the major factor allowing TVI to achieve 3M$ in profit during Q3. If they can ship copper and zinc on time, TVI could again show a good profit in Q4  (before oil asset write off).

But the biggest factor that strokes me was the fact that mine life was decreased only by .1 during the quarter due to the blend with mineral that was not include in the original ore reserves. If that trend was to continue, it could easily expand Canatuan mine life by a couple of years and this would be fantastic.

Look also at gold and silver produced as the grades were quite high and the best of the year.

The overall shareholder equity has increased by almost 10M$  compared to December 2010 and accumulated deficit is now standing at only 1,4M$. This is a very good indicator of TVI’s financial health at this moment.

In regard to the cash on hand, 23M$ is a huge pile of money and even if all low interest short term loans were to be repaid, they would still be left with money in the bank.

What it is telling me is that the cash flow generated by Canatuan is enough to finance Balabag bootstrap without additional long term loan at high cost.

We should not also underestimate Malasok and SE Malasok as they could encounter significant reserves there also. It would be very surprising that Canatuan would be the only part of the area having enough mineral to be a profitable mining site.

TVI also mentioned that they were still pursuing other possibilities and they now have the money needed to go ahead with some other major mining companies out there. It would be purely speculative at this time to name them or try to identify the projects but looking at all the different and recent press releases there is at least one interesting project where TVI could be associated with.

In regard to Canatuan, we all know what happen with the provincial government and that a ban was established to take effect in November 2012. TVI has mentioned that they will take all possible legal actions against that illegal ban and I think they have a good chance to win their case and if otherwise, I think that Balabag will already be in operation at that time avoiding some months without any revenues.

Also interesting to note is that TVI is for the second quarter in a row a 100M$ company and this is absolutely not reflecting in the share value. Again major price disconnect between share value and share price and still a lack of interest from the buyers as volume is unbelievably low.

TVI sold Alaska right after the quarter for a price almost double of what was paid for Alaska, Niger and Philippine properties when you include all the credits they also received. Naturally some write off will have to take place but it is not affecting cash position being only book value for properties that have been sold. The high interest loan was also repaid in full. (LIM loan)

Now, for Balabag, it is clear that the 43-101 is late and has been pushed many times. But is this something that they absolutely needs? For the investors’ confidence it is a yes but because they do not need any financing to develop Balabag, it is not the most important thing at this time. Based upon remarks and financial statements page 20,  (item 15) it is clearly stated that Balabag expenses have started to be capitalized. I think the message right there is very clear: Balabag will be a mine!

So what are the different scenarios for 2012:

BEST: Ban on Canatuan is lifted and TVI is able to increase mine life to about 3 years with ore not coming from indicated resources. Canatuan should be able to generate another 10M$ in net profit per year and a 100M$ gross revenues. Then Balabag should be in production near year-end 2012 adding up a 5-10M$ in revenue (maybe a 5000 ounces in Q4 2012).

WORST: The ban is not lifted and Canatuan must cease operations end of 2012. TVI will still had pocketed 7-8M$ in net profit and 80M$ in gross revenues. Q4 would be a bit difficult with only 1 shipment from Canatuan before closure and minor revenues from Balabag.

If we add up all the other possibilities from JV, new prospects, Tamarok, Malasok etc, it would be very surprising that TVI would not be able to succeed in 2012. It is third world mining and we never know exactly what could happen (or we would be all very rich persons) but I still think that TVI has a great chance of success over there as they already prove with their Canatuan operations and no matter what will happen in Canatuan, TVI will still be a profitable mining company and results from Balabag by itself will be a lot more valuable than the actual value affixed to TVI. Producing gold in the Philippines has nothing to do with operations in North America. Cost to produce gold is very low and ore reserves are there. I do not see any reason for TVI to fail at that project. Remember that TVI has a lot of experience in producing gold (referring to Gossan mines from 2004-2008)

In conclusion I think that TVI is still a good buy, Q4 could be another solid quarter (before 1 time event) and future is bright.

PS: DO not forget to visit my friends at :

www.mystockbuddy.com

ALERT CTL

CTL (tsx) has been added to my top pick speculative plays.

They have announced today a major 200M$ loss BUT at the same time their quarter is a lot better than Q2. With a bit of luck they could have ended up break even.

Q4 is normally a strong quarter for CTL and i am now wondering what was the real reason to write off their mill COMPLETELY on Q3 instead of Q4??? (as normally companies would do to clera the numbers for the coming year)

Their results altough not totally impressive, were in the right direction and unless they totally miss their Q4, they should come out with a small profit in Q4.

This is their last presentation and it is absolutely interesting (in regards of the facts)

http://www.catalystpaper.com/sites/default/files/2011-11-14earnings-prest_0.pdf

Time will tell but at this level (0,075) i am a buyer. Risk is very low and possibilities are great: take over, profit margin increases etc. You can probably mention 10 more.

I was a buyer at 0,25, was still at 0,15 and now at this bargain price i will definitely reduce my average cost a lot.

As usual do not invest more than you can afford to lose and always do your own DD before investing