' ''' ''' '' '' '' ' ' ' '

lundi 1 octobre 2012

Play Of the DAY: 1st day of new quarter. Where do we go from here?

Well, it has been a great September and this is the first day of trading in the last quarter of the year.

What should we expect?

I think we will now have to face the reality: corporate profit in manufacturing will have increased slower than originally thought. My actual feeling is that transport sector should be leading the way as of now but it is still not. So caution is need in those 2 sectors

With elections coming, the infamous fiscall cliff still not fixed and Europe creating a roller coaster of stock market emotions, this quarter could be very rocky and bumpy to say the least.

At least one sector is still showing great signs of improvement: the construction sector. More and more houses are build and now they are looking for new land and sign of these times, their price has increased. But if job creation was to stall, this could be the first sector to retreat and lose some of it's steam.

BUT: there is still a fantastic sector that will do very well and it is minings where great operating companies will continue to do well and with metal prices increasing, they will do even better.

And in the same dierection, the JUNIOR exploration companies will perform excessively good as their resources will be valued higher and higher. There were some articles this week-end projecting silver to raise over 50$. Imagine the reaction on the actual producers as their expenses will not increase that much but their gross revenues would skyrocket.

So as of today, my plan is simple. I am overweight in housing until some bad job reports comes in. But as long as job creation will be as is it (about 100K per month) i expect construction sector to perform very well. The last week drop was mainly a profit taking opportunity and it is ready to rebound now.

I will also be overweight in the metal producers and some junior exploration companies for the mentionned reasons above.

Here are my companies for the beginning of this 4th quarter:

Metal producer:     GPR/GPL   Great panther has a great return on investment and would benefit a lot from a silver base price increase. That company is one of the great one on the market and at a very cheap price.

Metal exploration:   GSR   ORT   GCU as they are doing a lot of exploration and first essays results are simply incredible more expecially GSR actually.

Mining speculative:   WPX  and EPO. Potash is a needed one and if one of these 2 was to sign a JV agreement, watch out for share price to sky rocket.

Housing: My usual suspects are BZH   HOV   KBH. With those 3 you are covering US west, central and East.

Enjoy your quarter.

As usual  DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE and always do your own due diligence before investing in any stock. CHEAP SHARE PRICE does not necessary mean a real bargain. Play with caution.

Get THE PLAY OF THE DAY on Twitter : @investman2

Aucun commentaire:

Publier un commentaire