With all that has happened in the stock market for the past 3 months, it is time to review my positions about my top picks.
1) TVI is still one of my top picks for this year. They are totally undervalued as their share price is about 1,5 time their net income per share. For a mining company i would expect nothing under 14 as a good multiplier. So shares hould trade at about ,91.
2)PXLW as not been profitable except in 2004 but has been beaten again as they are in the tech sector. Use caution but expect a great Q3 as this is normally their best. If they miss, they will pay dearly. SO when ready take some profit. Usually enough to get your investment back and balance is on the house...
3) DAN What else can be said. Already a winner this year (being flat for the year to date is a winner...in the industrial sector) but Q3 and Q4 will make the difference. I expect 14$ end of dec. Again whenever possible take your profit. We never know who the next car recall will involve
4) LVS: WOW what a run this year. Dec 31st 2009 share price 14,94$. It is already a 2 bagger and year is not over. 1B$ being repaid and term extended on their loands + great increase in traffic in Macau. Take some profit but do not get caught in selling too fast.
5) ETFC will be a long term. The reverse split killed them (as everybody else doing a non necessary reverse split) but will be back on track.
6) OCNF Another stupid RS that destroy almost 40% of their value. But ships are still rented at a great % but be a little more patient as those ships are rent long time in advance for more than 1 month at the time (except for 2 ships being rented on a as needed basis)
7)BPOP If Paulson is buying 35 M shares, you could also buy some. At the actual price it is a bargain. Sure Puerto Rico is not an easy banking place but will get over their problems. This one will fly without warning.
8)MPEL This one will move behing LVS and use the Macau momentum to increase it's value.
9)AC.B Still not flying as high as expected but since march it is flat and ready to go higher.
10) GW Still flat since introduced on may 25th but great future
11) CMFO Do you belive in chineese market? This one is probably my best pick for 2011. As of now i would expect it to increase by 50% before year end.
PLAY OF THE YEAR = YRCW if you like adrenaline this one is for you. Risk reward of 10 to 1. No reason (unless they totally fail) not to reach back the 1,60$ this year. Also take your profit everytime there is an opportunity.
Have a great night
mercredi 18 août 2010
mardi 17 août 2010
TVI update
Market did not react properly to TVI last press release as many used the fact that zinc was not produced at rate and % expected. So they dumped their shares. Oh by the way 2M shares where traded that day: meaning 0,5%. WOW. If this is a dumping where are the others... In the case of TVI a dumping would mean close to 40M shares. You want to talk about a dumping: YRCW went down to 0,10 with 230M shares traded in 1 day being 23% of the total shares outstanding. That is a dumping. But 2M shares: come on let's get serious. It was only some frustrated or unhappy (even day traders) who sold their shares.
Now who in the world would have imagine TVI to become a Zinc mine???
A zinc mine: are you crazy? why would they sacrifice copper % at over 3,25$ to get some coins for zinc at less than 1$ .
Zinc was supposed to add some $$$ to their bottom line and nothing is over. They simply do not have the exact recipe to extract zinc properly without sacrificing copper.
Remove the one time event of repaying the debt and you are still left with close to 5M$ in profit for the quarter. mind you, it is a lot better than Q2 2009 if you remember.
This is another great buy opportunity and full report will be published this week after i have time to read between the lines and analyse completely Q2 and Management discussion. But just as an appetizer, total debts have come down from 34M $ at dec 2009 to less than 18M$. Isnt that close to 50% total debt reduction???
Do not expect me to jump the gun at them: TVI is doing what they said they would do, they produced whatever they say will be produced and as far as i know the only glitch is the zinc circuit not operating as they want.
Again DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN WHAT CAN LOOSE but TVI is a great opportunity with over 3 years mine life, balabag results coming (mind you they are still drilling out there...do you think they would be doing that if no gold had been found yet???)
Have some great trading
François
Now who in the world would have imagine TVI to become a Zinc mine???
A zinc mine: are you crazy? why would they sacrifice copper % at over 3,25$ to get some coins for zinc at less than 1$ .
Zinc was supposed to add some $$$ to their bottom line and nothing is over. They simply do not have the exact recipe to extract zinc properly without sacrificing copper.
Remove the one time event of repaying the debt and you are still left with close to 5M$ in profit for the quarter. mind you, it is a lot better than Q2 2009 if you remember.
This is another great buy opportunity and full report will be published this week after i have time to read between the lines and analyse completely Q2 and Management discussion. But just as an appetizer, total debts have come down from 34M $ at dec 2009 to less than 18M$. Isnt that close to 50% total debt reduction???
Do not expect me to jump the gun at them: TVI is doing what they said they would do, they produced whatever they say will be produced and as far as i know the only glitch is the zinc circuit not operating as they want.
Again DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN WHAT CAN LOOSE but TVI is a great opportunity with over 3 years mine life, balabag results coming (mind you they are still drilling out there...do you think they would be doing that if no gold had been found yet???)
Have some great trading
François
UPDATE on YRCW
Are you ready for a 500% return???
Well, if you have the nerves and some hundreds of dollars from other gains, this could very well be the play of the Q3 and Q4.
Their business is improving, there are still a lot of shorts to cover their positions and unless sky's fall, they will be able to beat expectations again in Q3 and Q4.
If they ever were to be positive in any of these 2 quarters, it will go over 1$ without a problem. Only shadow still looming out is a reverse split that would damage their sahre price for some months as actually a good chunk of profit is made thanks to day traders.
But overall, with 1 Billion shares if you want to have great fun watchingm this one's for you AS LONG AS YOU KEEP YOUR INVESTMENT MODEST into that stock. Remember it is purely speculative and could change direction very rapidly.
If you have some doubts think about MBHI that went from 0,20 to 1,35 in 3 days then guess what: they are closed...
Have some good trading
François
Well, if you have the nerves and some hundreds of dollars from other gains, this could very well be the play of the Q3 and Q4.
Their business is improving, there are still a lot of shorts to cover their positions and unless sky's fall, they will be able to beat expectations again in Q3 and Q4.
If they ever were to be positive in any of these 2 quarters, it will go over 1$ without a problem. Only shadow still looming out is a reverse split that would damage their sahre price for some months as actually a good chunk of profit is made thanks to day traders.
But overall, with 1 Billion shares if you want to have great fun watchingm this one's for you AS LONG AS YOU KEEP YOUR INVESTMENT MODEST into that stock. Remember it is purely speculative and could change direction very rapidly.
If you have some doubts think about MBHI that went from 0,20 to 1,35 in 3 days then guess what: they are closed...
Have some good trading
François
Market Update
Well, is this one for real or another no direction move???
With manufacturerès data and small housing increase (an increase is an increase) i wld not be surprise to see the market continue rallying this week and some profit taken by week-end.
But overall most of my to picks have continued their march toward great profit.
Get ready for a very great fall season. If estimates continues to get increases, well my top 10 picks for this year will be in line to return well above 300%.
Stay tune for an update by company end of this month.
With manufacturerès data and small housing increase (an increase is an increase) i wld not be surprise to see the market continue rallying this week and some profit taken by week-end.
But overall most of my to picks have continued their march toward great profit.
Get ready for a very great fall season. If estimates continues to get increases, well my top 10 picks for this year will be in line to return well above 300%.
Stay tune for an update by company end of this month.
dimanche 15 août 2010
UPDATE on TVI
Here is an important update that was posted on Facebook and i think it is crucial to be fully understand.
Last quarter tvi had a EBITDA of close to 5M$ and when the 1 time event repayment and depreciation of the loan expenses is taken into account it is only a 0,002 cent per share.
So this is another great quarter. They are still working on the zinc circuit as it is a very complex ore body that they have to work with. It has to be tested then circuit stopped to do the change than tested and so on until final recipe produce the results expected.
Also please note that % of copper goes along with that. If you cannot remove correctly the zinc from the ore, then you % of copper is less important.
So be sure to watch for complete review mid next week and expect the blog to get back to regular updates as summer is near the end and it's time to have fun again!
Here is the update from tvi facebook:
It is important for us to try our best to offer clear, easy to understand information on our business. In line with that practice, we would like to offer this update to our zinc circuit commissioning process.
When we changed the shipping schedule from every 4 weeks to around every 6 weeks it was because, in addition to possible concentrate shipping delays, we expected there would be interruptions in production while we commissioned the zinc circuit. Much like the copper circuit commissioning process, we expected the zinc circuit commissioning to take several months, perhaps longer. This is normal for all mines that commission circuits of any kind. Commissioning circuits for “complex” VMS ore – which is what we are dealing with at Canatuan, can take even longer, in some cases much longer. For reference, the copper circuit commissioning started in mid November of 2008 and wasn’t completed until May 2009 – six months. During the commissioning process there are plant starts and stops, and for varying periods the circuit is suspended while plant and process ‘tweaking’ is carried out. The objective is to continuously make changes until the largest volume of concentrate is produced with the highest grade and with the best metal recovery, taking into consideration a number of factors.
Long before we started the commissioning process on April 30, extensive metallurgical testing of the Canatuan ores was conducted by reputable third parties and a ‘recipe’ involving combinations of reagents and plant configurations for the process flow sheet was decided. It was this initial process flow sheet that was tested in the initial commissioning process. In the early stages of the zinc circuit commissioning in May, it was found that acceptable copper/zinc separation was not being achieved using the ‘recipe’ we had initially chosen. As a result, additional metallurgical testing has been carried out to determine a better ‘recipe’ for the process flow sheet. Based on the additional test results we have been continually making plant process flow sheet adjustments - which is part of the normal commissioning process, while at the same time continuing and optimizing daily copper concentrate production. This has involved plant starts and stops. We believe we are in the final stages of the testing and expect to implement a revised process flow sheet soon which we hope will be successful. Having said that, we fully expect that commissioning of this revised flow sheet will continue until we achieve the results we are looking for from both the copper and the zinc circuits in the plant.
So, commissioning is a process that takes time and involves testing a number of variables until acceptable, optimum results are achieved. We feel it would be unusual for us to report every step of the commissioning process along the way.
Because of the commissioning process (which involves as mentioned in the report, periodic interruptions with the mill) we could not resume shipping every 4 weeks. We expected (and continue to expect) that with successful separation of the zinc from the copper, the copper concentrate will have a higher grade.
Last quarter tvi had a EBITDA of close to 5M$ and when the 1 time event repayment and depreciation of the loan expenses is taken into account it is only a 0,002 cent per share.
So this is another great quarter. They are still working on the zinc circuit as it is a very complex ore body that they have to work with. It has to be tested then circuit stopped to do the change than tested and so on until final recipe produce the results expected.
Also please note that % of copper goes along with that. If you cannot remove correctly the zinc from the ore, then you % of copper is less important.
So be sure to watch for complete review mid next week and expect the blog to get back to regular updates as summer is near the end and it's time to have fun again!
Here is the update from tvi facebook:
It is important for us to try our best to offer clear, easy to understand information on our business. In line with that practice, we would like to offer this update to our zinc circuit commissioning process.
When we changed the shipping schedule from every 4 weeks to around every 6 weeks it was because, in addition to possible concentrate shipping delays, we expected there would be interruptions in production while we commissioned the zinc circuit. Much like the copper circuit commissioning process, we expected the zinc circuit commissioning to take several months, perhaps longer. This is normal for all mines that commission circuits of any kind. Commissioning circuits for “complex” VMS ore – which is what we are dealing with at Canatuan, can take even longer, in some cases much longer. For reference, the copper circuit commissioning started in mid November of 2008 and wasn’t completed until May 2009 – six months. During the commissioning process there are plant starts and stops, and for varying periods the circuit is suspended while plant and process ‘tweaking’ is carried out. The objective is to continuously make changes until the largest volume of concentrate is produced with the highest grade and with the best metal recovery, taking into consideration a number of factors.
Long before we started the commissioning process on April 30, extensive metallurgical testing of the Canatuan ores was conducted by reputable third parties and a ‘recipe’ involving combinations of reagents and plant configurations for the process flow sheet was decided. It was this initial process flow sheet that was tested in the initial commissioning process. In the early stages of the zinc circuit commissioning in May, it was found that acceptable copper/zinc separation was not being achieved using the ‘recipe’ we had initially chosen. As a result, additional metallurgical testing has been carried out to determine a better ‘recipe’ for the process flow sheet. Based on the additional test results we have been continually making plant process flow sheet adjustments - which is part of the normal commissioning process, while at the same time continuing and optimizing daily copper concentrate production. This has involved plant starts and stops. We believe we are in the final stages of the testing and expect to implement a revised process flow sheet soon which we hope will be successful. Having said that, we fully expect that commissioning of this revised flow sheet will continue until we achieve the results we are looking for from both the copper and the zinc circuits in the plant.
So, commissioning is a process that takes time and involves testing a number of variables until acceptable, optimum results are achieved. We feel it would be unusual for us to report every step of the commissioning process along the way.
Because of the commissioning process (which involves as mentioned in the report, periodic interruptions with the mill) we could not resume shipping every 4 weeks. We expected (and continue to expect) that with successful separation of the zinc from the copper, the copper concentrate will have a higher grade.
vendredi 23 juillet 2010
Update on TVI
Vacations are over.
Time to get back to business.
First report is about TVI as August should be really interesting for this great profitable company.
I do expect a lot more $$$ invested in drilling and continuing prospection of new areas and it will be affecting net cash results. So i would not expect TVI to pile up cash like hell but invest a lot to increase mine life and into new projects.
About mine life, if i am correct, most of the junior mining companies see their shares climb based ONLY on future prospects and potential and NOT from actual reserves or mine producing as the actuals are already cooked in the share price. (do not mix up with share VALUE). Share price reflects what investors or speculators wants to pay for any given company. In the case of TVI it is by far under evaluated but market is the market and there is not a lot we can do except if every one of us would go out and buy another 50,000 shares...;). And then 1 day it JUMP wihtout notice or apparent reasons.
As for zinc, it is coming. They will need a new take off agreement that i suspect is negoticated at this time and awaiting final lab testing to be confirmed as nobody would want to sign a take off agreement without any prodcut to ship! That would be a mistake and TVI will not do that.
One final note regarding copper. At these prices TVI could earns as much as last year even when the shipments are moved from 4 to 6 weeks. Price is offsetting that. Also, by spreadinng shipments by a 50% decrease in time, it is increasing mine life and having not to pay the extreme $$$ to the infamous loan (that avoided bankruptcy..) they can for the same price increase drilling and exploration.
So future is still very bright ahead and coming months will be interesting. Let's stay positive and imagine the impact on share VALUE from great Balabag results (mountain did not move i am sure. See Lafleur report 43-101 especially page 72 (here is the link)
http://www.tvipacific.com/Theme/TVI/files/doc_financials/Balabag+Resource+Estimate.pdf
adding up some zinc and copper price increase.
It is very hard to imagine that nobody will see the real potential of this great mining company.
Have a good one.
Time to get back to business.
First report is about TVI as August should be really interesting for this great profitable company.
I do expect a lot more $$$ invested in drilling and continuing prospection of new areas and it will be affecting net cash results. So i would not expect TVI to pile up cash like hell but invest a lot to increase mine life and into new projects.
About mine life, if i am correct, most of the junior mining companies see their shares climb based ONLY on future prospects and potential and NOT from actual reserves or mine producing as the actuals are already cooked in the share price. (do not mix up with share VALUE). Share price reflects what investors or speculators wants to pay for any given company. In the case of TVI it is by far under evaluated but market is the market and there is not a lot we can do except if every one of us would go out and buy another 50,000 shares...;). And then 1 day it JUMP wihtout notice or apparent reasons.
As for zinc, it is coming. They will need a new take off agreement that i suspect is negoticated at this time and awaiting final lab testing to be confirmed as nobody would want to sign a take off agreement without any prodcut to ship! That would be a mistake and TVI will not do that.
One final note regarding copper. At these prices TVI could earns as much as last year even when the shipments are moved from 4 to 6 weeks. Price is offsetting that. Also, by spreadinng shipments by a 50% decrease in time, it is increasing mine life and having not to pay the extreme $$$ to the infamous loan (that avoided bankruptcy..) they can for the same price increase drilling and exploration.
So future is still very bright ahead and coming months will be interesting. Let's stay positive and imagine the impact on share VALUE from great Balabag results (mountain did not move i am sure. See Lafleur report 43-101 especially page 72 (here is the link)
http://www.tvipacific.com/Theme/TVI/files/doc_financials/Balabag+Resource+Estimate.pdf
adding up some zinc and copper price increase.
It is very hard to imagine that nobody will see the real potential of this great mining company.
Have a good one.
samedi 10 juillet 2010
Welcome to CMFO to my top list for 2010
With a market in great expansion and a pe just over 7, i expect a great return from this one in 2010.
mardi 29 juin 2010
MARKET UPDATE
Oufff what a day.
May sounds strange but i was awating that day. THis is the kind of day when many just throw the towel away and it is a good sign indeed.
If tomorrow starts with a very bad downward trend, hand in there the recovery will be as stiff as the descend.
Rememebr also that you have not loose anything unless you sell at these basement bargain price.
Rememeber it is time to go shopping not the opposite. When every one is elling it is time to buy and the opposite is also true.
Hang in there, it is almost done.
May sounds strange but i was awating that day. THis is the kind of day when many just throw the towel away and it is a good sign indeed.
If tomorrow starts with a very bad downward trend, hand in there the recovery will be as stiff as the descend.
Rememebr also that you have not loose anything unless you sell at these basement bargain price.
Rememeber it is time to go shopping not the opposite. When every one is elling it is time to buy and the opposite is also true.
Hang in there, it is almost done.
lundi 28 juin 2010
ALERT TVI
TVI has repaid their long term loan and convert some to a much acceptable level of interest (4.5% instead of 25%)
Within some time it means that TVI will be trading at about their cash level and that being the case, ti si a great opportunity if you are still under 10% of your portfolio in that stock.
Within some time it means that TVI will be trading at about their cash level and that being the case, ti si a great opportunity if you are still under 10% of your portfolio in that stock.
vendredi 25 juin 2010
WELCOM KBH to long term growth
Welcome KBH to my list of long term growth.
First increase in home unit sales since 14 quarters. I exect a steady but slow recovery untill Q4 2011 and a price target of 24$ in Q4 2011 for a 225% return in 18 months.
First increase in home unit sales since 14 quarters. I exect a steady but slow recovery untill Q4 2011 and a price target of 24$ in Q4 2011 for a 225% return in 18 months.
ALERT SSS
Well, news was kind of things that we already knew. The only difference is the payroll elimination announced that nobody expected.
It is showing a great dose of good corporate business sense and it showes that they do believe in their new drug. But at the same time company is now kind of a ghost one.
This is now more speculative than ever: meeting with fda about a phase 3 has probably a 50 50 chance of approval but not enough money to do it all by themselves.
This would probably means more financing coming and more dilution.
So after review, SSS will stay on my speculative play for the year and as usual whenever profit is made on those spec play, you take the money anad run.
Never forget rule #1 NEVER INVEST MORE THAN WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
It is showing a great dose of good corporate business sense and it showes that they do believe in their new drug. But at the same time company is now kind of a ghost one.
This is now more speculative than ever: meeting with fda about a phase 3 has probably a 50 50 chance of approval but not enough money to do it all by themselves.
This would probably means more financing coming and more dilution.
So after review, SSS will stay on my speculative play for the year and as usual whenever profit is made on those spec play, you take the money anad run.
Never forget rule #1 NEVER INVEST MORE THAN WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
jeudi 24 juin 2010
ALERT SSS
SSS has been halted this morning at the company request for pending news.
I am not aware of the exact reason but whenever there is a halt it must be of importance relating to the company. For example, to repeat that phase 2 was not conclusive is not a reason for halt as it has already been disclosed.
Halting to mention they will continue to phase3 is not neede either as it was already disclosed.
So what is left:
- found out an error in the placebo dat ? maybe
- new financing coming? possibility
- new partnership with pharma corp ? could be
- extending warrants ? good possibility
- Partnership realated to new patent obtained recently about 'Oligodendrocyte Production from Multipotent Neural Stem Cells' ? May really well be
As you can see what ever the news is it seems to me that it is going to be positive. SO get ready for a great thursday!
I am not aware of the exact reason but whenever there is a halt it must be of importance relating to the company. For example, to repeat that phase 2 was not conclusive is not a reason for halt as it has already been disclosed.
Halting to mention they will continue to phase3 is not neede either as it was already disclosed.
So what is left:
- found out an error in the placebo dat ? maybe
- new financing coming? possibility
- new partnership with pharma corp ? could be
- extending warrants ? good possibility
- Partnership realated to new patent obtained recently about 'Oligodendrocyte Production from Multipotent Neural Stem Cells' ? May really well be
As you can see what ever the news is it seems to me that it is going to be positive. SO get ready for a great thursday!
lundi 21 juin 2010
NEW PLAY
Glad to add this morning ESPH a new play with a great name: Jacques COusteau.
Check it out as i think it is well fitted in the actual BP scandal spill.
As usual do your own DD and NEVER invest more than what you could loose.
Check it out as i think it is well fitted in the actual BP scandal spill.
As usual do your own DD and NEVER invest more than what you could loose.
vendredi 18 juin 2010
MARKET UPDATE
It is very quiet indeed...Stock is getting ready to make a move and awaits the next good news.
This week labour numbers were not as good as expected and even then, stock continued to rally a bit.
So get ready for last minute shopping at good discount price. Next big move is coming.
This week labour numbers were not as good as expected and even then, stock continued to rally a bit.
So get ready for last minute shopping at good discount price. Next big move is coming.
jeudi 10 juin 2010
Update MARKET
As expected market did rebound. Those of you who did some shopping at basement price get ready to take some profit just in case there are more bumps ahead (there should be some next week).
Beg of July expect a complete update on all top picks and their relative position in my 2010 picks portfolio
Beg of July expect a complete update on all top picks and their relative position in my 2010 picks portfolio
mardi 8 juin 2010
ALERT SSS
New patent pending granted. In normal times, this company would have been 10-20% higher on that new but in thes very sad times for SSS nothing is certain.
Those interested in pharma should have good reads about the scale on which the results were explained. THere is a possibility that numbers were too high for the placebo or patients receiving the placebo were not in the same health condition as the placebo;s one.
Complete results should be available within 3 weeks.
Those interested in pharma should have good reads about the scale on which the results were explained. THere is a possibility that numbers were too high for the placebo or patients receiving the placebo were not in the same health condition as the placebo;s one.
Complete results should be available within 3 weeks.
MARKET UPDATE
Could it be the end signal to this correction?
If not, we should be near as most of my top 2010 picks are now in the oversold territory.
Stay calm and continue this great discount buying opportunity.
Never invest more than what you can afford to loose.
If not, we should be near as most of my top 2010 picks are now in the oversold territory.
Stay calm and continue this great discount buying opportunity.
Never invest more than what you can afford to loose.
dimanche 6 juin 2010
UPDATE DND
The appeal against DND was rejected thus minimizing the possibility of further court actions.
With that decision and the fact that they have a product ready to be launched in the USA DND is no a longer a speculative play but now part of my TOP PICKS for 2010.
They will receive more upfront payments from Ranbaxy (up to 23M$ before and after launch) and some royalties from the sales in USA and territories.
Also to be noted is that other expenses will also be reimbursed by Ranbaxy. DND has actually about 9M$ in their bacnk account and when you add the payments that should be paid this year, DND could end up Q4 with 20M$ in the bacnk almost a 1 for 1 ration to their share actual value.
Just that fact alone could boost the shares to well over 3$ before year end for a whoppping 300% return.
As usual, DO NOT INVEST more than what you can afford to lose.
With that decision and the fact that they have a product ready to be launched in the USA DND is no a longer a speculative play but now part of my TOP PICKS for 2010.
They will receive more upfront payments from Ranbaxy (up to 23M$ before and after launch) and some royalties from the sales in USA and territories.
Also to be noted is that other expenses will also be reimbursed by Ranbaxy. DND has actually about 9M$ in their bacnk account and when you add the payments that should be paid this year, DND could end up Q4 with 20M$ in the bacnk almost a 1 for 1 ration to their share actual value.
Just that fact alone could boost the shares to well over 3$ before year end for a whoppping 300% return.
As usual, DO NOT INVEST more than what you can afford to lose.
vendredi 4 juin 2010
UPDATE on TVI
Finding a gem in the Philippines
After reviewing Q1 results from TVI Pacific (tsx: TVI), the AGM webcast and the Q&A session, many things are exceptional about this small but so profitable mining company.
Sure copper did take a beating recently as did zinc.
Sure TVI Q2 results could be lower than Q1.
Sure that the new zinc circuit is still in the adjustment phase
Sure the daily share volume is not there actually as if nobody wanted to buy and nobody wanted to sell (not a bad thing by itself…)
Sure China seems to be lowering growth expectations
Sure that the many presentations around the globe has not given the expected results (it take some time to decide an investment in a mining company)
Sure that remaining mine life is about 3 years and 2 really profitable
BUT:
How many times have you been able to buy shares in a mining company for about the same as cash generated (using 4 X Q1 results) ?
Q1 net earnings results are not due to any 1 time event: no particular credits, no tax rebates etc. No, they have earned every penny by mining in their Canatuan property and keeping their cost per ton very very low.
How about also a company with only about 10M$ in debt: 4M$ in a high interest loan (should be repaid in Q2 or Q3 maximum) and near 6M$ with a bank loan with an interest close to 4%?
How about a company with over 16M$ in the bank (end of Q1 2010) ready to either pay everything off or do some acquisitions in the Philippines?
How about a company actually at the end of a 4 months drilling program to confirm gold presence in Balabag (100% owned by TVI) with results soon to be released?
How about a company that has signed an agreement with DCMI (one of the major Philippine Company operating in many areas) to develop near Canatuan property in a JV form agreement?
How about a company that has so many properties or mining right that they cannot drill them all right now by themselves?
How about a company that can move around from bankruptcy (or close to) and become, within 1 year, a very highly profitable corporation?
How about a company that has a facebook site and corporate web site so complete that nothing is hidden anywhere and any questions can be asked and answered at any time?
How about company making copper shipments almost months after months on a very regular basis?
How about a production cost per ton of close than 0,60 cents?
How about 0,10 cents per share and a market cap of 49M$ when revenues will be close to 80-100M$ ?
Is that possible at all? Yes it is and it is the story of TVI Pacific lead by Mr Clifford James.
This little (but very profitable) company was facing bankrupt in early 2009 when they were able to obtain the necessary credits to go ahead with their Canatuan copper circuit that was commissioned in march 2009 and shipments started in April of the same year. Since that time 15 shipments have been realized and profit is absolutely incredible. In early 2009 plan was to get about 3M$ in revenue per month but ramping up production and keeping cost down made TVI able to get revenues over 26M$ in the last quarter and a very profitable 3months with 8M$ in net profit even when amortization of loan was taken into account (paying off debt earlier than expected forced TVI to recalculate their original loan expenses on a yearly basis instead of a 5 year term). Without that recalculation net profit would have been over 10M$ IN ONLY 3 months. If this is not performance I am wondering what could be…
So what’s missing?
Mine life extension: How about the zinc circuit coming operational soon with a take-off agreement very profitable?
How about Canatuan expansion with Dacon? Are they not the experts in road, bridges, almost all kind of infrastructure so dearly needed to access those hard to reach areas?
How about Balabag where maybe close to 1M ounces of gold will be proven? Is this not close to 1B$ (1000 million dollar$ project)
How about jv ventures to explore the lands where mega budget are needed?
Why not partnerships with a company like Xstrada to join TVI in developing some areas?
It could be just plain speculation from my part but could you imagine the result on the share value?
Honk Kong Listing Why not? Do you really believe TVI has all the audience in Canada they deserve? Who care about a Canadian company operating in the Philippines? Do they know that Philippines are one of the biggest resources area and most of it NOT being mined? I would bet that the mentality in Asia is a lot more investment based than speculation…What would be an initial IPO in Hong Kong: 50M$, 100M$ or a regional listing for Canadian shares? Had you had a look recently on the way foreign company listed in Hong Kong have been received? Well a lot better than we do with our own companies. My impressions are they know more about finance than we do. Maybe it is also a difference in the mentality. Maybe they know where they want to go but also knows the time needed to get there.
It is fascinating to see many companies with share price based solely upon expectations and speculation. They have neither revenues nor profit but they still manage to have sometimes their share valued higher than a company like TVI. They climb really high really fast then the drop like a rock when they find out nothing was to be drilled out there. They sometimes look like some gas and oil drilling companies promising to drill so many barrels per day that they will all become billionaires and end up finally with not even oil enough to fill a lighter…(I can name a few but will restraint myself..)
Maybe our way to evaluate a company is more from a speculative view than financial reviews…Maybe it is time to even evaluate our own analysts…Maybe it’s time to evaluate our own way of investing (or the radical definition of investment).
But in the stock market business you always like to find a great company before everybody else ear about them and in my humble opinion, that is the case for TVI Pacific. A perfect company for an investment in Asia where the money is, where the resources are and where the people have the ‘know-how’ to be profitable.
To me TVI was, is and will still be one of my favourite pick for 2010 and unless something dramatic happen, it will also be for 2011 as I think their future is a lot brighter than their past and with all projects underway, one will someday catches a lot more attention and guess what: share value will sky rocket.
So this deal on share is ‘WHILE QUANTITY LAST. SORRY NO RAINCHECKS…’
After reviewing Q1 results from TVI Pacific (tsx: TVI), the AGM webcast and the Q&A session, many things are exceptional about this small but so profitable mining company.
Sure copper did take a beating recently as did zinc.
Sure TVI Q2 results could be lower than Q1.
Sure that the new zinc circuit is still in the adjustment phase
Sure the daily share volume is not there actually as if nobody wanted to buy and nobody wanted to sell (not a bad thing by itself…)
Sure China seems to be lowering growth expectations
Sure that the many presentations around the globe has not given the expected results (it take some time to decide an investment in a mining company)
Sure that remaining mine life is about 3 years and 2 really profitable
BUT:
How many times have you been able to buy shares in a mining company for about the same as cash generated (using 4 X Q1 results) ?
Q1 net earnings results are not due to any 1 time event: no particular credits, no tax rebates etc. No, they have earned every penny by mining in their Canatuan property and keeping their cost per ton very very low.
How about also a company with only about 10M$ in debt: 4M$ in a high interest loan (should be repaid in Q2 or Q3 maximum) and near 6M$ with a bank loan with an interest close to 4%?
How about a company with over 16M$ in the bank (end of Q1 2010) ready to either pay everything off or do some acquisitions in the Philippines?
How about a company actually at the end of a 4 months drilling program to confirm gold presence in Balabag (100% owned by TVI) with results soon to be released?
How about a company that has signed an agreement with DCMI (one of the major Philippine Company operating in many areas) to develop near Canatuan property in a JV form agreement?
How about a company that has so many properties or mining right that they cannot drill them all right now by themselves?
How about a company that can move around from bankruptcy (or close to) and become, within 1 year, a very highly profitable corporation?
How about a company that has a facebook site and corporate web site so complete that nothing is hidden anywhere and any questions can be asked and answered at any time?
How about company making copper shipments almost months after months on a very regular basis?
How about a production cost per ton of close than 0,60 cents?
How about 0,10 cents per share and a market cap of 49M$ when revenues will be close to 80-100M$ ?
Is that possible at all? Yes it is and it is the story of TVI Pacific lead by Mr Clifford James.
This little (but very profitable) company was facing bankrupt in early 2009 when they were able to obtain the necessary credits to go ahead with their Canatuan copper circuit that was commissioned in march 2009 and shipments started in April of the same year. Since that time 15 shipments have been realized and profit is absolutely incredible. In early 2009 plan was to get about 3M$ in revenue per month but ramping up production and keeping cost down made TVI able to get revenues over 26M$ in the last quarter and a very profitable 3months with 8M$ in net profit even when amortization of loan was taken into account (paying off debt earlier than expected forced TVI to recalculate their original loan expenses on a yearly basis instead of a 5 year term). Without that recalculation net profit would have been over 10M$ IN ONLY 3 months. If this is not performance I am wondering what could be…
So what’s missing?
Mine life extension: How about the zinc circuit coming operational soon with a take-off agreement very profitable?
How about Canatuan expansion with Dacon? Are they not the experts in road, bridges, almost all kind of infrastructure so dearly needed to access those hard to reach areas?
How about Balabag where maybe close to 1M ounces of gold will be proven? Is this not close to 1B$ (1000 million dollar$ project)
How about jv ventures to explore the lands where mega budget are needed?
Why not partnerships with a company like Xstrada to join TVI in developing some areas?
It could be just plain speculation from my part but could you imagine the result on the share value?
Honk Kong Listing Why not? Do you really believe TVI has all the audience in Canada they deserve? Who care about a Canadian company operating in the Philippines? Do they know that Philippines are one of the biggest resources area and most of it NOT being mined? I would bet that the mentality in Asia is a lot more investment based than speculation…What would be an initial IPO in Hong Kong: 50M$, 100M$ or a regional listing for Canadian shares? Had you had a look recently on the way foreign company listed in Hong Kong have been received? Well a lot better than we do with our own companies. My impressions are they know more about finance than we do. Maybe it is also a difference in the mentality. Maybe they know where they want to go but also knows the time needed to get there.
It is fascinating to see many companies with share price based solely upon expectations and speculation. They have neither revenues nor profit but they still manage to have sometimes their share valued higher than a company like TVI. They climb really high really fast then the drop like a rock when they find out nothing was to be drilled out there. They sometimes look like some gas and oil drilling companies promising to drill so many barrels per day that they will all become billionaires and end up finally with not even oil enough to fill a lighter…(I can name a few but will restraint myself..)
Maybe our way to evaluate a company is more from a speculative view than financial reviews…Maybe it is time to even evaluate our own analysts…Maybe it’s time to evaluate our own way of investing (or the radical definition of investment).
But in the stock market business you always like to find a great company before everybody else ear about them and in my humble opinion, that is the case for TVI Pacific. A perfect company for an investment in Asia where the money is, where the resources are and where the people have the ‘know-how’ to be profitable.
To me TVI was, is and will still be one of my favourite pick for 2010 and unless something dramatic happen, it will also be for 2011 as I think their future is a lot brighter than their past and with all projects underway, one will someday catches a lot more attention and guess what: share value will sky rocket.
So this deal on share is ‘WHILE QUANTITY LAST. SORRY NO RAINCHECKS…’
jeudi 3 juin 2010
MARKET UPDATE
New base has been established and will be confirm by tomorrow june 4th trading.
From that point (if confirmed) expect a good leg up before end of month where i would not be surprised to recoop all from the last month correction.
Looking for a long term great stock: Ford (F: nyse) is probably a very good play for the next 24 months. Under 12$ now i expect close to 20$ within the next 12 months or sooner if world wide economy problems seem to get a fix.
I am now adding Ford to my long term play.
From that point (if confirmed) expect a good leg up before end of month where i would not be surprised to recoop all from the last month correction.
Looking for a long term great stock: Ford (F: nyse) is probably a very good play for the next 24 months. Under 12$ now i expect close to 20$ within the next 12 months or sooner if world wide economy problems seem to get a fix.
I am now adding Ford to my long term play.
S'abonner à :
Messages (Atom)